Week 4: 7-6 (31-28-1)
Linebusters: 2-3 (8-12)
Straight Picks (w/o line): 7-6 (36-24)
Some major upsets this week really threw everything for a loop. Rodgers threw 3 picks, KC showed up big, Houston played with the Jags, The Skins showed they can play defense even without Taylor, and the Bears put up points against Philly. What? Come on. This season has defined the word "unpredictable". At least I figured out the NFC North.
NO WAY!?
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Broncos -10
O/U: 46.5
LINEBUSTER!
My Pick: Denver -10. Broncos coast, 38-10.
Result: Chiefs 33-19
Seriously? Before the season, I said I hated Denver because last year they seemed to do the opposite of whatever I predicted, no matter who they played. I rescinded that theory, but may have done so prematurely. They got lucky to screw me on the game against San Diego, and then totally crapped the bed against Kansas City. The league's top offense was shut down by the #29 defense in the league. The league's #27 offense scored 33 points, albeit against the league's 3rd-worst D. It should not have gone down that way, but it did.
They did it! (but don't expect it to happen again...)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -3.5
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Browns +3.5. Romeo, Romeo, where for art thou Romeo...the Browns finally put up points and win 24-16.
Result: Browns 20-12
I knew the Browns would get things together at some point. Unfortunately for Browns fans, they still only put up 20 points. Not exactly an offensive explosion. If they can't do better than that against the Bengals' D, they're in real trouble.
Jags Continue to Struggle
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jags -7.5
O/U: 42
My Pick: Jags -7.5. Jacksonville 27-13.
Result: Jags 30-27 (ot)
Jacksonville has two wins, both on late field goals. One against a Houston team that isn't good, and one against an Indy team that keeps pretending not to be good. They have lost to the Titans and Bills, both undefeated, but both doing far better than expected. The Jags are, at best, a one-and-done playoff team right now.
Defense Anyone?
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -1.5
O/U: 45
My Pick: Jets -1.5. New York 33-24.
Result: Jets 56-35
I called a shootout, but 91 points? Yikes. The Jets set a franchise record for points in a quarter (34 in the 2nd), and the Cards proved that they're still not ready to be an elite team. Too many turnovers and mistakes...it seems that whenever Arizona gets anything going, like a 2-0 start, they blow it and fall back to mediocrity. I just hope they make the playoffs, as they haven't been since 1998 (longest active streak).
No Bush, No Problem
San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -6
O/U: 48.5
My Pick: Saints -6. New Orleans can't be at the bottom of the NFC south for long. Saints win 34-27.
Result: Saints 31-17
Yeah, I know, Bush played...but according to my fantasy stats for the week, he may as well have sat this one out. Yet the Saints were still able to put together a big second quarter and hold on for the win. It's going to be a fight in the NFC south...Carolina, New Orleans, and Tampa may all be in the hunt come mid-december!
Steve Smith is Back!
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -7
O/U: 39.5
My Pick: Panthers -7. Carolina wins a game without having to come from behind late, 24-13.
Result: Panthers 24-9
Solid rush defense will stop the Falcons every time, and Carolina sure can stop the run. Smith's TD, followed by the reconciliatory game ball donation to Ken Lucas, may be just what he needed to break out of his shell. He'll be a factor from here on out.
Welcome to the NFL, Mr. Wilf
Minnesota Vikings @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 36
My Pick: Vikings +3. Minnesota 23-17.
Result: Titans 30-17
He made some solid off-season acquisitions, but Zygi Wilf must now realize that it's not easy to build a super bowl contending team. His preseason aspirations were a bit high, and now, at 1-3, he may make some more rash decisions, as he did when he pressured the coaching staff to start Gus Frerotte. Tennessee is really, really good. They've beaten solid opposition, and are undoubtedly for real. Where they came from, however, is still in question. Nobody expected Fisher's club to be a premier team at this point in the season.
Dammit, Rodgers
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Bucs -1
O/U: 43
LINEBUSTER!
My Pick: Packers +1. Green Bay coasts 30-17.
Result: Bucs 30-21
If you throw 3 INTs, of course you'll lose. Granted, Griese did too. But the expectations for him were not as high, and Griese's mistakes were factored into the prediction. I just didn't expect Rodgers to play so bad. Without him, though, the Packers could be in trouble, so let's hope his shoulder heals quickly.
The Blowout that Wasn't
Buffalo Bills @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Bills -8
O/U: 41.5
LINEBUSTER!
My Pick: Bills -8. Buffalo stomps the Rams 38-12.
Result: 31-14
The final score does not reflect how close this game was. Buffalo was not as flat offensively as they were against the Raiders, and Marshawn Lynch played very well, but the Buffalo defense didn't show up until the Rams had already been in the endzone twice. The Bills don't have the offense to pull off large comebacks against good defenses, so they'll need to come out of the locker room ready to go from now on.
Are they Really this Bad?
San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Chargers -9
O/U: 45.5
LINEBUSTER!
My Pick: Chargers -9. The Chargers throw Lane Kiffin a going away party, 37-13.
Result: Chargers 28-18
The Chargers continue to struggle, and once again the Raiders came out strong, but faded down the stretch. We'll find out in a few weeks, when Buffalo heads to San Diego, whether or not the Chargers can beat a solid opponent.
Where did that come from?
Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -11
O/U: 46
LINEBUSTER!
My Pick: Cowboys -11. Dallas blows out the Skins 41-10.
Result: Skins 26-24
First of all, the Dallas defense knows as well as anyone that Santana Moss has always been a problem for them...so why wouldn't they get better coverage on him? I'm a little worried about the Dallas D if they're letting the Redskins move down the field with ease. The true story of this game was Washington's ability to throw blitz packages at Romo and generate solid pressure despite the absence of Jason Taylor. Dallas had the second-best offense in the league, but was unable to get anything going for most of the game. It'll be interesting to see how this division irons out, as there is clearly a ton of parity from top to bottom.
Come On
Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears
Line: Eagles -3
O/U: 41
My Pick: Eagles -3. Philly 31-9.
Result: Bears 24-20
Da Bears. Back and Forth. Beating good teams, blowing big leads against other good teams. They'll be tough to figure out the rest of the way. McNabb should have picked apart that Chicago pass defense, and the Philly D must be very upset with itself after allowing the Bears to put up 24 points. They also gave ESPN.com the chance to recommend Kyle Orton as a fantasy quarterback for those who are struggling in deep leagues. Orton shouldn't even be in fantasy-related conversations.
Give Those Trainers a Pay Raise!
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -7
O/U: 35.5
My Pick: Ravens +7. Baltimore shows that they can beat teams from outside of Ohio, 16-13.
Result: Steelers 23-20 (ot)
Baltimore didn't win, but the Ravens certainly showed that they are going to be a tough team to play all season long. That is, of course, assuming they can get healthy. By the end of this game, each team only had one running back left! Good thing they didn't go too far into OT. The Ravens D looks like the shut-down, fighting, tear off your face sort of D that Balitmore sported in its super bowl year. They'll have to hold up physically to carry Flacco through his inevitable growing pains. I was impressed with Flacco's composure and ability to lead the Ravens down the field late for a TD, but he'll have some stumbles along the way.
BYES: DET, MIA, NE, SEA, IND, NYG
Monday, September 29, 2008
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
PREVIEW - WEEK FOUR
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Broncos -10
O/U: 46.5
LINEBUSTER!
This is a no-brainer. Denver doesn't need defense to beat KC. The Chiefs will still only score 10 points or so. The O/U is a close call, simply because it is based on whether or not the Chiefs score. I'm going to go over.
Denver -10. Broncos coast, 38-10.
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -3.5
O/U: 44.5
Cleveland has gotten no production out of its offense yet this year. I thought they'd beat the Ravens, simply because the offense is due for a breakout game. They're still due. Maybe heading into the land without defense (AKA Cincy) will get them out of their hole. Then again, the Bengals almost beat the Giants last week. I'm going to say the Giants just came out flat, and aren't that spectacular in the first place.
Browns +3.5. Romeo, Romeo, where for art thou Romeo...the Browns finally put up points and win 24-16.
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jags -7.5
O/U: 42
The Jags are one of the many 1-2 teams that we all know are far better than their record indicates. Houston has the personnel to beat a good team, but I don't think this is their week. Jacksonville is too desperate. But can the Jags score enough points to cover the spread? Go under.
Jags -7.5. Jacksonville 27-13.
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -1.5
O/U: 45
After faltering against the Redskins, will the Cards revert back to their old ways? 3-1 would be a rare thing in the desert. My X-Factor is that Arizona is flying all the way across the country for the second week in a row. That's gotta be taxing. These two teams could go big, so bet over.
Jets -1.5. New York 33-24.
San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -6
O/U: 48.5
We saw both of these teams put up big numbers last week, so bet over. San Francisco's defense has been much better than New Orleans', but that has been against weaker competition.
Saints -6. New Orleans can't be at the bottom of the NFC south for long. Saints win 34-27.
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -7
O/U: 39.5
Carolina's offense is ranked fairly low, but they have played two of the league's top defenses in successive weeks. Atlanta's D has been good, but has played against 2 of the league's worst offenses. I'd like to go with the Falcons, but Delhomme is just too magical. He finds a way to win.
Panthers -7. Carolina wins a game without having to come from behind late, 24-13.
Minnesota Vikings @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 36
Both of these teams rely heavily on the run game, and while the Titans boast the league's 4th best defense statistically, they are only 10th in rush defense. Minnesota is 3rd. Unless Kerry Collins kills the Vikings through the air, Peterson should be able to carry the Vikings to a .500 record. Not to mention, Tennessee is 3-0 and can afford to lose one. Minny needs another win.
Vikings +3. Minnesota 23-17.
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Bucs -1
O/U: 43
LINEBUSTER!
What does Vegas know that I don't? This seems like an easy call. Both teams have similar offensive and defensive stats so far, but the Packers have played a more difficult schedule. Coming off a loss at home, they'll want to rebound. Tampa is good, but the Packers should be one of the league's elite teams, provided Rodgers keeps performing well.
Packers +1. Green Bay coasts 30-17.
Buffalo Bills @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Bills -8
O/U: 41.5
LINEBUSTER!
I know I paid for going with the Bills to win big last week, but they came out completely flat and found a way to win. I don't think they'll be underestimating the Rams. With a change at QB in St. Louis the offense may be even more out of sync. Bills put up a bunch of points.
Bills -8. Buffalo stomps the Rams 38-12.
San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Chargers -9
O/U: 45.5
LINEBUSTER!
It's the same line as last week for San Diego. It was good luck then, I expect it to be again. How the Raiders could put up such a fight against the Bills with such turmoil at the helm is beyond me, but I doubt it will happen again. San Diego has to get that defense on track, though, if they want to be a threat in the postseason.
Chargers -9. The Chargers throw Lane Kiffin a going away party, 37-13.
Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -11
O/U: 46
LINEBUSTER!
No Jason Taylor? No way, Washington. Romo's going to have fun this week. Just be careful when you go to their place, Dallas. It won't be so easy next time.
Cowboys -11. Dallas blows out the Skins 41-10.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears
Line: Eagles -3
O/U: 41
This could be a sixth linebuster, but in the interest of keeping things even, I won't call it as such. Did you know Chicago has the 28th passing defense in the league? And that Philly comes to town with the 3rd best passing attack in the league? That could spell trouble in the Windy City. As long as McNabb isn't affected by his chest contusion from last week, the Eagles will cruise, even if Brian Westbrook can't play (questionable-ankle).
Eagles -3. Philly 31-9.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -7
O/U: 35.5
Upset Special! Without Wee Willie Parker, the Steelers just may lose this one! The Ravens have the #1 defense in the league (Steelers are #3, so go under), and I'm not sure if Big Ben will be able to throw on the league's best pass defense (by far...they allow 50 ypg less by air than the next closest team). Keep in mind, though, that Baltimore's numbers are from only two games, and that those two games were against the Browns and Bengals. We'll see how good they really are this week. All I'm saying is to be prepared for a possible upset.
Ravens +7. Baltimore shows that they can beat teams from outside of Ohio, 16-13.
BYES: DET, MIA, NE, SEA, IND, NYG
Line: Broncos -10
O/U: 46.5
LINEBUSTER!
This is a no-brainer. Denver doesn't need defense to beat KC. The Chiefs will still only score 10 points or so. The O/U is a close call, simply because it is based on whether or not the Chiefs score. I'm going to go over.
Denver -10. Broncos coast, 38-10.
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -3.5
O/U: 44.5
Cleveland has gotten no production out of its offense yet this year. I thought they'd beat the Ravens, simply because the offense is due for a breakout game. They're still due. Maybe heading into the land without defense (AKA Cincy) will get them out of their hole. Then again, the Bengals almost beat the Giants last week. I'm going to say the Giants just came out flat, and aren't that spectacular in the first place.
Browns +3.5. Romeo, Romeo, where for art thou Romeo...the Browns finally put up points and win 24-16.
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jags -7.5
O/U: 42
The Jags are one of the many 1-2 teams that we all know are far better than their record indicates. Houston has the personnel to beat a good team, but I don't think this is their week. Jacksonville is too desperate. But can the Jags score enough points to cover the spread? Go under.
Jags -7.5. Jacksonville 27-13.
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -1.5
O/U: 45
After faltering against the Redskins, will the Cards revert back to their old ways? 3-1 would be a rare thing in the desert. My X-Factor is that Arizona is flying all the way across the country for the second week in a row. That's gotta be taxing. These two teams could go big, so bet over.
Jets -1.5. New York 33-24.
San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -6
O/U: 48.5
We saw both of these teams put up big numbers last week, so bet over. San Francisco's defense has been much better than New Orleans', but that has been against weaker competition.
Saints -6. New Orleans can't be at the bottom of the NFC south for long. Saints win 34-27.
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -7
O/U: 39.5
Carolina's offense is ranked fairly low, but they have played two of the league's top defenses in successive weeks. Atlanta's D has been good, but has played against 2 of the league's worst offenses. I'd like to go with the Falcons, but Delhomme is just too magical. He finds a way to win.
Panthers -7. Carolina wins a game without having to come from behind late, 24-13.
Minnesota Vikings @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 36
Both of these teams rely heavily on the run game, and while the Titans boast the league's 4th best defense statistically, they are only 10th in rush defense. Minnesota is 3rd. Unless Kerry Collins kills the Vikings through the air, Peterson should be able to carry the Vikings to a .500 record. Not to mention, Tennessee is 3-0 and can afford to lose one. Minny needs another win.
Vikings +3. Minnesota 23-17.
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Bucs -1
O/U: 43
LINEBUSTER!
What does Vegas know that I don't? This seems like an easy call. Both teams have similar offensive and defensive stats so far, but the Packers have played a more difficult schedule. Coming off a loss at home, they'll want to rebound. Tampa is good, but the Packers should be one of the league's elite teams, provided Rodgers keeps performing well.
Packers +1. Green Bay coasts 30-17.
Buffalo Bills @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Bills -8
O/U: 41.5
LINEBUSTER!
I know I paid for going with the Bills to win big last week, but they came out completely flat and found a way to win. I don't think they'll be underestimating the Rams. With a change at QB in St. Louis the offense may be even more out of sync. Bills put up a bunch of points.
Bills -8. Buffalo stomps the Rams 38-12.
San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Chargers -9
O/U: 45.5
LINEBUSTER!
It's the same line as last week for San Diego. It was good luck then, I expect it to be again. How the Raiders could put up such a fight against the Bills with such turmoil at the helm is beyond me, but I doubt it will happen again. San Diego has to get that defense on track, though, if they want to be a threat in the postseason.
Chargers -9. The Chargers throw Lane Kiffin a going away party, 37-13.
Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -11
O/U: 46
LINEBUSTER!
No Jason Taylor? No way, Washington. Romo's going to have fun this week. Just be careful when you go to their place, Dallas. It won't be so easy next time.
Cowboys -11. Dallas blows out the Skins 41-10.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears
Line: Eagles -3
O/U: 41
This could be a sixth linebuster, but in the interest of keeping things even, I won't call it as such. Did you know Chicago has the 28th passing defense in the league? And that Philly comes to town with the 3rd best passing attack in the league? That could spell trouble in the Windy City. As long as McNabb isn't affected by his chest contusion from last week, the Eagles will cruise, even if Brian Westbrook can't play (questionable-ankle).
Eagles -3. Philly 31-9.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -7
O/U: 35.5
Upset Special! Without Wee Willie Parker, the Steelers just may lose this one! The Ravens have the #1 defense in the league (Steelers are #3, so go under), and I'm not sure if Big Ben will be able to throw on the league's best pass defense (by far...they allow 50 ypg less by air than the next closest team). Keep in mind, though, that Baltimore's numbers are from only two games, and that those two games were against the Browns and Bengals. We'll see how good they really are this week. All I'm saying is to be prepared for a possible upset.
Ravens +7. Baltimore shows that they can beat teams from outside of Ohio, 16-13.
BYES: DET, MIA, NE, SEA, IND, NYG
Monday, September 22, 2008
RECAP - WEEK THREE
This Week (vs. line): 9-7
Linebusters: 2-3 (6-9)
Overall: 24-22-1
Straight Picks (w/o line): 12-4 (29-18)
Now you know why I don't get paid to do this. Last year, I was right most of the time. I swear. This year, teams are choking, late comebacks are blowing everything up, and there are a handful of teams that are impossible to pick. I'm not in practice on Friday. How the hell can I know whether or not half of these teams are going to bother showing up on Sunday?
Well, there's one team that's easy...
Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -6
O/U: 36.
Falcons -6. I'll take the under, and Atlanta to win it 20-10.
