New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -9
O/U: 47.5
Though the Giants no longer have anything to play for and will be without Brandon Jacobs, I still believe that they have enough pride not to just lay down and die. Minnesota has been playing very poorly, but they realize that a win still gives them a shot at the first round bye they desperately need to sort out some of their issues. I'd like to say that it will be a blowout, but Minnesota is 1-5 ATS against the Giants since 1986 and I really think New York will try to give them a game.
My Pick: Giants +9. Minnesota wins 30-23.
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Falcons -2.5
O/U: 41.5
Why such a close spread? Because despite blowing out the Bills last week, the Falcons are 0-4 ATS the last four times they've faced the Bucs. But they're still playing for pride, and I doubt they'll roll over and die. Which is what they'd have to do for the Bucs to stay within 3 points.
My Pick: Falcons -2.5. Atlanta wins 24-20.
San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams
Line: 49ers -7
O/U: 40.5
Though there is nothing on the line, I expect Mike Singletary's team to play with as much pride as anyone in the league. The Rams may come out strong, but there is also a possibility that they'll just phone it in.
My Pick: 49ers -7. San Fran finsihes strong 20-10.
New England Patriots @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -8
O/U: 46
Hahahaha. Nothing like making my job easier. There is some question that the Pats and Bengals will "throw" games this week because they are guaranteed of a home game in the wild card round (3 or 4 seed) and would rather not see the Steelers make the postseason. They'll also be resting some players, in theory. But why would you want to lose to a team that might be the opponent you'll be forced to face again next week? You don't want them to have that confidence. I think the Pats will play to win. Despite how awful the Pats have been on the road, Houston has been a very up-and-down team. They were up last week, they should be down this week. I think I picked the Texans at 8-8 preseason...I'm sticking to it.
My Pick: Pats +8. New England wins outright 23-20.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Browns -1.5
O/U: 37.5
Jacksonville still technically has an outside shot at the playoffs (if practically all of the teams in contention lose, as the Jags hold a lot of tiebreakers). Though I don't like them, the reason they have 7 wins is that they've been able to beat the lesser teams that they were supposed to beat, such as the Browns. Cleveland has been playing pretty well, but I see them having a letdown this week.
My Pick: Jags +1.5. Jacksonville wins 21-13.
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -7
O/U: N/A
Again, the oddsmakers are making it too easy by over-reacting to which teams have a chance to rest players. Carolina is without Steve Smith, and backup QB Matt Moore, who has been solid, is pretty banged up. Even if Brees and the big guns play limited minutes, I doubt Carolina will win in blowout fashion. Plus the Saints have lost 2 in a row...it would be awfully nice for them to get back on the winning track before the playoffs. Plus the Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 at Carolina.
My Pick: Saints +7. New Orleans wins 35-13.
Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Bills -7.5
O/U: N/A
Again...what? The Bills don't have enough offense to beat anybody by more than a touchdown, let alone the Colts. I'm a Bills fan, and as such I'll pick them to win, but this spread is nuts. Indy has a lot of pride, and would like to go out on a winning note, despite being 1-6 ATS in their last 7 season enders.
My Pick: Colts +7.5. Buffalo gets the win 17-13.
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
Line: Bears -3
O/U: 45
The Bears should win, but may have a bit of a letdown after last week's huge win over the Vikings. So do I think there will be a letdown, or do I think that last week proves that the Bears play well when pride is on the line? The Lions are usually good in week 17 (6-2 ATS last 8), but without Stafford I wonder how much offense they can muster.
My Pick: Bears -3. Chicago wins 28-16.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Steelers -3
O/U: 46
Pittsburgh has everything to play for and Miami was effectively eliminated last week. As long as they aren't too preoccupied with what the Jets, Ravens, and Texans are doing, I think they'll win without much of a problem. Especially if Polamalu ends up playing.
My Pick: Steelers -3. Pittsburgh wins 30-17.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -3
O/U: 47.5
The Cowboys have been playing very well the past two weeks, especially on defense. But the Eagles coming to town may just remind them of their recent December/January woes, especially against Philly. The Cowboys are just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 at home against the Eagles, and Philly has a nice winning streak going against Dallas in games played in December or later. Both want to win, as the division is on the line and a first round bye may be at stake as well. But Dallas won last time, and I believe the Eagles are the better team. Which means they ought to return the favor. If Dallas wins, there is a scenario that would see this game played again next week, but its a longshot.
My Pick: Eagles +3. Philly wins 34-20.
Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cardinals -3
O/U: 44
Green Bay hasn't really beaten many good teams this year, but Arizona is only a good team half the time. They've been iffy at home, and may have a letdown after a big win last week. If Green Bay wins, they'll head back out to the desert (or stay there...) for a rematch next week. If the Cards win, the rematch is still a possibility. Neither team wants to give the other the confidence of knowing they can beat them, so both should be playing hard. I like the Cards, but they have been awfully inconsistent. Until I know that they can put it together for more than on game, I'm staying away from them.
My Pick: Packers +3. Green Bay forces the rematch with a 31-21 win.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -13
O/U: 38
Denver has a ton to play for and the Chiefs have nothing on the line. But I have seen AFC West games go completely the opposite of what is expected many times in the past. You can never count out the Chiefs or Raiders, as every division game is a rivalry matchup with plenty on the line. I expect the Broncos to be surprised by the intensity of the Chiefs, and I think they'll have to come from behind to win a game that is much closer than it should be. Even with a win, though, they'll need help to make the playoffs. I don't think they'll get it.
My Pick: Chiefs +13. Denver can't blow them out twice, right? Denver 34-27.
Baltimore Ravens @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Ravens -10.5
O/U: 38
A Ravens win would get them in the playoffs, no questions asked. Though they have 7 losses, none are to bad teams. The worst team they've lost to is actually the Steelers, who just beat them last week and are far better than their 8-7 record reflects. Oakland tends to respond well to losses, but the Ravens have been too good against lousy teams for me to think this will be much of a matchup. The Ravens are also 8-1 ATS in their last 9 against Oakland, and the Raiders are 1-5 their last 6 week 17's.
My Pick: Ravens -10.5. Baltimore rolls 31-10.
Washington Redskins @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -3.5
O/U: 39.5
The Skins have been terrible the last 2 weeks, and San Diego is one of the best teams in the league right now. They may be resting players, but I still think they can beat the Skins. The starters should play for a little while to stay in rhythm, especially with 2 weeks off before their next game. If Rivers and the first-team offense play for a full half, they should put the game out of reach.
My Pick: Chargers -3.5 San Diego wins 20-13.
Tennessee Titans @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Titans -4.5
O/U: 44
Tennessee has been playing with great pride the entire second half of the season, and despite being out of the playoff hunt, I expect them to play hard. A few weeks ago I expected Seattle to put on a show for the home fans, and they were routed. So I'm not worried about home-field advantage. Seattle is very blow-out-able, and I think Tennessee will beat them soundly.
My Pick: Titans -4.5. Tennessee wins 34-17.
Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -10
O/U: 35
The Bengals have played well in big games all year, but are very beatable when they're feeling apathetic. For them, this isn't a big game. Ochocinco's not going to do much now that he's called out Revis, who I'd bet will guard him the whole game. But was Chad going to play much anyway? We'll see how much the starters rest, but the Cincy D is solid enough not to allow the Jets to run away with it like they did against Indy. I think the Jets will win, but Cincy better be careful. This is one of 3 games this week that could end up happening again on wild card weekend, and Cincy doesn't want to throw the game and allow the Jets to have all the confidence and momentum for a possible rematch next week.
My Pick: Bengals +10. The Jets still win 17-10.
Thursday, December 31, 2009
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
NFL Week Sixteen Recap and Playoff Projections
Overall SU: 159-81 (11-5 wk 16)
Week 16 ATS: 8-8
Overall ATS: 115-121-4
Too Good to be True
San Diego Chargers @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 47
My Pick: Chargers +3. San Diego wins 24-23.
Result: Chargers 42-17
Tennessee had a great run, but ultimately couldn't recover from its terrible start. The Chargers seem to be the team to beat right now in the AFC, and since they won't have to see the Colts until championship weekend, I expect them to make it at least that far. Unless the rest kills their chemistry.
Good win...
Buffalo Bills @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -9
O/U: 41
My Pick: Falcons -9. Atlanta wins 21-10.
Result: Falcons 31-3
The Bills would have been in this game a bit more had the crazy play at the end of the first half held up for a TD. Instead Atlanta ran train on them in the second. Oh well. Neither team is going to the playoffs.
As Expected
Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -14
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Packers -14. Green Bay rolls 34-10.
Result: Packers 48-10
The Seahawks are extraordinarily blow-out-able this year. Green Bay clinched a playoff spot with the win. If they lose and Dallas beats Philly, they'll be the 6-seed. Otherwise, they're the 5. Strangely enough (this is not the only such matchup this week, hence it is strange) the Packers will likely visit Arizona two weeks in a row, as Green Bay is likely the 5 seed and Arizona likely the 4. Unless the Vikings lose to the Giants and are passed by Arizona (with a win) and Philly (with a win), in which case Green Bay (as a 5) would visit Minny (as a 4).
Finally Eliminated!
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -7.5
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Pats -7.5. New England finally puts it together and wins 31-21.
Result: Patriots 35-7
I am aware that they're not "technically" done, but its good enough for me. I never thought the Jags deserved a playoff spot. If you disagree, look at their schedule. They have 8 wins...all over crappy teams (HOU counts as crappy unless they make the playoffs). New England has locked up the division, but there's no telling whether or not they'll be the 3 or 4 seed. If they win @HOU (NE bad on road, HOU playing for their playoff life) and Cincy loses (@NYJ, also playing for playoff life), NE will be the 3. If Cincy wins and NE loses, they're the 4. If they're tied, it comes down to strength of victory, which is a pain in the butt to figure out. But it looks like New England would have the edge there depending on week 17 results. Who they'd play is tough to tell, too. The 5 and 6 are still up for grabs. BAL, NYJ, DEN, and PIT are the most likely opponents, but it is possible that this could turn into a rematch of week 17 if HOU wins, gets a ton of help to get the 6-seed, and sees the Jets beat the Bengals, they'd probably go to New England for the wild card round. But it's far less likely than a Packers-Cards rematch.
Deservedly Done
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -7
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Giants -7. New York stays alive 23-10.
Result: Panthers 41-9
How can you play that poorly with everything on the line? Just awful. They deserve to be done.
