RECAP - WEEK FOUR

Week 4: 7-6 (31-28-1)
Linebusters: 2-3 (8-12)
Straight Picks (w/o line): 7-6 (36-24)

Some major upsets this week really threw everything for a loop. Rodgers threw 3 picks, KC showed up big, Houston played with the Jags, The Skins showed they can play defense even without Taylor, and the Bears put up points against Philly. What? Come on. This season has defined the word "unpredictable". At least I figured out the NFC North.

NO WAY!?
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Broncos -10
O/U: 46.5
LINEBUSTER!
My Pick: Denver -10. Broncos coast, 38-10.
Result: Chiefs 33-19
Seriously? Before the season, I said I hated Denver because last year they seemed to do the opposite of whatever I predicted, no matter who they played. I rescinded that theory, but may have done so prematurely. They got lucky to screw me on the game against San Diego, and then totally crapped the bed against Kansas City. The league's top offense was shut down by the #29 defense in the league. The league's #27 offense scored 33 points, albeit against the league's 3rd-worst D. It should not have gone down that way, but it did.

They did it! (but don't expect it to happen again...)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -3.5
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Browns +3.5. Romeo, Romeo, where for art thou Romeo...the Browns finally put up points and win 24-16.
Result: Browns 20-12
I knew the Browns would get things together at some point. Unfortunately for Browns fans, they still only put up 20 points. Not exactly an offensive explosion. If they can't do better than that against the Bengals' D, they're in real trouble.

Jags Continue to Struggle
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jags -7.5
O/U: 42
My Pick: Jags -7.5. Jacksonville 27-13.
Result: Jags 30-27 (ot)
Jacksonville has two wins, both on late field goals. One against a Houston team that isn't good, and one against an Indy team that keeps pretending not to be good. They have lost to the Titans and Bills, both undefeated, but both doing far better than expected. The Jags are, at best, a one-and-done playoff team right now.

Defense Anyone?
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -1.5
O/U: 45
My Pick: Jets -1.5. New York 33-24.
Result: Jets 56-35
I called a shootout, but 91 points? Yikes. The Jets set a franchise record for points in a quarter (34 in the 2nd), and the Cards proved that they're still not ready to be an elite team. Too many turnovers and mistakes...it seems that whenever Arizona gets anything going, like a 2-0 start, they blow it and fall back to mediocrity. I just hope they make the playoffs, as they haven't been since 1998 (longest active streak).

No Bush, No Problem
San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -6
O/U: 48.5
My Pick: Saints -6. New Orleans can't be at the bottom of the NFC south for long. Saints win 34-27.
Result: Saints 31-17
Yeah, I know, Bush played...but according to my fantasy stats for the week, he may as well have sat this one out. Yet the Saints were still able to put together a big second quarter and hold on for the win. It's going to be a fight in the NFC south...Carolina, New Orleans, and Tampa may all be in the hunt come mid-december!

Steve Smith is Back!
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -7
O/U: 39.5
My Pick: Panthers -7. Carolina wins a game without having to come from behind late, 24-13.
Result: Panthers 24-9
Solid rush defense will stop the Falcons every time, and Carolina sure can stop the run. Smith's TD, followed by the reconciliatory game ball donation to Ken Lucas, may be just what he needed to break out of his shell. He'll be a factor from here on out.


Welcome to the NFL, Mr. Wilf
Minnesota Vikings @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 36
My Pick: Vikings +3. Minnesota 23-17.
Result: Titans 30-17

He made some solid off-season acquisitions, but Zygi Wilf must now realize that it's not easy to build a super bowl contending team. His preseason aspirations were a bit high, and now, at 1-3, he may make some more rash decisions, as he did when he pressured the coaching staff to start Gus Frerotte. Tennessee is really, really good. They've beaten solid opposition, and are undoubtedly for real. Where they came from, however, is still in question. Nobody expected Fisher's club to be a premier team at this point in the season.



Dammit, Rodgers
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Bucs -1
O/U: 43
LINEBUSTER!
My Pick: Packers +1. Green Bay coasts 30-17.
Result: Bucs 30-21

If you throw 3 INTs, of course you'll lose. Granted, Griese did too. But the expectations for him were not as high, and Griese's mistakes were factored into the prediction. I just didn't expect Rodgers to play so bad. Without him, though, the Packers could be in trouble, so let's hope his shoulder heals quickly.



The Blowout that Wasn't
Buffalo Bills @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Bills -8
O/U: 41.5
LINEBUSTER!
My Pick: Bills -8. Buffalo stomps the Rams 38-12.
Result: 31-14

The final score does not reflect how close this game was. Buffalo was not as flat offensively as they were against the Raiders, and Marshawn Lynch played very well, but the Buffalo defense didn't show up until the Rams had already been in the endzone twice. The Bills don't have the offense to pull off large comebacks against good defenses, so they'll need to come out of the locker room ready to go from now on.



Are they Really this Bad?
San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Chargers -9
O/U: 45.5
LINEBUSTER!

My Pick: Chargers -9. The Chargers throw Lane Kiffin a going away party, 37-13.
Result: Chargers 28-18

The Chargers continue to struggle, and once again the Raiders came out strong, but faded down the stretch. We'll find out in a few weeks, when Buffalo heads to San Diego, whether or not the Chargers can beat a solid opponent.



Where did that come from?
Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -11
O/U: 46
LINEBUSTER!
My Pick: Cowboys -11. Dallas blows out the Skins 41-10.
Result: Skins 26-24

First of all, the Dallas defense knows as well as anyone that Santana Moss has always been a problem for them...so why wouldn't they get better coverage on him? I'm a little worried about the Dallas D if they're letting the Redskins move down the field with ease. The true story of this game was Washington's ability to throw blitz packages at Romo and generate solid pressure despite the absence of Jason Taylor. Dallas had the second-best offense in the league, but was unable to get anything going for most of the game. It'll be interesting to see how this division irons out, as there is clearly a ton of parity from top to bottom.



Come On
Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears
Line: Eagles -3
O/U: 41
My Pick: Eagles -3. Philly 31-9.
Result: Bears 24-20

Da Bears. Back and Forth. Beating good teams, blowing big leads against other good teams. They'll be tough to figure out the rest of the way. McNabb should have picked apart that Chicago pass defense, and the Philly D must be very upset with itself after allowing the Bears to put up 24 points. They also gave ESPN.com the chance to recommend Kyle Orton as a fantasy quarterback for those who are struggling in deep leagues. Orton shouldn't even be in fantasy-related conversations.

Give Those Trainers a Pay Raise!
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -7
O/U: 35.5
My Pick: Ravens +7. Baltimore shows that they can beat teams from outside of Ohio, 16-13.
Result: Steelers 23-20 (ot)
Baltimore didn't win, but the Ravens certainly showed that they are going to be a tough team to play all season long. That is, of course, assuming they can get healthy. By the end of this game, each team only had one running back left! Good thing they didn't go too far into OT. The Ravens D looks like the shut-down, fighting, tear off your face sort of D that Balitmore sported in its super bowl year. They'll have to hold up physically to carry Flacco through his inevitable growing pains. I was impressed with Flacco's composure and ability to lead the Ravens down the field late for a TD, but he'll have some stumbles along the way.

BYES: DET, MIA, NE, SEA, IND, NYG