Result: Falcons 38-14
The Chiefs are going to be pretty easy to pick against all year. The Falcons, on the other hand, could beat the spread in some games they shouldn't. In this game, they looked good again. At this point, I'm ready to don them the "new Browns", a team that alternated between good and bad performances for the first 15 or so weeks last season. So next week they'll lose!
WHEW!
Oakland Raiders @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Bills -9.5
O/U: 36.5
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Bills -9.5. I'll take the over, and Buffalo 34-7.
Result: Bills 24-23
How was this game close? Well, Buffalo didn't show up. Oakland played well, and the Bills were flat. In retrospect, I'm pleased with my Bills, because they showed that even when they play like crap, they can still find a way to get the "W". Another team that had this unique "ability" was the 2007 Pats...they didn't show up against the Ravens, but still left with a win. No, the Bills won't be undefeated. But they could be very good.
How long can this last?
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -5
O/U: 39
Texans +5.5. I think the Titans may win by a field goal in a close, low scoring game. Tennessee 20-17
Result: Titans 31-12
I am very impressed with the Titans, and now, having handily beaten a team they were supposed to beat, which is always a tough mental challenge, I'm ready to say that they're for real. The Texans held in there for a while, but just couldn't sustain it. Hopefully they'll put it all together and get at least a few wins this year.
See, I knew I shouldn't have gotten behind the Giants
Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -13.5
O/U: 41.5
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Giants -13.5. Take the over. G-men win big 38-13.
Result: Giants 26-23 (ot)
Every day I hear about how great the Giants are. At first, I didn't believe it. But I was indoctrinated to believe that, at 2-0, they were even better than last year. I should have known better, and from here on out, I will be more careful. The Bengals played OK, but they're still an awful team. They have the talent to win some games they shouldn't, but it will have to involve, much like this game did, a better team that decides not to show up.
Told ya.
Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Redskins
Line: Skins -3
O/U: 42
Skins -3. Take the under. Skins win 23-14.
Result: Skins 24-17
This "told ya so" is two-fold. First, I told you the Skins D was pretty darn good. Second, I told you that the Cards won two games against poor defensive schemes, and that the Redskins could stop the Cards' passing attack. The NFC East still has not lost outside of the conference. The Redskins are a good team, but their finish will depend on who they can beat within the conference. The Cards are a playoff team.
Parity
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -12.5
O/U: 35.5
Dolphins +12.5. I'm going with the over, and the Pats 24-13.
Result: Dolphins 38-13
"Any Given Sunday" has proven to be true yet again. Props to Joey Porter for backing up what he said early in the week. The Pats need to worry, because now teams will follow the Dolphins gameplan and learn how to shut down Cassel and the offense. Of course, the Pats aren't really as bad as this game makes them look. Conversely, the Fins still aren't that good. They had a great gameplan, and executed it perfectly. They'll be much improved from last year, but not as good as they looked Sunday.
Fear the Pirate
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -3
O/U: 35.5
Bucs +3. Tampa is better than advertised. Go under. Bucs win 17-10.
Result: Bucs 27-24 (ot)
The key thing to take away from this game is that, even against one of the league's better defenses, the Bucs now have enough offense to pull off a late-game comeback. They'll be in a fight for the division with the Saints, and the loser of that battle will have the only shot at a wild card slot outside of the NFC East. Chicago won't be the worst team in the NFC North, but they need to find a way to hold onto late-game leads. With that defense, it shouldn't be this hard for them to win games in which they hold fourth quarter leads.
Determination
Carolina Panthers @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -3.5
O/U: 37.5
Vikings -3.5. Goin' over, Minny 26-21.
Result: Vikings 20-10
This game was won on sheer will. After allowing 10 points early on, the Viking defense became impenetrable. They are ranked as one of the best defenses in the league, and they showed up Sunday. The offense wasn't great, but once Tarvaris gets back in there (and he will...), as long as the defense can keep them in games, they can win. Carolina is a solid team, but I will wait until they play the Saints or Bucs before I say that they could be in the playoff hunt.
Why bother playing the games?
St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -9.5
O/U: 44
Seahawks -9.5. I'm going under, as the Seahawks will blow out the Rams, but won't necessarily put up a ton of points. Seattle 27-13.
Result: Seahawks 37-13
Though I predicted this, if you're St. Louis, what are you thinking? How do you get up to practice every day? They just go out, week after week, and get steamrolled. Unless they play the Chiefs, they might not win. That is sad. Seattle needed that win. We'll see if it helps them get back some confidence.
Speaking of useless...
Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -4
O/U: 46
Lions +4. Go over. Lions win 31-27.
Result: 49ers 31-13
Ok, so San Fran is a bit better than I thought. But the Lions are totally useless. What is up? They have receivers. Kitna should be able to get them the ball. This team scares me, because one of these days they'll show up ready to play, and might beat somebody. Until then, though, all I can do is pick against them.
That Boy's Got a Lot of Quit in him...
New Orleans Saints @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -5.5
O/U: 51
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Denver -5.5. I'm going over, and taking the Broncos 33-24.
Result: Denver 34-32
The Broncos blew another 21-3 lead, yet got lucky and still won. Last week, it was the ref. This week, it was Martin Gramatica's miss. One of the most powerful offenses in the league scored only 10 points in the second half against a poor defense, and didn't score at all in the fourth quarter. Why? Because God forbid they beat the spread. Jackasses. The Saints showed good offense, and the defense played pretty well when it needed to. If the defense can get psyched up to perform well earlier in games, this team could surprise some people.
The NFC East is GOOD
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -3
O/U: 45
Eagles -3. I'm going with the over. Philly wins it 31-23.
Result: Eagles 15-6
These are both good football teams, but Philly's performance so far shows just how spectacular the NFC East really is. The only concern is if Donovan McNabb is hurt. He missed a few plays Sunday, and if that becomes a nagging injury, he may not be able to continue playing at the level he has been, which may be the best he's played in his career.
How are the Colts Losing?
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -5.5
O/U: 41.5
Indy -5.5. Go under. The Colts win it 24-17.
Result: Jags 23-21
Seriously. What's up, Indy? New England falls on hard times, and you'd expect the Colts, with all of that talent, to become the class of the league and the team to beat. They didn't. For some reason, the offense is just OK, and the defense is very beatable. The Jags needed this win, but so did the Colts. Now two teams that were expected to not just be playoff teams, but Super Bowl contenders, are 1-2 and looking up at the 3-0 Titans.
Cleveland Does Not Rock
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -2
O/U: 38.5
Browns +2. I'm going over. Cleveland 27-13.
Result: Ravens 28-10
I waffled back and forth on this game, but decided to go with the Browns because they are desperate, needed the win, and had enough offense last season to put up points. So much for that. The Ravens are a solid team, as usual, because they have a great defense that can keep them in any game, a solid rushing attack, and a young quarterback who is playing well. Sorry Ohio, but it's going to be a long year.
Best Team in the NFL?
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Cowboys -3
O/U: 51.5
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Dallas -3. Go Over. Dallas puts a hurtin on the Pack, 35-17.
Result: Cowboys 27-16
I love Tony Romo's attitude. Before the game, he spoke about how excited he was to be at Lambeau, and said that the Cowboys weren't looking ahead, and instead were just having fun with each game. We teach our children that winning isn't everything, and that they should just go out and have fun. It's amazing to see people at the NFL level who still try to have fun when they play. It actually makes the game more fun to watch. Green Bay will be fine. They're just not a good as the Cowboys.
Monday Night Shootout
New York Jets @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -9
O/U: 44
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
My Pick: Chargers -9. I'll take the under. San Diego finally gets a W 27-14.
Result: Chargers 48-29
Guess I shouldn't have taken the under. What a crazy game offensively. San Diego has put up 24, 38, and now 48 in their first 3 games, so clearly LT's struggles haven't impacted the offense too much. The defense allowed too many points again, though, so San Diego has something to worry about. The Jets are a .500 football team, possibly worse. I was impressed by Favre's 3 TDs, but he won't do that every week, so if the defense is going to be this porous, the Jets are going to have issues.
Linebusters: 2-3 (6-9)
Overall: 24-22-1
Straight Picks (w/o line): 12-4 (29-18)
Now you know why I don't get paid to do this. Last year, I was right most of the time. I swear. This year, teams are choking, late comebacks are blowing everything up, and there are a handful of teams that are impossible to pick. I'm not in practice on Friday. How the hell can I know whether or not half of these teams are going to bother showing up on Sunday?
Well, there's one team that's easy...
Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -6
O/U: 36.
Falcons -6. I'll take the under, and Atlanta to win it 20-10.
Result: Falcons 38-14
The Chiefs are going to be pretty easy to pick against all year. The Falcons, on the other hand, could beat the spread in some games they shouldn't. In this game, they looked good again. At this point, I'm ready to don them the "new Browns", a team that alternated between good and bad performances for the first 15 or so weeks last season. So next week they'll lose!
WHEW!
Oakland Raiders @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Bills -9.5
O/U: 36.5
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Bills -9.5. I'll take the over, and Buffalo 34-7.
Result: Bills 24-23
How was this game close? Well, Buffalo didn't show up. Oakland played well, and the Bills were flat. In retrospect, I'm pleased with my Bills, because they showed that even when they play like crap, they can still find a way to get the "W". Another team that had this unique "ability" was the 2007 Pats...they didn't show up against the Ravens, but still left with a win. No, the Bills won't be undefeated. But they could be very good.
How long can this last?
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -5
O/U: 39
Texans +5.5. I think the Titans may win by a field goal in a close, low scoring game. Tennessee 20-17
Result: Titans 31-12
I am very impressed with the Titans, and now, having handily beaten a team they were supposed to beat, which is always a tough mental challenge, I'm ready to say that they're for real. The Texans held in there for a while, but just couldn't sustain it. Hopefully they'll put it all together and get at least a few wins this year.
See, I knew I shouldn't have gotten behind the Giants
Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -13.5
O/U: 41.5
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Giants -13.5. Take the over. G-men win big 38-13.
Result: Giants 26-23 (ot)
Every day I hear about how great the Giants are. At first, I didn't believe it. But I was indoctrinated to believe that, at 2-0, they were even better than last year. I should have known better, and from here on out, I will be more careful. The Bengals played OK, but they're still an awful team. They have the talent to win some games they shouldn't, but it will have to involve, much like this game did, a better team that decides not to show up.
Told ya.
Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Redskins
Line: Skins -3
O/U: 42
Skins -3. Take the under. Skins win 23-14.
Result: Skins 24-17
This "told ya so" is two-fold. First, I told you the Skins D was pretty darn good. Second, I told you that the Cards won two games against poor defensive schemes, and that the Redskins could stop the Cards' passing attack. The NFC East still has not lost outside of the conference. The Redskins are a good team, but their finish will depend on who they can beat within the conference. The Cards are a playoff team.
Parity
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -12.5
O/U: 35.5
Dolphins +12.5. I'm going with the over, and the Pats 24-13.
Result: Dolphins 38-13
"Any Given Sunday" has proven to be true yet again. Props to Joey Porter for backing up what he said early in the week. The Pats need to worry, because now teams will follow the Dolphins gameplan and learn how to shut down Cassel and the offense. Of course, the Pats aren't really as bad as this game makes them look. Conversely, the Fins still aren't that good. They had a great gameplan, and executed it perfectly. They'll be much improved from last year, but not as good as they looked Sunday.
Fear the Pirate
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -3
O/U: 35.5
Bucs +3. Tampa is better than advertised. Go under. Bucs win 17-10.
Result: Bucs 27-24 (ot)
The key thing to take away from this game is that, even against one of the league's better defenses, the Bucs now have enough offense to pull off a late-game comeback. They'll be in a fight for the division with the Saints, and the loser of that battle will have the only shot at a wild card slot outside of the NFC East. Chicago won't be the worst team in the NFC North, but they need to find a way to hold onto late-game leads. With that defense, it shouldn't be this hard for them to win games in which they hold fourth quarter leads.
Determination
Carolina Panthers @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -3.5
O/U: 37.5
Vikings -3.5. Goin' over, Minny 26-21.
Result: Vikings 20-10
This game was won on sheer will. After allowing 10 points early on, the Viking defense became impenetrable. They are ranked as one of the best defenses in the league, and they showed up Sunday. The offense wasn't great, but once Tarvaris gets back in there (and he will...), as long as the defense can keep them in games, they can win. Carolina is a solid team, but I will wait until they play the Saints or Bucs before I say that they could be in the playoff hunt.
Why bother playing the games?
St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -9.5
O/U: 44
Seahawks -9.5. I'm going under, as the Seahawks will blow out the Rams, but won't necessarily put up a ton of points. Seattle 27-13.
Result: Seahawks 37-13
Though I predicted this, if you're St. Louis, what are you thinking? How do you get up to practice every day? They just go out, week after week, and get steamrolled. Unless they play the Chiefs, they might not win. That is sad. Seattle needed that win. We'll see if it helps them get back some confidence.
Speaking of useless...
Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -4
O/U: 46
Lions +4. Go over. Lions win 31-27.
Result: 49ers 31-13
Ok, so San Fran is a bit better than I thought. But the Lions are totally useless. What is up? They have receivers. Kitna should be able to get them the ball. This team scares me, because one of these days they'll show up ready to play, and might beat somebody. Until then, though, all I can do is pick against them.
That Boy's Got a Lot of Quit in him...
New Orleans Saints @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -5.5
O/U: 51
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Denver -5.5. I'm going over, and taking the Broncos 33-24.
Result: Denver 34-32
The Broncos blew another 21-3 lead, yet got lucky and still won. Last week, it was the ref. This week, it was Martin Gramatica's miss. One of the most powerful offenses in the league scored only 10 points in the second half against a poor defense, and didn't score at all in the fourth quarter. Why? Because God forbid they beat the spread. Jackasses. The Saints showed good offense, and the defense played pretty well when it needed to. If the defense can get psyched up to perform well earlier in games, this team could surprise some people.
The NFC East is GOOD
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -3
O/U: 45
Eagles -3. I'm going with the over. Philly wins it 31-23.
Result: Eagles 15-6
These are both good football teams, but Philly's performance so far shows just how spectacular the NFC East really is. The only concern is if Donovan McNabb is hurt. He missed a few plays Sunday, and if that becomes a nagging injury, he may not be able to continue playing at the level he has been, which may be the best he's played in his career.
How are the Colts Losing?
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -5.5
O/U: 41.5
Indy -5.5. Go under. The Colts win it 24-17.
Result: Jags 23-21
Seriously. What's up, Indy? New England falls on hard times, and you'd expect the Colts, with all of that talent, to become the class of the league and the team to beat. They didn't. For some reason, the offense is just OK, and the defense is very beatable. The Jags needed this win, but so did the Colts. Now two teams that were expected to not just be playoff teams, but Super Bowl contenders, are 1-2 and looking up at the 3-0 Titans.
Cleveland Does Not Rock
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -2
O/U: 38.5
Browns +2. I'm going over. Cleveland 27-13.
Result: Ravens 28-10
I waffled back and forth on this game, but decided to go with the Browns because they are desperate, needed the win, and had enough offense last season to put up points. So much for that. The Ravens are a solid team, as usual, because they have a great defense that can keep them in any game, a solid rushing attack, and a young quarterback who is playing well. Sorry Ohio, but it's going to be a long year.
Best Team in the NFL?
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Cowboys -3
O/U: 51.5
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Dallas -3. Go Over. Dallas puts a hurtin on the Pack, 35-17.
Result: Cowboys 27-16
I love Tony Romo's attitude. Before the game, he spoke about how excited he was to be at Lambeau, and said that the Cowboys weren't looking ahead, and instead were just having fun with each game. We teach our children that winning isn't everything, and that they should just go out and have fun. It's amazing to see people at the NFL level who still try to have fun when they play. It actually makes the game more fun to watch. Green Bay will be fine. They're just not a good as the Cowboys.
Monday Night Shootout
New York Jets @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -9
O/U: 44
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
My Pick: Chargers -9. I'll take the under. San Diego finally gets a W 27-14.
Result: Chargers 48-29
Guess I shouldn't have taken the under. What a crazy game offensively. San Diego has put up 24, 38, and now 48 in their first 3 games, so clearly LT's struggles haven't impacted the offense too much. The defense allowed too many points again, though, so San Diego has something to worry about. The Jets are a .500 football team, possibly worse. I was impressed by Favre's 3 TDs, but he won't do that every week, so if the defense is going to be this porous, the Jets are going to have issues.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
PREVIEW - WEEK THREE
Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -6
O/U: 36.5
I was going to go for the upset because Larry Johnson is getting pissy and is going to explode for 150 yards at some point, but KC is playing some third-string QB named Thigpen. The Falcons will be able to run the ball against KC, and Ryan can get a little experience throwing against a lesser defense. Plus Atlanta's at home. Falcons -6. I'll take the under, and Atlanta to win it 20-10.
Oakland Raiders @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Bills -9.5
O/U: 36.5
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
I love being able to pick the Bills to win games this year. They have a legitimate shot at every game the way they're playing right now. One of the Bills' biggest victories ever was in the 1991 AFC championship over the Raiders, 51-3. Will we see that again? Maybe not quite that much offense, but domination nonetheless. Bills -9.5. I'll take the over, and Buffalo 34-7.
