It can't get any worse than week 2...so here we go!
Note: I'll be adding comments from a friend of the blog, JC, whenever we disagree on a pick. This should provide some discourse and allow you to make better informed choices.
CINCINNATI BENGALS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS
Line: Bengals -3
O/U: 38.5
The general assumption would be that if Cincy's D can shut down Baltimore, they can sure as heck beat the 0-2 Panthers, who are starting Jimmy Claussen at QB. I don't see any possible way the general assumtion would be wrong, and I feel the line is absurdly small.
JC Agrees with my pick, but with the disclaimer that Jimmy Claussen gives Carolina a better option at QB than Matt Moore, and that the Cincy Pass D is a bit suspect. I disagree...they just shut down the Ravens' phenomenal passing attack, and had the league's #6 pass defense last season.
Trends: The Bengals are only 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 against the NFC South. The Panthers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 September home games.
My Pick: Bengals -3. Cincy wins 20-10.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Line: 49ers -1
O/U: 36.5
San Francisco stayed in it against the reigning Super Bowl Champs, and remains pissed off about its week one debacle. They won't go to 0-3, especially against a Chiefs team that has shown almost no offensive ability.
JC Takes Kansas City +1, as he is wary of the 49ers and feels "the Chiefs have played well of late and Matt Cassel has looked like a legitimate quarterback". I question whether or not JC has seen them play, as their offense hasn't been doing much of anything. It certainly could step up at any time, though.
Trends: The home team has won 7 straight meetings in this series and has been 6-1 ATS in those games. The Under is 7-1 in KC's last 8 September home games.
My Pick: 49ers -1. San Fran is mad. Their emotion carries them to a 23-16 win.
BUFFALO BILLS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Line: Pats -14
O/U: 42.5
The Bills are awful. The Pats are pretty good, and are going to rebound from a disappointing loss to the Jets. Plus the Bills never beat the Pats. Ever. Like, 1 for their last 19 Ever. That's absurd. Also, Ryan Fitzpatrick is starting. Nuff Said.
JC says "Duh" and takes New England.
Trends: The Bills have lost 18 of 19 (and 13 straight) against New England. 9 of the past 11 meetings between the two in New England have been played Under.
My Pick: Pats -14. I'd rather be pleasantly surprised by the Bills than annoyed that they blew it again. New England wins 34-0.
TENNESSEE TITANS @ NEW YORK GIANTS
Line: Giants -3
O/U: 42.5
The Giants will rebound from their blowout loss to Indy. Tennessee will rebound from its home loss to the virtually quarterback-less Steelers. But who will come out the strongest? Questions surround Brandon Jacobs' current mental state, but Bradshaw is more important anyway.
The Titans have problems of their own, after Young was pulled in favor of Collins last week against the Steelers. Vince's mental state has been an issue in the past, and I have no idea how he'll respond to this latest setback. But can the Giants' secondary come up to fill CJ's holes the way Polamalu and the Steelers' D did? The result of this game may hinge on that matchup.
Trends: The Titans have won and covered 4 in a row against New York. The Giants are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against the AFC South.
My Pick: Titans +3. CJ runs wild and the Titans win 24-21.
CLEVELAND BROWNS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
Line: Ravens 10.5
O/U: 37
There is no way in hell I'm picking the Browns for a third straight week. And the Ravens are ornery after last week's loss.
JC says "Ravens Ride Ray Rice Right Round Rogers".
Trends: The Browns are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last 4 against the Ravens. The Ravens are 7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 September home games.
My Pick: Ravens -10.5. Baltimore in a blowout, 41-10.
DALLAS COWBOYS @ HOUSTON TEXANS
Line: Texans -2.5
O/U: 47.5
Houston has looked good, and Dallas is totally out of sync. But I just don't see the Cowboys falling to 0-3. They're going to find a way to pull this one off.
JC takes the Texans -2.5. As an Eagles fan, he's seen the Cowboys play...and he's not impressed.
Trends: The Over is 5-1-1 the last 7 pre-bye games for Dallas. The Texans are 2-9 SU, 3-8 ATS their last 11 at home in September.
My Pick: Cowboys +2.5. Dallas wins 27-23.
DETROIT LIONS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Line: Vikings -11.5
O/U: 42.5
The Vikings haven't looked good enough to deserve such a lopsided line, especially against a team that has beaten the spread in its first two games. Detroit won't have such an easy time on offense against the vaunted Vikings D, but can the Purple Nurples score? They have no wide receivers.
JC thinks the Lions will win outright.
Trends: The Lions are 1-15 SU in their last 16 trips to Minnesota. The Vikings have played Over 8 of their last 9 pre-bye games.
My Pick: Lions +11.5. The Vikings are struggling offensively, but they'll win 20-10.
