NFL Week Seven Preview

NYJ @ NE

NE -9.5

44

The loss of Jerod Mayo and Stevan Ridley is going to hurt the Patriots, who were already reeling a couple weeks ago due to offensive line issues. Just because they’ve put together a couple of wins doesn’t mean all is fixed in New England. The Jets have lost five in a row and will be playing for Rex Ryan’s job if things don’t improve quickly. I expect NY to put together a solid game plan and at least keep this game close. The Pats have only covered 6 of 19 spreads against the Jets at home but are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a win over a division rival. The Jets have only beaten the spread once this season, but I’d say they’re due. Both teams trend heavily toward the Over.

Pick: NYJ +9.5 Pats win 27-24 (Over)

CIN @ IND

IND -3

49.5

After two lackluster performances, Cincy’s defense should respond to the challenge of slowing down Indy’s #1-ranked offense. Though the Colts have been solid, I expect the Bengals to get back on track and to prove they’re among the NFL’s best teams in 2014. Indy has won 5 straight home games against the Bengals but is only 3-2 ATS in those games. The teams have combined to play 4 of 5 Under in Indy and the Bengals have played 4 of 6 Under on the road overall.

Pick: CIN +3. Bengals win 21-17 (Under)  

TEN @ WAS

WAS -5.5

46

Washington very well may win this game, but I can’t justify giving them 5 ½ points. As long as Locker plays, Tennessee will be in the game throughout. The Titans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 against the Skins and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games against NFC East foes. For some reason they play well against the NFC East. Tennessee has also played 4 of 5 Over against Washington and the Redskins have played 8 of 12 Over as a favorite.

Pick: TEN +5.5. Titans win 26-24 (Over)

MIA @ CHI

CHI -3

49

The Dolphins are a much different team without Knowshon Moreno. Even against a questionable Bears defense, I doubt they’ll be able to put up many points. Chicago is a stunning 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 home games and Miami has gone 12-9 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog. Chicago has played 4 of 5 Over at home but 5 of 7 Under against Miami.

Pick: CHI -3. Bears win 31-10 (Under)

CLE @ JAX

CLE -5.5

45

It’s a sad state of affairs when the Browns are favored to beat you by 5 ½ points in your own stadium. That said, this may be the week Jacksonville finally puts it all together. The Browns may have inflated egos after their blowout win against Pittsburgh, and Jacksonville has been scrapping along the last two weeks, narrowly losing to Pittsburgh and Tennessee. I doubt the Jags will go 0-16, and this is one of the few games they could win. Although the Jags are only 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 home games, Cleveland has only won 3 of 25 on the road. Cleveland has played 5 of 7 Over on the road and the Jags have played 5 of 7 Over at home, so it’s a good thing I was leaning toward a higher-scoring affair.

Pick: JAX +5.5. Jags win outright 34-24 (Over)

SEA @ STL

SEA -7

43

I wouldn’t want to stand in Seattle’s way right now. St. Louis doesn’t have much offense; they might not score a point this week. The Rams are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 against Seattle and the Hawks are 9-5 ATS in their last 14 against teams with losing records. St. Louis has played 11 of 16 Over at home, but the teams have combined to play 7 of 8 Under.

Pick: SEA -7. Seahawks win 24-0 (Under)

CAR @ GB

GB -7

49

Jonathan Stewart should be back for the Panthers, who have played surprisingly well in his absence. Green Bay might be without their two starting cornerbacks and haven’t been playing particularly well to begin with. After almost losing to Miami, I don’t see a world in which spotting the Packers a touchdown is a smart bet. The Pack have won 5 of 7 against Carolina, but the Panthers have covered 4 straight against the NFC North. Green Bay has played 4 of 6 Over at home, but the Panthers have played 5 of 7 Under on the road.

Pick: CAR +7. Carolina wins 23-16 (Under)

ATL @ BAL

BAL -7

49

Atlanta has been atrocious on the road. I’m also concerned that they’ve begun to doubt themselves after a 2-4 start, especially coming off of a disappointing, injury-plagued 2013 season. Baltimore is putting up some big offensive numbers and should be a playoff team. Steve Smith Sr. looks like the piece they were missing; expect the Ravens to keep the momentum gained after a lopsided win over Tampa Bay. Baltimore has won 20 of 25 at home and is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against Atlanta. The teams have combined to play 7 of 8 Under.

