With all of the injuries sustained in week one, the NFL's second week of play should be fun...and unpredictable! Since my job is to predict, I'll do the best I can.
BUFFALO BILLS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
Line: Packers -13
O/U: 43
The Bills looked pretty bad offensively in week one, but their defense was able to do a decent job of shutting down the Dolphins. That could be the Dolphins' own offensive futility, or it could actually mean the Bills' D is acceptable. I think it's the latter.
Green Bay's Super Bowl hopes may have flown out the door with the season-ending injury to workhorse tailback Ryan Grant, but they're still a darn good team. I was also unimpressed by the Packers' supposedly improved O-line, which was marginal at best against the Eagles.
Between the trends and the fact that the Packers are virtually without a run game from here on out, I'm tempted to pick the Bills to beat the spread. I'm just worried that the Bills won't score enough points to keep it within 13. Note: The game's outcome has never come into question; just the spread.
That said, enough things can go wrong for the Packers on defense and special teams to help the Bills beat such a large spread. Plus Buffalo has to be embarassed to be the season's first double-digit dog.
Trends: The Bills have played Under 5 of their last 6 against the NFC NOrth. Green Bay is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 against B-Lo.
My Pick: Bills +13. Green Bay wins 24-13.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ TENNESSEE TITANS
Line: Titans -5
O/U: 36.5
Did the oddsmakers smoke some rock prior to creating the line on this game? Yeah, it's in Tennessee, but the Titans aren't THAT good. And Pittsburgh beat a solid Falcons team last Sunday. This spread is way out of whack, and I have no choice but to pick the Steelers.
The idea of a spread is to create a point at which it's a 50/50 chance that the game will be played on either side of the created line. There is at LEAST a 60%+ chance that the Steelers win this game or lose by less than 5. Especially with Polamalu in there to plug up CJ's holes.
Trends: The past 4 meetings between these teams in Tennessee have been played Over. Pittsburgh hasn't beaten the spread in its last 5 September road games.
My Pick: Steelers +5. This spread is just too big. Steelers win outright 17-13.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS
Line: Panthers -3
O/U: 39
Tampa got a win in week one, but the Browns looked awfully bad. Carolina has a potent dual-pronged running attack, and I expect them to have success against Tampa's D. Even if Tampa drives the Cadillac all game long and gets great play from Josh Freeman, I see them going down.
Trends: 8 of the Bucs' last 10 trips to Carolina have been played Under. Carolina is 7-2 ATS n their last 9 at home against TB.
My Pick: Panthers -3. The trends continue. Carolina wins 24-13.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ CLEVLAND BROWNS
Line: Browns -2
O/U: 38
The oddsmakers did a good job on this line...despite the Chiefs' win, their offense looked awful, and their positive special teams plays can be negated by the Browns, who also have excellent special teams. I'm not exactly high on the Browns right now, but they know that their season will be a complete bust if they can't beat at least one of their first two "easier" opponents. I expect them to come out with the mentality that a loss is simply not an option.
The Chiefs are coming off of a big divisional win, and may falter against Cleveland. KC has the speed and talent to be dangerous, but I think the Browns' run D (namely Shaun Rogers) can keep the Chiefs' backs in check and shut down the KC offense.
Trends: All 4 meetings between these teams since 2002 have been played Over. The Chiefs have lost 8 of their last 9 September road games.
My Pick: Browns -2. I hate to take Cleveland again, but I really think they'll win. Browns 24-20.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ DETROIT LIONS
Line: Eagles -6
O/U: 41.5
Michael Vick looked fantastic last week against Green Bay. Just throwing that out there...
Both teams are forced to play back-up QBs due to injury, but Philly's problems only begin at the helm. Their outstanding fullback Leonard Weaver and a big piece of their O-line Jamal Jackson are both out as well. And they don't have a Vick-caliber back up at those positions.
So while I feel Shaun Hill will not have much success for Detroit, I worry that Detroit's solid front 4 will be able to put pressure on Vick and keep him in (or near...) the pocket, and that without Weaver the running game will suffer. 6 points is quite a big spread when the road team is favored.
At the end of the day, I think Philly has too much talent at the skill positions to be completely shut down on offense, and their defense should be able to handle Detroit.
Trends: The Eagles are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games against the NFC North. The Lions are 3-10 in their last 13 games against the NFC East.
My Pick: Eagles -6. I expect big things from Vick. Philly rolls 34-13.
MIAMI DOLPHINS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Line: Vikings -5.5
O/U: 39
Minnesota impressed me in their loss to New orleans, simply because Favre didn't look awful and the defense did a great job controlling one of the league's best offenses. Miami's offense looked sluggish in Buffalo, and the Vikings have a much better defense than the Bills. The big Williams boys down low won't be letting Ronnie and Ricky run wild.