Always a great series
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -2.5
O/U: 41
My Pick: Steelers -2.5. Pittsburgh wins 13-10.
Result: Steelers 23-20
These teams always play each other so tough...no surprise that they'd split two games and have identical combined scores (each won by 3). Baltimore controls its destiny, and will be in with a win over Oakland. They could play the Pats or Bengals, depending on what happens in week 17. I'd imagine they'd rather play the Pats, having already lost twice to Cincy. Pittsburgh can still get in, too, but needs to win and see 2 of the following occur: the Jets fall to the Bengals, the Texans fall to the Pats, the Ravens lose to the Raiders.
Dumbasses
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -14
O/U: 49.5
My Pick: Saints -14. New Orleans in a rout 42-20.
Result: Bucs 20-17 (ot)
They had the spread beaten at halftime and blew it. Awful. They've backed into the 1-seed, and I worry about their playoff chances. They just don't look as sharp as they did earlier in the year.
Can't Predict Heart
Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -3
O/U: 45
My Pick: Dolphins -3. Miami wins 23-17.
Result: Texans 27-20
The Texans just wanted it more. They came out hot, and Miami had no answer. The Fins are pretty much done. Houston can get in with a win and a combo of 2 of the following: Jets lose, Broncos Lose, Ravens Lose. They can be the 5 or 6 seed, depending on what happens in week 17, and would play either the Bengals or Pats.
No Consequence
Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Browns -3
O/U: 38.5
My Pick: Browns -3. Cleveland wins 17-13.
Result: Browns 23-9
This game didn't really matter at all, except where pride is concerned. And when the Raiders get beat, they tend to come back strong the next week. So the Ravens better be careful.
Too Close...
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -14
O/U: 40
My Pick: Bengals -14. Cincy crushes the Chiefs 35-13.
Result: Bengals 17-10
Cincy needed to make more of a statement. I have no idea what to expect from them in the playoffs. They can be the 3 or 4 seed depending on what happens this week, and could play any of the AFC's wild-card-eligible teams.
I hate when I jump off the bandwagon too quick
St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cardinals -14
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Rams +14. Arizona wins 20-13.
Result: Cardinals 31-10
So Arizona finally decided to play. Good to know for future reference. As mentioned in the Packers recap, they'll more likely than not host Green Bay two weeks in a row. Otherwise, they'll see the loser of the Dallas/Philly game come to town.
Doesn't Matter
Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -12
O/U: 41
My Pick: Lions +12. San Fran wins 23-13.
Result: San Fran 20-6
At halftime this looked like a good pick. Then the 49ers started scoring.
First loss (and last?)
New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -5
O/U: 40.5
My Pick: Colts -5. Indy wins 24-13.
Result: Jets 29-15
They pulled Peyton too soon...but if they win the Super Bowl, it was the right call. Otherwise it will be second guessed for a long time. Indy is the 1-seed. New York gets in with a win, and would be the 5 seed. They could play either the Pats or Bengals, pending this week's results.
Huge Win...Bigger Loss
Denver Broncos @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -7
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Broncos +7. Philly still wins 23-20.
Result: Eagles 30-27
Philly can still be the 2, 5, or 6-seed. If they win, they'll get the bye and the division title. If they lose and Green Bay Wins, Dallas takes the division and Philly falls to the 6. If they lose and Green Bay loses, they're the 5. Denver, on the other hand, would have controlled their playoff future with a win over Philly and KC coming to Mile High in week 17. Instead, they'll need to win and get help. A combo of 2 of the following must lose: PIT, NYJ, and BAL. If HOU and PIT win, Hou beats out PIT, and then DEN beats out HOU, so they could still pull it off with a Steelers win, but it would also require a Texans win. My guess is they're in trouble.
As I thought...
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
Line: Cowboys -6.5
O/U: 42
My Pick: Cowboys -6.5. Dallas wins 27-17.
Result: Cowboys 17-0
Good to see Washington put up a fight offensively. Dallas can still be the 2-seed with a win and losses by MIN and ARI. They'd be the 3 if they win and either Minny or Arizona wins, but not both. They'd be the 4 with a win and MIN/ARI wins. They'll be the 6 seed if they lose.
Awful Ending
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
Line: Vikings -7
O/U: 41
My Pick: Vikings -7. Minnesota runs away with it 38-9.
Result: Bears 36-30 (ot)
Great game. But Minnesota's end-of-season skid has been awful. I really thought they'd contend for a Super Bowl spot, but they'll really need to get themselves back on track. A win and a Philly loss means they'll be the 2 seed. A win and a Philly win, or a PHI win and losses by both MIN and ARI would make them the 3 seed. They'll be the 4 if they lose and ARI wins, in which case they may play the Packers. Otherwise they'll either have a Bye or play Dallas.
My Prediction:
AFC: Jets lose, Ravens Win, Steelers win, Hou loses
1-Colts
2-Chargers
3-Pats
4-Bengals
5-Ravens
6-Steelers
NFC: PHI wins, ARI loses, MIN wins.
1-Saints
2-Eagles
3-Vikings
4-Cards
5-Packers
6-Cowboys
Week 16 ATS: 8-8
Overall ATS: 115-121-4
Too Good to be True
San Diego Chargers @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 47
My Pick: Chargers +3. San Diego wins 24-23.
Result: Chargers 42-17
Tennessee had a great run, but ultimately couldn't recover from its terrible start. The Chargers seem to be the team to beat right now in the AFC, and since they won't have to see the Colts until championship weekend, I expect them to make it at least that far. Unless the rest kills their chemistry.
Good win...
Buffalo Bills @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -9
O/U: 41
My Pick: Falcons -9. Atlanta wins 21-10.
Result: Falcons 31-3
The Bills would have been in this game a bit more had the crazy play at the end of the first half held up for a TD. Instead Atlanta ran train on them in the second. Oh well. Neither team is going to the playoffs.
As Expected
Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -14
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Packers -14. Green Bay rolls 34-10.
Result: Packers 48-10
The Seahawks are extraordinarily blow-out-able this year. Green Bay clinched a playoff spot with the win. If they lose and Dallas beats Philly, they'll be the 6-seed. Otherwise, they're the 5. Strangely enough (this is not the only such matchup this week, hence it is strange) the Packers will likely visit Arizona two weeks in a row, as Green Bay is likely the 5 seed and Arizona likely the 4. Unless the Vikings lose to the Giants and are passed by Arizona (with a win) and Philly (with a win), in which case Green Bay (as a 5) would visit Minny (as a 4).
Finally Eliminated!
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -7.5
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Pats -7.5. New England finally puts it together and wins 31-21.
Result: Patriots 35-7
I am aware that they're not "technically" done, but its good enough for me. I never thought the Jags deserved a playoff spot. If you disagree, look at their schedule. They have 8 wins...all over crappy teams (HOU counts as crappy unless they make the playoffs). New England has locked up the division, but there's no telling whether or not they'll be the 3 or 4 seed. If they win @HOU (NE bad on road, HOU playing for their playoff life) and Cincy loses (@NYJ, also playing for playoff life), NE will be the 3. If Cincy wins and NE loses, they're the 4. If they're tied, it comes down to strength of victory, which is a pain in the butt to figure out. But it looks like New England would have the edge there depending on week 17 results. Who they'd play is tough to tell, too. The 5 and 6 are still up for grabs. BAL, NYJ, DEN, and PIT are the most likely opponents, but it is possible that this could turn into a rematch of week 17 if HOU wins, gets a ton of help to get the 6-seed, and sees the Jets beat the Bengals, they'd probably go to New England for the wild card round. But it's far less likely than a Packers-Cards rematch.
Deservedly Done
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -7
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Giants -7. New York stays alive 23-10.
Result: Panthers 41-9
How can you play that poorly with everything on the line? Just awful. They deserve to be done.
Always a great series
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -2.5
O/U: 41
My Pick: Steelers -2.5. Pittsburgh wins 13-10.
Result: Steelers 23-20
These teams always play each other so tough...no surprise that they'd split two games and have identical combined scores (each won by 3). Baltimore controls its destiny, and will be in with a win over Oakland. They could play the Pats or Bengals, depending on what happens in week 17. I'd imagine they'd rather play the Pats, having already lost twice to Cincy. Pittsburgh can still get in, too, but needs to win and see 2 of the following occur: the Jets fall to the Bengals, the Texans fall to the Pats, the Ravens lose to the Raiders.
Dumbasses
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -14
O/U: 49.5
My Pick: Saints -14. New Orleans in a rout 42-20.
Result: Bucs 20-17 (ot)
They had the spread beaten at halftime and blew it. Awful. They've backed into the 1-seed, and I worry about their playoff chances. They just don't look as sharp as they did earlier in the year.
Can't Predict Heart
Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -3
O/U: 45
My Pick: Dolphins -3. Miami wins 23-17.
Result: Texans 27-20
The Texans just wanted it more. They came out hot, and Miami had no answer. The Fins are pretty much done. Houston can get in with a win and a combo of 2 of the following: Jets lose, Broncos Lose, Ravens Lose. They can be the 5 or 6 seed, depending on what happens in week 17, and would play either the Bengals or Pats.
No Consequence
Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Browns -3
O/U: 38.5
My Pick: Browns -3. Cleveland wins 17-13.
Result: Browns 23-9
This game didn't really matter at all, except where pride is concerned. And when the Raiders get beat, they tend to come back strong the next week. So the Ravens better be careful.
Too Close...
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -14
O/U: 40
My Pick: Bengals -14. Cincy crushes the Chiefs 35-13.
Result: Bengals 17-10
Cincy needed to make more of a statement. I have no idea what to expect from them in the playoffs. They can be the 3 or 4 seed depending on what happens this week, and could play any of the AFC's wild-card-eligible teams.
I hate when I jump off the bandwagon too quick
St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cardinals -14
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Rams +14. Arizona wins 20-13.
Result: Cardinals 31-10
So Arizona finally decided to play. Good to know for future reference. As mentioned in the Packers recap, they'll more likely than not host Green Bay two weeks in a row. Otherwise, they'll see the loser of the Dallas/Philly game come to town.
Doesn't Matter
Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -12
O/U: 41
My Pick: Lions +12. San Fran wins 23-13.
Result: San Fran 20-6
At halftime this looked like a good pick. Then the 49ers started scoring.
First loss (and last?)
New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -5
O/U: 40.5
My Pick: Colts -5. Indy wins 24-13.
