NFL Week One Recap

Week One Picks: 8-8

Week One ATS: 7-7-2

Overall Picks: 8-8

Overall ATS: 7-7-2

This was a typical week one. Having not seen the teams play, I had an idea what might transpire, but didn't have the cojones to make the "big pick" I needed.

I wanted to take the Chiefs over the Chargers and the Redskins over the Cowboys...but I chickened out and only picked them to cover; not to win.

Speaking of knowing what you're talking about...two pushes this week(3 if the Bills hadn't gotten "creative"...) show that the oddsmakers have really done their preseason homework!

So much for offense

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

LINE: Saints -4.5

O/U: 48

My Pick: Saints -4.5. New Orleans by a touchdown at home, 31-24.

Result: Saints 19-14

I was right, but way off on the over under. Then again, so was everyone else.

Homers

ATLANTA FALCONS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

LINE: Falcons -2.5

O/U: 38

My Pick: Steelers +2.5. Pittsburgh wins its home opener 18-17.

Result: Steelers 15-9

I was dead on with this pick. You don't bet against the Steelers as a home dog in week one. You just don't. No need to worry in Atlanta, though, as they should still be a great team.

This is what happens when you pick the Raiders...

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ TENNESSEE TITANS

Line: Titans -6.5

O/U: 40.5

My Pick: Raiders +6.5. I can't believe I'm betting on the Raiders. Oakland wins outright, 24-20.

Result: Titans 38-13

The Raiders didn't just get beat. They got destroyed. I seem to have forgotten that Oakland only plays well against better opponents. Of course, the Titans also looked a LOT better than I thought they would.

So who won?

DETROIT LIONS @ CHICAGO BEARS

Line: Bears -6

O/U: 43

My Pick: Bears -6. Chicago doesn't blow up the scoreboard, but they handle the Lions O, 16-6.

Result: Bears 19-14

If I was going to lose this game to the spread anyway, I'd rather have seen the Lions win. Then again, they did win. But they're the Lions, and seem to have found a new, creative way to lose. Well done, Detroit.

Back to the old strategy...

DENVER BRONCOS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Line: Jaguars -2.5

O/U: 39.5

My Pick: Broncos +2.5. Denver wins outright 13-10.

Result: Jags 24-17

It only took the Broncos one week to force me to go back to my old "Denver picking strategy". From now on, I will simply pick the opposite of whatever makes rational sense when the Broncos are involved. You may laugh, but the past few years have proven this technique quite effective.

Big Blue's House

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ NEW YORK GIANTS

Line: Giants -7

O/U: 41

My Pick: Giants -7. New York opens its stadium in style, 27-10.

Result: Giants 31-18

With the Jets' loss, the G-men have, for the moment, taken ownership of their new palace. They looked pretty darn good, too.

Brown is the color of...

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Line: Bucs -3

O/U: 37

My Pick: Browns +3. Cleveland shows signs of life. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt until they lose it. Which will probably happen before week 2. Browns 23-21.

Result: Bucs 17-14

Tampa is young and has some talent. I should have realized that Cleveland would be one of their 3 or 4 wins on the year. But who does that leave for Cleveland to beat? By the way, I was totally right about Cleveland losing the benefit of the doubt before week 2...

No surprises

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ BUFFALO BILLS

Line: Dolphins -3

O/U: 38.5

My Pick: Dolphins -3. Miami wins 24-13.

Result: Dolphins 15-10

I'm a bit surprised at how bad the Dolphins offense looked, but the defense got the job done. Although the Bills' late game antics are the only reason Miami beat the spread.

It was bound to happen

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

Line: Colts -2.5

O/U: 46.5

My Pick: Colts -2.5. I expect both teams to light up the scoreboard, but the Colts will hang on 31-28.

Result: Texans 34-24

At 1-15 all-time against the Colts, you had to figure the Texans would get it done at some point. Peyton threw for a ton of yards, so obviously the Indy offense will be OK. Though they better get Addai on board if they want to be a powerhouse again.

Arian Foster showed that he has the potential to be a fantastic back in the NFL, and with Slaton behind him, the Texans are an offense to reckon with once again. If the defense plays well, they could get over the hurdle and make the postseason.

Deceptive Blowout

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Line: Pats -4.5

O/U: 45

My Pick: Bengals +4.5. Let's go with the trends! Cincy covers, but doesn't win. Pats 24-20.

Result: Pats 38-24

New England got out to a big lead, but their dismantling of the Bengals was deceptive. One touchdown was on defense; another on special teams. So their offense tied the Bengals at 24. But turnovers and special teams are a part of the game, and the Pats were clearly the better team.

Cincy needs to work on a few things, but they should still be able to reach 10 wins.

WHAT???

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Line: 49ers -2.5

O/U: 37.5

My Pick: 49ers -2.5. San Fran rolls 30-13.

Result: Seahawks 31-6

If I had to pick the week one game I was most confident in, it may have been this one. I didn't think this would be a contest. I need to re-evaluate how good the 49ers are, and obviously need to take a look at the Seahawks as well. Yikes.

He's Baaaack

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Line: Packers -2.5

O/U: 47.5

My Pick: Packers -2.5 But I think the Eagles will give them a game. Green Bay 24-20.

Result: Packers 27-20

I was bascially dead-on with the pick, but didn't realize Vick would be the one to make me look good. He makes the Eagles a better team. Either we need to see a lot of Vick from here on out, or we won't see any of Andy Reid next season.

Decent Debut

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

Line: Cards -4

O/U: 39

My Pick: Cards -4. Arizona wins 17-10.

Result: Cards 17-13

I was close. Oh well. Bradford looked ok and didn't make too many mistakes. I expect that to change. The Cards looked "iffy". I don't expect that to change.

HAHAHAHAHA...Idiots

DALLAS COWBOYS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Line: Cowboys -3.5

O/U: 40.5

My Pick: Redskins +3.5. Washington covers, but Dallas ekes out a late victory, 17-16.

Result: Redskins 13-7

Dallas beat themselves. The play before halftime was ridiculous. And they really need to stop taking penalties. Just awful. Both teams showed solid D, but I question the ability of either offense to carry their team deep in the playoffs.

Two good defenses, but only one passable offense

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ NEW YORK JETS

Line: Jets -2

O/U: 36.5

My Pick: Jets -2. New York gets off to a hot start, 20-14.

Result: Ravens 10-9

Both teams showed strong defenses, but the Jets' inability to capitalize on turnovers was simply inexcusable. They also refused to attack a weakened Ravens' secondary. At all.

If the Ravens D plays that well every week, they have enough offense to run the table. Seriously. But I assume the next opponent will be smart enough to attack their secondary.

I said the Chiefs were not to be overlooked...

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Line: Chargers -5

O/U: 44.5

My Pick: Chiefs +5. San Diego still wins 27-25.

Result: Chiefs 21-14

Kansas City's win doesn't surprise me, but the success of their defense does. The rain and wind helped, but they did a fantastic job against a very good offense. Don't get too crazy about the Chiefs, though. Their 2 offensive touchdowns were each on 3 play drives, and they sustained NOTHING otherwise.

San Diego looked a bit discombobulated. They need to sign the guys who are holding out. Now.