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -5
O/U: 39
Tennessee has looked good, but the Bengals aren't exactly the league's stiffest competition. Houston is very tough to call right now. Will their heads be in the clouds after dealing with the aftermath of Hurricane Ike, or will they come out and play great thanks to an extra week off and the added emotion of playing for the Houston community? I'm thinking the latter. But will that be enough to beat the Titans? I think this is going to be a very close game, and though I hesitate to go against the Titans again this week, I will. Texans +5.5. I think the Titans may win by a field goal in a close, low scoring game. Tennessee 20-17
Cincinatti Bengals @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -13.5
O/U: 41.5
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Could the Giants get an easier start to the season? The Bengals are terrible right now, and heading into Giants Stadium isn't going to help them turn it around. Giants -13.5. Take the over. G-men win big 38-13.
Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Redskins
Line: Skins -3
O/U: 42
The Cardinals have looked good, but they haven't yet faced a great defense. I believe that Washington has a premier defense, so we'll see what the Cards can do. My guess is they lose, especially since the Skins are at home and recently figured out how to play offense. Skins -3. Take the under. Skins win 23-14.
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -12.5
O/U: 35.5
Is Joey Porter really that dumb? Now that he's given the Pats something to play for, they may beat this spread. It's the Dolphins. They are not good. They didn't show up at all against the Cards, but only lost to Favre and the Jets by 6. I think the Pats will control the game, but with Maroney a little banged up, I'm not sure they can score enough points to win by 13, and Pennington has had some success against the Pats D in the past. Dolphins +12.5. I'm going with the over, and the Pats 24-13.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -3
O/U: 35.5
How can I go with the Bears after their collapse last week against the Panthers? Both of these teams have great D, but going purely on offensive potential against good defense, I'd have to give the edge to the Bucs. The reason the Bears had a lead against Carolina was special teams play. You cannot expect your special teams to score points in every game. Bucs +3. Tampa is better than advertised. Go under. Bucs win 17-10.
Carolina Panthers @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -3.5
O/U: 37.5
Adrian Peterson tweaked his hamstring in practice this week, and though he'll likely play, he may not be quite as effective. The Vikings also start Gus Frerotte. Though Minnesota needs a win, Carolina is out to prove that their 2-0 start isn't a fluke, and that they really are a contender. Plus Steve Smith is back. The key is this is a must-win in Minnesota, and the Vikings made the call to go with Frerotte early enough to get him all the snaps in practice, so he should be on the same page with his receivers. Vikings -3.5. Goin' over, Minny 26-21.
St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -9.5
O/U: 44
Though I hate to bank on the Seahawks playing well, they are at home for a must win game against an awful Rams team. Though I am tempted to go the other way, I'm going to give the Seahawks credit. They have a good coach, and should be prepared to not only win, but to blow the Rams out and restore a little of their fans' confidence. Seahawks -9.5. I'm going under, as the Seahawks will blow out the Rams, but won't necessarily put up a ton of points. Seattle 27-13.
Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -4
O/U: 46
An over/under of 46 means that Vegas thinks neither of these teams has any defense. They're right. In a shootout, the Lions have the advantage based on the solid receiving corps and my lack of confidence in J.T. O'Sullivan. But they lost to the Falcons. Then again, Kitna has to be getting pissed off, because for some reason he thinks the Lions should be decent. If the Lions are going to scrape together 6 wins, this has to be one of them. Lions +4. Go over. Lions win 31-27.
New Orleans Saints @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -5.5
O/U: 51
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Speaking of shootouts...Denver has looked great offensively, especially in the passing game. Cutler is young, though, and may have a bad game at some point, though I don't think this will be the one. New Orleans can score, but they don't have the defense to stop Denver. Denver -5.5. I'm going over, and taking the Broncos 33-24.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -3
O/U: 45
The Eagles looked powerful their first 2 games, and though Pittsburgh is also 2-0, their offensive output against an OK Browns defense makes me wonder what they can do against a solid Eagles D. Of course, that game was played in strong wind and rain, and the Eagles D just gave up 41 points to the Cowboys. Philadelphia is in such a tough division that every game outside the NFC East is basically a must-win. Plus the NFC East only has two losses so far, and both were to other teams in the division. This ought to be another great game. Eagles -3. I'm going with the over. Philly wins it 31-23.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -5.5
O/U: 41.5
I wish I could guarantee a Colts win every week, but they have been very inconsistent thus far. Jacksonville boasts a solid rushing attack, which the Colts have had trouble with so far. The Jags are 0-2, and facing a must-win against their division rivals. Dungy's team isn't just going to lay down, though. They're underachieving, and need a win too. If Buffalo can throw against the Jags, so can the Colts. Indy -5.5. Go under. The Colts win it 24-17.
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -2
O/U: 38.5
The key to this game could be the Baltimore run game. The Ravens have had an extra week to get McGahee back healthy and into the groove, and the Browns just lost Robaire Smith from their D-line. But Cleveland needs a win desperately, and if the Browns can get enough points, the Ravens don't have the offense to catch them. The Baltimore secondary should be able to limit the effectiveness of the Browns passing game, but Jamal Lewis should run effectively. Browns +2. I'm going over. Cleveland 27-13.
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Cowboys -3
O/U: 51.5
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Green Bay isn't good in primetime, and Dallas is playing very well offensively right now. Ryan Grant will have nowhere to go, and Aaron Rodgers will make a few mistakes. The Pack can't shut down Romo and the Cowboys. Dallas -3. Go Over. Dallas puts a hurtin on the Pack, 35-17.
New York Jets @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -9
O/U: 44
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
San Diego disappointed at home in week one. They aren't going to let that happen again. The Jets are a bit overrated. I doubt they're a playoff team, and may not even finish the season at .500. Plus there was a good game last Monday night, so it's only right that every Monday nighter for the rest of the season will be a blowout that everyone can turn off at halftime. Chargers -9. I'll take the under. San Diego finally gets a W 27-14.
Line: Falcons -6
O/U: 36.5
I was going to go for the upset because Larry Johnson is getting pissy and is going to explode for 150 yards at some point, but KC is playing some third-string QB named Thigpen. The Falcons will be able to run the ball against KC, and Ryan can get a little experience throwing against a lesser defense. Plus Atlanta's at home. Falcons -6. I'll take the under, and Atlanta to win it 20-10.
Oakland Raiders @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Bills -9.5
O/U: 36.5
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
I love being able to pick the Bills to win games this year. They have a legitimate shot at every game the way they're playing right now. One of the Bills' biggest victories ever was in the 1991 AFC championship over the Raiders, 51-3. Will we see that again? Maybe not quite that much offense, but domination nonetheless. Bills -9.5. I'll take the over, and Buffalo 34-7.
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -5
O/U: 39
Tennessee has looked good, but the Bengals aren't exactly the league's stiffest competition. Houston is very tough to call right now. Will their heads be in the clouds after dealing with the aftermath of Hurricane Ike, or will they come out and play great thanks to an extra week off and the added emotion of playing for the Houston community? I'm thinking the latter. But will that be enough to beat the Titans? I think this is going to be a very close game, and though I hesitate to go against the Titans again this week, I will. Texans +5.5. I think the Titans may win by a field goal in a close, low scoring game. Tennessee 20-17
Cincinatti Bengals @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -13.5
O/U: 41.5
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Could the Giants get an easier start to the season? The Bengals are terrible right now, and heading into Giants Stadium isn't going to help them turn it around. Giants -13.5. Take the over. G-men win big 38-13.
Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Redskins
Line: Skins -3
O/U: 42
The Cardinals have looked good, but they haven't yet faced a great defense. I believe that Washington has a premier defense, so we'll see what the Cards can do. My guess is they lose, especially since the Skins are at home and recently figured out how to play offense. Skins -3. Take the under. Skins win 23-14.
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -12.5
O/U: 35.5
Is Joey Porter really that dumb? Now that he's given the Pats something to play for, they may beat this spread. It's the Dolphins. They are not good. They didn't show up at all against the Cards, but only lost to Favre and the Jets by 6. I think the Pats will control the game, but with Maroney a little banged up, I'm not sure they can score enough points to win by 13, and Pennington has had some success against the Pats D in the past. Dolphins +12.5. I'm going with the over, and the Pats 24-13.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -3
O/U: 35.5
How can I go with the Bears after their collapse last week against the Panthers? Both of these teams have great D, but going purely on offensive potential against good defense, I'd have to give the edge to the Bucs. The reason the Bears had a lead against Carolina was special teams play. You cannot expect your special teams to score points in every game. Bucs +3. Tampa is better than advertised. Go under. Bucs win 17-10.
Carolina Panthers @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -3.5
O/U: 37.5
Adrian Peterson tweaked his hamstring in practice this week, and though he'll likely play, he may not be quite as effective. The Vikings also start Gus Frerotte. Though Minnesota needs a win, Carolina is out to prove that their 2-0 start isn't a fluke, and that they really are a contender. Plus Steve Smith is back. The key is this is a must-win in Minnesota, and the Vikings made the call to go with Frerotte early enough to get him all the snaps in practice, so he should be on the same page with his receivers. Vikings -3.5. Goin' over, Minny 26-21.
St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -9.5
O/U: 44
Though I hate to bank on the Seahawks playing well, they are at home for a must win game against an awful Rams team. Though I am tempted to go the other way, I'm going to give the Seahawks credit. They have a good coach, and should be prepared to not only win, but to blow the Rams out and restore a little of their fans' confidence. Seahawks -9.5. I'm going under, as the Seahawks will blow out the Rams, but won't necessarily put up a ton of points. Seattle 27-13.
Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -4
O/U: 46
An over/under of 46 means that Vegas thinks neither of these teams has any defense. They're right. In a shootout, the Lions have the advantage based on the solid receiving corps and my lack of confidence in J.T. O'Sullivan. But they lost to the Falcons. Then again, Kitna has to be getting pissed off, because for some reason he thinks the Lions should be decent. If the Lions are going to scrape together 6 wins, this has to be one of them. Lions +4. Go over. Lions win 31-27.
New Orleans Saints @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -5.5
O/U: 51
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Speaking of shootouts...Denver has looked great offensively, especially in the passing game. Cutler is young, though, and may have a bad game at some point, though I don't think this will be the one. New Orleans can score, but they don't have the defense to stop Denver. Denver -5.5. I'm going over, and taking the Broncos 33-24.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -3
O/U: 45
The Eagles looked powerful their first 2 games, and though Pittsburgh is also 2-0, their offensive output against an OK Browns defense makes me wonder what they can do against a solid Eagles D. Of course, that game was played in strong wind and rain, and the Eagles D just gave up 41 points to the Cowboys. Philadelphia is in such a tough division that every game outside the NFC East is basically a must-win. Plus the NFC East only has two losses so far, and both were to other teams in the division. This ought to be another great game. Eagles -3. I'm going with the over. Philly wins it 31-23.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -5.5
O/U: 41.5
I wish I could guarantee a Colts win every week, but they have been very inconsistent thus far. Jacksonville boasts a solid rushing attack, which the Colts have had trouble with so far. The Jags are 0-2, and facing a must-win against their division rivals. Dungy's team isn't just going to lay down, though. They're underachieving, and need a win too. If Buffalo can throw against the Jags, so can the Colts. Indy -5.5. Go under. The Colts win it 24-17.
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -2
O/U: 38.5
The key to this game could be the Baltimore run game. The Ravens have had an extra week to get McGahee back healthy and into the groove, and the Browns just lost Robaire Smith from their D-line. But Cleveland needs a win desperately, and if the Browns can get enough points, the Ravens don't have the offense to catch them. The Baltimore secondary should be able to limit the effectiveness of the Browns passing game, but Jamal Lewis should run effectively. Browns +2. I'm going over. Cleveland 27-13.
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Cowboys -3
O/U: 51.5
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Green Bay isn't good in primetime, and Dallas is playing very well offensively right now. Ryan Grant will have nowhere to go, and Aaron Rodgers will make a few mistakes. The Pack can't shut down Romo and the Cowboys. Dallas -3. Go Over. Dallas puts a hurtin on the Pack, 35-17.
New York Jets @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -9
O/U: 44
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
San Diego disappointed at home in week one. They aren't going to let that happen again. The Jets are a bit overrated. I doubt they're a playoff team, and may not even finish the season at .500. Plus there was a good game last Monday night, so it's only right that every Monday nighter for the rest of the season will be a blowout that everyone can turn off at halftime. Chargers -9. I'll take the under. San Diego finally gets a W 27-14.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
RECAP - WEEK TWO
This Week: 6-8-1
Linebusters: 2-3 (4-6)
Overall: 15-15-1
Wow. Another insane week. This is getting ridiculous. Way too many double-digit comebacks ended up screwing me over. Linebusters would have been 5-0 without comebacks of 9+ points in three of them. Absolutely ridiculous.
Who Needs a Small Johnson?
Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Chiefs -3.5
O/U: 36
My Pick: I'll go KC -3.5, because their run defense held down Maroney, and should be able to withstand the Fargas/McFadden combo. Chiefs 21-17.
Result: Raiders 23-8
This is the pregame scouting report on Larry Johnson from ESPN.com..."In four games against the Raiders since becoming the Chiefs' featured runner in 2005, Johnson has averaged 127 yards per game on the ground, the Kansas City Star reports. Not once was he held under 100 yards and he scored at least once in each game. If last Monday night's game was any indication, the Raiders are a complete mess right now. Look for Johnson to run wild, making him worthy of starting in nearly every league this week."...So what the heck happened? Johnson ran for only 22 yards on 12 carries, and the Raiders got their first win of the season. If KC continues to show NO offense, I'll be picking against them with regularity from here on out.
Cincinatti Blows
Tennessee Titans @ Cincinatti Bengals
Line: Bengals -1
O/U: 37.5
My Pick: I'll go Cincy -1 in a very close game. Bengals 17-13.
Result: Titans 24-7
Tennessee brings solid offense to the table even without Young in the game. I chose the Bengals because I thought the home field advantage would matter. It clearly did not. No offense and a porous defense will win Cincinatti ZERO games this year. Until they become more composed on offense, they're in deep trouble. At least I was right on the Under.
You've Gotta Be Kidding Me...
Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Colts -2
O/U: 43.5
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
My Pick: Minny +2, despite Indy's best efforts. Go with the Over, cuz this one might get crazy. Vikings 31-28.
Result: Colts 18-15
They had the 15-0 lead. Granted, they should have been able to punch one of those field-goal achieving drives into the endzone, but still. Rated as a top defense, you should be able to hold a late 15-point lead. Even against Peyton Manning. But they couldn't. Awful.
You've Gotta Be Kidding Me...Part Deux
New Orleans Saints @ Washington Redskins
Line: Saints -1
O/U: 42
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
My Pick: New Orleans -1. Saints 24-13.
Result: Skins 29-24
I had the Saints score right...but the Skins had an offense today. A late 9-point lead against the Skins should be enough to get it done. It wasn't. Credit Campbell and the Redskins for actually producing offensively. New Orleans has to be better than that on defense if they expect to make the playoffs.
Packing it in, sort of...
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
Line: Packers -3
O/U: 45.5
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
My Pick: GB -3. Packers 34-17.
Result: Packers 48-25
I almost died when I saw Detroit ahead after Green Bay had led 24-3. Especially with all the craziness around the league today. Credit the Packers for asserting their dominance down the stretch, even though they should have never let the Lions back in the game. Detroit shows flashes, and should have the offense to win 5 or 6 games at some point in the season. The trick is figuring out when the defense will show up to help out.
You've Gotta be Kidding me...Part Trois
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -3
O/U: 37.5
My Pick: I'm going Bears +3. Chicago wins a defensive battle, 12-10.
Result: Panthers 20-17
Seriously, what the hell? Chicago doesn't give up big leads. They're too good defensively. The Bears had all the breaks early, and held a 17-3 lead. How did they let the Panthers back in it? Credit Delhomme for leading another comeback. Like I said in the preview, these two teams are going to be a pain in the ass to predict for or against all year long. At least this one still goes as a tie.
What the Tuck was That?
New York Giants @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Giants -9
O/U: 41.5
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
My Pick: NYG -9. The Giants take care of business, 31-17.
Result: Giants 41-13
This was a pretty obvious situation. The defending Super Bowl Champs may be hampered on the defensive line, but they can still get after it. St. Louis wants no part of Justin Tuck again...after a bad play early, getting called for yanking Bulger's facemask, Justin Tuck was all over the place. Two sacks and a very athletic batted-down-pass-turned-interception that he took all they way to the house. Eli was also consistent again, and the Giants ran right over Rams. Will it be St. Louis, Miami, or KC that ends up at the bottom of the NFL this year? You decide.
Shake Youboty!
Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jags -5
O/U: 37
My Pick: Buf +5. Jacksonville 17-13.
Result: Bills 20-16
How about Youboty? What a game he played. He seemed to be all over the field. I'm very pleasantly surprised that my Bills could push through some adversity and win this game. I grow more confident with Trent Edwards each time out, and now the Bills look poised for a real run at the AFC east title. But can they beat the Patriots? I'm going to have some issues trying to predict that game...
That's More like it, Atlanta!
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Bucs -7
O/U: 37.5
My Pick: I'll take the under, and the Bucs -7. Tampa takes it 23-13.
Result: Bucs 24-9
Now THOSE are the Falcons we all expected to see when the season began. This game proves a few things: Detroit has no defense, Tampa has a good defense, and there will be a learning curve for Matt Ryan. Tampa is 1-1, and was able to put up 24 points despite a quarterback switch. Griese looks solid, but so did Garcia. Not sure why they switched. Don't care, as long as they beat the spread! We'll see how good they end up, but they could be a playoff team.
You've Gotta be Kidding Me...Enough Already!
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: -6.5
O/U: 38
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
My Pick: I'll pick the over, and take Seattle -6.5. Seahawks 31-13.