Result: Jets 29-15
They pulled Peyton too soon...but if they win the Super Bowl, it was the right call. Otherwise it will be second guessed for a long time. Indy is the 1-seed. New York gets in with a win, and would be the 5 seed. They could play either the Pats or Bengals, pending this week's results.
Huge Win...Bigger Loss
Denver Broncos @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -7
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Broncos +7. Philly still wins 23-20.
Result: Eagles 30-27
Philly can still be the 2, 5, or 6-seed. If they win, they'll get the bye and the division title. If they lose and Green Bay Wins, Dallas takes the division and Philly falls to the 6. If they lose and Green Bay loses, they're the 5. Denver, on the other hand, would have controlled their playoff future with a win over Philly and KC coming to Mile High in week 17. Instead, they'll need to win and get help. A combo of 2 of the following must lose: PIT, NYJ, and BAL. If HOU and PIT win, Hou beats out PIT, and then DEN beats out HOU, so they could still pull it off with a Steelers win, but it would also require a Texans win. My guess is they're in trouble.
As I thought...
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
Line: Cowboys -6.5
O/U: 42
My Pick: Cowboys -6.5. Dallas wins 27-17.
Result: Cowboys 17-0
Good to see Washington put up a fight offensively. Dallas can still be the 2-seed with a win and losses by MIN and ARI. They'd be the 3 if they win and either Minny or Arizona wins, but not both. They'd be the 4 with a win and MIN/ARI wins. They'll be the 6 seed if they lose.
Awful Ending
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
Line: Vikings -7
O/U: 41
My Pick: Vikings -7. Minnesota runs away with it 38-9.
Result: Bears 36-30 (ot)
Great game. But Minnesota's end-of-season skid has been awful. I really thought they'd contend for a Super Bowl spot, but they'll really need to get themselves back on track. A win and a Philly loss means they'll be the 2 seed. A win and a Philly win, or a PHI win and losses by both MIN and ARI would make them the 3 seed. They'll be the 4 if they lose and ARI wins, in which case they may play the Packers. Otherwise they'll either have a Bye or play Dallas.
My Prediction:
AFC: Jets lose, Ravens Win, Steelers win, Hou loses
1-Colts
2-Chargers
3-Pats
4-Bengals
5-Ravens
6-Steelers
NFC: PHI wins, ARI loses, MIN wins.
1-Saints
2-Eagles
3-Vikings
4-Cards
5-Packers
6-Cowboys
Thursday, December 24, 2009
NFL Week Sixteen Preview
Friday, December 25th:
San Diego Chargers @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 47
I guess the oddsmakers factor in heart! San Diego has been unstoppable, and still has something to play for as the #2 seed isn't quite sewn up yet. I was going to pick the Titans, but the fact that San Diego is the underdog in this game is enough to change my mind. I know Tennessee has had a magical run, but it has to end sometime. It would be awfully cruel for them to win out and miss the playoffs on tiebreakers...which is why I think they'll lose.
My Pick: Chargers +3. San Diego wins 24-23.
Sunday, December 27th:
Buffalo Bills @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -9
O/U: 41
Buffalo is not the type of team that frequently gets blown out. They did get beat soundly by New Orleans and Miami earlier in the year, but the lopsided losses to Tennessee and Houston were close games most of the way and were broken open late. With Ryan and Turner in there, Atlanta should win. And despite being out of the playoff race, they very well may want to put on a show for the home fans. Edwards is done, so the Bills O has to rely on Fitzpatrick. Which means 10 points. So do I think the Falcons can put up 20? I'd say no due to Ryan's shaky play since his return (he was making some bad throws last week), but with Jairus Bird (the ballhawk!) and McGee out of the Bills lineup, I don't see them picking off many passes. And the run D has been bad all year (worst in the NFL).
My Pick: Falcons -9. Atlanta wins 21-10.
Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -14
O/U: 41.5
Seattle has given up, and the Packers need to keep winning to get themselves into the postseason. This has all the makings of a blowout.
My Pick: Packers -14. Green Bay rolls 34-10.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -7.5
O/U: 43.5
Both teams has a ton to play for, and I expect this to be a somewhat competitive game. I'm just worried that the Pats may finally find their rhythm at home and crush the Jags. Jacksonville needs to win out to have a realistic shot at the playoffs, but can they pull it off in New England?
My Pick: Pats -7.5. New England finally puts it together and wins 31-21.
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -7
O/U: 42.5
New York has to win out, and I wouldn't put that concept past a team with the capability the Giants have. Their defense was outstanding for most of the game against Washington, and I'd expect more of the same this week. DelHomme is done, and Moore has played in enough games now that defenses should be able to figure him out a little better. Like Josh Freeman in Tampa, I expect his usefulness to decrease as opposing defenses get to see more film on him. Also of note, most other teams with no playoff hopes have had a bad, apathetic week already...it's Carolina's turn.
My Pick: Giants -7. New York stays alive 23-10.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -2.5
O/U: 41
I think Polamalu makes all the difference in this one. It will be a smashmouth style game, and the Steelers D needs all of its leaders on the field to combat the intensity that will be coming from the other sideline. He is unlikely to play as of right now, but I'm going to pick the Steelers anyway. The Ravens' O has been inconsistent, and could have a bad week against Pittsburgh. Plus a Steelers win keeps them in the playoff hunt, and a Baltimore loss opens things up a bit more in the AFC and makes week 17 that much more interesting.
My Pick: Steelers -2.5. Pittsburgh wins 13-10.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -14
O/U: 49.5
Tampa's bad, New Orleans is good. And after all the craziness that New Orleans has been through with the pursuit of perfection, it would be crazy to think that they would be any less than the 1-seed in the NFC. If they win this game, they'll lock it up, so I expect them to play hard enough to get the home blowout.
My Pick: Saints -14. New Orleans in a rout 42-20.
Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -3
O/U: 45
This is a do-or-die game for both teams. The loser is done, the winner still has a shot. So expect a ton of intensity on both sides. For some reason, the Texans have really fallen off lately, and were barely able to beat the Rams this past week despite still having an outside shot at a playoff berth. Each team has beaten only one playoff-bound team all year, but I think Miami's defense and consistent play gives them an edge over the slumping Texans.
My Pick: Dolphins -3. Miami wins 23-17.
Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Browns -3
O/U: 38.5
Quinn is out, but does that really matter when the opposing QB is Charlie Frye? Oakland has beaten some good teams thus far, and is clearly the best of the worst. But they haven't pulled off back-to-back solid outings all year. It almost seems like they need to be embarassed for them to get angry enough to play a good game the following week. After a win over Denver, I expect a letdown. It also seems as though most of the NFL's crappy teams find a way to get 4 wins by the end of the year, and this is a golden opportunity for the Browns to get #4.
My Pick: Browns -3. Cleveland wins 17-13.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -14
O/U: 40
The Bengals have had some letdowns against lesser opposition this year, but as they are still on an emotional roller coaster following the funeral of Chris Henry, I don't think there will be a letdown this week. It's their first home game since Henry's death, and there will be a buzz in the air. The Benglas should put on a show. Not to mention they're still fighting for a playoff spot, as the Ravens can still catch them.
My Pick: Bengals -14. Cincy crushes the Chiefs 35-13.
St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cardinals -14
O/U: 43.5
The Cardinals are already in the playoffs, but have been playing poorly the last few weeks. St. Louis really seemed to have some solid intensity last week, but will they phone it in once they get to Arizona? The Cards couldn't beat the spread in St. Louis, and unless the Rams don't show up, I think they'll have trouble beating it again.
My Pick: Rams +14. Arizona wins 20-13.
Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -12
O/U: 41
I certainly don't think the 49ers will give up, as Singletary will kill them all if they do, but 12 points is an awful lot to cover when there's nothing on the line. Detroit is starting Stanton, though, so offense might be tough to come by. I just can't give a team with nothing to play for 12 points.
My Pick: Lions +12. San Fran wins 23-13.
New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -5
O/U: 40.5
So how long will Manning play? That's the real question here. I say he plays a half, just to stay in rhythm will all of his receivers. One hald of Manning is about 24 points on the scoreboard. The Jets won't score that many all game, especially with the Indy defense pumped up to go after that 16-0 record.
My Pick: Colts -5. Indy wins 24-13.
Denver Broncos @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -7
O/U: 41.5
I don't think the Eagles' long ball offense will have much success against the solid Broncos secondary. Both teams need wins...Denver to make the playoffs, Philly to push toward a possible bye week. Both will be playing hard, and I think Philly is the better team. Not that it necessarily means anything in today's parity-laden NFL.
My Pick: Broncos +7. Philly still wins 23-20.
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
Line: Cowboys -6.5
O/U: 42
All the analysts are convinced that after Washington's embarassing effort last week they'll come back ready to play this week. I'm not so sure. After all, they are a bad team with nothing to play for going up against a mediocre team with everything to play for. If the Cowboys lose, they are more than likely going to miss the playoffs. So I don't expect them to take this game lightly. They couldn't beat the spread against the Skins at home, but I think they'll have better luck in Washington.
My Pick: Cowboys -6.5. Dallas wins 27-17.
Monday, December 28th:
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
Line: Vikings -7
O/U: 41
Minnesota is still fighting for a bye week in the NFC playoffs, and really needs one, as their quarterback is quite old and could use the rest. Favre is out to prove that his tiff with Childress meant nothing, and the Vikings are out to show the world that they deserve that #2 seed. Chicago will struggle against a very good Viking D, and I'll bet AP has a good week after all the talk that the Vikings' slump is mostly due to an ineffective run game.
My Pick: Vikings -7. Minnesota runs away with it 38-9.
San Diego Chargers @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 47
I guess the oddsmakers factor in heart! San Diego has been unstoppable, and still has something to play for as the #2 seed isn't quite sewn up yet. I was going to pick the Titans, but the fact that San Diego is the underdog in this game is enough to change my mind. I know Tennessee has had a magical run, but it has to end sometime. It would be awfully cruel for them to win out and miss the playoffs on tiebreakers...which is why I think they'll lose.
My Pick: Chargers +3. San Diego wins 24-23.