ATLANTA FALCONS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Line: Saints -3.5
O/U: 50
New Orleans may struggle without Bush, but they certainly do know how to win. Atlanta is coming off of a blowout win, and it may take them a quarter or so to get used to playing a decent team. If they get too far behind, they may not be able to catch up. It's also very hard to play in the Superdome. Nawlins does love Dem Saints!
JC Thinks the Saints will cover -3.5, because he feels Pierre Thomas will do a sufficient job in place of Reggie.
Trends: The Saints have won 7 of their last 8 against Atlanta. The Under is 10-1 in Atlanta's last 11 September road games.
My Pick: Falcons +3.5. New Orleans wins by a field goal. Again. 27-24.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Line: Line: Steelers -2.5
O/U: 33.5
Pittsburgh has no quarterbacks left. Which could be a problem. Normally I wouldn't hesitate to make this pick, but Tampa has been fantastic thus far. They haven't faced the Steelers' D, though. Charlie Batch should be good enough to get the Steelers 13-17 points, and I just don't think the Bucs will score much.
JC doesn't trust Batch, but can see no outcome other than a Steelers win.
Trends: The Steelers are 6-1 in their last 7 against TB. The Bucs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 pre-bye games.
My Pick: Steelers -2.5. Pittsburgh wins 16-7.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ ST LOUIS RAMS
Line: Redskins -3.5
O/U: 39
The Redskins blew it last week against Houston, and should be motivated to crush the Rams. St. Louis isn't all that good. McNabb makes the Redskins a viable offensive team, and the defense has been good for a while. They should be able to pull this one off without much difficulty.
Trends: The Redskins are 12-5 against the Rams since 1980. The Rams are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 September home games.
My Pick: Redskins -3.5. Washington doesn't blow the lead this week and wins 27-10.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Line: Eagles -3
O/U: 44.5
Vick makes Philly a better team, but they need to firm up defensively if they're going to compete in the NFC East. Jacksonville hasn't been good in a while. They still aren't. Philly should pull this off.
JC is an Eagles fan, so he's obviously going with Philly.
Trends: The Eagles are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 against the AFC South. The Jags are 3-0 SU and ATS all-time against the Eagles.
My Pick: Eagles -3. Vick runs all over the Jags. Philly wins 30-17.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ DENVER BRONCOS
Line: Colts -5.5
O/U: 48
Both teams looked solid last week, but there is no question that the Colts are for real and that the Broncos are not a playoff team. I'm picking with my gut this week, and will accept the ATS loss if Denver pulls off a miracle.
Trends: The Broncos are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last 6 against Indy, all 6 of which were played Over.
My Pick: Colts -5.5. Indy rolls 33-20.
OAKLAND RAIDERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS
Line: Cardinals -4.5
O/U: 39.5
I went with the Raiders 2 weeks in a row and lost, so I want to make a change. Arizona was embarassed last week, and will likely rebound with a strong effort. The Raiders play down to their lesser opponents, a category which includes the Cards. Arizona might just pull this one off. It may be by less than 4.5, though.
JC agrees that the Raiders will win outright.
Trends: The Raiders have won 4 of their last 5 against Arizona. The Cards are 0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 against the AFC West.
My Pick: Raiders +4.5. I didn't want to pick the Raiders again, but I don't see any way around it. Oakland wins 20-17.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Line: Chargers -5.5
O/U: 44
The Chargers looked great last week, and should carry their momentum into this game in Seattle. The Seahawks will respond after a bad loss last week, but I'm not sure it will be enough. Although they did play very well at home in week one.
Trends: The Chargers are 1-5 SU, 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 against Seattle. Seattle is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against the AFC West.
My Pick: Seattle +5.5. I'm going with the trends. But San Diego should still win 23-20.
NEW YORK JETS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS
Line: Dolphins -1.5
O/U: 35
Wait, the Dolphins are favored? They scored 15 agianst the Bills (13 on offense) and 14 against the Vikings (7 on offense). And now they play the Jets. Who have a really, really good defense. This could be the first week we see the Dolphins' D hiccup. They have been playing well, but I doubt that they'll continue to do so.
Sanchez looked better last week. I think their offense will be fine, though inconsistent. I'm banking on them being good this week on National TV.
JC agrees that the Jets will win, but feels it will be because the Dolphins' run game doesn't match up well against the Jets' strong front 7.
Trends: The Jets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 division road games. Miami is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 pre-be games.
My Pick: Jets +1.5. New York wins 23-17.
GREEN BAY PACKERS @ CHICAGO BEARS
Line: Packers -3
O/U: 46
Green Bay is good. But the loss of Ryan Grant will catch up with them against the league's better defenses, and I think Chicago's qualifies. Cutler looked good last week, but can he do it against the Packers' D?
I'd bet on the Under, if anything, as I think both offenses will struggle a bit.
Trends: The Packers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 trips to Chicago. The Bears are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog.
My Pick: Packers -3. Green Bay wins 19-13.
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