Result: 49ers 33-30 (OT)
Well, I was right on the over! How insane was this week? Really...this is just nuts. Seattle had this game well in hand, and is supposed to have a solid defense. Why did Holmgren bother with another season? He may as well have left. By the way, Chris Berman is an idiot. There is no way in hell Seattle even sniffs the playoffs, let alone the Super Bowl. The 49ers are not a good team. Allowing them to come back from a double-digit deficit on you is completely unacceptable.
Jumping the Gun
Miami Dolphins @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cards -6
O/U: 39
My Pick: I like the under, and the Dolphins +6. Arizona still wins, 20-17.
Result: Cards 31-10
So I was a little too quick to say that the Dolphins would be better this year, eh? To get smoked is one thing, but to get smoked by the Cardinals? Ouch. We finally saw some great receiving numbers from a team that has the talent to be doing that all the time. Miami's defense struggled. I still think they'll win a game or two, but they are very much in the hunt for that number 1 draft pick after 2 weeks of play.
Told Ya
New England Patriots @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -1.5 (I'm dead serious...)
O/U: 37
My Pick: Go Over, and take the Pats +1.5. New England proves themselves 24-17.
Result: Pats 19-10
Did you really think the Jets were going to win this one? Get real. They didn't look that amazing in week one, and even with a backup QB, the Pats have a ton of talent. Cassel looked a bit shaky, but held his own when it really counted and gave the Pats the cushion they needed to coast to victory. That Pats defense looked very good yet again, but keep in mind that if they have to play all-out every snap of every game because the offense is under-producing, they'll eventually get worn down.
Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -4.5
O/U: 37.5
Game Postponed until November 9th due to Hurricane Ike
Ed really Hoch-ed Up
San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos
Line: Chargers -1
O/U: 45.5
My Pick: I'll go with the Chargers -1, simply because they now have something to prove after a loss at home to Carolina. San Diego takes it 27-24.
Result: Broncos 39-38
I had this game right. Ed Hochuli (the jacked referee) screwed me over, as well as the San Diego Chargers and anyone who bet on them. Not only was there a bad call early that gave Denver possession and was not reviewable because the damn review booth was out of order (how does that even happen?), but the quick whistle on the late fumble by Jay Cutler gave the Broncos new life and ended up costing San Diego another late-game loss. Both of these teams look good, but Cutler was getting a bit fumbly down the stretch, so beware of him squeezing the ball a bit too tight in pressure situations.
Stupid Wind
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Steelers -6.5
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Steelers -6.5. Steeltown drops the Browns 30-20.
Result: Steelers 10-6
The Steelers controlled this game, yet only won by 4 because the wind was so bad that nobody could really get much offense going. Pittsburgh is good, and when they are not playing through the remnants of a hurricane, should be able to score plenty of points. This week's battle of Pennsylvania will be very fun to watch. The loss of Robaire Smith on the Cleveland D-line is huge, and already at 0-2, the Browns have a very difficult hole to climb out of. Don't expect them to be any better than 7-9 at season's end.
WOW.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -6.5
O/U: 47
My Pick: I'm taking the over and the Eagles +6.5, but the Cowboys to win 27-24.
Result: Cowboys 41-37
Glad I took the over! What an offensive show these two teams put on. The Eagles have earned a great deal of respect in the eyes of the rest of the league, and barring injury, I expect them to be a playoff team the way they're playing. The Cowboys pulled it out, proving that they are the class of the league and can pull off a comeback. Romo also showed me that he has matured enough not to let mistakes eat away at him...a bad interception, followed by a worse fumble, and he still maintained the confidence needed to run the offense in the second half. Lastly, if you lost in your fantasy league by less than a touchdown, and like me were one of the people who jumped on the DeSean Jackson bandwagon last week, you have the right to kill him. What an arrogant little bastard! He better keep his attitude in check if he wants the fans in Philadelphia to put up with him.
Linebusters: 2-3 (4-6)
Overall: 15-15-1
Wow. Another insane week. This is getting ridiculous. Way too many double-digit comebacks ended up screwing me over. Linebusters would have been 5-0 without comebacks of 9+ points in three of them. Absolutely ridiculous.
Who Needs a Small Johnson?
Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Chiefs -3.5
O/U: 36
My Pick: I'll go KC -3.5, because their run defense held down Maroney, and should be able to withstand the Fargas/McFadden combo. Chiefs 21-17.
Result: Raiders 23-8
This is the pregame scouting report on Larry Johnson from ESPN.com..."In four games against the Raiders since becoming the Chiefs' featured runner in 2005, Johnson has averaged 127 yards per game on the ground, the Kansas City Star reports. Not once was he held under 100 yards and he scored at least once in each game. If last Monday night's game was any indication, the Raiders are a complete mess right now. Look for Johnson to run wild, making him worthy of starting in nearly every league this week."...So what the heck happened? Johnson ran for only 22 yards on 12 carries, and the Raiders got their first win of the season. If KC continues to show NO offense, I'll be picking against them with regularity from here on out.
Cincinatti Blows
Tennessee Titans @ Cincinatti Bengals
Line: Bengals -1
O/U: 37.5
My Pick: I'll go Cincy -1 in a very close game. Bengals 17-13.
Result: Titans 24-7
Tennessee brings solid offense to the table even without Young in the game. I chose the Bengals because I thought the home field advantage would matter. It clearly did not. No offense and a porous defense will win Cincinatti ZERO games this year. Until they become more composed on offense, they're in deep trouble. At least I was right on the Under.
You've Gotta Be Kidding Me...
Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Colts -2
O/U: 43.5
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
My Pick: Minny +2, despite Indy's best efforts. Go with the Over, cuz this one might get crazy. Vikings 31-28.
Result: Colts 18-15
They had the 15-0 lead. Granted, they should have been able to punch one of those field-goal achieving drives into the endzone, but still. Rated as a top defense, you should be able to hold a late 15-point lead. Even against Peyton Manning. But they couldn't. Awful.
You've Gotta Be Kidding Me...Part Deux
New Orleans Saints @ Washington Redskins
Line: Saints -1
O/U: 42
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
My Pick: New Orleans -1. Saints 24-13.
Result: Skins 29-24
I had the Saints score right...but the Skins had an offense today. A late 9-point lead against the Skins should be enough to get it done. It wasn't. Credit Campbell and the Redskins for actually producing offensively. New Orleans has to be better than that on defense if they expect to make the playoffs.
Packing it in, sort of...
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
Line: Packers -3
O/U: 45.5
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
My Pick: GB -3. Packers 34-17.
Result: Packers 48-25
I almost died when I saw Detroit ahead after Green Bay had led 24-3. Especially with all the craziness around the league today. Credit the Packers for asserting their dominance down the stretch, even though they should have never let the Lions back in the game. Detroit shows flashes, and should have the offense to win 5 or 6 games at some point in the season. The trick is figuring out when the defense will show up to help out.
You've Gotta be Kidding me...Part Trois
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -3
O/U: 37.5
My Pick: I'm going Bears +3. Chicago wins a defensive battle, 12-10.
Result: Panthers 20-17
Seriously, what the hell? Chicago doesn't give up big leads. They're too good defensively. The Bears had all the breaks early, and held a 17-3 lead. How did they let the Panthers back in it? Credit Delhomme for leading another comeback. Like I said in the preview, these two teams are going to be a pain in the ass to predict for or against all year long. At least this one still goes as a tie.
What the Tuck was That?
New York Giants @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Giants -9
O/U: 41.5
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
My Pick: NYG -9. The Giants take care of business, 31-17.
Result: Giants 41-13
This was a pretty obvious situation. The defending Super Bowl Champs may be hampered on the defensive line, but they can still get after it. St. Louis wants no part of Justin Tuck again...after a bad play early, getting called for yanking Bulger's facemask, Justin Tuck was all over the place. Two sacks and a very athletic batted-down-pass-turned-interception that he took all they way to the house. Eli was also consistent again, and the Giants ran right over Rams. Will it be St. Louis, Miami, or KC that ends up at the bottom of the NFL this year? You decide.
Shake Youboty!
Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jags -5
O/U: 37
My Pick: Buf +5. Jacksonville 17-13.
Result: Bills 20-16
How about Youboty? What a game he played. He seemed to be all over the field. I'm very pleasantly surprised that my Bills could push through some adversity and win this game. I grow more confident with Trent Edwards each time out, and now the Bills look poised for a real run at the AFC east title. But can they beat the Patriots? I'm going to have some issues trying to predict that game...
That's More like it, Atlanta!
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Bucs -7
O/U: 37.5
My Pick: I'll take the under, and the Bucs -7. Tampa takes it 23-13.
Result: Bucs 24-9
Now THOSE are the Falcons we all expected to see when the season began. This game proves a few things: Detroit has no defense, Tampa has a good defense, and there will be a learning curve for Matt Ryan. Tampa is 1-1, and was able to put up 24 points despite a quarterback switch. Griese looks solid, but so did Garcia. Not sure why they switched. Don't care, as long as they beat the spread! We'll see how good they end up, but they could be a playoff team.
You've Gotta be Kidding Me...Enough Already!
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: -6.5
O/U: 38
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
My Pick: I'll pick the over, and take Seattle -6.5. Seahawks 31-13.
Result: 49ers 33-30 (OT)
Well, I was right on the over! How insane was this week? Really...this is just nuts. Seattle had this game well in hand, and is supposed to have a solid defense. Why did Holmgren bother with another season? He may as well have left. By the way, Chris Berman is an idiot. There is no way in hell Seattle even sniffs the playoffs, let alone the Super Bowl. The 49ers are not a good team. Allowing them to come back from a double-digit deficit on you is completely unacceptable.
Jumping the Gun
Miami Dolphins @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cards -6
O/U: 39
My Pick: I like the under, and the Dolphins +6. Arizona still wins, 20-17.
Result: Cards 31-10
So I was a little too quick to say that the Dolphins would be better this year, eh? To get smoked is one thing, but to get smoked by the Cardinals? Ouch. We finally saw some great receiving numbers from a team that has the talent to be doing that all the time. Miami's defense struggled. I still think they'll win a game or two, but they are very much in the hunt for that number 1 draft pick after 2 weeks of play.
Told Ya
New England Patriots @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -1.5 (I'm dead serious...)
O/U: 37
My Pick: Go Over, and take the Pats +1.5. New England proves themselves 24-17.
Result: Pats 19-10
Did you really think the Jets were going to win this one? Get real. They didn't look that amazing in week one, and even with a backup QB, the Pats have a ton of talent. Cassel looked a bit shaky, but held his own when it really counted and gave the Pats the cushion they needed to coast to victory. That Pats defense looked very good yet again, but keep in mind that if they have to play all-out every snap of every game because the offense is under-producing, they'll eventually get worn down.
Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -4.5
O/U: 37.5
Game Postponed until November 9th due to Hurricane Ike
Ed really Hoch-ed Up
San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos
Line: Chargers -1
O/U: 45.5
My Pick: I'll go with the Chargers -1, simply because they now have something to prove after a loss at home to Carolina. San Diego takes it 27-24.
Result: Broncos 39-38
I had this game right. Ed Hochuli (the jacked referee) screwed me over, as well as the San Diego Chargers and anyone who bet on them. Not only was there a bad call early that gave Denver possession and was not reviewable because the damn review booth was out of order (how does that even happen?), but the quick whistle on the late fumble by Jay Cutler gave the Broncos new life and ended up costing San Diego another late-game loss. Both of these teams look good, but Cutler was getting a bit fumbly down the stretch, so beware of him squeezing the ball a bit too tight in pressure situations.
Stupid Wind
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Steelers -6.5
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Steelers -6.5. Steeltown drops the Browns 30-20.
Result: Steelers 10-6
The Steelers controlled this game, yet only won by 4 because the wind was so bad that nobody could really get much offense going. Pittsburgh is good, and when they are not playing through the remnants of a hurricane, should be able to score plenty of points. This week's battle of Pennsylvania will be very fun to watch. The loss of Robaire Smith on the Cleveland D-line is huge, and already at 0-2, the Browns have a very difficult hole to climb out of. Don't expect them to be any better than 7-9 at season's end.
WOW.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -6.5
O/U: 47
My Pick: I'm taking the over and the Eagles +6.5, but the Cowboys to win 27-24.
Result: Cowboys 41-37
Glad I took the over! What an offensive show these two teams put on. The Eagles have earned a great deal of respect in the eyes of the rest of the league, and barring injury, I expect them to be a playoff team the way they're playing. The Cowboys pulled it out, proving that they are the class of the league and can pull off a comeback. Romo also showed me that he has matured enough not to let mistakes eat away at him...a bad interception, followed by a worse fumble, and he still maintained the confidence needed to run the offense in the second half. Lastly, if you lost in your fantasy league by less than a touchdown, and like me were one of the people who jumped on the DeSean Jackson bandwagon last week, you have the right to kill him. What an arrogant little bastard! He better keep his attitude in check if he wants the fans in Philadelphia to put up with him.
Thursday, September 11, 2008
PREVIEW - WEEK TWO
Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Chiefs -3.5
O/U: 36
Oakland looked bad, KC looked good. Both teams will be able to score against the other's defense, so the "over" looks like a pretty tempting proposition. I'll go KC -3.5, because their run defense held down Maroney, and should be able to withstand the Fargas/McFadden combo. Chiefs 21-17.
Tennessee Titans @ Cincinatti Bengals
Line: Bengals -1
O/U: 37.5
The under is an easy call here...Tennessee is without Vince Young, and if Jacksonville couldn't put up more than 10 points on the Titan D, don't expect the Bengals to do any better. This is a tough call. Kerry Collins is capable, but the Bengals are at home. I'll go Cincy -1 in a very close game. Bengals 17-13.
Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Colts -2
O/U: 43.5
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Peyton will have a whole week of practice under his belt, and the rest of the Colt lineup should be pissed, after getting obliterated by a Bears team that was a sizeable underdog. Of course, Minny also got beat. With the release of starting DT Ed Johnson, the already pathetic-looking Colts Run-D takes a big hit right before going to play one of the premiere rushers in the league in his own building. AP runs wild. Minny +2, despite Indy's best efforts. Go with the Over, cuz this one might get crazy. Vikings 31-28.
New Orleans Saints @ Washington Redskins
Line: Saints -1
O/U: 42
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
What are the Vegas oddsmakers doing? The Skins' D looked good in week one, but no better than Tampa's (and New Orleans handled the Bucs just fine). The issue is that the Skins have no offense. None. Zero. Yes, they got an extra few days of practice. Don't care. They'll fall. And bet the under, because they won't score too much. New Orleans -1. Saints 24-13.
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
Line: Packers -3
O/U: 45.5
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Really? What were people watching last week? I'm pretty sure what I saw was Aaron Rodgers proving that he could lead the Packers offense, a solid packer D, and a Lions team that couldn't stop the offense of a pop warner team. So -3? Are they nuts? The O/U is pretty well-set. I think the Pack will put up a good number of points, and the Lions will score a late garbage-time TD to screw everyone who went with the under. GB -3. Packers 34-17.
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -3
O/U: 37.5
I'll tell you what - these are the two teams in the league that scare me most this season with regard to predicting games. I'd bet that both will have some brilliant games, like last week, beating teams they shouldn't, as well as some awful games, losing to teams they shouldn't. Playing each other? Who knows. Will the Bears D play as well against the depleted (Steve Smith is still out) WR corps of the Panthers? If they can shut down the Colts, they should be OK with Carolina. But will they score any points against a very solid Panther D? Bet the under. I'm going Bears +3. Chicago wins a defensive battle, 12-10.
New York Giants @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Giants -9
O/U: 41.5
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Eli was consistent in week one, and now gets a reprieve in that he faces a very bad Rams defense. If the Giants score less than three touchdowns, they have failed miserably. The D will take the Rams too lightly, and give up some points in the St. Louis home opener, but not enough to matter. Enough to hit the over, though. NYG -9. The Giants take care of business, 31-17.
Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jags -5
O/U: 37
I have a lot more confidence in the Bills this week than last, but the special teams can't perform at that level every week. The offense was consistently OK against a suspect Seattle D, but will likely have much less luck against the Jags. Jacksonville needs a win, and at home it would be even sweeter for them. I'd take the under, as nobody brings a lot of offense to the table. Jags win, Bills beat the spread. Buf +5. Jacksonville 17-13.
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Bucs -7
O/U: 37.5
Tampa looks solid, but Atlanta was quite a surprise as well. Matt Ryan may suffer a setback against a tough Tampa defense. Michael Turner won't be as free to run. Tampa will run on Atlanta, and put up enough points to win, but the spread will be close. I'll take the under, and the Bucs -7. Tampa takes it 23-13.
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: -6.5
O/U: 38
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
The 49ers are rebuilding (again), and after a beatdown in Buffalo last week, Seattle needs to prove to the league that they can win big when they need to. Yeah, Morris and Burleson are gone, but I have faith in Branch (if he plays...), and Julius Jones is a heck of a backup tailback. He may even win the starting job by the time Maurice Morris gets back. I'll pick the over, and take Seattle -6.5. Seahawks 31-13.
Miami Dolphins @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cards -6
O/U: 39
Miami showed up last week against the Jets, and I'll be the first one to admit that though I would love to see it, they will not go 0-16. Arizona can put up points, and they have a solid secondary. Pennington may be bottled up a bit, but expect Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown to play well. Arizona has the weapons to perform well, but seems to stumble at times. Miami is one rock they could potentially trip over. I like the under, and the Dolphins +6. Arizona still wins, 20-17.
New England Patriots @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -1.5 (I'm dead serious...)