Sunday, December 27th:
Buffalo Bills @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -9
O/U: 41
Buffalo is not the type of team that frequently gets blown out. They did get beat soundly by New Orleans and Miami earlier in the year, but the lopsided losses to Tennessee and Houston were close games most of the way and were broken open late. With Ryan and Turner in there, Atlanta should win. And despite being out of the playoff race, they very well may want to put on a show for the home fans. Edwards is done, so the Bills O has to rely on Fitzpatrick. Which means 10 points. So do I think the Falcons can put up 20? I'd say no due to Ryan's shaky play since his return (he was making some bad throws last week), but with Jairus Bird (the ballhawk!) and McGee out of the Bills lineup, I don't see them picking off many passes. And the run D has been bad all year (worst in the NFL).
My Pick: Falcons -9. Atlanta wins 21-10.
Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -14
O/U: 41.5
Seattle has given up, and the Packers need to keep winning to get themselves into the postseason. This has all the makings of a blowout.
My Pick: Packers -14. Green Bay rolls 34-10.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -7.5
O/U: 43.5
Both teams has a ton to play for, and I expect this to be a somewhat competitive game. I'm just worried that the Pats may finally find their rhythm at home and crush the Jags. Jacksonville needs to win out to have a realistic shot at the playoffs, but can they pull it off in New England?
My Pick: Pats -7.5. New England finally puts it together and wins 31-21.
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -7
O/U: 42.5
New York has to win out, and I wouldn't put that concept past a team with the capability the Giants have. Their defense was outstanding for most of the game against Washington, and I'd expect more of the same this week. DelHomme is done, and Moore has played in enough games now that defenses should be able to figure him out a little better. Like Josh Freeman in Tampa, I expect his usefulness to decrease as opposing defenses get to see more film on him. Also of note, most other teams with no playoff hopes have had a bad, apathetic week already...it's Carolina's turn.
My Pick: Giants -7. New York stays alive 23-10.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -2.5
O/U: 41
I think Polamalu makes all the difference in this one. It will be a smashmouth style game, and the Steelers D needs all of its leaders on the field to combat the intensity that will be coming from the other sideline. He is unlikely to play as of right now, but I'm going to pick the Steelers anyway. The Ravens' O has been inconsistent, and could have a bad week against Pittsburgh. Plus a Steelers win keeps them in the playoff hunt, and a Baltimore loss opens things up a bit more in the AFC and makes week 17 that much more interesting.
My Pick: Steelers -2.5. Pittsburgh wins 13-10.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -14
O/U: 49.5
Tampa's bad, New Orleans is good. And after all the craziness that New Orleans has been through with the pursuit of perfection, it would be crazy to think that they would be any less than the 1-seed in the NFC. If they win this game, they'll lock it up, so I expect them to play hard enough to get the home blowout.
My Pick: Saints -14. New Orleans in a rout 42-20.
Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -3
O/U: 45
This is a do-or-die game for both teams. The loser is done, the winner still has a shot. So expect a ton of intensity on both sides. For some reason, the Texans have really fallen off lately, and were barely able to beat the Rams this past week despite still having an outside shot at a playoff berth. Each team has beaten only one playoff-bound team all year, but I think Miami's defense and consistent play gives them an edge over the slumping Texans.
My Pick: Dolphins -3. Miami wins 23-17.
Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Browns -3
O/U: 38.5
Quinn is out, but does that really matter when the opposing QB is Charlie Frye? Oakland has beaten some good teams thus far, and is clearly the best of the worst. But they haven't pulled off back-to-back solid outings all year. It almost seems like they need to be embarassed for them to get angry enough to play a good game the following week. After a win over Denver, I expect a letdown. It also seems as though most of the NFL's crappy teams find a way to get 4 wins by the end of the year, and this is a golden opportunity for the Browns to get #4.
My Pick: Browns -3. Cleveland wins 17-13.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -14
O/U: 40
The Bengals have had some letdowns against lesser opposition this year, but as they are still on an emotional roller coaster following the funeral of Chris Henry, I don't think there will be a letdown this week. It's their first home game since Henry's death, and there will be a buzz in the air. The Benglas should put on a show. Not to mention they're still fighting for a playoff spot, as the Ravens can still catch them.
My Pick: Bengals -14. Cincy crushes the Chiefs 35-13.
St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cardinals -14
O/U: 43.5
The Cardinals are already in the playoffs, but have been playing poorly the last few weeks. St. Louis really seemed to have some solid intensity last week, but will they phone it in once they get to Arizona? The Cards couldn't beat the spread in St. Louis, and unless the Rams don't show up, I think they'll have trouble beating it again.
My Pick: Rams +14. Arizona wins 20-13.
Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -12
O/U: 41
I certainly don't think the 49ers will give up, as Singletary will kill them all if they do, but 12 points is an awful lot to cover when there's nothing on the line. Detroit is starting Stanton, though, so offense might be tough to come by. I just can't give a team with nothing to play for 12 points.
My Pick: Lions +12. San Fran wins 23-13.
New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -5
O/U: 40.5
So how long will Manning play? That's the real question here. I say he plays a half, just to stay in rhythm will all of his receivers. One hald of Manning is about 24 points on the scoreboard. The Jets won't score that many all game, especially with the Indy defense pumped up to go after that 16-0 record.
My Pick: Colts -5. Indy wins 24-13.
Denver Broncos @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -7
O/U: 41.5
I don't think the Eagles' long ball offense will have much success against the solid Broncos secondary. Both teams need wins...Denver to make the playoffs, Philly to push toward a possible bye week. Both will be playing hard, and I think Philly is the better team. Not that it necessarily means anything in today's parity-laden NFL.
My Pick: Broncos +7. Philly still wins 23-20.
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
Line: Cowboys -6.5
O/U: 42
All the analysts are convinced that after Washington's embarassing effort last week they'll come back ready to play this week. I'm not so sure. After all, they are a bad team with nothing to play for going up against a mediocre team with everything to play for. If the Cowboys lose, they are more than likely going to miss the playoffs. So I don't expect them to take this game lightly. They couldn't beat the spread against the Skins at home, but I think they'll have better luck in Washington.
My Pick: Cowboys -6.5. Dallas wins 27-17.
Monday, December 28th:
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
Line: Vikings -7
O/U: 41
Minnesota is still fighting for a bye week in the NFC playoffs, and really needs one, as their quarterback is quite old and could use the rest. Favre is out to prove that his tiff with Childress meant nothing, and the Vikings are out to show the world that they deserve that #2 seed. Chicago will struggle against a very good Viking D, and I'll bet AP has a good week after all the talk that the Vikings' slump is mostly due to an ineffective run game.
My Pick: Vikings -7. Minnesota runs away with it 38-9.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
NFL Week Fifteen Recap (w/ Playoff Contingencies)
Overall SU: 148-76 (10-6 wk 15)
Week 15 ATS: 6-8-2
Overall ATS: 107-113-4
Still Perfect
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 43
My Pick: Colts -3. Indy wins 24-20.
Result: Colts 35-31
The Jaguars put up a great fight, but the Colts are an elite team. Manning played well again and the Colts D did just enough. The Colts playoff scenario is simple...they're #1. They've clinched homefield. The road to the Super Bowl goes through Indy. The Jaguars are one of 6 teams at 7-7, and you have to assume that at least one of those teams will win its final 2 games. And it is very unlikely that both teams at 8-6 will lose their last 2 to fall to 8-8. In other words, the Jags will have to win out to have a playoff shot. It starts in New England, and I don't think they will win. But if a miracle occurs and they pull it off, they get the Browns in week 17, and could force some tiebreakers into effect. The Jags hold tiebreakers over the Jets, Pittsburgh, Houston, Baltimore, Denver, and Tennessee. But of course the Ravens and Broncos would have to lose once to be dropped back down into a tie with the Jags. If it came down to the Jags and Fins, Miami would have the tiebreaker due to last week's head-to-head win. We'll know more after this week, as the Jags go to NE, the Ravens go to PIT, and the Broncos go to PHI. The Jags would drop out of the running with a loss, but the door for all of the teams at 7-7 would swing wide open if the Broncos and/or Ravens lose. And with both having easy games in week 17, it could be the last chance for that door to open.
You Never Know in the NFL...
Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -7
O/U: 53.5
My Pick: Saints -7. New Orleans disposes of the Cowboys 33-23.
Result: Cowboys 24-17
It has been a long time since the Saints were held under 20 points. And it is amazing that it was the Cowboys who pulled it off. I didn't think Ware would play as of Thursday, and he turned out to be a huge factor. Dallas' problem isn't getting one win in December, though. It is sustaining solid play throughout the month. They have two more games to go...even one more loss would mean another sub-.500 December. The Saints are in, and with one more win they'll wrap up home field advantage. Tampa's on the horizon, so it should happen. If they lose out and the Vikings win out, Minny would get the spot. Dallas controls its own destiny, but again, they're awful in December. The Redskins were embarassed this week, and should come out with something to prove next week. The Cowboys then finish with Philly. A win would give them not only a playoff birth, but the NFC East crown. Unfortunately for Dallas, the Packers and Giants hold tiebreakers over them. So in the event that Dallas loses once and the Giants win out, it is the Cowboys who will be watching the playoffs on TV.
Bye, Bye Lovie
Chicago Bears @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -10
O/U: 40.5
My Pick: Ravens -10. Baltimore wins it 30-17.
Result: Ravens 31-7
The Ravens made a statement, just as I thought they would. A solid win for them as they move toward the playoffs. If they can win out, they're in. If Cincy loses out, they could still win the AFC North, though it is unlikely. Baltimore is probably looking at the 5-seed, as they hold the tiebreaker over the Broncos, with whom they are currently tied. They also hold tiebreakers over everyone but the Jags (who play @ the Pats this week...) so even with a loss, their playoff future looks pretty secure.
Whatever...
Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Chiefs -1
O/U: 36.5
My Pick: Chiefs -1. KC wins at home 31-24.
Result: Browns 41-34
KC put up a good fight, and the Browns were somehow involved in another offensive battle against a crappy team. Neither has any postseason hopes, but both will have a chance to play spoiler. KC gets the Broncos in week 17, and Denver could be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss to the Chiefs if they lose to Philly this week. Cleveland gets a shot at the Jags in week 17, and if they beat the Pats this week, a loss to the Browns would kill their playoff dreams.
Philly Stakes San Fran
San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -8.5
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: 49ers +8.5. Eagles win 24-20.
Result: Eagles 27-13
San Fran has officially been eliminated from contention in the NFC, but if you look back at their schedule, they have had a pretty good year. They almost beat the Vikings, they swept the NFC West's playoff team the Cardinals, and they've been very competitive against solid teams. There is plenty to look forward to for next year in San Fran. Philly is in for the playoffs, but there is still plenty to shoot for. If the Vikings falter, Philly could still get a bye. They're only one back, and they hold the tiebreaker. They could also lose the NFC East title with a loss @ Dallas and be forced into a wild card slot. Plenty of movement is possible for Philly...possible seeds range from #2 to #6!