Pick: BAL -7. Ravens win 30-17 (Under)

MIN @ BUF

BUF -5.5

42.5

Minnesota has been getting beaten pretty soundly the last few weeks. No Adrian Peterson and a second-string quarterback are likely two of the major reasons why. The Vikings will face that same uphill battle against the Bills, who have a potent defense a strong home-field advantage. That said, I’m not willing to spot Buffalo 5 ½ points. The Bills are 4-7 ATS against teams with losing records and the Vikings are 6-2 ATS after 2+ consecutive losses. Buffalo has played 5 of 6 Under and the Vikings have played 5 of 7 Over on the road.

Pick: MIN +5.5. Bills win 23-20 (Over)

NO @ DET

DET -2.5

48

Hopefully New Orleans got their crap together during the bye week. This season has been embarrassing thus far for a team I expected to be a Super Bowl contender. They’ll get a Calvin Johnson-less Lions team this week and will hope to capitalize. I think the Lions are over inflated at 4-2, the Saints will thrive in the dome (even though it’s not THEIR dome), and New Orleans will prove that they figured some things out during their week off. Jimmy Graham may be out, but if Mark Ingram is back and can run the ball effectively, the Saints could get back to .500. The Saints have only covered 2 of 11 road spreads, but they’ve covered 3 straight against the NFC North and 4 of 5 against the Lions. Detroit has played 4 of 5 Under at home and the Saints have played 6 of 9 Under on the road.

Pick: NO +2.5. Saints win 20-14 (Under)

KC @ SD

SD -4

45

These teams frequently wage epic battles, and I doubt this game will be any different. San Diego is 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games following a division contest, but KC has failed to cover their last 2 games after a bye week. I think San Diego’s defense will respond after allowing 28 points to the Chargers last week, but the Chiefs may keep it close. The question is how close. The teams have played 4 of 5 Over, but I don’t anticipate a shootout.

Pick: SD -4. Chargers win 23-17 (Under)

NYG @ DAL

DAL -6.5

47.5

I still don’t believe in the Dallas Cowboys. Even a big win in Seattle and a 5-1 record won’t convince me that they’re a contender. They frequently play tight games against divisional opponents, and even with Victor Cruz out of the Giants’ lineup, I expect NY to give Dallas all they can handle. Dallas is 7-13-1 ATS in their last 21 games against the Giants and have played 5 straight home Overs against New York. The Giants are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 road games but 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in October.

Pick: NYG +6.5. New York wins 23-21 (Under)

ARI @ OAK

ARI -3.5

44

Unlike the Cowboys, Arizona may be for real. I trust Carson Palmer and believe the Cardinals have a nice balance between offense and defense. They’re just a solid football team. Arizona is only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against Oakland but is 8-4 ATS in their last 12 against teams with a losing record. Oakland has only covered 1 of 7 at home but has played 4 of 5 Over at home and 4 of 5 Over against the Cardinals.

Pick: ARI -3.5. Cardinals win 28-23 (Over)

SF @ DEN

DEN -6.5

49.5

If San Francisco wants to be considered among the league’s best, they’ll have a chance to prove they’re a contender on Sunday Night. I think the 49ers have too many defensive injuries to stop Peyton Manning from tearing them apart at home and lack the offensive balance to keep up. Denver is only 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against the 49ers and San Francisco is 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a Monday Night matchup. The 49ers have played 5 of 6 Under on the road, but the Broncos have played 13 of 19 Over at home.

Pick: DEN -6.5. Broncos win 34-26 (Over)

HOU @ PIT

PIT -3

44.5

Both teams sit at 3-3, so I have to ask myself which team I could more easily see at 3-4. That’s easy: Pittsburgh. They’re not playing very well, and even a Fitzpatrick-led offense should be able to beat them. Pittsburgh has won 6 of 8 at home but has failed to cover in their last 2 Monday Night Football appearances. Houston is also bad on Monday Night; just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 MNF games. The Texans have played 2 straight MNF Overs, but the Steelers have played 14 of 21 Under at home.

Pick: HOU +3. Texans win 21-13 (Under)

BYES: PHI, TB