NFL Week Six Preview

IND @ HOU

IND -3

46

Houston has given Indianapolis trouble the last few times they’ve played in Reliant Stadium, but the Colts know what’s on the line. Despite being an early-season game, this matchup will be huge in determining the eventual AFC South champion. Indy didn’t impress in their win over the Ravens, so I expect their offense to have a much better game against Houston. Plus all of the Thursday night games have been blowouts thus far in 2014. Houston is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 against the Colts at home, but only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games overall. Indy is 9-1 ATS on Thursdays and has played 7 of 8 Over on the road and 7 of 9 Over in Houston.

Pick: IND -3. Colts win 38-20 (Over)

JAX @ TEN

TEN -6

N/A

The Jaguars have to win a game at some point, but after the Titans’ heartbreaking loss to the Browns, I doubt Tennessee is where they’ll get it. That said, it could be close.

Pick: JAX +6. Tennessee wins 17-13 (Under)

DET @ MIN

DET -1.5

N/A

This spread seems small, but I suppose the Vikings have been tough to figure out. I’ll assume their large point performance against Atlanta was related more to the Falcons’ woes on the road than to the Vikings’ ability to play well at home.

Pick: DET -1.5. Lions win 31-14 (N/A)

DEN @ NYJ

DEN -8

48

The Jets may play “OK”, but there is no way they can score more than Peyton. Denver is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 against losing teams and the Jets are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 against the Broncos. Denver has played 4 of 5 Over against the Jets, but New York’s offense is in disarray. I doubt they’ll put up much of a fight.

Pick: DEN -8. Broncos win 28-10 (Under)

PIT @ CLE

CLE -1.5

47.5

Roethlisberger had a solid outing against the Browns in Pittsburgh, but Cleveland almost came back from a huge deficit once they figured out the Steelers’ defense. I expect this game to be lower scoring than the teams’ first meeting, but given these teams’ relative proximity in skill this season I expect a series split. That said, Cleveland has only beaten the Steelers in 2 of their last 22 meetings and is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. 4 of these teams’ last 6 meetings in Cleveland have been played Under, but Cleveland has played 9 of 13 Over against teams with winning records.  

Pick: CLE -1.5. Browns win 23-21 (Under)

GB @ MIA

GB -3

49

The Packers smoked the Vikings last Thursday Night and may be overconfident, especially coming into Miami against a Dolphins team that had a bye in week 5. That said, Miami will probably still lose. It’s hard to bet against Aaron Rodgers. If the O-Line holds up reasonably well the Packers should pull this one out. Oh, and Knowshon Moreno is still injured. Miami is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against Green Bay, but the Packers have only won 3 of the teams’ last 10 meetings. Then again, they’ve only played 3 times since 2002, so I’m not sure how much stock we should put in those stats. The teams have played 7 of 9 Under, but Green Bay has played 5 of 6 road games Over.

Pick: GB -3. Packers win 24-17 (Under)

CAR @ CIN

CIN -7

44

This is a tough pick, as Carolina could give the Bengals a run for their money and keep this game close, even though Cincy is hungry to prove that last week’s blowout loss in New England was a fluke. Then again, Carolina is still without Williams and Tolbert, and Stewart is still “questionable”. With very little running game, I’m just not sure how Carolina will score any points. Cincy is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 home games and has played 4 of 5 Under.

Pick: CIN -7. Bengals win 24-10 (Under)

NE @ BUF

NE -3

45

Given the Patriots’ woes on the offensive line, I’m tempted to pick the Bills; they have one of the best D-lines in the NFL. Then again, the Pats always beat the Bills. Buffalo is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 against the Pats and have played 11 of 16 Under against New England in Buffalo.

Pick: NE -3. Pats win 24-13 (Under)

CHI @ ATL

ATL -3

53.5

Atlanta is significantly better at home, yet they still have no defense; so this one should be a shootout. Though both suffered tough losses last week, I think the Bears will be a little hungrier. I think that for absolutely no reason, so you may want to shy away from betting this game. It’s really a toss-up. The Over is a solid bet, though. Chicago is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Dome games and has played 11 of 13 Over against teams below .500. Atlanta is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 against the Bears and have played 9 of 12 Over at home.

Pick: CHI +3. Bears win 37-34 (Over)

WAS @ ARI

ARI -3.5

N/A

I have no idea who will be playing quarterback for the Cardinals, but they’ve looked pretty good through this point in the season. As long as Palmer or Stanton plays, the Cards should win. That said, Washington isn’t a terrible team and I expect them to put up a fight.

Pick: WAS +3.5. Cardinals win 20-17 (N/A)

BAL @ TB

BAL -3

43.5

Tampa is returning home after 3 straight on the road, so they could get a boost from the home crowd. For some reason, however, I feel like they’re going to totally crap the bed and get blown out. I have no basis for this feeling, but I’m going with my gut on this one. Tampa has only won 2 of their last 8 against the Ravens and the teams have played 5 straight Unders. That trend has to break sometime…

Pick: BAL -3. Ravens win 35-17 (Over)

SD @ OAK

SD -7

43

I don’t want to give the Chargers 7 points on the road. They’re playing well, but all of this “#1 in the power rankings” talk might get to their heads. Oakland has had a coaching change and is now playing for pride. When you start to make the game about “heart” and “pride”, you start getting an extra level of commitment out of your players. Plus Sparano is a weird dude and will probably throw some craziness into the playbook – like the Wildcat – that will confuse San Diego enough for the game to stay close. Oakland is only 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games against the Chargers, but San Diego is only 5-3 ATS after 2+ consecutive wins.

Pick: OAK +7. Chargers win 20-17 (Under)

DAL @ SEA

SEA -7.5

46.5

There is no spread big enough for me to pick Dallas in this game. The Cowboys are overachieving at 4-1 and will be falling back to earth immediately. Plus the Seahawks crush everyone at home. Seattle is only 2-5 ATS in their last 7 against Dallas, but they’re 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games. Seattle has played 6 of 7 home games Under and Dallas has played 4 of 5 Under on the road.

Pick: SEA -7.5. Seahawks win 37-17 (Over)

NYG @ PHI

PHI -3

50.5

This is another toss-up. The Giants have been playing strangely well, but they’re not very good; I expect them to start losing again soon. Philly is likely the team to beat in the NFC East, but they’ve had major issues playing “a full 60 minutes”. The Giants have only won 3 of their last 12 meetings with Philly, but the Eagles are only 3-6 ATS in their last 9 home matchups with NY. Philly tends to play home Overs (5 of 6), but the Giants and Eagles have been trending Under at the Link (4 of 5).

Pick: PHI -3. Eagles win 41-28 (Over)

SF @ STL

SF -3

43.5

St. Louis has no business competing in this game. So they will probably keep it oddly close. Thankfully for 49ers fans, San Fran really needs wins to compete with Seattle and will be playing with passion. St. Louis has covered 4 of 6 at home against the 49ers, but San Fran has been pretty good in domes (6-3 ATS last 9). The Rams have played 10 of 15 Over at home, but the Rams and 49ers have played 5 straight Unders at the Edward Jones Dome.

Pick: SF -3. 49ers win 21-16 (Under)

BYES: KC, NO