O/U: 37
Come on, now. One player gone, and the Jets can beat the Pats? Though I'll admit that it will be a close game, I still like the Pats. They have many more weapons, and many new reasons to prove themselves as a team. Favre will play well, and the Jets will put up a fight. If they win, it's because they're at home and all of a sudden have the confidence to think that, without Brady, they may have a shot at the AFC East crown. The Pats beat everyone last year as a favorite. What do you think they'll do with the added fire of being an underdog? Go Over, and take the Pats +1.5. New England proves themselves 24-17.
Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -4.5
O/U: 37.5
Game Moved to Monday Night due to Hurricane Ike
Baltimore's defense may be too tough to conquer for Matt Schaub and the Texan Offense. I expect Flacco to be under major pressure, though, and potentially make some mistakes. The Baltimore run game is better than Houston's, which makes the difference for me. If Hurricane Ike devastates the region, though, this is no longer a Linebuster, as the Texans could play for the community and really put on a show. Otherwise, go under, Baltimore +4.5. The Texans win, but don't cover. 20-17 Houston, in OT!
San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos
Line: Chargers -1
O/U: 45.5
This should be a good game. Cutler could be an up-and-coming star of the league, and the Chargers did not look good in week one. I'd go over, as this has the potential to be a shootout. I'll go with the Chargers -1, simply because they now have something to prove after a loss at home to Carolina. San Diego takes it 27-24.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Steelers -6.5
O/U: 44.5
Cleveland's offense didn't perform well after the first quarter against Dallas, and Pittsburgh may have a better defense than the Cowboys. That said, Cleveland's "thing" last year was alternating good and bad games. So maybe they'll have a good one this week. If so, go over. Pittsburgh had the offense rolling last week, and should put up enough points to cover. Steelers -6.5. Steeltown drops the Browns 30-20.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -6.5
O/U: 47
What a game for week two! Philly looked great, but Dallas has a much better D than St. Louis. Dallas looked great, but Philly has a much better D than Cleveland. So something has to give. The Eagles' pass rush and talent in the secondary will give Romo fits, but the Cowboys may do the same to McNabb. I think Donovan will have a great year. I'm taking the over and the Eagles +6.5, but the Cowboys to win 27-24.
Line: Chiefs -3.5
O/U: 36
Oakland looked bad, KC looked good. Both teams will be able to score against the other's defense, so the "over" looks like a pretty tempting proposition. I'll go KC -3.5, because their run defense held down Maroney, and should be able to withstand the Fargas/McFadden combo. Chiefs 21-17.
Tennessee Titans @ Cincinatti Bengals
Line: Bengals -1
O/U: 37.5
The under is an easy call here...Tennessee is without Vince Young, and if Jacksonville couldn't put up more than 10 points on the Titan D, don't expect the Bengals to do any better. This is a tough call. Kerry Collins is capable, but the Bengals are at home. I'll go Cincy -1 in a very close game. Bengals 17-13.
Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Colts -2
O/U: 43.5
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Peyton will have a whole week of practice under his belt, and the rest of the Colt lineup should be pissed, after getting obliterated by a Bears team that was a sizeable underdog. Of course, Minny also got beat. With the release of starting DT Ed Johnson, the already pathetic-looking Colts Run-D takes a big hit right before going to play one of the premiere rushers in the league in his own building. AP runs wild. Minny +2, despite Indy's best efforts. Go with the Over, cuz this one might get crazy. Vikings 31-28.
New Orleans Saints @ Washington Redskins
Line: Saints -1
O/U: 42
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
What are the Vegas oddsmakers doing? The Skins' D looked good in week one, but no better than Tampa's (and New Orleans handled the Bucs just fine). The issue is that the Skins have no offense. None. Zero. Yes, they got an extra few days of practice. Don't care. They'll fall. And bet the under, because they won't score too much. New Orleans -1. Saints 24-13.
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
Line: Packers -3
O/U: 45.5
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Really? What were people watching last week? I'm pretty sure what I saw was Aaron Rodgers proving that he could lead the Packers offense, a solid packer D, and a Lions team that couldn't stop the offense of a pop warner team. So -3? Are they nuts? The O/U is pretty well-set. I think the Pack will put up a good number of points, and the Lions will score a late garbage-time TD to screw everyone who went with the under. GB -3. Packers 34-17.
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -3
O/U: 37.5
I'll tell you what - these are the two teams in the league that scare me most this season with regard to predicting games. I'd bet that both will have some brilliant games, like last week, beating teams they shouldn't, as well as some awful games, losing to teams they shouldn't. Playing each other? Who knows. Will the Bears D play as well against the depleted (Steve Smith is still out) WR corps of the Panthers? If they can shut down the Colts, they should be OK with Carolina. But will they score any points against a very solid Panther D? Bet the under. I'm going Bears +3. Chicago wins a defensive battle, 12-10.
New York Giants @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Giants -9
O/U: 41.5
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Eli was consistent in week one, and now gets a reprieve in that he faces a very bad Rams defense. If the Giants score less than three touchdowns, they have failed miserably. The D will take the Rams too lightly, and give up some points in the St. Louis home opener, but not enough to matter. Enough to hit the over, though. NYG -9. The Giants take care of business, 31-17.
Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jags -5
O/U: 37
I have a lot more confidence in the Bills this week than last, but the special teams can't perform at that level every week. The offense was consistently OK against a suspect Seattle D, but will likely have much less luck against the Jags. Jacksonville needs a win, and at home it would be even sweeter for them. I'd take the under, as nobody brings a lot of offense to the table. Jags win, Bills beat the spread. Buf +5. Jacksonville 17-13.
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Bucs -7
O/U: 37.5
Tampa looks solid, but Atlanta was quite a surprise as well. Matt Ryan may suffer a setback against a tough Tampa defense. Michael Turner won't be as free to run. Tampa will run on Atlanta, and put up enough points to win, but the spread will be close. I'll take the under, and the Bucs -7. Tampa takes it 23-13.
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: -6.5
O/U: 38
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
The 49ers are rebuilding (again), and after a beatdown in Buffalo last week, Seattle needs to prove to the league that they can win big when they need to. Yeah, Morris and Burleson are gone, but I have faith in Branch (if he plays...), and Julius Jones is a heck of a backup tailback. He may even win the starting job by the time Maurice Morris gets back. I'll pick the over, and take Seattle -6.5. Seahawks 31-13.
Miami Dolphins @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cards -6
O/U: 39
Miami showed up last week against the Jets, and I'll be the first one to admit that though I would love to see it, they will not go 0-16. Arizona can put up points, and they have a solid secondary. Pennington may be bottled up a bit, but expect Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown to play well. Arizona has the weapons to perform well, but seems to stumble at times. Miami is one rock they could potentially trip over. I like the under, and the Dolphins +6. Arizona still wins, 20-17.
New England Patriots @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -1.5 (I'm dead serious...)
O/U: 37
Come on, now. One player gone, and the Jets can beat the Pats? Though I'll admit that it will be a close game, I still like the Pats. They have many more weapons, and many new reasons to prove themselves as a team. Favre will play well, and the Jets will put up a fight. If they win, it's because they're at home and all of a sudden have the confidence to think that, without Brady, they may have a shot at the AFC East crown. The Pats beat everyone last year as a favorite. What do you think they'll do with the added fire of being an underdog? Go Over, and take the Pats +1.5. New England proves themselves 24-17.
Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -4.5
O/U: 37.5
Game Moved to Monday Night due to Hurricane Ike
Baltimore's defense may be too tough to conquer for Matt Schaub and the Texan Offense. I expect Flacco to be under major pressure, though, and potentially make some mistakes. The Baltimore run game is better than Houston's, which makes the difference for me. If Hurricane Ike devastates the region, though, this is no longer a Linebuster, as the Texans could play for the community and really put on a show. Otherwise, go under, Baltimore +4.5. The Texans win, but don't cover. 20-17 Houston, in OT!
San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos
Line: Chargers -1
O/U: 45.5
This should be a good game. Cutler could be an up-and-coming star of the league, and the Chargers did not look good in week one. I'd go over, as this has the potential to be a shootout. I'll go with the Chargers -1, simply because they now have something to prove after a loss at home to Carolina. San Diego takes it 27-24.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Steelers -6.5
O/U: 44.5
Cleveland's offense didn't perform well after the first quarter against Dallas, and Pittsburgh may have a better defense than the Cowboys. That said, Cleveland's "thing" last year was alternating good and bad games. So maybe they'll have a good one this week. If so, go over. Pittsburgh had the offense rolling last week, and should put up enough points to cover. Steelers -6.5. Steeltown drops the Browns 30-20.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -6.5
O/U: 47
What a game for week two! Philly looked great, but Dallas has a much better D than St. Louis. Dallas looked great, but Philly has a much better D than Cleveland. So something has to give. The Eagles' pass rush and talent in the secondary will give Romo fits, but the Cowboys may do the same to McNabb. I think Donovan will have a great year. I'm taking the over and the Eagles +6.5, but the Cowboys to win 27-24.
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
RECAP - WEEK ONE
Week 1: 9-7
Linebusters: 2-3
Overall: 9-7 (2-3)
The theme of this week? "You've gotta be F$%#in' kidding me." Week one is always a bit of a feeling out process, but this one was just ridiculous. Brady going down changes everything in the AFC, so you may as well completely disregard my season predictions. I doubt New England will make the super bowl now. With him, they easily cover the spread. Obviously no one could have foreseen him going down in the first quarter. The Colts looked terrible. I'm not sure I have ever seen such a poor effort from their defense with a healthy Bob Sanders in the lineup. The Chargers...what can I say about the Chargers...they always seem to under-whelm, but this is ridiculous. Yeah, I may have overlooked the Panthers a little bit, but San Diego was just plain awful defensively, and LT was ineffective. And the Lions...wow is it going to be another long year in Detroit. Had I known they would not even try to stop the run, I would not have called it a linebuster. An all-around pathetic effort.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ NEW YORK GIANTS
Line: NYG -4
Over/Under: 41
Result: Giants 16-7
My Pick: WAS +4, because I remember the Giants D stinking it up early last year, until they hit their groove around week 3. Skins 23-20.
Ok, so I got off to a poor start. But had the Redskins scored on their second to last drive (which they should have, had Campbell's receivers CAUGHT ANYTHING) they would have beaten the spread. I was basically right that Washington would have a pretty good D this year, and that the Giants would be steady on offense, but wouldn't really blow too many people out of the water. A better offensive team would have beaten the G-men on Thursday night.
CINCINATTI BENGALS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
Line: CIN -1.5
Over/Under: 38.5
Result: Baltimore 17-10
My Pick: BAL +1.5. I’ve got to give the nod to rushing over passing, and health over experience. Ravens 17-13.
Despite some big misses, I did have quite a few games that I was just about perfect on. Only missed this one by a field goal. Also note that the Ravens did this without Willis McGahee. They can stand up to some teams this year.
NEW YORK JETS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS
Line: NYJ – 3
Over/Under: 36
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Result: Jets 20-14
My Pick: NYJ -3 easily make the spread 30-14.
Close...Too close...but right, nonetheless. Miami's offense looked a little better than I expected, though they still only managed the 14 points I predicted. The Jets didn't have as easy a time with the Dolphin D as I thought, but they put up enough to cover the spread. Both offenses will get better as Pennington and Favre get more reps with their new counterparts.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Line: NE -16/16.5
Over/Under: 45
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Result: Patriots 17-10
My Pick: Pats 38-13.
I was close with regard to what the Chiefs put up, but obviously there was one major play in this game that changed everything. Cassel couldn't get the Pats' offense anywhere near 38 points. Obviously. He's not the reigning NFL MVP. No more whispers of 16-0. We'll see if I even pick them as favorties in every game from here on out. Depending on the spread, I may even pick Favre and the Jets over the Pats this week!
HOUSTON TEXANS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Line: PIT -6.5
Over/Under: 43
Result: Steelers 38-17
My Pick: PIT – 6.5. Don’t bet against the Black and Gold at home in week one! Steelers 23-13.
I was basically right, but Pittsburgh looked WAY better than I imagined they would. Houston does not have a bad defense, but the Pittsburgh offensive line controlled Mario Williams, and managed to free up Willie Parker, who just went crazy for 138 yds and 3 TDs. Will the Black and Gold play this well every week? Probably not. But as long as the O-line plays that well every week, Benny boy can afford to make some mistakes and still win ballgames. How well did the O-line pass protect? Roethlisberger was 13/14...that's about as good as you'll see. Why only 14 attempts? Well, the O-line and Willie Parker were so good, why bother throwing?
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ TENNESSEE TITANS
Line: JAX -3
Over/Under: 37
Result: Titans 17-10
My Pick: JAX -3. It may be close, but not that close. 23-17 sounds about right.
Ok, so I was wrong. But there is a good reason why...Jacksonville forgot to bring their offense up to Tennessee. Ok, ok, maybe it was my fault for underestimating a very good Titans D. I knew they were good. I didn't know they were quite that good. Wow. At least I had the Titans' score right! Without Vince Young for the next couple weeks, the Titans may sputter. The D will stay good, but who knows what we can expect out of Kerry Collins.
DETROIT LIONS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
Line: DET -3
Over/Under: 41
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Result: Falcons 34-21
My Pick: Detroit wins 31-10.
Ok, Ok, I was WAY off. But honestly, who thought Matt Ryan would play well and Michael Turner would be unstoppable? The Lions got way behind early, and never could catch up. If that Detroit defense doesn't get any better, I'll be picking them to lose by 13+ every week. Were they even trying to stop the run? Atlanta gets props...I didn't know they'd be that much better. Now I have been shamed. I'll try to do better next time, Falcon fans.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ BUFFALO BILLS
Line: BUF -1
Over/Under: 39
Result: Bills 34-10
My Pick: BUF -1. Bills get things started off right. 20-16.
I almost feel like I was wrong, underestimating my own team like that! The Bills played some stellar football, and may have a shot at the AFC east crown, with the Pats falling on hard times. My only issue with the Bills is that their special teams cannot be expected to be so influential every game. They will, at some point, need to win games on offense. Edwards was consistently decent. At least he showed a little arm strength! The D looks great, and we can only hope that they perform as well every week. Great fire, great passion...I love to see that kind of effort out of my Buffalo Bills!
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Line: NO -3.5
Over/Under: 42.5
Result: Saints 24-20
My Pick: NO -3.5. It’ll be close, but the Saints come away with a 28-24 win on a late TD.
It wasn't that late, but the Saints did go ahead on a fourth-quarter TD to win the game. By four. In a close battle. Just about perfect on that pick. I'm glad to see that the Saints D can hold when the game is on the line. Tampa's D looks good too. Garcia is a capable passer, and if Graham continues rushing well, they should find themselves in the playoff hunt.
ST. LOUIS RAMS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Line: PHI -7.5
Over/Under: 44
Result: Eagles 38-3
My Pick: PHI -7.5. I was actually tempted to go the other way and say that Philly would win by 7, but I just don’t think the Rams will score much against a good Philly D. Philly 24-10.
Well, I guess I messed up a bit on that one. Philly is much, much better offensively than I thought. The Rams? Well, they're just about as bad as I thought. The new Dolphins? Yeah, probably. But the Eagles could beat some very good teams this year long as McNabb continues playing so well and the D can hold up against better opponents. We'll find out what they're made of this week!
DALLAS COWBOYS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
Line: DAL -5.5
Over/Under: 49
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Result: Cowboys 28-10
My Pick: DAL -5.5. Are you kidding me? Try Dallas 38-17.
This one had less offense than I expected. That offensive line gave Romo all day to sit in the pocket and pick out receivers, which he did successfully on most of his attempts (24/32). The Dallas D looked porous on the first Browns drive, but really didn't let them get anything going thereafter. A nice effort. Both the D and O-line will be tested a bit more this week, however, when Philly comes to town.
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Line: SD -9
Over/Under: 42
Result: Panthers 26-24
My Pick: SD -9. The Chargers are too much for Carolina, 31-10.
This is the epitome of a week one WTF game. Are you kidding me? Can the Chargers defense really be that bad? No, they're really not. Did you know that the last-second TD was THE ONLY OFFENSIVE TD OF THE GAME for Carolina? Gamble returned the only Charger turnover for a TD, and Kasay booted 4 FGs. Of course, the Charger D shouldn't have kept letting Carolina into field goal range, but statistically this looks like a very unlucky loss. It wasn't all about turnovers...it wasn't Rivers, he played well...it wasn't allowing too much on the ground, as Williams only had 86. The stars just somehow aligned to let John Fox and company leave San Diego with a W.
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Line: ARI -2.5/3
Over/Under: 42
Result: Cardinals 23-13
My Pick: ARI -2.5/3. The cards should get off to a fast start. Arizona wins 24-13.
Nuff Said. I was only off by one point. JT O'Sullivan got his team into the endzone early, but after San Francisco got a case of the Fumblies, Arizona was able to pull away. The Cards have a good secondary, and I'd expect them to create a lot of turnovers this year. We'll see if Warner can hold the offense together enough for a playoff run.
CHICAGO BEARS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Line: IND -9.5/10
Over/Under: 44
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Result: Bears 29-13
My Pick: IND -9.5/10 wins this one easily, 38-3.
Ok, so I was way off on every part of this game. Orton did fine, and was consistent enough to allow Forte to find some holes on the ground. The Bears put up lots of points, which is unexpected and unlikely to happen again this year. Indy's excellent rush D from last year is gone. Peyton was off a little. It was all a bit surreal. I think Indy will get better and the Bears will fall off a bit, but it won't be on D...the fire from 2006 is back for the Chicago D, and I'll bet they can keep their team in some games this year.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
Line: GB -3
Over/Under: 38
Result: Packers 24-19
My Pick: MIN +3. The Vikings give Packers fans something to boo, other than Rodgers, 26-17.