Apathy Despite Playoff Hopes?
Houston Texans @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Texans -10
O/U: 43
My Pick: Texans -10. Houston gets the blowout 31-10.
Result: Texans 16-13
Why wouldn't Houston come out with passion when they still have a shot at the playoffs? Oh well. The Rams are out, but played with much more heart than they did last week, and almost got the upset. To win out, the Texans have to beat Miami, which would eliminate one competitor. They would be beaten on tiebreakers by the Ravens, Jets and Jags, and would need them to lose. The only team they can really get past is Tennessee. There is a shot, but they need a ton of help. Don't expect them to make the postseason.
Still Alive
Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee wins 21-13.
Result: Titans 27-24 (ot)
Both of these teams remain alive for playoff berths, though it doesn't look good for the Titans. Tennessee only holds a tiebreaker over Miami, and would need the Ravens and Broncos to lose out to have a shot. Miami holds tiebreakers over the Jets and and Jags, and would have to beat the Steelers to have a shot at the playoffs anyway. So they'll only need to worry about the Ravens and Broncos. If Denver loses to KC, Miami will get in over them. If the Broncos lose to Philly and beat KC, or if the Ravens lose only once, more tiebreakers will come into play, and I'd rather wait until we get a clearer picture of what is happening in the AFC before I go into figuring out strength of victory and other weird tiebreaker stats.
Defensive Battle
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -5
O/U: N/A
My Pick: Falcons +5. Atlanta wins outright 17-13.
Result: Falcons 10-7
This game turned out just like I thought it would, though I didn't realize it would take the Falcons quite so long to finally find the endzone. Atlanta holds no tiebreakers and is out of the playoffs, which is tough after such a great start. Injuries really killed their season. The Jets still have a shot, but a very tough road ahead, as they'll have to beat the Colts and Bengals to earn a playoff spot. Even then they'll need help. They hold tiebreakers over PIT, HOU, BAL and TEN, but would lose out to DEN, MIA or JAX in the event of a tie.
Talk about Limping into the Playoffs...
Arizona Cardinals @ Detroit Lions
Line: Cardinals -12
O/U: 46.5
My Pick: Cardinals -12. Arizona wins 41-17.
Result: Cards 31-24
Arizona has been playing awful lately. Rather than gaining confidence from last year's run and playing great football, the Cards seem to be overconfident, lacking in intensity, and content with backing into the playoffs. Yeah, they won, but it wasn't pretty. Arizona is very likely the #4 seed, though they could go as high as #2 if Philly and Minnesota lose their remaining games.
Still Not Dominating...
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Patriots -7
O/U: 40.5
My Pick: Patriots -7. New England rolls 30-10.
Result: Pats 17-10
New England finally got that elusive first road win, yet Brady didn't look himself and the Pats have really not been playing football at the level we have come to expect from them. When they began blowing teams out mid-season, it was almost a foregone conclusion that the AFC Byes would go to Indy and New England. Not anymore. San Diego has come on strong, and will likely have the first week of the playoffs off. If San Diego loses its last two and NE wins out, the Pats will get the bye based on common opponents, with that stat coming down to San Diego's loss to Tennessee. They're tied in common opponents right now (2-2 each), but the Pats beat the Titans and the Chargers would have to lose to Tennessee to open the door for New England to get the bye. Again, not likely. Even if San Diego loses to the Titans, they finish up with Washington.
Hahahahaha
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -13
O/U: 37
My Pick: Broncos -13. Denver wins 27-9.
Result: Raiders 20-19
I am very mad that I picked Denver. I truly thought I picked Oakland until I looked at the blog this morning. Check out my rationale...it was all positive for Oakland, and then I changed the pick at the last minute because Frye was the starting QB. I'm a dumbass. Anyway, the Broncos have faltered at the wrong time, and could miss the playoffs. Their Super Bowl is this week in Philly, because if they lose, they could be overtaken by one or more of the 7-7 teams by season's end. Pittsburgh and Jacksonville have the tiebreaker over them, but a tie with Houston or Tennessee would favor Denver. They lost to Baltimore heads up, so the Ravens would need to lose twice for Denver to beat them out. If they're tied up with Miami or the Jets, it would come down to strength of victory. Denver has some solid wins, but I'm not going to officially figure that stat out until next week when there will be a clearer picture of the AFC Playoff race.
Heart of a Champion
Cincinnati Bengals @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -6.5
O/U: 44
My Pick: Bengals +6.5. Cincy wins outright 23-14.
Result: Chargers 27-24
This game's title applies to both teams. To the Bengals for hanging with the Chargers the whole game, and to the Chargers for rising to the occasion and playing with great intensity to combat the Bengals' emotion. By far the best, most heartfelt Ochocinco touchdown celebration ever. A simple show of overwhelming emotion that fans of both teams can appreciate. These teams will both be in the playoffs, and may meet again soon with much more on the line. San Diego would have to lose out to relinquish the 2-seed, and Cincy would have to lose out to relinquish the division lead and fall back into a 9-7 tiebreaker scenario with half of the AFC. If they lose this week, I will figure out those tiebreakers. But they play Kansas City, and should wrap up the division.
Give Up Time?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -7
O/U: 39.5
My Pick: Seahawks -7. Seattle puts on a show for the home fans 34-13.
Result: Buccaneers 24-7
Seattle should be embarassed. Tampa wanted a second win and Seattle looked like their minds were already on the offseason. They'll get yelled at this week and may come out with a little more intensity, but probably still won't win if their hearts aren't truly in it anymore.
Called It
Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: 0
O/U: 40
My Pick: Steelers 20-17.
Result: Steelers 37-36
Green Bay is very beatable. Pittsburgh isn't ready to give up their slim playoff hopes just yet, but even a win streak to end the year is likely too little, too late. A Denver stumble would open the door, but the Steelers would still have to beat out any other 9-7 team that rises to the occasion. They have the tiebreaker on TEN, and would eliminate MIA by beating them in week 17. But the Jets would get in over PIT if they win out, as would JAX. HOU comes down to common opponents, which Houston wins thanks to PIT's loss to Oakland. So Pittsburgh fans need the Steelers to win out and will need NYJ, JAX, DEN and HOU to lose. Sounds crazy, but all 4 play a tough team or two, and I'd say the toughest part of this scenario will be Pittsburgh winning out.
Stumbling Vikings?
Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Vikings -7
O/U: 43
My Pick: Vikings -7. I'm back on Minny's bandwagon. Minnesota 33-16.
Result: Panthers 26-7
How can Peterson not be working? He's the best tool in the chest, and for some reason he's been on the fritz. It's like the Vikings are trying to give games away at this point. During the Panthers game, AP was thrown to on a quick screen and dropped it. If you've ever seen Brett Favre play, you know he was destined to give Peterson another shot. It came immediately. Another screen. Another drop. JUST AWFUL. And Bryant Mckinnie was useless against Peppers all game long. I think his benching will be a wake up call to him, but who knows? Minnesota can't dawdle, as another loss could lose them a bye week. And when your QB is 86 years old, a bye week is kinda important. Philly would have to win out and Minnesota would have to lose one game. The Vikings do, however, still have a shot at homefield advantage by winning out, but New Orleans is highly unlikely to lose to BOTH the Bucs and Panthers.
Staying Alive
New York Giants @ Washington Redskins
Line: Giants -3
O/U: 43
My Pick: Giants -3. New York wins 30-17.
Result: Giants 45-12
Yes, the Redskins should be embarassed. But what I took away from this game is that the Giants defense is finally ready to step up. Or at least they were for one game. They'll need to keep up that intensity if this team is to make the playoffs, as they'll likely need to win out. If Dallas loses once and the G-men win out, New York is in. If Dallas loses twice (unlikely...they play the Skins...), the Giants can lose to Minnesota in week 17 and still get in. If the Cowboys win out, the Giants can still overtake the Packers with 2 wins and a Packers loss, as the Giants hold the common opponents tiebreaker.
My Playoff Predictions as of week 15:
AFC: 1-Colts, 2-Chargers, 3-Bengals, 4-Pats, 5-Ravens, 6-Steelers
NFC: 1-Saints, 2-Eagles, 3-Vikings, 4-Cardinals, 5-Packers, 6-Giants
Week 15 ATS: 6-8-2
Overall ATS: 107-113-4
Still Perfect
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 43
My Pick: Colts -3. Indy wins 24-20.
Result: Colts 35-31
The Jaguars put up a great fight, but the Colts are an elite team. Manning played well again and the Colts D did just enough. The Colts playoff scenario is simple...they're #1. They've clinched homefield. The road to the Super Bowl goes through Indy. The Jaguars are one of 6 teams at 7-7, and you have to assume that at least one of those teams will win its final 2 games. And it is very unlikely that both teams at 8-6 will lose their last 2 to fall to 8-8. In other words, the Jags will have to win out to have a playoff shot. It starts in New England, and I don't think they will win. But if a miracle occurs and they pull it off, they get the Browns in week 17, and could force some tiebreakers into effect. The Jags hold tiebreakers over the Jets, Pittsburgh, Houston, Baltimore, Denver, and Tennessee. But of course the Ravens and Broncos would have to lose once to be dropped back down into a tie with the Jags. If it came down to the Jags and Fins, Miami would have the tiebreaker due to last week's head-to-head win. We'll know more after this week, as the Jags go to NE, the Ravens go to PIT, and the Broncos go to PHI. The Jags would drop out of the running with a loss, but the door for all of the teams at 7-7 would swing wide open if the Broncos and/or Ravens lose. And with both having easy games in week 17, it could be the last chance for that door to open.
You Never Know in the NFL...
Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -7
O/U: 53.5
My Pick: Saints -7. New Orleans disposes of the Cowboys 33-23.
Result: Cowboys 24-17
It has been a long time since the Saints were held under 20 points. And it is amazing that it was the Cowboys who pulled it off. I didn't think Ware would play as of Thursday, and he turned out to be a huge factor. Dallas' problem isn't getting one win in December, though. It is sustaining solid play throughout the month. They have two more games to go...even one more loss would mean another sub-.500 December. The Saints are in, and with one more win they'll wrap up home field advantage. Tampa's on the horizon, so it should happen. If they lose out and the Vikings win out, Minny would get the spot. Dallas controls its own destiny, but again, they're awful in December. The Redskins were embarassed this week, and should come out with something to prove next week. The Cowboys then finish with Philly. A win would give them not only a playoff birth, but the NFC East crown. Unfortunately for Dallas, the Packers and Giants hold tiebreakers over them. So in the event that Dallas loses once and the Giants win out, it is the Cowboys who will be watching the playoffs on TV.
