NFL Week Eight Preview

SD @ DEN

DEN -8

51.5

After a lopsided win over the 49ers, Denver may have a hard time reloading the rifle to take on the Chargers with only 3 days rest, especially with San Diego coming off a loss and looking to redeem themselves. Only one of these teams’ last 8 meetings was decided by more than 8 points, so going against the 8-point spread is as easy call. San Diego is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games and is 7-1-3 ATS in their last 11 games in Denver. The teams have played 4 of 6 Under, but the Broncos have played 10 of 13 Over against teams with winning records.

Pick: SD +8. Chargers win outright 24-21 (Under)

DET @ ATL

DET -3.5

47

Atlanta is far better at home than on the road, and Calvin Johnson is still banged up. The Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against Atlanta and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following 2+ consecutive wins. These teams have played 5 of 6 Under, but I doubt this one will be low scoring.

Pick: ATL +3.5. Falcons win 31-23 (Over)

MIN @ TB

TB -3

41.5

I’d like to think this would be a win for Minnesota, but Tampa has had an extra week to stew over their week 5 embarrassment at the hands of the Ravens. Plus the Vikings are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against Minny. The teams have played 5 of 6 Over in Tampa, and the Bucs have played 6 of 9 Over at home.

Pick: TB -3. Bucs win 27-17 (Over)

CHI @ NE

NE -5.5

50.5

This should be an interesting matchup. The Bears will be looking to get back into the picture in the NFC North after a bad loss to the Dolphins, and the Pats will be hoping to make a better impression after a close win over the Jets. The Pats could blow out the Bears, especially on the road, but for some reason I like Chicago to cover. They’ve actually looked pretty good on the road this season. The Bears have lost 6 of 7 to the Pats, but New England is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Chicago has played 5 of 6 Over on the road and the Pats have played 7 of 8 Over at home.

Pick: CHI +5.5. Pats win 30-27 (Over)

STL @ KC

KC -7

44

Each of these teams pulled a major upset last week over a Super Bowl contending opponent. I think Kansas City is less of a fluke, and - as long as they stick with their run game - should be able to hold down the Rams, Especially at Arrowhead. St. Louis has failed to cover in 5 straight against KC, but the Chiefs are a surprising 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a win within their division and have played 4 of 5 road games Under. Kansas City has played 17 of 25 Under at home.

Pick: KC -7. Chiefs win 28-13 (Under)

SEA @ CAR

SEA -5

45

After an embarrassing loss to the Packers, I expect Carolina to respond. Then again, after an embarrassing loss to the Rams, Seattle damn well better figure some things out as well. Carolina is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 home games but only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against Seattle. The Panthers have played 9 of 13 Under at home and Seattle has played 5 of 7 Under against the NFC South.

Pick: CAR +5. Seattle wins 13-10 (Under)

BUF @ NYJ

NYJ -3

40.5

Buffalo hasn’t beaten the Jets in New Jersey in 5 years, the Jets are 1-6 and hurting for a win, and the Bills are without Spiller and Jackson; none of which sounds promising for the Bills. I’d like to think Anthony Dixon can carry the load, but given the Bills’ woes against the Jets (3-6 ATS last 9) this game sets up well to be win #2 for New York. The Jets have failed to cover in 4 straight home games and 3 straight games as a favorite. 5 of these teams’ last 6 meetings in Jersey have gone Over, but the Bills have played 5 of 7 Under on the road.

Pick: NYJ -3. Jets win 24-20 (Over)

MIA @ JAX

MIA -6

43

This spread seems big, especially considering that the Jaguars got a win last week. Then again, Posluszny is out, Lewis is out, and the Jags were probably only destined to get one win anyway. These teams have played 4 of 5 Under, and the Jags are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.