Aaron Rodgers has learned a lot from his predecessor. Some of the throws he made and some of the plays he executed felt somehow familiar...Brett-esque, if you will. The Pack are going to be OK...I just needed to see it to believe it. Minnesota has a solid run D yet again, but their weaknesses in the secondary, though shored up a bit, may not be completely fixed. If Tarvaris Jackson cannot carry the offense (he can't, but for the sake of argument let's use "if") then Minnesota will be a disappointment this season. Their owner has spent a lot of money to get them on an elite level, and will not settle for anything less than an NFC title.
DENVER BRONCOS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS
Line: DEN -3
Over/Under: 41.5
Result: Broncos 41-14
My Pick: DEN -3 holds, as the Raiders can’t get anything through the air. Denver, 20-10.
Again, I'm right, but I feel wrong. Jay Cutler has made this team exciting to watch, and to be honest, I don't hate the Broncos right now. My loathe may return later in the season, but for now, let's see what they can do. The real reason I didn't like them last year was that they were always a loss for me. If I said they'd win, they'd lose. And vice versa. No matter what. Once, I even picked against them just to spite what I would have chosen...and I was wrong. But now that I was right in their first game of the season, maybe the Broncos will be "predictable" this season. They're going to be better than I expected. Cutler is an emerging star. Watch out, Chargers...the AFC West may not be all wrapped up for you anymore!
Linebusters: 2-3
Overall: 9-7 (2-3)
The theme of this week? "You've gotta be F$%#in' kidding me." Week one is always a bit of a feeling out process, but this one was just ridiculous. Brady going down changes everything in the AFC, so you may as well completely disregard my season predictions. I doubt New England will make the super bowl now. With him, they easily cover the spread. Obviously no one could have foreseen him going down in the first quarter. The Colts looked terrible. I'm not sure I have ever seen such a poor effort from their defense with a healthy Bob Sanders in the lineup. The Chargers...what can I say about the Chargers...they always seem to under-whelm, but this is ridiculous. Yeah, I may have overlooked the Panthers a little bit, but San Diego was just plain awful defensively, and LT was ineffective. And the Lions...wow is it going to be another long year in Detroit. Had I known they would not even try to stop the run, I would not have called it a linebuster. An all-around pathetic effort.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ NEW YORK GIANTS
Line: NYG -4
Over/Under: 41
Result: Giants 16-7
My Pick: WAS +4, because I remember the Giants D stinking it up early last year, until they hit their groove around week 3. Skins 23-20.
Ok, so I got off to a poor start. But had the Redskins scored on their second to last drive (which they should have, had Campbell's receivers CAUGHT ANYTHING) they would have beaten the spread. I was basically right that Washington would have a pretty good D this year, and that the Giants would be steady on offense, but wouldn't really blow too many people out of the water. A better offensive team would have beaten the G-men on Thursday night.
CINCINATTI BENGALS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
Line: CIN -1.5
Over/Under: 38.5
Result: Baltimore 17-10
My Pick: BAL +1.5. I’ve got to give the nod to rushing over passing, and health over experience. Ravens 17-13.
Despite some big misses, I did have quite a few games that I was just about perfect on. Only missed this one by a field goal. Also note that the Ravens did this without Willis McGahee. They can stand up to some teams this year.
NEW YORK JETS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS
Line: NYJ – 3
Over/Under: 36
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Result: Jets 20-14
My Pick: NYJ -3 easily make the spread 30-14.
Close...Too close...but right, nonetheless. Miami's offense looked a little better than I expected, though they still only managed the 14 points I predicted. The Jets didn't have as easy a time with the Dolphin D as I thought, but they put up enough to cover the spread. Both offenses will get better as Pennington and Favre get more reps with their new counterparts.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Line: NE -16/16.5
Over/Under: 45
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Result: Patriots 17-10
My Pick: Pats 38-13.
I was close with regard to what the Chiefs put up, but obviously there was one major play in this game that changed everything. Cassel couldn't get the Pats' offense anywhere near 38 points. Obviously. He's not the reigning NFL MVP. No more whispers of 16-0. We'll see if I even pick them as favorties in every game from here on out. Depending on the spread, I may even pick Favre and the Jets over the Pats this week!
HOUSTON TEXANS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Line: PIT -6.5
Over/Under: 43
Result: Steelers 38-17
My Pick: PIT – 6.5. Don’t bet against the Black and Gold at home in week one! Steelers 23-13.
I was basically right, but Pittsburgh looked WAY better than I imagined they would. Houston does not have a bad defense, but the Pittsburgh offensive line controlled Mario Williams, and managed to free up Willie Parker, who just went crazy for 138 yds and 3 TDs. Will the Black and Gold play this well every week? Probably not. But as long as the O-line plays that well every week, Benny boy can afford to make some mistakes and still win ballgames. How well did the O-line pass protect? Roethlisberger was 13/14...that's about as good as you'll see. Why only 14 attempts? Well, the O-line and Willie Parker were so good, why bother throwing?
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ TENNESSEE TITANS
Line: JAX -3
Over/Under: 37
Result: Titans 17-10
My Pick: JAX -3. It may be close, but not that close. 23-17 sounds about right.
Ok, so I was wrong. But there is a good reason why...Jacksonville forgot to bring their offense up to Tennessee. Ok, ok, maybe it was my fault for underestimating a very good Titans D. I knew they were good. I didn't know they were quite that good. Wow. At least I had the Titans' score right! Without Vince Young for the next couple weeks, the Titans may sputter. The D will stay good, but who knows what we can expect out of Kerry Collins.
DETROIT LIONS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
Line: DET -3
Over/Under: 41
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Result: Falcons 34-21
My Pick: Detroit wins 31-10.
Ok, Ok, I was WAY off. But honestly, who thought Matt Ryan would play well and Michael Turner would be unstoppable? The Lions got way behind early, and never could catch up. If that Detroit defense doesn't get any better, I'll be picking them to lose by 13+ every week. Were they even trying to stop the run? Atlanta gets props...I didn't know they'd be that much better. Now I have been shamed. I'll try to do better next time, Falcon fans.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ BUFFALO BILLS
Line: BUF -1
Over/Under: 39
Result: Bills 34-10
My Pick: BUF -1. Bills get things started off right. 20-16.
I almost feel like I was wrong, underestimating my own team like that! The Bills played some stellar football, and may have a shot at the AFC east crown, with the Pats falling on hard times. My only issue with the Bills is that their special teams cannot be expected to be so influential every game. They will, at some point, need to win games on offense. Edwards was consistently decent. At least he showed a little arm strength! The D looks great, and we can only hope that they perform as well every week. Great fire, great passion...I love to see that kind of effort out of my Buffalo Bills!
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Line: NO -3.5
Over/Under: 42.5
Result: Saints 24-20
My Pick: NO -3.5. It’ll be close, but the Saints come away with a 28-24 win on a late TD.
It wasn't that late, but the Saints did go ahead on a fourth-quarter TD to win the game. By four. In a close battle. Just about perfect on that pick. I'm glad to see that the Saints D can hold when the game is on the line. Tampa's D looks good too. Garcia is a capable passer, and if Graham continues rushing well, they should find themselves in the playoff hunt.
ST. LOUIS RAMS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Line: PHI -7.5
Over/Under: 44
Result: Eagles 38-3
My Pick: PHI -7.5. I was actually tempted to go the other way and say that Philly would win by 7, but I just don’t think the Rams will score much against a good Philly D. Philly 24-10.
Well, I guess I messed up a bit on that one. Philly is much, much better offensively than I thought. The Rams? Well, they're just about as bad as I thought. The new Dolphins? Yeah, probably. But the Eagles could beat some very good teams this year long as McNabb continues playing so well and the D can hold up against better opponents. We'll find out what they're made of this week!
DALLAS COWBOYS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
Line: DAL -5.5
Over/Under: 49
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Result: Cowboys 28-10
My Pick: DAL -5.5. Are you kidding me? Try Dallas 38-17.
This one had less offense than I expected. That offensive line gave Romo all day to sit in the pocket and pick out receivers, which he did successfully on most of his attempts (24/32). The Dallas D looked porous on the first Browns drive, but really didn't let them get anything going thereafter. A nice effort. Both the D and O-line will be tested a bit more this week, however, when Philly comes to town.
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Line: SD -9
Over/Under: 42
Result: Panthers 26-24
My Pick: SD -9. The Chargers are too much for Carolina, 31-10.
This is the epitome of a week one WTF game. Are you kidding me? Can the Chargers defense really be that bad? No, they're really not. Did you know that the last-second TD was THE ONLY OFFENSIVE TD OF THE GAME for Carolina? Gamble returned the only Charger turnover for a TD, and Kasay booted 4 FGs. Of course, the Charger D shouldn't have kept letting Carolina into field goal range, but statistically this looks like a very unlucky loss. It wasn't all about turnovers...it wasn't Rivers, he played well...it wasn't allowing too much on the ground, as Williams only had 86. The stars just somehow aligned to let John Fox and company leave San Diego with a W.
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Line: ARI -2.5/3
Over/Under: 42
Result: Cardinals 23-13
My Pick: ARI -2.5/3. The cards should get off to a fast start. Arizona wins 24-13.
Nuff Said. I was only off by one point. JT O'Sullivan got his team into the endzone early, but after San Francisco got a case of the Fumblies, Arizona was able to pull away. The Cards have a good secondary, and I'd expect them to create a lot of turnovers this year. We'll see if Warner can hold the offense together enough for a playoff run.
CHICAGO BEARS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Line: IND -9.5/10
Over/Under: 44
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Result: Bears 29-13
My Pick: IND -9.5/10 wins this one easily, 38-3.
Ok, so I was way off on every part of this game. Orton did fine, and was consistent enough to allow Forte to find some holes on the ground. The Bears put up lots of points, which is unexpected and unlikely to happen again this year. Indy's excellent rush D from last year is gone. Peyton was off a little. It was all a bit surreal. I think Indy will get better and the Bears will fall off a bit, but it won't be on D...the fire from 2006 is back for the Chicago D, and I'll bet they can keep their team in some games this year.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
Line: GB -3
Over/Under: 38
Result: Packers 24-19
My Pick: MIN +3. The Vikings give Packers fans something to boo, other than Rodgers, 26-17.
Aaron Rodgers has learned a lot from his predecessor. Some of the throws he made and some of the plays he executed felt somehow familiar...Brett-esque, if you will. The Pack are going to be OK...I just needed to see it to believe it. Minnesota has a solid run D yet again, but their weaknesses in the secondary, though shored up a bit, may not be completely fixed. If Tarvaris Jackson cannot carry the offense (he can't, but for the sake of argument let's use "if") then Minnesota will be a disappointment this season. Their owner has spent a lot of money to get them on an elite level, and will not settle for anything less than an NFC title.
DENVER BRONCOS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS
Line: DEN -3
Over/Under: 41.5
Result: Broncos 41-14
My Pick: DEN -3 holds, as the Raiders can’t get anything through the air. Denver, 20-10.
Again, I'm right, but I feel wrong. Jay Cutler has made this team exciting to watch, and to be honest, I don't hate the Broncos right now. My loathe may return later in the season, but for now, let's see what they can do. The real reason I didn't like them last year was that they were always a loss for me. If I said they'd win, they'd lose. And vice versa. No matter what. Once, I even picked against them just to spite what I would have chosen...and I was wrong. But now that I was right in their first game of the season, maybe the Broncos will be "predictable" this season. They're going to be better than I expected. Cutler is an emerging star. Watch out, Chargers...the AFC West may not be all wrapped up for you anymore!
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
Linebuster Season Picks
FINAL 2008 PREDICTIONS:
AFC EAST
NE: 16-0
BUF: 10-6
NYJ: 8-8
MIA: 3-13
AFC NORTH
PIT: 11-5
CLE: 8-8
CIN: 7-9
BAL: 6-10
AFC SOUTH
IND: 13-3
JAX: 11-5
TEN: 7-9
HOU: 6-10
AFC WEST
SD: 12-4
DEN: 7-9
OAK: 5-11
KC: 4-12
NFC EAST
DAL: 14-2
NYG: 9-7
WAS: 8-8
PHI: 8-8
NFC NORTH
MIN: 10-6
GB: 8-8
DET: 7-9
CHI: 3-13
NFC SOUTH
NO: 11-5
TB: 9-7
CAR: 5-11
ATL: 3-13
NFC WEST
ARI: 9-7
SEA: 7-9
SF: 6-10
STL: 5-11
AFC PLAYOFFS:
WC: SD OVER BUF, JAX OVER PIT
DIV: NE OVER JAX, IND OVER SD
AFC CHAMP: NE OVER INDY
NFC PLAYOFFS:
WC: NYG OVER MIN, TB OVER ARI
DIV: DAL OVER NYG, NO OVER TB
NFC CHAMP: DAL OVER NO
SUPER BOWL: NE OVER DALLAS
AFC EAST
NE: 16-0
BUF: 10-6
NYJ: 8-8
MIA: 3-13
AFC NORTH
PIT: 11-5
CLE: 8-8
CIN: 7-9
BAL: 6-10
AFC SOUTH
IND: 13-3
JAX: 11-5
TEN: 7-9
HOU: 6-10
AFC WEST
SD: 12-4
DEN: 7-9
OAK: 5-11
KC: 4-12
NFC EAST
DAL: 14-2
NYG: 9-7
WAS: 8-8
PHI: 8-8
NFC NORTH
MIN: 10-6
GB: 8-8
DET: 7-9
CHI: 3-13
NFC SOUTH
NO: 11-5
TB: 9-7
CAR: 5-11
ATL: 3-13
NFC WEST
ARI: 9-7
SEA: 7-9
SF: 6-10
STL: 5-11
AFC PLAYOFFS:
WC: SD OVER BUF, JAX OVER PIT
DIV: NE OVER JAX, IND OVER SD
AFC CHAMP: NE OVER INDY
NFC PLAYOFFS:
WC: NYG OVER MIN, TB OVER ARI
DIV: DAL OVER NYG, NO OVER TB
NFC CHAMP: DAL OVER NO
SUPER BOWL: NE OVER DALLAS
LINEBUSTER PREVIEW - WEEK ONE
WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ NEW YORK GIANTS
Line: NYG -4
Over/Under: 41
The Giants haven’t really made any offensive changes since last year, and have lost a lot defensively. We all know that defense wins championships. Justin Tuck is great. Can he do it by himself? Probably. But the Giants’ defensive plan last season, which helped them win rings, was to platoon the defensive line, so the guys were almost always rested. Without two major contributors to that platoon, there may be problems. As soon as the Giants fail to get the same kind of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, everything may fall apart. Keep in mind that until the postseason, the Giants weren’t that great anyway. Eli and the offense have renewed confidence, but it was really the defense that won them a super bowl. The offense was merely consistent. Let’s see how consistent they can remain when every team in the league is gunning for them as defending Super Bowl champions.
The Redskins made quite a few changes to improve their football team, but we will have to see how head coaching virgin Jim Zorn holds up. They have a solid platoon of rushers, including Portis, Betts, and Cartwright, and their new OC just spent 13 years coaching the running backs of the Titans/Oilers, so you can bet that there will be plenty of backfield action from Washington. Of course, Zorn was the quarterbacks coach in Seattle, and has been working with Campbell to get him ready for the new offensive scheme, which features mostly short passing routes. So the Skins may have a balanced attack after all. The defense is improved, and once Jason Taylor is 100%, they should be good enough to at least compete in the league’s toughest division.
This game comes down to D…I expect both offenses to be efficient, but not explosive. 41 may be a little high for an O/U, but if one of the defenses falters (NYG w/o Strahan & Osi, WAS maybe w/o Taylor?) 41 is reachable. The line is pretty well set. If you can remember back to last season, the Giants were not phenomenal until the playoffs…so now, without a few defensive studs, they may be vulnerable. Of course, the Skins are very unproven, with a new coach, some new defensive faces, a new offensive scheme, and what some may call a second-rate passer, until he proves otherwise.
I’m going WAS +4, because I remember the Giants D stinking it up early last year, until they hit their groove around week 3. Skins 23-20.
CINCINATTI BENGALS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
Line: CIN -1.5
Over/Under: 38.5
How healthy is Chad Johnson, can the Bengals run the ball, how good can Willis McGahee and Joe Flacco be, and will Ray Rice have an impact? That’s about it. We know the rest. The Ravens’ D will be good, and likely fun to watch, the Bengals D will have flashes of brilliance, but won’t be amazing. Carson Palmer will pass well, but will there be anybody healthy enough to catch the ball? Flacco has a good arm, but hasn’t been tested too much. Preseason football only goes so far. We’ll have to see if he can remain composed in a much more difficult league than he is used to (did Delaware play anybody?). I expect Troy Smith to be a difference maker, and ultimately become the starter by the end of the year, provided he stays healthy. Ray Rice supposedly looked great in training camp, and may be a very solid backup to Willis McGahee, who needs to have a great season.
The over/under seems a bit high for a game pitting a less-than healthy offense against a great defense, and an unproven offense against a steady-enough defense. Of course, if Ocho Cinco and Houshmandzadeh are healthy and ready to go, the scoreboard could be lit up. And if the Ravens tailbacks get going, you’re likely looking at the same situation. The line is basically a pick-em…who do you think will win? Too many unproven players and injuries are involved in this game to call it a linebuster.
I’m going with BAL +1.5. I’ve got to give the nod to rushing over passing, and health over experience. Ravens 17-13.
NEW YORK JETS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS
Line: NYJ – 3
Over/Under: 36
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Here we go! The Dolphins still suck, and I continue to despise them. It’s only week one, but I’m rooting for them to have another shot at 0-16! Are you kidding me? Brett Favre is out to prove that the Packers blew it by not letting him come back. I don’t care if his only receivers are the ballboy and the overweight mechanic from the local gas station…he’ll get them the ball, and find a way to win by far more than 3 points…it’s the freaking Dolphins!
