RECAP - WEEK ONE

Week 1: 9-7
Linebusters: 2-3
Overall: 9-7 (2-3)

The theme of this week? "You've gotta be F$%#in' kidding me." Week one is always a bit of a feeling out process, but this one was just ridiculous. Brady going down changes everything in the AFC, so you may as well completely disregard my season predictions. I doubt New England will make the super bowl now. With him, they easily cover the spread. Obviously no one could have foreseen him going down in the first quarter. The Colts looked terrible. I'm not sure I have ever seen such a poor effort from their defense with a healthy Bob Sanders in the lineup. The Chargers...what can I say about the Chargers...they always seem to under-whelm, but this is ridiculous. Yeah, I may have overlooked the Panthers a little bit, but San Diego was just plain awful defensively, and LT was ineffective. And the Lions...wow is it going to be another long year in Detroit. Had I known they would not even try to stop the run, I would not have called it a linebuster. An all-around pathetic effort.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ NEW YORK GIANTS
Line: NYG -4
Over/Under: 41
Result: Giants 16-7
My Pick: WAS +4, because I remember the Giants D stinking it up early last year, until they hit their groove around week 3. Skins 23-20.

Ok, so I got off to a poor start. But had the Redskins scored on their second to last drive (which they should have, had Campbell's receivers CAUGHT ANYTHING) they would have beaten the spread. I was basically right that Washington would have a pretty good D this year, and that the Giants would be steady on offense, but wouldn't really blow too many people out of the water. A better offensive team would have beaten the G-men on Thursday night.

CINCINATTI BENGALS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
Line: CIN -1.5
Over/Under: 38.5
Result: Baltimore 17-10
My Pick: BAL +1.5. I’ve got to give the nod to rushing over passing, and health over experience. Ravens 17-13.

Despite some big misses, I did have quite a few games that I was just about perfect on. Only missed this one by a field goal. Also note that the Ravens did this without Willis McGahee. They can stand up to some teams this year.

NEW YORK JETS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS
Line: NYJ – 3
Over/Under: 36
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Result: Jets 20-14
My Pick: NYJ -3 easily make the spread 30-14.

Close...Too close...but right, nonetheless. Miami's offense looked a little better than I expected, though they still only managed the 14 points I predicted. The Jets didn't have as easy a time with the Dolphin D as I thought, but they put up enough to cover the spread. Both offenses will get better as Pennington and Favre get more reps with their new counterparts.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Line: NE -16/16.5
Over/Under: 45
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Result: Patriots 17-10
My Pick: Pats 38-13.

I was close with regard to what the Chiefs put up, but obviously there was one major play in this game that changed everything. Cassel couldn't get the Pats' offense anywhere near 38 points. Obviously. He's not the reigning NFL MVP. No more whispers of 16-0. We'll see if I even pick them as favorties in every game from here on out. Depending on the spread, I may even pick Favre and the Jets over the Pats this week!


HOUSTON TEXANS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Line: PIT -6.5
Over/Under: 43
Result: Steelers 38-17
My Pick: PIT – 6.5. Don’t bet against the Black and Gold at home in week one! Steelers 23-13.

I was basically right, but Pittsburgh looked WAY better than I imagined they would. Houston does not have a bad defense, but the Pittsburgh offensive line controlled Mario Williams, and managed to free up Willie Parker, who just went crazy for 138 yds and 3 TDs. Will the Black and Gold play this well every week? Probably not. But as long as the O-line plays that well every week, Benny boy can afford to make some mistakes and still win ballgames. How well did the O-line pass protect? Roethlisberger was 13/14...that's about as good as you'll see. Why only 14 attempts? Well, the O-line and Willie Parker were so good, why bother throwing?

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ TENNESSEE TITANS
Line: JAX -3
Over/Under: 37
Result: Titans 17-10
My Pick: JAX -3. It may be close, but not that close. 23-17 sounds about right.

Ok, so I was wrong. But there is a good reason why...Jacksonville forgot to bring their offense up to Tennessee. Ok, ok, maybe it was my fault for underestimating a very good Titans D. I knew they were good. I didn't know they were quite that good. Wow. At least I had the Titans' score right! Without Vince Young for the next couple weeks, the Titans may sputter. The D will stay good, but who knows what we can expect out of Kerry Collins.


DETROIT LIONS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
Line: DET -3
Over/Under: 41
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Result: Falcons 34-21
My Pick: Detroit wins 31-10.

Ok, Ok, I was WAY off. But honestly, who thought Matt Ryan would play well and Michael Turner would be unstoppable? The Lions got way behind early, and never could catch up. If that Detroit defense doesn't get any better, I'll be picking them to lose by 13+ every week. Were they even trying to stop the run? Atlanta gets props...I didn't know they'd be that much better. Now I have been shamed. I'll try to do better next time, Falcon fans.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ BUFFALO BILLS
Line: BUF -1
Over/Under: 39
Result: Bills 34-10
My Pick: BUF -1. Bills get things started off right. 20-16.

I almost feel like I was wrong, underestimating my own team like that! The Bills played some stellar football, and may have a shot at the AFC east crown, with the Pats falling on hard times. My only issue with the Bills is that their special teams cannot be expected to be so influential every game. They will, at some point, need to win games on offense. Edwards was consistently decent. At least he showed a little arm strength! The D looks great, and we can only hope that they perform as well every week. Great fire, great passion...I love to see that kind of effort out of my Buffalo Bills!