Pick: MIA -6. Dolphins win 23-13 (Under)

HOU @ TEN

HOU -2.5

42

I’m not sure what to make of Houston, but I have to believe they’re good enough to beat the Titans by at least a field goal, especially after a tough loss to Pittsburgh on Monday night. Plus Clowney might be back, which will mean Locker – or his backup – will spend most of the night on the ground. Tennessee is only 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against the Texans, but Houston is only 2-5 ATS after a Monday night game. These teams have played 6 of 8 Over in Tennessee, but I don’t foresee a shootout.

Pick: HOU -2.5. Texans win 27-16 (Over)

BAL @ CIN

PK

45.5

Cincy has lost two in a row and is hungry to get back in the win column, but they have significant injury issues. Plus the Bengals won the teams’ first meeting, so I have to assume the season series will be split. It’s rare for one strong team to sweep another, especially in the AFC North. Baltimore is 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 against Cincy and the Bengals are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 home games. Baltimore has played 10 of 15 Over within the division and the Bengals have played 6 of 9 Over at home.

Pick: BAL PK. Ravens win 20-17 (Under)

PHI @ ARI

ARI -3

48

Philadelphia has always been great after a bye week (18-9 ATS last 27), but they also tend to struggle when traveling out west. For example, their only loss this season was in San Francisco and they’re 3-6 ATS in their last 9 trips to Arizona. The Cards are strangely good against the NFC East (4-0 ATS last 4) and are having an awesome season. Philly has played 8 of 11 Over on the road and 7 of 10 Over in Arizona.

This is a really tough pick – I’ve already written and erased explanations for a pick in each direction. If you’re betting this game, just flip a coin.

Pick: ARI -3. Cards win 27-23 (Over)

IND @ PIT

IND -3

49.5

The Colts have been playing well on both sides of the ball, but I expect them to have a bad game in the next few weeks. That said, I don’t think it’ll be against the Steelers. Pittsburgh’s defense is just too shaky right now to expect them to stop Andrew Luck and the Colts’ balanced offense. Pittsburgh has won 8 of 9 at home against Indy and is 6-3 ATS in their last 9 against the Colts overall. Indy has played 8 of 9 Over on the road and these teams have played 5 of 7 Over against one another in Pittsburgh.

Pick: IND -3. Colts win 28-17 (Under)

OAK @ CLE

CLE -7

43

Cleveland should rebound from their poor performance against the Jaguars, but it’s possible the Browns will be the Raiders’ only victory as well. Cleveland is last in the league in run defense and Oakland has Darren McFadden and MJD. Cleveland is 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 against the Raiders and has played 4 of 5 Over at home. Then again, these two teams have played 5 of 7 Under.

Pick: OAK +7. Raiders win 23-17 (Under)

GB @ NO

NO -1.5

56

I still don’t fully believe in the Packers – especially after a blowout win boosted their confidence –but I am also completely “sold” on the Saints being far worse than expected. Their roster looks strong, but they simply can’t get it together on the field. Maybe Brees is too old? I have no idea. But it hasn’t been pretty, and I refuse to continue to hold them in high esteem unless they start blowing people out. New Orleans is 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 home games but hasn’t covered a spread yet this season. Green Bay is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 against the Saints and has played 6 of 7 Over on the road.

Pick: GB +1.5. Packers win 34-17 (Under)

WAS @ DAL

DAL -9.5

49

I still don’t understand how the Cowboys are good. The only difference between this year and 2013 is that Dallas has finally committed to the run. If that is honestly enough to make them a Super Bowl contender, every Cowboys fan should get a free kick to Garrett’s crotch for taking so long to figure that out. That said, NFC East games aren’t often decided by more than 10 points. Though that concept didn’t play out in my favor last week, I can’t pick against such a sound theory. After all, it’s the NFL; just because they’re the Redskins doesn’t mean they can’t hang with the Cowboys. The Skins have lost 15 of 18 in Dallas, but the Cowboys have only covered the spread once in the teams’ last 7 meetings in big D. The teams have combined to play 8 of 11 Under.

Pick: WAS +9.5. Dallas wins 20-13 (Under)

BYES: NYG, SF