Bye, Bye Lovie
Chicago Bears @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -10
O/U: 40.5
My Pick: Ravens -10. Baltimore wins it 30-17.
Result: Ravens 31-7
The Ravens made a statement, just as I thought they would. A solid win for them as they move toward the playoffs. If they can win out, they're in. If Cincy loses out, they could still win the AFC North, though it is unlikely. Baltimore is probably looking at the 5-seed, as they hold the tiebreaker over the Broncos, with whom they are currently tied. They also hold tiebreakers over everyone but the Jags (who play @ the Pats this week...) so even with a loss, their playoff future looks pretty secure.
Whatever...
Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Chiefs -1
O/U: 36.5
My Pick: Chiefs -1. KC wins at home 31-24.
Result: Browns 41-34
KC put up a good fight, and the Browns were somehow involved in another offensive battle against a crappy team. Neither has any postseason hopes, but both will have a chance to play spoiler. KC gets the Broncos in week 17, and Denver could be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss to the Chiefs if they lose to Philly this week. Cleveland gets a shot at the Jags in week 17, and if they beat the Pats this week, a loss to the Browns would kill their playoff dreams.
Philly Stakes San Fran
San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -8.5
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: 49ers +8.5. Eagles win 24-20.
Result: Eagles 27-13
San Fran has officially been eliminated from contention in the NFC, but if you look back at their schedule, they have had a pretty good year. They almost beat the Vikings, they swept the NFC West's playoff team the Cardinals, and they've been very competitive against solid teams. There is plenty to look forward to for next year in San Fran. Philly is in for the playoffs, but there is still plenty to shoot for. If the Vikings falter, Philly could still get a bye. They're only one back, and they hold the tiebreaker. They could also lose the NFC East title with a loss @ Dallas and be forced into a wild card slot. Plenty of movement is possible for Philly...possible seeds range from #2 to #6!
Apathy Despite Playoff Hopes?
Houston Texans @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Texans -10
O/U: 43
My Pick: Texans -10. Houston gets the blowout 31-10.
Result: Texans 16-13
Why wouldn't Houston come out with passion when they still have a shot at the playoffs? Oh well. The Rams are out, but played with much more heart than they did last week, and almost got the upset. To win out, the Texans have to beat Miami, which would eliminate one competitor. They would be beaten on tiebreakers by the Ravens, Jets and Jags, and would need them to lose. The only team they can really get past is Tennessee. There is a shot, but they need a ton of help. Don't expect them to make the postseason.
Still Alive
Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee wins 21-13.
Result: Titans 27-24 (ot)
Both of these teams remain alive for playoff berths, though it doesn't look good for the Titans. Tennessee only holds a tiebreaker over Miami, and would need the Ravens and Broncos to lose out to have a shot. Miami holds tiebreakers over the Jets and and Jags, and would have to beat the Steelers to have a shot at the playoffs anyway. So they'll only need to worry about the Ravens and Broncos. If Denver loses to KC, Miami will get in over them. If the Broncos lose to Philly and beat KC, or if the Ravens lose only once, more tiebreakers will come into play, and I'd rather wait until we get a clearer picture of what is happening in the AFC before I go into figuring out strength of victory and other weird tiebreaker stats.
Defensive Battle
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -5
O/U: N/A
My Pick: Falcons +5. Atlanta wins outright 17-13.
Result: Falcons 10-7
This game turned out just like I thought it would, though I didn't realize it would take the Falcons quite so long to finally find the endzone. Atlanta holds no tiebreakers and is out of the playoffs, which is tough after such a great start. Injuries really killed their season. The Jets still have a shot, but a very tough road ahead, as they'll have to beat the Colts and Bengals to earn a playoff spot. Even then they'll need help. They hold tiebreakers over PIT, HOU, BAL and TEN, but would lose out to DEN, MIA or JAX in the event of a tie.
Talk about Limping into the Playoffs...
Arizona Cardinals @ Detroit Lions
Line: Cardinals -12
O/U: 46.5
My Pick: Cardinals -12. Arizona wins 41-17.
Result: Cards 31-24
Arizona has been playing awful lately. Rather than gaining confidence from last year's run and playing great football, the Cards seem to be overconfident, lacking in intensity, and content with backing into the playoffs. Yeah, they won, but it wasn't pretty. Arizona is very likely the #4 seed, though they could go as high as #2 if Philly and Minnesota lose their remaining games.
Still Not Dominating...
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Patriots -7
O/U: 40.5
My Pick: Patriots -7. New England rolls 30-10.
Result: Pats 17-10
New England finally got that elusive first road win, yet Brady didn't look himself and the Pats have really not been playing football at the level we have come to expect from them. When they began blowing teams out mid-season, it was almost a foregone conclusion that the AFC Byes would go to Indy and New England. Not anymore. San Diego has come on strong, and will likely have the first week of the playoffs off. If San Diego loses its last two and NE wins out, the Pats will get the bye based on common opponents, with that stat coming down to San Diego's loss to Tennessee. They're tied in common opponents right now (2-2 each), but the Pats beat the Titans and the Chargers would have to lose to Tennessee to open the door for New England to get the bye. Again, not likely. Even if San Diego loses to the Titans, they finish up with Washington.
Hahahahaha
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -13
O/U: 37
My Pick: Broncos -13. Denver wins 27-9.
Result: Raiders 20-19
I am very mad that I picked Denver. I truly thought I picked Oakland until I looked at the blog this morning. Check out my rationale...it was all positive for Oakland, and then I changed the pick at the last minute because Frye was the starting QB. I'm a dumbass. Anyway, the Broncos have faltered at the wrong time, and could miss the playoffs. Their Super Bowl is this week in Philly, because if they lose, they could be overtaken by one or more of the 7-7 teams by season's end. Pittsburgh and Jacksonville have the tiebreaker over them, but a tie with Houston or Tennessee would favor Denver. They lost to Baltimore heads up, so the Ravens would need to lose twice for Denver to beat them out. If they're tied up with Miami or the Jets, it would come down to strength of victory. Denver has some solid wins, but I'm not going to officially figure that stat out until next week when there will be a clearer picture of the AFC Playoff race.
Heart of a Champion
Cincinnati Bengals @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -6.5
O/U: 44
My Pick: Bengals +6.5. Cincy wins outright 23-14.
Result: Chargers 27-24
This game's title applies to both teams. To the Bengals for hanging with the Chargers the whole game, and to the Chargers for rising to the occasion and playing with great intensity to combat the Bengals' emotion. By far the best, most heartfelt Ochocinco touchdown celebration ever. A simple show of overwhelming emotion that fans of both teams can appreciate. These teams will both be in the playoffs, and may meet again soon with much more on the line. San Diego would have to lose out to relinquish the 2-seed, and Cincy would have to lose out to relinquish the division lead and fall back into a 9-7 tiebreaker scenario with half of the AFC. If they lose this week, I will figure out those tiebreakers. But they play Kansas City, and should wrap up the division.
Give Up Time?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -7
O/U: 39.5
My Pick: Seahawks -7. Seattle puts on a show for the home fans 34-13.
Result: Buccaneers 24-7
Seattle should be embarassed. Tampa wanted a second win and Seattle looked like their minds were already on the offseason. They'll get yelled at this week and may come out with a little more intensity, but probably still won't win if their hearts aren't truly in it anymore.
Called It
Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: 0
O/U: 40
My Pick: Steelers 20-17.
Result: Steelers 37-36
Green Bay is very beatable. Pittsburgh isn't ready to give up their slim playoff hopes just yet, but even a win streak to end the year is likely too little, too late. A Denver stumble would open the door, but the Steelers would still have to beat out any other 9-7 team that rises to the occasion. They have the tiebreaker on TEN, and would eliminate MIA by beating them in week 17. But the Jets would get in over PIT if they win out, as would JAX. HOU comes down to common opponents, which Houston wins thanks to PIT's loss to Oakland. So Pittsburgh fans need the Steelers to win out and will need NYJ, JAX, DEN and HOU to lose. Sounds crazy, but all 4 play a tough team or two, and I'd say the toughest part of this scenario will be Pittsburgh winning out.
Stumbling Vikings?
Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Vikings -7
O/U: 43
My Pick: Vikings -7. I'm back on Minny's bandwagon. Minnesota 33-16.
Result: Panthers 26-7
How can Peterson not be working? He's the best tool in the chest, and for some reason he's been on the fritz. It's like the Vikings are trying to give games away at this point. During the Panthers game, AP was thrown to on a quick screen and dropped it. If you've ever seen Brett Favre play, you know he was destined to give Peterson another shot. It came immediately. Another screen. Another drop. JUST AWFUL. And Bryant Mckinnie was useless against Peppers all game long. I think his benching will be a wake up call to him, but who knows? Minnesota can't dawdle, as another loss could lose them a bye week. And when your QB is 86 years old, a bye week is kinda important. Philly would have to win out and Minnesota would have to lose one game. The Vikings do, however, still have a shot at homefield advantage by winning out, but New Orleans is highly unlikely to lose to BOTH the Bucs and Panthers.
Staying Alive
New York Giants @ Washington Redskins
Line: Giants -3
O/U: 43
My Pick: Giants -3. New York wins 30-17.
Result: Giants 45-12
Yes, the Redskins should be embarassed. But what I took away from this game is that the Giants defense is finally ready to step up. Or at least they were for one game. They'll need to keep up that intensity if this team is to make the playoffs, as they'll likely need to win out. If Dallas loses once and the G-men win out, New York is in. If Dallas loses twice (unlikely...they play the Skins...), the Giants can lose to Minnesota in week 17 and still get in. If the Cowboys win out, the Giants can still overtake the Packers with 2 wins and a Packers loss, as the Giants hold the common opponents tiebreaker.