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Line: NO -3.5
Over/Under: 42.5
Result: Saints 24-20
My Pick: NO -3.5. It’ll be close, but the Saints come away with a 28-24 win on a late TD.

It wasn't that late, but the Saints did go ahead on a fourth-quarter TD to win the game. By four. In a close battle. Just about perfect on that pick. I'm glad to see that the Saints D can hold when the game is on the line. Tampa's D looks good too. Garcia is a capable passer, and if Graham continues rushing well, they should find themselves in the playoff hunt.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Line: PHI -7.5
Over/Under: 44
Result: Eagles 38-3
My Pick: PHI -7.5. I was actually tempted to go the other way and say that Philly would win by 7, but I just don’t think the Rams will score much against a good Philly D. Philly 24-10.

Well, I guess I messed up a bit on that one. Philly is much, much better offensively than I thought. The Rams? Well, they're just about as bad as I thought. The new Dolphins? Yeah, probably. But the Eagles could beat some very good teams this year long as McNabb continues playing so well and the D can hold up against better opponents. We'll find out what they're made of this week!

DALLAS COWBOYS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
Line: DAL -5.5
Over/Under: 49
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Result: Cowboys 28-10
My Pick: DAL -5.5. Are you kidding me? Try Dallas 38-17.

This one had less offense than I expected. That offensive line gave Romo all day to sit in the pocket and pick out receivers, which he did successfully on most of his attempts (24/32). The Dallas D looked porous on the first Browns drive, but really didn't let them get anything going thereafter. A nice effort. Both the D and O-line will be tested a bit more this week, however, when Philly comes to town.

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Line: SD -9
Over/Under: 42
Result: Panthers 26-24
My Pick: SD -9. The Chargers are too much for Carolina, 31-10.

This is the epitome of a week one WTF game. Are you kidding me? Can the Chargers defense really be that bad? No, they're really not. Did you know that the last-second TD was THE ONLY OFFENSIVE TD OF THE GAME for Carolina? Gamble returned the only Charger turnover for a TD, and Kasay booted 4 FGs. Of course, the Charger D shouldn't have kept letting Carolina into field goal range, but statistically this looks like a very unlucky loss. It wasn't all about turnovers...it wasn't Rivers, he played well...it wasn't allowing too much on the ground, as Williams only had 86. The stars just somehow aligned to let John Fox and company leave San Diego with a W.

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Line: ARI -2.5/3
Over/Under: 42
Result: Cardinals 23-13
My Pick: ARI -2.5/3. The cards should get off to a fast start. Arizona wins 24-13.

Nuff Said. I was only off by one point. JT O'Sullivan got his team into the endzone early, but after San Francisco got a case of the Fumblies, Arizona was able to pull away. The Cards have a good secondary, and I'd expect them to create a lot of turnovers this year. We'll see if Warner can hold the offense together enough for a playoff run.

CHICAGO BEARS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Line: IND -9.5/10
Over/Under: 44
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Result: Bears 29-13
My Pick: IND -9.5/10 wins this one easily, 38-3.

Ok, so I was way off on every part of this game. Orton did fine, and was consistent enough to allow Forte to find some holes on the ground. The Bears put up lots of points, which is unexpected and unlikely to happen again this year. Indy's excellent rush D from last year is gone. Peyton was off a little. It was all a bit surreal. I think Indy will get better and the Bears will fall off a bit, but it won't be on D...the fire from 2006 is back for the Chicago D, and I'll bet they can keep their team in some games this year.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
Line: GB -3
Over/Under: 38
Result: Packers 24-19
My Pick: MIN +3. The Vikings give Packers fans something to boo, other than Rodgers, 26-17.

Aaron Rodgers has learned a lot from his predecessor. Some of the throws he made and some of the plays he executed felt somehow familiar...Brett-esque, if you will. The Pack are going to be OK...I just needed to see it to believe it. Minnesota has a solid run D yet again, but their weaknesses in the secondary, though shored up a bit, may not be completely fixed. If Tarvaris Jackson cannot carry the offense (he can't, but for the sake of argument let's use "if") then Minnesota will be a disappointment this season. Their owner has spent a lot of money to get them on an elite level, and will not settle for anything less than an NFC title.

DENVER BRONCOS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS
Line: DEN -3
Over/Under: 41.5
Result: Broncos 41-14
My Pick: DEN -3 holds, as the Raiders can’t get anything through the air. Denver, 20-10.

Again, I'm right, but I feel wrong. Jay Cutler has made this team exciting to watch, and to be honest, I don't hate the Broncos right now. My loathe may return later in the season, but for now, let's see what they can do. The real reason I didn't like them last year was that they were always a loss for me. If I said they'd win, they'd lose. And vice versa. No matter what. Once, I even picked against them just to spite what I would have chosen...and I was wrong. But now that I was right in their first game of the season, maybe the Broncos will be "predictable" this season. They're going to be better than I expected. Cutler is an emerging star. Watch out, Chargers...the AFC West may not be all wrapped up for you anymore!