NFL Week Five Preview

MIN @ GB

GB -8

47.5

Last week’s NFL slate was bat-crap crazy. I’m not sure what to think anymore. That said, I know Minnesota scored a ton of points against Atlanta’s defense and could do the same against Green Bay. I also know Green Bay housed the Bears and is feeling confident right now. Without knowing which way to lean, 8 points seems like a lot for Green Bay to cover. Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 trips to Green Bay but is 3-1 ATS this season and 2-0 ATS as a road underdog. These teams have played 5 of 7 Over and Minnesota has played two straight Thursday games Over.

Pick: MIN +8. Packers win 30-27 (Over)

CHI @ CAR

CAR -3

46

Chicago can score a ton of points and I simply don’t think the Panthers can keep up, regardless of how bad the Bears defense is. Carolina’s biggest strength is its running game, and with Williams and Tolbert out and Stewart banged up, that strength is now a weakness. That said, Carolina is 3-0 ATS in their last three games against NFC North opponents and Chicago is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Panthers. Carolina has played 6 of 8 home games under, but the Bears have played 7 of 8 Over on the road.

Pick: CHI +3. Bears win 24-13 (Under)

CLE @ TEN

TEN -2.5

44.5

The “rational” pick would be the Browns, as they’ve scored a lot of points this season and have played close games against solid teams. The “emotional” pick is Tennessee, as they’re hungry after 3 straight losses and should get a boost if Jake Locker returns to the lineup. Cleveland has also had a tendency to play down to their opposition in the past. I’m going to stick with the “rational” choice, mostly because the Browns are coming off a bye week. Cleveland has lost 7 of 10 against Tennessee, but the Titans have failed to cover the spread in their last 5 home games. Both teams trend toward the Over.

Pick: CLE +2.5. Browns win 27-21 (Over)

STL @ PHI

PHI -7

47.5

I’m not really sure how the Rams scored so many points against the Cowboys, but I doubt they’ll have a similar performance against the Eagles despite Shaun Hill’s probable return. Philly is still a little banged up along the offensive line, but I still expect them to cruise. They’re 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 against St. Louis and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against the Rams. St. Louis has covered two straight coming out of their bye week and is 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with winning records. Philly has played 4 of 5 home games Over but have played 6 of 7 Under at home against St. Louis.

Pick: PHI -7. Eagles win 34-10 (Under)

ATL @ NYG

NYG -4

51

I have no idea what the hell is going on with either of these teams. The Falcons have been terrible since beating the Saints in week 1, but my gut says they’re a solid team. They’re also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the NFC East and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 trips to visit the Giants. Both teams trend toward the Under, but my understanding of the game of football suggests the Over. Neither team has much of a defense.

Pick: ATL +4. Falcons win 38-27 (Over)

TB @ NO

NO -10

48

I’m starting to wonder if Drew Brees is still a capable leader. This team should be much better than they’ve showed through 4 weeks. That said, they’re 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 home games and with a 1-3 overall record should be extremely pissed off. That anger should manifest itself in a blowout win. If it doesn’t, I rescind my preseason statement that the Saints could be a Super Bowl contender. If they start 1-4, they won’t even make the postseason. These teams have played 9 of their last 11 contests Under.

Pick: NO -10. Saints roll 31-13 (Under)

HOU @ DAL

DAL -6

46.5

This game concerned me, as I’d really like to pick against both of these teams this week. At 3-1, both are overachieving a bit. Given Dallas’ defensive issues, however, a 4-1 Houston squad would shock me less than a 4-1 Cowboys squad. Dallas is 6-12 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite and has played 6 straight Overs after back-to-back wins. Houston is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games played on turf fields and has played 4 of 6 Over on the road.