My Playoff Predictions as of week 15:
AFC: 1-Colts, 2-Chargers, 3-Bengals, 4-Pats, 5-Ravens, 6-Steelers
NFC: 1-Saints, 2-Eagles, 3-Vikings, 4-Cardinals, 5-Packers, 6-Giants
Thursday, December 17, 2009
NFL Week Fifteen Preview
Thursday, December 17th:
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 43
Even with Sorgi I think the Colts will beat the Jags. Peyton will play for a little, and will likely get them out to a nice lead. Then the question becomes whether or not they can hold on. The Jags did beat the spread against them last time, so I wouldn't expect a total blowout, but I think the Colts can handle a spread of 3.
My Pick: Colts -3. Indy wins 24-20.
Saturday, December 19th:
Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -7
O/U: 53.5
The last time the Saints were faced with a decent opponent who had a chance to break their streak at home, they crushed the Patriots. I expect them to come out with the same intensity this week. Dallas will need to put forth its best effort to even contend with the Saints, and with Demarcus Ware questionable, I'm not sure how the defense will hold up. If the Saints play well, they'll crush the Cowboys. If they play mediocre, the Cowboys will still have to play their best to keep it close. If I'm a Saint, I see this as our last obstacle to an undefeated season. In other words, I'd be playing my ass off. Let's hope the Saints players see it that way.
My Pick: Saints -7. New Orleans disposes of the Cowboys 33-23.
Sunday, December 20th:
Chicago Bears @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -10
O/U: 40.5
The Ravens need to keep winning to sneak into the playoffs, and I don't see the Bears as much of a hurdle. After blowing out the Lions last week, I expect the Ravens to keep doing what they're supposed to do by beating the sub-.500 teams on their schedule. Keep in mind that Baltimore has only lost to good teams this season...
My Pick: Ravens -10. Baltimore wins it 30-17.
Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Chiefs -1
O/U: 36.5
This is just an awful game. I can't imagine Chiefs and Browns fans will even want to watch this one. The problem with a game between 2 crap teams late in the season is that you never know if they'll come out with intensity or will come out sluggish because there isn't a whole lot to play for. These teams have played over the total all 3 meetings, and have the 30th and 31st ranked defenses in the league (Cleveland is worse, in case you were curious), so I'm going with a high scoring total. As for the pick itself...last week I remembered an old, very strange strategy for picking late season games that I don't care about. If team A beats team B, and team B beats team C, Team C has a tendency to beat Team A, even though it doesn't logically follow. That's the theory I'm trying here. Cleveland beat the Bills and the Bills beat KC...so it seems as though Cleveland should beat KC as well. My theory suggests otherwise.
My Pick: Chiefs -1. KC wins at home 31-24.
San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -8.5
O/U: 42.5
Here's a surprise for you...the 49ers are 9-3-1 ATS this season, and have dropped only 1 game ATS on the road (a pick 'em game in Seattle). San Fran has no playoff hopes with a loss, and if Philly wins and the Cowboys lose, which is likely, they'll have a 2-game lead in the division with 2 to play, and all the drama could be gone before the week 17 showdown between the Boys and Iggles. How often have you known the NFC East to be drama free in week 17? I think the situation will mean a close game, but with the newfound power running of Weaver, I think the Eagles are just too strong for San Fran. Plus the drama will still have a chance to build if Philly loses to Denver in week 16, which seems more likely than losing to San Fran.
My Pick: 49ers +8.5. Eagles win 24-20.
Houston Texans @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Texans -10
O/U: 43
Houston still has playoff hopes, albeit slim. If they win out, they can get in at 9-7 with a little help. So I can only imagine they'll be at the top of their game for the remainder of the season. St. Louis looked as though they had completely given up last week, and although I'm sure they'll get yelled at in practice, I'm not sure it can make them play with any more heart. Plus Boller has been ill, which could give the start to Keith Null. Which would make the St. Louis offense Null. Perfect name for a 3rd string QB!
My Pick: Texans -10. Houston gets the blowout 31-10.
Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 41.5
Both of these teams are fighting for their postseason lives, and I expect this to be a great, hard-fought game. I think this will be the first game where Ronnie Brown's absence hurts the Dolphins offense enough that they can't overcome it. The Titans are #7 in the league against the run, and when a solid run defense plays angry, they are very tough to beat without trickery. If the Fins use a solid amount of Pat White (6+plays) in the wildcat, it might work. But for some reason I don't think that will be in their gameplan. Young's hamstring injury was classified as "mild", and I'll bet he can play in what amounts to the biggest game of the season for the Titans (at this point, each successive must-win is the biggest game of the year). If not, Collins is more than capable of stepping in, and has had a lot of reps in practice this week with Young sidelined. Keep in mind that the Young injury has forced Miami to gameplan for two very different offensive schemes, which limits the amount of time the team is able to work on-field to stop each one. What this game ultimately comes down to is the fact that I trust the Titans more in a must-win situation.
My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee wins 21-13.
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -5
O/U: N/A
Still no word on Ryan or Turner, so this will be tough to call. Both teams can technically still get in the playoffs, although Atlanta needs to win out and get a TON of help. In other words, I expect both teams to be playing with lots of heart. My problem is that, even with Sanchez back, I think the Jets offense will struggle against the Falcons D. I know I suggested that the Falcons D would keep them in the game 2 weeks ago against Philly, and that didn't happen, but the Jets O is a different animal. Even without Ryan and Turner, I think the Falcons can win this game, based on the level of play they showed last week against New Orleans. So hopefully they come out wanting to win.
My Pick: Falcons +5. Atlanta wins outright 17-13.
Arizona Cardinals @ Detroit Lions
Line: Cardinals -12
O/U: 46.5
Arizona's road stumble last week was a single occurrence, not a trend. They've been stellar on the road all year, and I imagine that will continue this week. Because they failed to beat the 49ers, a win this week won't clinch unless the 49ers lose. Which means that Arizona can't play lackadaisically anymore...they need two more wins to clinch the division for sure, and Detroit needs to be one of them. Plus Detroit has a crappy defense and Warner should shred it.
My Pick: Cardinals +12. Arizona wins 41-17.
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Patriots -7
O/U: 40.5
The Bills nearly beat the Pats in Foxboro, but that was in week one, when Brady was still getting used to the game again after a long absence. He's well entrenched now, and I can't imagine he'll struggle too much against Buffalo given the scope of this game. The Pats could legitimitely lose the division lead and miss the playoffs if they can't wrap things up against bad teams down the stretch. Buffalo has nowhere to go, and although they would love to put on a good show at home against the Pats, their hearts may not be in it. I have seen the Pats blow out the Bills enough times over the last few years to know that it is a very likely outcome, especially when the Pats are angry. Look for Moss to step up this week in the face of controversy and the Pats to win big.
My Pick: Patriots -7. New England rolls 30-10.
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -13
O/U: 37
The Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 trips to Denver. Except for one bad stretch earlier in the year, Oakland has come back strong from every bad loss. They've also played a very tough schedule, and have beaten some solid teams. Despite a 20-point loss to Denver earlier in the year, I expect the Raiders to come out with a purpose. Oh wait...their starting quarterback is who? Charlie Frye? Nevermind.
My Pick: Broncos -13. Denver wins 27-9.
Cincinnati Bengals @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -6.5
O/U: 44
First of all best wishes are in order to the entire Bengals family following the loss of one of their own. Yet it is still my job to dissect the situation to determine how it will affect them. Certainly it will mean less practice time and a lot of emotional strain. But with the game on the road and the team forced to spend significantly more time together, I think this situation could rally them together in a "win one for Chris" sort of way. The Bengals have been a very emotional team all year, playing their best football in the biggest games. Now they've got a huge game and a ton of incentive to win. I say this situation helps them, but if they get blown out, the reason will be evident.
My Pick: Bengals +6.5. Cincy wins outright 23-14.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -7
O/U: 39.5
Seattle is a tough place to play, but can I really give 7 points to a team that has been so awful all year long? Tampa beat Green Bay, so we know they have some talent. As teams have figured out Freeman, though, the Bucs offense has become very stoppable. And the defense isn't very good either. If the Bucs beat the spread, I'll bet they win outright. I won't be totally shocked if it happens, as the Seahawks may very well have given up already, but the Bucs are only 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against Seattle. I think the homefield advantage will mean a lot, and if the Seahawks show up at all, I expect them to dominate.
My Pick: Seahawks -7. Seattle puts on a show for the home fans 34-13.
Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: 0
O/U: 40
Green Bay hasn't beaten any really great teams, but the Steelers have long since dropped off the list of teams considered "great". Pittsburgh's offense has been awful, and Green Bay has the #2 ranked defense in the league. Polamalu's absence means that Rodgers may have a chance to pick apart the Steeler D, but Green Bay has an awful O-line, so you never know if he'll have any time to throw the ball. For me, this one boils down to whether or not I trust the Steelers enough to pick them right now. Green Bay should find a way in the playoffs even with a loss, and although everyone says the Steelers are done, they aren't yet mathematically eliminated. If they win out and get a bunch of help, they could still be a playoff team. I expect them to play hard, especially at home, and I just don't feel comfortable picking the Packers to beat the tough, hard-nosed Steelers one week after outlasting the tough, hard-nosed Bears (despite them being a little "softer" than in years past).
My Pick: Steelers 20-17.
Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Vikings -7
O/U: 43
The Vikings are trying to wrap up the bye so they can start resting QB Strom Thurmond so that he'll be somewhat fresh for the postseason. Carolina is done, and although they'd love to make the fans happy with a home win, the Vikings are really, really good. Carolina has a good pass D and a crappy run D...so what do you think will happen? AP will run all over them. To beat the Vikings you need defensive balance. And Delhomme is still questionable, which means the Vikings D will have a field day against Matt Moore. Who? Exactly.
My Pick: Vikings -7. I'm back on Minny's bandwagon. Minnesota 33-16.
Monday, December 21st:
New York Giants @ Washington Redskins
Line: Giants -3
O/U: 43
The Skins kept it close last time, but with the Giants needing a win to avoid certain playoff elimination, they're going to be playing with a lot of intensity. Green Bay is almost certain to get one wildcard spot, as they'll finish at least 10-6 unless they somehow blow 3 straight after losing only 4 to this point. Which means that the Giants are chasing whoever doesn't win the NFC East for the final wildcard spot. They hold the tiebreaker over Dallas, so if they can win out and watch Dallas drop at least 1 more game (highly likely) or if the Giants lose one more and watch Dallas lose twice (far less likely), then they could still get in. But that one potential loss needs to be reserved for week 17 in Minnesota, just in case, as that's the best team left on the Giants' schedule. A loss to Washington would be enough for me to declare them officially dead.