In all seriousness, though, Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown will be a formidable rushing combo, and Ted Ginn Jr. could have a breakout year. Favre has something to prove, but so does Chad Pennington, facing his old team on opening day. The Jets don’t have stars on D, but they always seem to play consistently. The real issue for the Fins is that their two defensive stars in recent years (Zach Thomas, Jason Taylor) are gone, and there really isn’t much else back there. Joey Porter isn’t as good as he was when he wore black and gold.
Look for the O/U to get blown out of the water by two quarterbacks looking to make statements. Expect some interceptions, too…they’ll both be trying to force balls.
The line could be accurate if Ted Ginn Jr. and Ricky Williams are stars, and the Dolphin D holds firm. Too many “ifs” for me.
NYJ -3 easily make the spread 30-14.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Line: NE -16/16.5
Over/Under: 45
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
There is no question that the Pats will be an excellent team again this year. The only question each week will be “how excellent?” The Chiefs are still going to under whelm. Larry Johnson is capable, as is Tony Gonzalez. But would you entrust your offense to a guy named Brody? Come on. He is totally unproven, and will likely have a rough year. The defense isn’t much better. 6-10 would be a pretty successful season for the Chiefs this year. On the other hand, Pats fans won’t settle for less than 19-0. Week one, they win without problems. We’ll see where they go from there.
The Pats really killed teams early in the season last year, scoring at least 34 points in each of their first 8 games. I expect the over/under to get destroyed.
The line should too. Like I said, the Pats were killing teams last year. 38-14 wouldn’t be a bad prediction for this game, which would give the Pats a 24-point win. Which is 8 better than the line.
NE -16/16.5. Easy pick. If not, they have underachieved! Pats 38-13.
HOUSTON TEXANS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Line: PIT -6.5
Over/Under: 43
This is a tough game to call. Both of these teams may have great seasons, but each could collapse just as easily. Pittsburgh needs Willie Parker to be outstanding. The wide receiver corps is aging. The defense shouldn’t have any problems. It is also the second year for head coach Mike Tomlin, which may mean a better product on the field. Houston is looking at similar issues…a solid defense and an unproven offense. Matt Schaub may have a great year, but he needs help from his wide receiver corps. Andre Johnson can’t catch every pass (can he?). Ahman Green has experience, but is getting a bit old. Yes, 31 is old for a running back. He had a few good seasons in Green Bay, but can he play well enough to take the pressure off of the Texans passing game? Time will tell.
Two solid defensive units against two unproven offenses…makes me think the O/U is a bit high.
The line is likely pretty accurate. Parker and Roethlisberger should break through more often than Green and Schaub.
PIT – 6.5. Don’t bet against the Black and Gold at home in week one! Steelers 23-13.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ TENNESSEE TITANS
Line: JAX -3
Over/Under: 37
The only reason this is not a linebuster? Vince Young. Yes, he can single-handedly keep this a close game. Both teams have excellent defenses and quarterbacks with much more experience and confidence than they had last season (Young and Garrard). LenDale White should be very good this year too. The one issue for the Titans becomes whether or not McCareins, Gage, and Williams will play well enough (assuming Vince gets them the ball in the first place) to take the pressure off the backfield and free up White and Young to run. The Jags know how to get just enough out of their passing game to free up their excellent tailback tandem of Taylor and Jones-Drew, and I expect them to do it successfully all year long.
The O/U is accurate…20-17 wouldn’t be an outrageous final score.
The Jags have their sights set very high this year, and though the Titans always play them close, expect them to come out with a win.
JAX -3. It may be close, but not that close. 23-17 sounds about right.
DETROIT LIONS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
Line: DET -3
Over/Under: 41
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
I am well aware that both of these teams are terrible. But the Lions are much less terrible, and should win by more than 3. Matt Ryan will need to grow into the QB position in Atlanta, and it might help if Atlanta gave him somebody to throw the ball to. The one decent receiver the Falcons had was tight end Alge Crumpler, and he’s gone! Can Michael Turner run for 150 yards every game? No, no he cannot. The Lions won enough games early in the year last season to have built up a bit of confidence. Calvin Johnson is apparently going to be the second coming of TO this year, except without the mouth and attitude. Kitna is capable enough to get him the ball, but if Jon goes down, look out! He has no real back-up.
The O/U is set well, the line is not.
DET -3. The Lions should actually produce offensively. Detroit wins 31-10.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ BUFFALO BILLS
Line: BUF -1
Over/Under: 39
Am I the only Bills fan who thinks Trent Edwards and JP Losman are both useless? Why can’t we get somebody good? Thankfully for the Bills, they open the season as slight favorites over a Seattle team that no longer has Shaun Alexander, and really doesn’t feature much in the wide receiving corps until Deion Branch comes back. And that is assuming he decides to play as well this year as he did in his breakout year, 2005 with New England. Seattle’s defense should be decent again, but if Hasslebeck can’t get anything going in the passing game, there won’t be any holes for Maurice Morris and new additions Julius Jones (DAL) and TJ Duckett (DET) to run through. Buffalo could actually have a shot at the playoffs. Evans, Reed, and Parrish are all capable wideouts (look for Parrish to have a big year), and Marshawn Lynch is a very good tailback. The offensive line should be good enough to give Edwards time in the pocket, and as long as he sticks to throwing the ball short, he should do alright. He just doesn’t have the arm to go downfield like Losman can. But he has something between his ears that Losman doesn’t have, so I’m not complaining.
The O/U isn’t bad. I wouldn’t be too surprised if they come up short, as nobody really brings a whole lot of offense to the table.
The line doesn’t matter. Who will win? As a fan, I say Buffalo. On paper, I say Buffalo. So, umm, we’re going to go with Buffalo.
BUF -1. Bills get things started off right. 20-16.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Line: NO -3.5
Over/Under: 42.5
How can you root against the Saints? Reggie Bush should be electrifying this season. They have a solid QB in Brees, and excellent threats for him to throw to in Colston and Devery Henderson. They played well below expectations last year, but I don’t expect to see that again. Not only should their offense be good, but the defense can put together stops. Check out the depth chart…it is almost surprising how much talent they have on that side of the ball! Tampa won the division last year despite only getting to take the Cadillac out of the garage once! Now they have parted with him altogether, and will rely on Earnest Graham and Warrick Dunn to shoulder the load, which they should be capable of doing. Galloway and Hilliard are excellent pass threats, and despite his age, Jeff Garcia is still a capable passer. Tampa’s best years were characterized by defense, and this should be no exception. Barring injuries, the secondary could be one of the best in the league. This game will help to determine how the NFC south will shake up all year long.
O/U is set well. Great D and O, but don’t expect a 42-35 final.
I’m struggling with this pick. I like both of these teams for different reasons. The only way to choose is to decide on an X factor…mine is playing in New Orleans right after yet another hurricane hit the area. How do you bet against the Saints in that situation?
NO -3.5. It’ll be close, but the Saints come away with a 28-24 win on a late TD.
ST. LOUIS RAMS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Line: PHI -7.5
Over/Under: 44
The Rams won’t be very good. That said, I think the Eagles may finish last in the NFC East, though they will likely be 7-9 or 8-8. McNabb doesn’t have any real threats to throw to, and now that he doesn’t scramble, the passing game will be neutralized by most good defenses. Brian Westbrook is an excellent all around talent, but without any other options offensively, how can he break free? It is possible that because the Eagles have no big name receivers, the defense will not know who to key on and McNabb will have options downfield, especially against lesser defenses, i.e the Rams. Also, am I the only one who feels like Westbrook has got to be at least 33? He’s actually only 29, though it feels like he’s been playing forever.
Steven Jackson will play much better than he did last year, and the Rams still have speed and some very good receivers, so if Bulger plays well, the offense may produce. The defense will have to play far above expectations, though, if the Rams are going to threaten in the weak NFC West.
The O/U is proper, as the Eagles won’t score too many points, but should be able to win comfortably.
The line may actually be high if the Rams come out playing to their potential. After last season, though, there is no reason to think that will happen.
PHI -7.5. I was actually tempted to go the other way and say that Philly would win by 7, but I just don’t think the Rams will score much against a good Philly D. Philly 24-10.
DALLAS COWBOYS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
Line: DAL -5.5
Over/Under: 49
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Everyone is picking the Cowboys to make the Super Bowl. Nobody is picking the Browns to do much of anything. So how will they stay within 6 points of Romo and the Cowboy offense? They won’t. Dallas looks great on paper, but Marian Barber is going to have to be special, because his backups are largely unproven. Without a running game, there could be problems. Assuming health though, not many teams will compete with the Cowboys this year. The defense is excellent once again, and with a healthy Zach Thomas in the middle, they should give every team they play difficulty.
What can be said about the Browns? Last season, they went back and forth, but never beat a quality team. Derek Anderson is an OK QB, and Jamal Lewis is a great rusher. When everything clicks, this team can put up a lot of points. But things don’t often “click”. The defense should be OK, but not spectacular. Dallas will shred them.
The over/under is accurate, as the Cowboys will put up big numbers, but will hold Cleveland to only a few points.
The line is low. Cowboys will win huge.
DAL -5.5. Are you kidding me? Try Dallas 38-17.
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Line: SD -9
Over/Under: 42
San Diego should be one of the best teams in the league this year, but Shawne Merriman SHOULD NOT be playing. If you seek 4 “second” opinions, finally find a doctor who says that you can play, but should probably have surgery instead, and you decide to play, you are AN IDIOT! The first three doctors likely said SURGERY NOW. Which is why he kept searching. Without him, San Diego would still be good, and likely would still win a weak AFC West. I assume he won’t play a full season, and will not play his best anyway because of his knee. So all predictions will be done as though Merriman does not exist. The Chargers still have a good D, but will give up more points without Merriman. The offense is unquestionably good, but Phillip Rivers may be the X factor…so he goes, so goes the team. If he has a bad outing, teams can just pack 7 guys in the box to stop LT, and the offense will be stagnant. Carolina is not bad, but not great. Without Steve Smith in the lineup the first two weeks, they’ll lose. They just don’t have enough other options. DeAngelo Williams was much better than expected last year, and he should remain consistent this season as well. The defense is alright, but not extraordinary. To stop LaDainian Tomlinson, you must be extraordinary.
The over/under is proper. Carolina won’t score much. If anything, go under.
The line may be low. San Diego should have the offense moving pretty well against the Panthers, especially at home.
SD -9. The Chargers are too much for Carolina, 31-10.
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Line: ARI -2.5/3
Over/Under: 42
Arizona should have a really good offense this season. Of course, they should have been much more electrifying last year, too. They play in a weak division, and could win it if they don’t make too many mistakes. Edgerrin James is still a premiere running back, and the Cards have plenty of great receivers. Warner has been tabbed the starter, but I’d expect Leinart to get some time as well. Either guy should be able to get the ball where he needs to and put up points. The Arizona defense is pretty good, too, and usually plays opportunistic football. Look for them to force quite a few turnovers. As long as the Offensive Line holds up, the Cards should be decent.
San Fran is better, but still not there yet. JT O’Sullivan (yeah, I know, WHO?) beat out Alex Smith for the starting QB job, and if he can run an offense (I have no idea who he is, so let’s assume he can’t…) the 49ers could win some games. They have wide-outs, including one of the greats, Issac Bruce. They have a solid rushing tandem of Frank Gore and DeShaun Foster. There isn’t a whole lot of talent on the defense, but Patrick Willis has come on as one of the better linebackers in the league. He will have to be outstanding for the 49ers to contend.
San Fran’s offense is ultimately unproven with O’Sullivan at the helm, but their rushing game should still do OK in week one. So the O/U may be low.
The line actually seems low, because an Arizona win sure appears to be in the Cards.
ARI -2.5/3. The cards should get off to a fast start. Arizona wins 24-13.
CHICAGO BEARS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Line: IND -9.5/10
Over/Under: 44
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Apparently the Bears are atrocious, and Indy will be good once again. Chicago is likely going to start rookie tailback Matt Forte, and with their longstanding difficulties passing the ball, the offense could be worse than it used to be, if that’s possible. Orton may be decent, and we can expect Devin Hester to be great yet again, but who else is there? Marty Booker? The defense should be good, but they should always be good. They underachieved last year, but I would expect them to have a little more pride in their efforts this season, especially since the Bears may need to win games 3-0.
Indy will be great again, with Joseph Addai, Marvin Harrison, and Peyton Manning all back at it again. Harrison had a less-than-stellar injury-plagued year in 2007, and you can bet that due to his recent off the field troubles, he’ll be on a quest to prove himself this year. Even the Colts O-line is solid…their offense looks like a pro-bowl team! The defense was very good at run stopping last season, and really played with a chip on their shoulders. They do not want the Colts to be thought of as an all-offense team that has to win every game in a shootout. This year’s D may be a little more suspect, but I don’t think they’ll be tested against the Bears.
The over/under is high…the Colts won’t score 44, and the Bears may not score any!
Indy should have no trouble covering the spread.
IND -9.5/10 wins this one easily, 38-3.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
Line: GB -3
Over/Under: 38
How does a winter in Green Bay look with no Brett Favre? Nobody knows. It will be a different Packers team this season, as they try to prove that last season was not all Brett Favre. The problem? Last season was all Brett Favre. Greg Jennings became an excellent threat, and Ryan Grant played well, but I don’t know that they can play to that level again. Now that Grant is an even bigger part of the offense, he may not be able to shoulder the load. Aaron Rodgers may not react well to being booed at home…which he will be whenever he makes a mistake. This is not going to be a fun year in Wisconsin. The defense is largely the same, but a year older. How will they hold up? Time will tell. My guess is that they won’t be anywhere near as good as last year.
Minnesota is an up-and-comer. Adrian Peterson is for real. He will soon take LaDainian Tomlinson’s spot at the top of fantasy draft boards across the world. If Tavaris Jackson can perform as well as everyone seems to think he can, and the Minnesota defense is as good as they have the potential to be, this could be a very good season for the Vikings. Their only issue may be that if Jackson cannot get the passing game together, everyone will key on Peterson, and he’ll have nowhere to go. I’m not too worried about that, though.
The O/U is about right for two teams with pretty good defenses.
Upset Special time. Minny walks into Lambeau and leaves with a W!
MIN +3. The Vikings give Packers fans something to boo, other than Rodgers, 26-17.
DENVER BRONCOS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS
Line: DEN -3
Over/Under: 41.5
When ESPN tabbed this game for the opening night of Monday Night Football, I’ll bet they thought it was going to be the epic battle that normally is Denver/Oakland. Well, it’s not. It may be a good game competitively, but neither team is going anywhere. Oakland has a bright young talent in Darren McFadden, but he can’t do it alone. Fargas needs to be good, JaMarcus Russell needs to be spectacular, and the defense needs to play far better than anyone could have possibly imagined. If they can do that, they have a shot at 8-8. Maybe. A very long shot.
Denver is also bad. Which is good. Because I don’t care for Denver. Why? Don’t know. I just don’t like ‘em. Selvin Young may be OK this year, because it is Denver and they have a tendency to get the most out of their rushing game. Cutler doesn’t have the experience to astound anyone, and he really has no back-up, so it’s all on him. The offense won’t be pretty. The Broncos’ secondary will be good, thanks to the only Denver player I like, Champ Bailey. He’s getting old, but he’s still very good. The rest of the D is a questions mark. We’ll see how they play as the season wears on.
These teams are not likely to put up anywhere near 41 points…the under would be a pretty safe bet.
The line should be close…Both teams will be rushing the ball a lot. Denver has a much better secondary, though, and should hold the Raiders’ offense in check.
DEN -3 holds, as the Raiders can’t get anything through the air. Denver, 20-10.
Line: NYG -4
Over/Under: 41
The Giants haven’t really made any offensive changes since last year, and have lost a lot defensively. We all know that defense wins championships. Justin Tuck is great. Can he do it by himself? Probably. But the Giants’ defensive plan last season, which helped them win rings, was to platoon the defensive line, so the guys were almost always rested. Without two major contributors to that platoon, there may be problems. As soon as the Giants fail to get the same kind of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, everything may fall apart. Keep in mind that until the postseason, the Giants weren’t that great anyway. Eli and the offense have renewed confidence, but it was really the defense that won them a super bowl. The offense was merely consistent. Let’s see how consistent they can remain when every team in the league is gunning for them as defending Super Bowl champions.
The Redskins made quite a few changes to improve their football team, but we will have to see how head coaching virgin Jim Zorn holds up. They have a solid platoon of rushers, including Portis, Betts, and Cartwright, and their new OC just spent 13 years coaching the running backs of the Titans/Oilers, so you can bet that there will be plenty of backfield action from Washington. Of course, Zorn was the quarterbacks coach in Seattle, and has been working with Campbell to get him ready for the new offensive scheme, which features mostly short passing routes. So the Skins may have a balanced attack after all. The defense is improved, and once Jason Taylor is 100%, they should be good enough to at least compete in the league’s toughest division.
This game comes down to D…I expect both offenses to be efficient, but not explosive. 41 may be a little high for an O/U, but if one of the defenses falters (NYG w/o Strahan & Osi, WAS maybe w/o Taylor?) 41 is reachable. The line is pretty well set. If you can remember back to last season, the Giants were not phenomenal until the playoffs…so now, without a few defensive studs, they may be vulnerable. Of course, the Skins are very unproven, with a new coach, some new defensive faces, a new offensive scheme, and what some may call a second-rate passer, until he proves otherwise.