Miami's defense looked OK, but I expect them to get exposed against Favre and Peterson. They really didn't get much of a challenge from the Bills, although their tackling was some of the best I've seen in a long, long time.
Trends: The Dolphins are 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 September road games. The Vikings are 3-1 in their last 4 against Miami.
My Pick: Vikings -5.5. Favre tears apart Miami and the Vikes roll 30-10.
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
Line: Falcons -6.5
O/U: 43
Less than a touchdown? Like taking candy from a baby...
Arizona looks awful, and generally plays like crap when they have to travel all the way to the east coast. Atlanta is a much better team than they showed last week, and will be out looking for redemption.
Trends: The Over is 6-1-1 in these teams' last 8 meetings. The Falcons have played to the Over in 10 of their last 12 September games.
My Pick: Falcons -6.5. Atlanta wins at home 27-14.
BALTIMORE RAVENS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
Line: Ravens -1.5
O/U: 40
This may be the most intriguing matchup of the week. The Bengals won both games against the Ravens last year, so you have to wonder if they may just know how to play (and beat) Baltimore. Then again, they beat the Ravens twice last year, so Ray Lewis and company will be out looking for blood.
Cincinnati didn't look like the hard-nosed grind-em-out squad that won 10 games last year - They looked a little soft. Cincy tends to ebb and flow, and after a playoff year I'm thinking they might be in for a tough campaign in 2010. But we'll see - Maybe they'll beat the Ravens this week.
Baltimore's defense looked fantastic this past Monday night. Then again, New York refused to challenge the Ravens' banged-up secondary, so it is possible that Carson Palmer, TO, and Ochocinco will be able to score at will. Cincy will be motivated, as they don't want to start 0-2. The Ravens will be motivated by their two losses to the Bengals last year. Which means Ray Lewis is angry. You don't want to play Ray Lewis when he's angry.
Trends: Cincy is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 against Baltimore. The Ravens are 1-4 ATS and SU in their last 5 against Cincy.
My Pick: Bengals +1.5. I just think Cincy has Baltimore figured out lately. And they're at home. Bengals 17-14.
CHICAGO BEARS @ DALLAS COWBOYS
Line: Cowboys -7.5
O/U: 40.5
Dallas looked AWFUL on Sunday Night. Just awful. Penatlies, dumb play calls, and more. Just a big ball of terrible.
Chicago didn't look a whole lot better. They barely beat Detroit, and that's if you think they should have won at all after the controversial call in the endzone toward the end of the game. If Detroit can move the ball somewhat effectively against the Bears, so can the Cowboys.
Not to mention, the Cowboys have to be PISSED. I'm sure they worked on not taking penalties all week long, and I doubt they'll have that issue again. Plus the Dallas D ain't no joke. I'd worry about the spread being more than a touchdown if it weren't for the Cowboy defense. I just don't expect the Bears to score many points.
Trends: 7 of these teams' past 9 meetings have been played Under. The Cowboys are 8-3 in their last 11 games against the NFC North.
My Pick: Cowboys -7.5. I hesitate to trust them Cowboys, but I don't think the Bears will score much. Dallas 17-6.
ST. LOUIS RAMS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS
Line: Raiders -3.5
O/U: 37.5
My thought on last week's Raiders debacle is that Oakland is a team that plays to its competition. In other words, I expect them to surprise good teams and lose to crappy ones. Then again, St. Louis is a little too crappy for my theory to work. Plus the Raiders have to be mad about week one.
They should take their frustrations out on Bradford and the Rams. Especially with Michael Bush back in the backfield (hopefully).
Trends: The Under is 8-1 in St. Louis' last 9 September road games. Oakland is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 September home games.
My Pick: Raiders -3.5. I'm picking Oakland 2 weeks in a row? It's a cold day in hell. Oakland wins 23-16.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ DENVER BRONCOS
Line: Broncos -3
O/U: 40
This game is anyone's guess. Seattle killed the 49ers last week, but are they for real? Denver flopped against Jacksonville, but they have the talent to step up big at any time. How much money do you win if you bet on a push against the line and are correct? I kinda want to try that. I wonder if they'd even let you.
The game is in Denver (where the air is thin...), I still think the Denver defense, even without Dumerville, has the ability to be quite good, and I have no idea what to expect from Seattle. Plus the Broncos are coming off a loss and will be pushing hard to get the home W, while the Seahawks may experience a hangover from their big win against San Fran.