My Pick: Giants -3. New York wins 30-17.
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 43
Even with Sorgi I think the Colts will beat the Jags. Peyton will play for a little, and will likely get them out to a nice lead. Then the question becomes whether or not they can hold on. The Jags did beat the spread against them last time, so I wouldn't expect a total blowout, but I think the Colts can handle a spread of 3.
My Pick: Colts -3. Indy wins 24-20.
Saturday, December 19th:
Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -7
O/U: 53.5
The last time the Saints were faced with a decent opponent who had a chance to break their streak at home, they crushed the Patriots. I expect them to come out with the same intensity this week. Dallas will need to put forth its best effort to even contend with the Saints, and with Demarcus Ware questionable, I'm not sure how the defense will hold up. If the Saints play well, they'll crush the Cowboys. If they play mediocre, the Cowboys will still have to play their best to keep it close. If I'm a Saint, I see this as our last obstacle to an undefeated season. In other words, I'd be playing my ass off. Let's hope the Saints players see it that way.
My Pick: Saints -7. New Orleans disposes of the Cowboys 33-23.
Sunday, December 20th:
Chicago Bears @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -10
O/U: 40.5
The Ravens need to keep winning to sneak into the playoffs, and I don't see the Bears as much of a hurdle. After blowing out the Lions last week, I expect the Ravens to keep doing what they're supposed to do by beating the sub-.500 teams on their schedule. Keep in mind that Baltimore has only lost to good teams this season...
My Pick: Ravens -10. Baltimore wins it 30-17.
Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Chiefs -1
O/U: 36.5
This is just an awful game. I can't imagine Chiefs and Browns fans will even want to watch this one. The problem with a game between 2 crap teams late in the season is that you never know if they'll come out with intensity or will come out sluggish because there isn't a whole lot to play for. These teams have played over the total all 3 meetings, and have the 30th and 31st ranked defenses in the league (Cleveland is worse, in case you were curious), so I'm going with a high scoring total. As for the pick itself...last week I remembered an old, very strange strategy for picking late season games that I don't care about. If team A beats team B, and team B beats team C, Team C has a tendency to beat Team A, even though it doesn't logically follow. That's the theory I'm trying here. Cleveland beat the Bills and the Bills beat KC...so it seems as though Cleveland should beat KC as well. My theory suggests otherwise.
My Pick: Chiefs -1. KC wins at home 31-24.
San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -8.5
O/U: 42.5
Here's a surprise for you...the 49ers are 9-3-1 ATS this season, and have dropped only 1 game ATS on the road (a pick 'em game in Seattle). San Fran has no playoff hopes with a loss, and if Philly wins and the Cowboys lose, which is likely, they'll have a 2-game lead in the division with 2 to play, and all the drama could be gone before the week 17 showdown between the Boys and Iggles. How often have you known the NFC East to be drama free in week 17? I think the situation will mean a close game, but with the newfound power running of Weaver, I think the Eagles are just too strong for San Fran. Plus the drama will still have a chance to build if Philly loses to Denver in week 16, which seems more likely than losing to San Fran.
My Pick: 49ers +8.5. Eagles win 24-20.
Houston Texans @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Texans -10
O/U: 43
Houston still has playoff hopes, albeit slim. If they win out, they can get in at 9-7 with a little help. So I can only imagine they'll be at the top of their game for the remainder of the season. St. Louis looked as though they had completely given up last week, and although I'm sure they'll get yelled at in practice, I'm not sure it can make them play with any more heart. Plus Boller has been ill, which could give the start to Keith Null. Which would make the St. Louis offense Null. Perfect name for a 3rd string QB!
My Pick: Texans -10. Houston gets the blowout 31-10.
Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 41.5
Both of these teams are fighting for their postseason lives, and I expect this to be a great, hard-fought game. I think this will be the first game where Ronnie Brown's absence hurts the Dolphins offense enough that they can't overcome it. The Titans are #7 in the league against the run, and when a solid run defense plays angry, they are very tough to beat without trickery. If the Fins use a solid amount of Pat White (6+plays) in the wildcat, it might work. But for some reason I don't think that will be in their gameplan. Young's hamstring injury was classified as "mild", and I'll bet he can play in what amounts to the biggest game of the season for the Titans (at this point, each successive must-win is the biggest game of the year). If not, Collins is more than capable of stepping in, and has had a lot of reps in practice this week with Young sidelined. Keep in mind that the Young injury has forced Miami to gameplan for two very different offensive schemes, which limits the amount of time the team is able to work on-field to stop each one. What this game ultimately comes down to is the fact that I trust the Titans more in a must-win situation.
My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee wins 21-13.
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -5
O/U: N/A
Still no word on Ryan or Turner, so this will be tough to call. Both teams can technically still get in the playoffs, although Atlanta needs to win out and get a TON of help. In other words, I expect both teams to be playing with lots of heart. My problem is that, even with Sanchez back, I think the Jets offense will struggle against the Falcons D. I know I suggested that the Falcons D would keep them in the game 2 weeks ago against Philly, and that didn't happen, but the Jets O is a different animal. Even without Ryan and Turner, I think the Falcons can win this game, based on the level of play they showed last week against New Orleans. So hopefully they come out wanting to win.
My Pick: Falcons +5. Atlanta wins outright 17-13.
Arizona Cardinals @ Detroit Lions
Line: Cardinals -12
O/U: 46.5
Arizona's road stumble last week was a single occurrence, not a trend. They've been stellar on the road all year, and I imagine that will continue this week. Because they failed to beat the 49ers, a win this week won't clinch unless the 49ers lose. Which means that Arizona can't play lackadaisically anymore...they need two more wins to clinch the division for sure, and Detroit needs to be one of them. Plus Detroit has a crappy defense and Warner should shred it.
My Pick: Cardinals +12. Arizona wins 41-17.
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Patriots -7
O/U: 40.5
The Bills nearly beat the Pats in Foxboro, but that was in week one, when Brady was still getting used to the game again after a long absence. He's well entrenched now, and I can't imagine he'll struggle too much against Buffalo given the scope of this game. The Pats could legitimitely lose the division lead and miss the playoffs if they can't wrap things up against bad teams down the stretch. Buffalo has nowhere to go, and although they would love to put on a good show at home against the Pats, their hearts may not be in it. I have seen the Pats blow out the Bills enough times over the last few years to know that it is a very likely outcome, especially when the Pats are angry. Look for Moss to step up this week in the face of controversy and the Pats to win big.
My Pick: Patriots -7. New England rolls 30-10.
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -13
O/U: 37
The Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 trips to Denver. Except for one bad stretch earlier in the year, Oakland has come back strong from every bad loss. They've also played a very tough schedule, and have beaten some solid teams. Despite a 20-point loss to Denver earlier in the year, I expect the Raiders to come out with a purpose. Oh wait...their starting quarterback is who? Charlie Frye? Nevermind.
My Pick: Broncos -13. Denver wins 27-9.
Cincinnati Bengals @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -6.5
O/U: 44
First of all best wishes are in order to the entire Bengals family following the loss of one of their own. Yet it is still my job to dissect the situation to determine how it will affect them. Certainly it will mean less practice time and a lot of emotional strain. But with the game on the road and the team forced to spend significantly more time together, I think this situation could rally them together in a "win one for Chris" sort of way. The Bengals have been a very emotional team all year, playing their best football in the biggest games. Now they've got a huge game and a ton of incentive to win. I say this situation helps them, but if they get blown out, the reason will be evident.
My Pick: Bengals +6.5. Cincy wins outright 23-14.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -7
O/U: 39.5
Seattle is a tough place to play, but can I really give 7 points to a team that has been so awful all year long? Tampa beat Green Bay, so we know they have some talent. As teams have figured out Freeman, though, the Bucs offense has become very stoppable. And the defense isn't very good either. If the Bucs beat the spread, I'll bet they win outright. I won't be totally shocked if it happens, as the Seahawks may very well have given up already, but the Bucs are only 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against Seattle. I think the homefield advantage will mean a lot, and if the Seahawks show up at all, I expect them to dominate.
My Pick: Seahawks -7. Seattle puts on a show for the home fans 34-13.
Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: 0
O/U: 40
Green Bay hasn't beaten any really great teams, but the Steelers have long since dropped off the list of teams considered "great". Pittsburgh's offense has been awful, and Green Bay has the #2 ranked defense in the league. Polamalu's absence means that Rodgers may have a chance to pick apart the Steeler D, but Green Bay has an awful O-line, so you never know if he'll have any time to throw the ball. For me, this one boils down to whether or not I trust the Steelers enough to pick them right now. Green Bay should find a way in the playoffs even with a loss, and although everyone says the Steelers are done, they aren't yet mathematically eliminated. If they win out and get a bunch of help, they could still be a playoff team. I expect them to play hard, especially at home, and I just don't feel comfortable picking the Packers to beat the tough, hard-nosed Steelers one week after outlasting the tough, hard-nosed Bears (despite them being a little "softer" than in years past).
My Pick: Steelers 20-17.
Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Vikings -7
O/U: 43
The Vikings are trying to wrap up the bye so they can start resting QB Strom Thurmond so that he'll be somewhat fresh for the postseason. Carolina is done, and although they'd love to make the fans happy with a home win, the Vikings are really, really good. Carolina has a good pass D and a crappy run D...so what do you think will happen? AP will run all over them. To beat the Vikings you need defensive balance. And Delhomme is still questionable, which means the Vikings D will have a field day against Matt Moore. Who? Exactly.
My Pick: Vikings -7. I'm back on Minny's bandwagon. Minnesota 33-16.
Monday, December 21st:
New York Giants @ Washington Redskins
Line: Giants -3
O/U: 43
The Skins kept it close last time, but with the Giants needing a win to avoid certain playoff elimination, they're going to be playing with a lot of intensity. Green Bay is almost certain to get one wildcard spot, as they'll finish at least 10-6 unless they somehow blow 3 straight after losing only 4 to this point. Which means that the Giants are chasing whoever doesn't win the NFC East for the final wildcard spot. They hold the tiebreaker over Dallas, so if they can win out and watch Dallas drop at least 1 more game (highly likely) or if the Giants lose one more and watch Dallas lose twice (far less likely), then they could still get in. But that one potential loss needs to be reserved for week 17 in Minnesota, just in case, as that's the best team left on the Giants' schedule. A loss to Washington would be enough for me to declare them officially dead.
My Pick: Giants -3. New York wins 30-17.
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