I’m going WAS +4, because I remember the Giants D stinking it up early last year, until they hit their groove around week 3. Skins 23-20.
CINCINATTI BENGALS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
Line: CIN -1.5
Over/Under: 38.5
How healthy is Chad Johnson, can the Bengals run the ball, how good can Willis McGahee and Joe Flacco be, and will Ray Rice have an impact? That’s about it. We know the rest. The Ravens’ D will be good, and likely fun to watch, the Bengals D will have flashes of brilliance, but won’t be amazing. Carson Palmer will pass well, but will there be anybody healthy enough to catch the ball? Flacco has a good arm, but hasn’t been tested too much. Preseason football only goes so far. We’ll have to see if he can remain composed in a much more difficult league than he is used to (did Delaware play anybody?). I expect Troy Smith to be a difference maker, and ultimately become the starter by the end of the year, provided he stays healthy. Ray Rice supposedly looked great in training camp, and may be a very solid backup to Willis McGahee, who needs to have a great season.
The over/under seems a bit high for a game pitting a less-than healthy offense against a great defense, and an unproven offense against a steady-enough defense. Of course, if Ocho Cinco and Houshmandzadeh are healthy and ready to go, the scoreboard could be lit up. And if the Ravens tailbacks get going, you’re likely looking at the same situation. The line is basically a pick-em…who do you think will win? Too many unproven players and injuries are involved in this game to call it a linebuster.
I’m going with BAL +1.5. I’ve got to give the nod to rushing over passing, and health over experience. Ravens 17-13.
NEW YORK JETS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS
Line: NYJ – 3
Over/Under: 36
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Here we go! The Dolphins still suck, and I continue to despise them. It’s only week one, but I’m rooting for them to have another shot at 0-16! Are you kidding me? Brett Favre is out to prove that the Packers blew it by not letting him come back. I don’t care if his only receivers are the ballboy and the overweight mechanic from the local gas station…he’ll get them the ball, and find a way to win by far more than 3 points…it’s the freaking Dolphins!
In all seriousness, though, Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown will be a formidable rushing combo, and Ted Ginn Jr. could have a breakout year. Favre has something to prove, but so does Chad Pennington, facing his old team on opening day. The Jets don’t have stars on D, but they always seem to play consistently. The real issue for the Fins is that their two defensive stars in recent years (Zach Thomas, Jason Taylor) are gone, and there really isn’t much else back there. Joey Porter isn’t as good as he was when he wore black and gold.
Look for the O/U to get blown out of the water by two quarterbacks looking to make statements. Expect some interceptions, too…they’ll both be trying to force balls.
The line could be accurate if Ted Ginn Jr. and Ricky Williams are stars, and the Dolphin D holds firm. Too many “ifs” for me.
NYJ -3 easily make the spread 30-14.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Line: NE -16/16.5
Over/Under: 45
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
There is no question that the Pats will be an excellent team again this year. The only question each week will be “how excellent?” The Chiefs are still going to under whelm. Larry Johnson is capable, as is Tony Gonzalez. But would you entrust your offense to a guy named Brody? Come on. He is totally unproven, and will likely have a rough year. The defense isn’t much better. 6-10 would be a pretty successful season for the Chiefs this year. On the other hand, Pats fans won’t settle for less than 19-0. Week one, they win without problems. We’ll see where they go from there.
The Pats really killed teams early in the season last year, scoring at least 34 points in each of their first 8 games. I expect the over/under to get destroyed.
The line should too. Like I said, the Pats were killing teams last year. 38-14 wouldn’t be a bad prediction for this game, which would give the Pats a 24-point win. Which is 8 better than the line.
NE -16/16.5. Easy pick. If not, they have underachieved! Pats 38-13.
HOUSTON TEXANS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Line: PIT -6.5
Over/Under: 43
This is a tough game to call. Both of these teams may have great seasons, but each could collapse just as easily. Pittsburgh needs Willie Parker to be outstanding. The wide receiver corps is aging. The defense shouldn’t have any problems. It is also the second year for head coach Mike Tomlin, which may mean a better product on the field. Houston is looking at similar issues…a solid defense and an unproven offense. Matt Schaub may have a great year, but he needs help from his wide receiver corps. Andre Johnson can’t catch every pass (can he?). Ahman Green has experience, but is getting a bit old. Yes, 31 is old for a running back. He had a few good seasons in Green Bay, but can he play well enough to take the pressure off of the Texans passing game? Time will tell.
Two solid defensive units against two unproven offenses…makes me think the O/U is a bit high.
The line is likely pretty accurate. Parker and Roethlisberger should break through more often than Green and Schaub.
PIT – 6.5. Don’t bet against the Black and Gold at home in week one! Steelers 23-13.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ TENNESSEE TITANS
Line: JAX -3
Over/Under: 37
The only reason this is not a linebuster? Vince Young. Yes, he can single-handedly keep this a close game. Both teams have excellent defenses and quarterbacks with much more experience and confidence than they had last season (Young and Garrard). LenDale White should be very good this year too. The one issue for the Titans becomes whether or not McCareins, Gage, and Williams will play well enough (assuming Vince gets them the ball in the first place) to take the pressure off the backfield and free up White and Young to run. The Jags know how to get just enough out of their passing game to free up their excellent tailback tandem of Taylor and Jones-Drew, and I expect them to do it successfully all year long.
The O/U is accurate…20-17 wouldn’t be an outrageous final score.
The Jags have their sights set very high this year, and though the Titans always play them close, expect them to come out with a win.
JAX -3. It may be close, but not that close. 23-17 sounds about right.
DETROIT LIONS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
Line: DET -3
Over/Under: 41
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
I am well aware that both of these teams are terrible. But the Lions are much less terrible, and should win by more than 3. Matt Ryan will need to grow into the QB position in Atlanta, and it might help if Atlanta gave him somebody to throw the ball to. The one decent receiver the Falcons had was tight end Alge Crumpler, and he’s gone! Can Michael Turner run for 150 yards every game? No, no he cannot. The Lions won enough games early in the year last season to have built up a bit of confidence. Calvin Johnson is apparently going to be the second coming of TO this year, except without the mouth and attitude. Kitna is capable enough to get him the ball, but if Jon goes down, look out! He has no real back-up.
The O/U is set well, the line is not.
DET -3. The Lions should actually produce offensively. Detroit wins 31-10.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ BUFFALO BILLS
Line: BUF -1
Over/Under: 39
Am I the only Bills fan who thinks Trent Edwards and JP Losman are both useless? Why can’t we get somebody good? Thankfully for the Bills, they open the season as slight favorites over a Seattle team that no longer has Shaun Alexander, and really doesn’t feature much in the wide receiving corps until Deion Branch comes back. And that is assuming he decides to play as well this year as he did in his breakout year, 2005 with New England. Seattle’s defense should be decent again, but if Hasslebeck can’t get anything going in the passing game, there won’t be any holes for Maurice Morris and new additions Julius Jones (DAL) and TJ Duckett (DET) to run through. Buffalo could actually have a shot at the playoffs. Evans, Reed, and Parrish are all capable wideouts (look for Parrish to have a big year), and Marshawn Lynch is a very good tailback. The offensive line should be good enough to give Edwards time in the pocket, and as long as he sticks to throwing the ball short, he should do alright. He just doesn’t have the arm to go downfield like Losman can. But he has something between his ears that Losman doesn’t have, so I’m not complaining.
The O/U isn’t bad. I wouldn’t be too surprised if they come up short, as nobody really brings a whole lot of offense to the table.
The line doesn’t matter. Who will win? As a fan, I say Buffalo. On paper, I say Buffalo. So, umm, we’re going to go with Buffalo.
BUF -1. Bills get things started off right. 20-16.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Line: NO -3.5
Over/Under: 42.5
How can you root against the Saints? Reggie Bush should be electrifying this season. They have a solid QB in Brees, and excellent threats for him to throw to in Colston and Devery Henderson. They played well below expectations last year, but I don’t expect to see that again. Not only should their offense be good, but the defense can put together stops. Check out the depth chart…it is almost surprising how much talent they have on that side of the ball! Tampa won the division last year despite only getting to take the Cadillac out of the garage once! Now they have parted with him altogether, and will rely on Earnest Graham and Warrick Dunn to shoulder the load, which they should be capable of doing. Galloway and Hilliard are excellent pass threats, and despite his age, Jeff Garcia is still a capable passer. Tampa’s best years were characterized by defense, and this should be no exception. Barring injuries, the secondary could be one of the best in the league. This game will help to determine how the NFC south will shake up all year long.
O/U is set well. Great D and O, but don’t expect a 42-35 final.
I’m struggling with this pick. I like both of these teams for different reasons. The only way to choose is to decide on an X factor…mine is playing in New Orleans right after yet another hurricane hit the area. How do you bet against the Saints in that situation?
NO -3.5. It’ll be close, but the Saints come away with a 28-24 win on a late TD.
ST. LOUIS RAMS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Line: PHI -7.5
Over/Under: 44
The Rams won’t be very good. That said, I think the Eagles may finish last in the NFC East, though they will likely be 7-9 or 8-8. McNabb doesn’t have any real threats to throw to, and now that he doesn’t scramble, the passing game will be neutralized by most good defenses. Brian Westbrook is an excellent all around talent, but without any other options offensively, how can he break free? It is possible that because the Eagles have no big name receivers, the defense will not know who to key on and McNabb will have options downfield, especially against lesser defenses, i.e the Rams. Also, am I the only one who feels like Westbrook has got to be at least 33? He’s actually only 29, though it feels like he’s been playing forever.
Steven Jackson will play much better than he did last year, and the Rams still have speed and some very good receivers, so if Bulger plays well, the offense may produce. The defense will have to play far above expectations, though, if the Rams are going to threaten in the weak NFC West.
The O/U is proper, as the Eagles won’t score too many points, but should be able to win comfortably.
The line may actually be high if the Rams come out playing to their potential. After last season, though, there is no reason to think that will happen.
PHI -7.5. I was actually tempted to go the other way and say that Philly would win by 7, but I just don’t think the Rams will score much against a good Philly D. Philly 24-10.
DALLAS COWBOYS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
Line: DAL -5.5
Over/Under: 49
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Everyone is picking the Cowboys to make the Super Bowl. Nobody is picking the Browns to do much of anything. So how will they stay within 6 points of Romo and the Cowboy offense? They won’t. Dallas looks great on paper, but Marian Barber is going to have to be special, because his backups are largely unproven. Without a running game, there could be problems. Assuming health though, not many teams will compete with the Cowboys this year. The defense is excellent once again, and with a healthy Zach Thomas in the middle, they should give every team they play difficulty.
What can be said about the Browns? Last season, they went back and forth, but never beat a quality team. Derek Anderson is an OK QB, and Jamal Lewis is a great rusher. When everything clicks, this team can put up a lot of points. But things don’t often “click”. The defense should be OK, but not spectacular. Dallas will shred them.
The over/under is accurate, as the Cowboys will put up big numbers, but will hold Cleveland to only a few points.
The line is low. Cowboys will win huge.
DAL -5.5. Are you kidding me? Try Dallas 38-17.
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Line: SD -9
Over/Under: 42
San Diego should be one of the best teams in the league this year, but Shawne Merriman SHOULD NOT be playing. If you seek 4 “second” opinions, finally find a doctor who says that you can play, but should probably have surgery instead, and you decide to play, you are AN IDIOT! The first three doctors likely said SURGERY NOW. Which is why he kept searching. Without him, San Diego would still be good, and likely would still win a weak AFC West. I assume he won’t play a full season, and will not play his best anyway because of his knee. So all predictions will be done as though Merriman does not exist. The Chargers still have a good D, but will give up more points without Merriman. The offense is unquestionably good, but Phillip Rivers may be the X factor…so he goes, so goes the team. If he has a bad outing, teams can just pack 7 guys in the box to stop LT, and the offense will be stagnant. Carolina is not bad, but not great. Without Steve Smith in the lineup the first two weeks, they’ll lose. They just don’t have enough other options. DeAngelo Williams was much better than expected last year, and he should remain consistent this season as well. The defense is alright, but not extraordinary. To stop LaDainian Tomlinson, you must be extraordinary.
The over/under is proper. Carolina won’t score much. If anything, go under.
The line may be low. San Diego should have the offense moving pretty well against the Panthers, especially at home.
SD -9. The Chargers are too much for Carolina, 31-10.
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Line: ARI -2.5/3
Over/Under: 42
Arizona should have a really good offense this season. Of course, they should have been much more electrifying last year, too. They play in a weak division, and could win it if they don’t make too many mistakes. Edgerrin James is still a premiere running back, and the Cards have plenty of great receivers. Warner has been tabbed the starter, but I’d expect Leinart to get some time as well. Either guy should be able to get the ball where he needs to and put up points. The Arizona defense is pretty good, too, and usually plays opportunistic football. Look for them to force quite a few turnovers. As long as the Offensive Line holds up, the Cards should be decent.
San Fran is better, but still not there yet. JT O’Sullivan (yeah, I know, WHO?) beat out Alex Smith for the starting QB job, and if he can run an offense (I have no idea who he is, so let’s assume he can’t…) the 49ers could win some games. They have wide-outs, including one of the greats, Issac Bruce. They have a solid rushing tandem of Frank Gore and DeShaun Foster. There isn’t a whole lot of talent on the defense, but Patrick Willis has come on as one of the better linebackers in the league. He will have to be outstanding for the 49ers to contend.
San Fran’s offense is ultimately unproven with O’Sullivan at the helm, but their rushing game should still do OK in week one. So the O/U may be low.
The line actually seems low, because an Arizona win sure appears to be in the Cards.
ARI -2.5/3. The cards should get off to a fast start. Arizona wins 24-13.
CHICAGO BEARS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Line: IND -9.5/10
Over/Under: 44
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Apparently the Bears are atrocious, and Indy will be good once again. Chicago is likely going to start rookie tailback Matt Forte, and with their longstanding difficulties passing the ball, the offense could be worse than it used to be, if that’s possible. Orton may be decent, and we can expect Devin Hester to be great yet again, but who else is there? Marty Booker? The defense should be good, but they should always be good. They underachieved last year, but I would expect them to have a little more pride in their efforts this season, especially since the Bears may need to win games 3-0.
Indy will be great again, with Joseph Addai, Marvin Harrison, and Peyton Manning all back at it again. Harrison had a less-than-stellar injury-plagued year in 2007, and you can bet that due to his recent off the field troubles, he’ll be on a quest to prove himself this year. Even the Colts O-line is solid…their offense looks like a pro-bowl team! The defense was very good at run stopping last season, and really played with a chip on their shoulders. They do not want the Colts to be thought of as an all-offense team that has to win every game in a shootout. This year’s D may be a little more suspect, but I don’t think they’ll be tested against the Bears.
The over/under is high…the Colts won’t score 44, and the Bears may not score any!
Indy should have no trouble covering the spread.
IND -9.5/10 wins this one easily, 38-3.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
Line: GB -3
Over/Under: 38
How does a winter in Green Bay look with no Brett Favre? Nobody knows. It will be a different Packers team this season, as they try to prove that last season was not all Brett Favre. The problem? Last season was all Brett Favre. Greg Jennings became an excellent threat, and Ryan Grant played well, but I don’t know that they can play to that level again. Now that Grant is an even bigger part of the offense, he may not be able to shoulder the load. Aaron Rodgers may not react well to being booed at home…which he will be whenever he makes a mistake. This is not going to be a fun year in Wisconsin. The defense is largely the same, but a year older. How will they hold up? Time will tell. My guess is that they won’t be anywhere near as good as last year.
Minnesota is an up-and-comer. Adrian Peterson is for real. He will soon take LaDainian Tomlinson’s spot at the top of fantasy draft boards across the world. If Tavaris Jackson can perform as well as everyone seems to think he can, and the Minnesota defense is as good as they have the potential to be, this could be a very good season for the Vikings. Their only issue may be that if Jackson cannot get the passing game together, everyone will key on Peterson, and he’ll have nowhere to go. I’m not too worried about that, though.
The O/U is about right for two teams with pretty good defenses.
Upset Special time. Minny walks into Lambeau and leaves with a W!
MIN +3. The Vikings give Packers fans something to boo, other than Rodgers, 26-17.
DENVER BRONCOS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS
Line: DEN -3
Over/Under: 41.5
When ESPN tabbed this game for the opening night of Monday Night Football, I’ll bet they thought it was going to be the epic battle that normally is Denver/Oakland. Well, it’s not. It may be a good game competitively, but neither team is going anywhere. Oakland has a bright young talent in Darren McFadden, but he can’t do it alone. Fargas needs to be good, JaMarcus Russell needs to be spectacular, and the defense needs to play far better than anyone could have possibly imagined. If they can do that, they have a shot at 8-8. Maybe. A very long shot.
Denver is also bad. Which is good. Because I don’t care for Denver. Why? Don’t know. I just don’t like ‘em. Selvin Young may be OK this year, because it is Denver and they have a tendency to get the most out of their rushing game. Cutler doesn’t have the experience to astound anyone, and he really has no back-up, so it’s all on him. The offense won’t be pretty. The Broncos’ secondary will be good, thanks to the only Denver player I like, Champ Bailey. He’s getting old, but he’s still very good. The rest of the D is a questions mark. We’ll see how they play as the season wears on.
These teams are not likely to put up anywhere near 41 points…the under would be a pretty safe bet.
The line should be close…Both teams will be rushing the ball a lot. Denver has a much better secondary, though, and should hold the Raiders’ offense in check.
DEN -3 holds, as the Raiders can’t get anything through the air. Denver, 20-10.
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