I have talked myself into picking Denver, which means I have to go against rational thought and choose Seattle. Don't mock me; it's my process.
Trends: Seattle is 3-11 in their last 14 against Denver. The Broncos are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 against the NFC West.
My Pick: Seattle +3. It hurts to go against my gut on this one, but I have to say Seattle 23-13.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Line: Chargers -7
O/U: 45.5
The Jaguars might as well just stay home an forfeit. We all know San Diego has plenty of talent, and despite their questionable performance on Monday night, they'll be ready to play against the Jags. Merriman may be back, but even if he's not, nothing pisses off the Chargers more than losing to the Chiefs.
The Jags beat the Broncos last week, but they're the middle-of-the-road team in the AFC West. Now they have to deal with the Bolts - the AFC West's best. It'll be lights out for the Jags.
Trends: The Jags are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 September road games. All three meetings between these two teams have been played Over.
My Pick: Chargers -7. San Diego is mad; they take it out on the Jaguars 38-17.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ NEW YORK JETS
Line: Patriots -2.5
O/U: 38
The Jets are normally a nasty team, so coming off a loss, as home dogs, I expect them to be VERY ready to play. But do they have the talent to compete? New England looked awfully good in week one. Without Kris Jenkins, the Jets will have a harder time stopping the run. But New England doesn't run that much anyway. They're a pass-first offense.
I think last week was deceptive for both teams; the Jets are better than they looked, and the Pats aren't quite as good. I also have to take into account that, for some reason, these teams play really well in the other's stadium. So the road team may automatically have an advantage.
All rational thought says to go with the Pats, but I just don't see Rex Ryan and the Jets defense allowing that to happen when they're this angry. And when 0-2 could spell disaster for their supposed Super Bowl run.
Trends: New England is 10-1 against the spread in their last 11 trips to NYC. The Jets have played Over in 6 of their last 8 September home games.
My Pick: Jets +2.5. Heart beats brain in this case. We'll see if it works. Jets win 20-16.
HOUSTON TEXANS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Line: Texans -3
O/U: 43.5
The Texans looked awfully good against Indy, but the Redskins defense is significantly better than that of the Colts. McNabb and the Redskins O didn't do much against the Cowboys, but the Texans' D isn't nearly as good as Dallas'. Haynesworth is being a pain in the ass, but the distraction doesn't seem to be hurting the team too much.
I think the Redskins' defense will hold down Arian Foster and the Texans run game, and Schaub will be under enough pressure to make a mistake or two. McNabb will be better, as will Portis. If the trends are right, and the game is played Under the total, Washington could win. But I think Houston has just enough firepower to keep the state of Texas from being swept in D.C. in back-to-back weeks.
Trends: The Texans have played Under 5 of their last 6 against the NFC East. The Under is 8-2 the last 10 Redskins' September home games.
My Pick: Texans -3. Houston wins 27-17.
NEW YORK GIANTS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Line: Colts -5.5
O/U: 48
Round 1 went to older brother Peyton. Round 2 should go the same way. The Giants are coming off a big win at home in week one, but the loss of Kevin Boss will hurt their pass game a bit. The Bob Sanders injury is devastating for Indy, but they will be fired up after losing in Houston, and will be ready to get the season back on track with a win.
I expect Indy to win...but by how much? The Giants are good, so I doubt either team will run away with it. Neither has the explosiveness to score on special teams, so I doubt that will make up the difference. Anthony Gonzalez hurt himself in week one, which will affect the Colts passing attack, but I expect them to focus a little more on the run this week anyway.
Trends: The road team has won 4 of the teams' 5 meetings since 1990. The Colts have lost 3 in a row ATS at home in September.
My Pick: Giants +5.5. New York covers, but Indy wins 27-24.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Line: Saints -5.5
O/U: 44
The 49ers were embarassed last week, and should be out to prove themselves this week on Monday Night Football. Add to that the potential for New Orleans to be rusty after their extended layoff, and this could be a darn good game.
The Saints D looked good against Minnesota, but the offense had issues. I expect that some of the kinks have been worked out by now, and can safely assume that New Orleans will score at least 20 points in week 2. San Fran may be upset, but Seattle isn't that good. I just don't see them losing to the Seahawks and beating the Saints in a span of 8 days.
San Fran looked pretty bad, and with the Saints D playing well, they won't be lighting up the scoreboard against Nawlins.
Trends: The Saints are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 against San Fran. The last 6 games between these two teams in San Francisco were played Over.
My Pick: Saints -5.5. The 49ers have more work to do. The Saints "house" San Fran 45-10.
No comments:
Post a Comment