NFL Week Three Recap

Week Three Picks: 10-6

Week Three ATS: 10-6

Overall Picks: 29-19

Overall ATS: 22-23-3

Bengals Prowling

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

Line: Bengals -3

O/U: 38.5

My Pick: Bengals -3. Cincy wins 20-10.

Result: Bengals 20-7

I had that game pegged. Cincy may win 10 games this year if they keep playing well. Carolina will almost certainly lose 10 games.

For Real

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Line: 49ers -1

O/U: 36.5

My Pick: 49ers -1. San Fran is mad. Their emotion carries them to a 23-16 win.

Result: Chiefs 31-10

Wow. Kansas City is absolutely for real. I think they'll still miss the postseason, but they will probably be around 8-8, which is a heck of a lot better than anyone would have expected. San Fran is awful, and I'm embarassed to have expected them to be good.

Every Time

BUFFALO BILLS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Line: Pats -14

O/U: 42.5

My Pick: Pats -14. I'd rather be pleasantly surprised by the Bills than annoyed that they blew it again. New England wins 34-0.

Result: Pats 38-30

Every time there's a big spread, the Bills screw me. I never end up getting the ATS pick right, though the Bills generally do end up losing the game. Apparently Fitzpatrick is a better fit at QB. I would have never guessed that. He's still not a long-term solution, but at least they scored some points this week.

Of course, the title "Every Time" can also refer to how often the Bills lose to the Pats...

Young Rebounds

TENNESSEE TITANS @ NEW YORK GIANTS

Line: Giants -3

O/U: 42.5

My Pick: Titans +3. CJ runs wild and the Titans win 24-21.

Result: Titans 29-10

Tennessee looked very good in dismantling the Giants. Vince Young's mental state was never an issue. They could be quite good this year, but will always be a question mark due to their mediocre passing game.

What Happened to the Run D?

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

Line: Ravens 10.5

O/U: 37

My Pick: Ravens -10.5. Baltimore in a blowout, 41-10.

Result: Ravens 24-17

I thought Baltimore had a fantastic front 7...how the heck did Hillis run all over them for 144 yards? And where was the Ravens' passing game? This should have been a blowout. I have no idea what happened.

No way they were going 0-3

DALLAS COWBOYS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

Line: Texans -2.5

O/U: 47.5

My Pick: Cowboys +2.5. Dallas wins 27-23.

Result: Cowboys 27-13

Don't jump back on the bandwagon quite yet - Dallas did it once, but can they do it again? They obviously need to be up against some adversity (like an 0-2 start) to play well. I wonder if they'll continue to play with the intensity they had in week one, or will revert to the lifeless team we saw in weeks 1 and 2.

Also of note - no need to panic in Houston. They had a bad week, but are still a good team.

Back? Not really...

DETROIT LIONS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Line: Vikings -11.5

O/U: 42.5

My Pick: Lions +11.5. The Vikings are struggling offensively, but they'll win 20-10.

Result: Vikings 24-10

I tried to get too cute with this pick, and paid the price. As you can see, I wasn't far off. Minny didn't play great, and Favre still looked rusty. Minny is glad to get the win, but has to get it together during the bye week if they're going to compete in the division.

So Close

ATLANTA FALCONS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Line: Saints -3.5

O/U: 50

My Pick: Falcons +3.5. New Orleans wins by a field goal. Again. 27-24.

Result: Falcons 27-24

I almost called this pick exactly, but stupid Hartley couldn't make a freaking 29-yard field goal in OT. Atlanta didn't quite deserve the win, but now the NFC South race could get very interesting down the stretch. Both Atlanta and New Orleans are very good.

Charlie Batch? Really?

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Line: Line: Steelers -2.5

O/U: 33.5

My Pick: Steelers -2.5. Pittsburgh wins 16-7.

Result: Steelers 38-13

What a great game plan that was. Wow. Put in Charlie Batch and stretch the field? Who would have expected that? It certainly did work. Now for the real test - Can he stretch the field against Baltimore?

You should be ashamed of yourselves, Washington

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ ST LOUIS RAMS

Line: Redskins -3.5

O/U: 39

My Pick: Redskins -3.5. Washington doesn't blow the lead this week and wins 27-10.

Result: Rams 30-16

I actually watched this whole game. It was awful. Washington played like crap. How can they get so close to the endzone and have to settle for field goals every time?

The Redskins' D should be equally embarassed to have allowed the Rams to push them around. We'll see if they do any better next week against Philly. If not, it's going to be a long year in D.C,

Rolling along

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Line: Eagles -3

O/U: 44.5

My Pick: Eagles -3. Vick runs all over the Jags. Philly wins 30-17.

Result: Eagles 28-3

The Eagles' D played fantastic, and the Eagles are tied for the NFC East lead. With Kolb at QB, I expected them to finish in the NFC East cellar. Their 2 wins are against bottom-tier teams, though, so we'll know more after they host the Skins this week.

Indy Back on Track

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ DENVER BRONCOS

Line: Colts -5.5

O/U: 48

My Pick: Colts -5.5. Indy rolls 33-20.

Result: Colts 27-13

Indy may have faltered against Houston in week one, but they have been fantastic since. I'm not sure when they'll lose again, but I don't expect it to be soon.

What's up with the Raiders?

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

Line: Cardinals -4.5

O/U: 39.5

My Pick: Raiders +4.5. I didn't want to pick the Raiders again, but I don't see any way around it. Oakland wins 20-17.

Result: Cards 24-23

I was right that Arizona wouldn't blow out the Raiders, but was wrong on the outcome. I really thought the Raiders would be better this season. What's their deal? Oh yeah, I forgot - Jason Campbell is not good at football. He proved it in Washington, too.

Wow...

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Line: Chargers -5.5

O/U: 44

My Pick: Seattle +5.5. I'm going with the trends. But San Diego should still win 23-20.

Result: Seahawks 27-20

I have no idea what to make of the Seahawks, other than the notion that they're unstoppable at home and awful on the road. Granted they had 2 kick return TDs, so maybe this win was a bit of a fluke. San Diego is reeling. Look at their schedule - I'll bet 80% of the NFL thought they'd be 3-0. And they're 1-2. Wow.

Doin it with Offense

NEW YORK JETS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

Line: Dolphins -1.5

O/U: 35

My Pick: Jets +1.5. New York wins 23-17.

Result: Jets 31-23

The Jets' D didn't look as good as usual, but the offense was fantastic for the second week in a row, and Sanchez continues to look solid. The problem with picking the Jets is figuring out when the offense will not show up - because it's bound to happen a few more times this season.

Yellow Alert

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ CHICAGO BEARS

Line: Packers -3

O/U: 46

My Pick: Packers -3. Green Bay wins 19-13.

Result: Bears 20-17

The Packers managed to win the game for Chicago. Heck, they had so many penalties that they set a team record. Chicago isn't bad, but they're certainly not a Super Bowl team, so don't get too wrapped up in their early season results. Green Bay is still the best team in the NFC North.

The Bears, Steelers, and Chiefs are the only unbeatens left. It doesn't look like anyone will be challenging 16-0 this year!