Pick: HOU +6. Texans win 23-20 (Under)

BUF @ DET

DET -7

43.5

This pick hinges on whether or not Kyle Orton is going to be a good option for the Buffalo Bills. With the number of playmakers around him, I think he’ll be good enough to keep the starting job. But will he be good enough to win tough games? The Lions defense has been excellent this season and will put significant pressure on Orton. As long as he uses play-action to keep the pass rush honest, the Bills should keep this game close. Plus the Lions have failed to cover the spread in three straight games after 2+ consecutive wins. The Bills and Lions have played 5 of 6 Under and the Bills have played 5 of 8 Under after consecutive losses.

Pick: BUF +7. Bills win 24-23 (Over)

BAL @ IND

IND -3.5

48.5

Baltimore may be 3-1, but they were also the favorite in all four of those games. Steve Smith has been a great addition, but I still don’t see the Ravens as an “elite” team. Indy should win this game, even with significant injuries on defense. The Colts are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 against the Ravens (although the “1” came last year…) and are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite. Baltimore has played 4 of 6 Over and Indy has played 7 of 10 Over at home.

Pick: IND -3.5. Colts win 28-23 (Over)

PIT @ JAX

PIT -6

47

Had Pittsburgh not just blown a game against the freaking Buccaneers, I’d say this was an upset special. But there’s no way the Steelers are struggling enough to lose to the Bucs and Jags in back-to-back games. Jacksonville is terrible, but it’s in part due to injury. They’re missing their top four pass-catching options with Blackmon, Shorts, Lee, and Lewis all out. Pittsburgh is a disturbing 2-9 ATS in their last 11 trips to Jacksonville, but the Jags are just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 home contests. The Jags have played 5 of 6 home games Over but 6 of 8 Under against Pittsburgh.

Pick: PIT -6. Steelers win 23-10 (Under)

ARI @ DEN

DEN -7

48

If Arizona wasn’t 3-0, I’d suggest that they had the potential to pull the upset. They’re a very physical team and could manhandle the Broncos offensive line to get some pressure on Manning and keep him from shredding them to pieces. That said, Manning, after a bye week, at home…I mean…come on. Denver is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games but have covered 4 of 5 against the Cards. These teams have also played their last 5 matchups Over.

Pick: DEN -7. Broncos win 38-20 (Over)

KC @ SF

SF -6

44

San Francisco is better than their 2-2 record indicates and should beat the Chiefs. That said, it could be close. KC has covered 18 of 24 against the NFC West and has beaten the spread in 3 straight games as an underdog. San Francisco is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against KC but 7-2 ATS in their last 9 against AFC teams. KC has played 7 of 9 Under after consecutive wins and the 49ers have played 4 of 6 Under at home.

Pick: KC +6. 49ers win 18-13 (Under)

NYJ @ SD

SD -6.5

43.5

I’m not sure what to make of this game. Ryan Mathews is still out, but that hasn’t affected the Chargers much the last few weeks. The Jets could keep it close, but San Diego is awfully tough at home and should pull out a win. Though the Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against the Jets, New York has lost 5 of their last 6 road games. These teams have played 4 of 6 Over.

Pick: NYJ +6.5. San Diego wins 23-21 (Over)

CIN @ NE

CIN -1

46

If you think New England fans are ready to jump off a bridge now, with the Pats 2-2 and listed as a home underdog against the Bengals, just wait until they’re 2-3! Cincinnati has a strong defense and the Pats have no offensive line. It’s tough to out-coach your opponent when you simply don’t have the players to block…well…anyone. The Pats have failed to cover in 4 of 5 and are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 against Cincy. These teams have played Over in 4 of 6 and the Pats have played 5 of 6 Over at home.

Pick: CIN -1. Bengals win 27-13 (Under)

SEA @ WAS

SEA -7

45

Seattle plays better at home, but will still beat the Redskins after having an extra week to prepare. Expect Washington to play with heart, though, after being blown out by the Giants last week. The Skins are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 against Seattle and 9-16 ATS in their last 25 Monday night games. Seattle has played 4 of 5 Over in Washington but the Skins have played 8 of 11 Under after 2+ losses.

Pick: SEA -7. Seahawks win 24-13 (Under)

BYES: OAK, MIA