RECAP - WEEK THREE

This Week (vs. line): 9-7
Linebusters: 2-3 (6-9)
Overall: 24-22-1
Straight Picks (w/o line): 12-4 (29-18)

Now you know why I don't get paid to do this. Last year, I was right most of the time. I swear. This year, teams are choking, late comebacks are blowing everything up, and there are a handful of teams that are impossible to pick. I'm not in practice on Friday. How the hell can I know whether or not half of these teams are going to bother showing up on Sunday?

Well, there's one team that's easy...
Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -6
O/U: 36.
Falcons -6. I'll take the under, and Atlanta to win it 20-10.
Result: Falcons 38-14
The Chiefs are going to be pretty easy to pick against all year. The Falcons, on the other hand, could beat the spread in some games they shouldn't. In this game, they looked good again. At this point, I'm ready to don them the "new Browns", a team that alternated between good and bad performances for the first 15 or so weeks last season. So next week they'll lose!

WHEW!
Oakland Raiders @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Bills -9.5
O/U: 36.5
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Bills -9.5. I'll take the over, and Buffalo 34-7.
Result: Bills 24-23
How was this game close? Well, Buffalo didn't show up. Oakland played well, and the Bills were flat. In retrospect, I'm pleased with my Bills, because they showed that even when they play like crap, they can still find a way to get the "W". Another team that had this unique "ability" was the 2007 Pats...they didn't show up against the Ravens, but still left with a win. No, the Bills won't be undefeated. But they could be very good.

How long can this last?
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -5
O/U: 39
Texans +5.5. I think the Titans may win by a field goal in a close, low scoring game. Tennessee 20-17
Result: Titans 31-12
I am very impressed with the Titans, and now, having handily beaten a team they were supposed to beat, which is always a tough mental challenge, I'm ready to say that they're for real. The Texans held in there for a while, but just couldn't sustain it. Hopefully they'll put it all together and get at least a few wins this year.

See, I knew I shouldn't have gotten behind the Giants
Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -13.5
O/U: 41.5
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Giants -13.5. Take the over. G-men win big 38-13.
Result: Giants 26-23 (ot)
Every day I hear about how great the Giants are. At first, I didn't believe it. But I was indoctrinated to believe that, at 2-0, they were even better than last year. I should have known better, and from here on out, I will be more careful. The Bengals played OK, but they're still an awful team. They have the talent to win some games they shouldn't, but it will have to involve, much like this game did, a better team that decides not to show up.

Told ya.
Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Redskins
Line: Skins -3
O/U: 42
Skins -3. Take the under. Skins win 23-14.
Result: Skins 24-17
This "told ya so" is two-fold. First, I told you the Skins D was pretty darn good. Second, I told you that the Cards won two games against poor defensive schemes, and that the Redskins could stop the Cards' passing attack. The NFC East still has not lost outside of the conference. The Redskins are a good team, but their finish will depend on who they can beat within the conference. The Cards are a playoff team.

Parity
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -12.5
O/U: 35.5
Dolphins +12.5. I'm going with the over, and the Pats 24-13.
Result: Dolphins 38-13
"Any Given Sunday" has proven to be true yet again. Props to Joey Porter for backing up what he said early in the week. The Pats need to worry, because now teams will follow the Dolphins gameplan and learn how to shut down Cassel and the offense. Of course, the Pats aren't really as bad as this game makes them look. Conversely, the Fins still aren't that good. They had a great gameplan, and executed it perfectly. They'll be much improved from last year, but not as good as they looked Sunday.

Fear the Pirate
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -3
O/U: 35.5
Bucs +3. Tampa is better than advertised. Go under. Bucs win 17-10.
Result: Bucs 27-24 (ot)
The key thing to take away from this game is that, even against one of the league's better defenses, the Bucs now have enough offense to pull off a late-game comeback. They'll be in a fight for the division with the Saints, and the loser of that battle will have the only shot at a wild card slot outside of the NFC East. Chicago won't be the worst team in the NFC North, but they need to find a way to hold onto late-game leads. With that defense, it shouldn't be this hard for them to win games in which they hold fourth quarter leads.

Determination
Carolina Panthers @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -3.5
O/U: 37.5
Vikings -3.5. Goin' over, Minny 26-21.
Result: Vikings 20-10
This game was won on sheer will. After allowing 10 points early on, the Viking defense became impenetrable. They are ranked as one of the best defenses in the league, and they showed up Sunday. The offense wasn't great, but once Tarvaris gets back in there (and he will...), as long as the defense can keep them in games, they can win. Carolina is a solid team, but I will wait until they play the Saints or Bucs before I say that they could be in the playoff hunt.

Why bother playing the games?
St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -9.5
O/U: 44
Seahawks -9.5. I'm going under, as the Seahawks will blow out the Rams, but won't necessarily put up a ton of points. Seattle 27-13.
Result: Seahawks 37-13
Though I predicted this, if you're St. Louis, what are you thinking? How do you get up to practice every day? They just go out, week after week, and get steamrolled. Unless they play the Chiefs, they might not win. That is sad. Seattle needed that win. We'll see if it helps them get back some confidence.

Speaking of useless...
Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -4
O/U: 46
Lions +4. Go over. Lions win 31-27.
Result: 49ers 31-13
Ok, so San Fran is a bit better than I thought. But the Lions are totally useless. What is up? They have receivers. Kitna should be able to get them the ball. This team scares me, because one of these days they'll show up ready to play, and might beat somebody. Until then, though, all I can do is pick against them.

That Boy's Got a Lot of Quit in him...
New Orleans Saints @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -5.5
O/U: 51
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Denver -5.5. I'm going over, and taking the Broncos 33-24.
Result: Denver 34-32
The Broncos blew another 21-3 lead, yet got lucky and still won. Last week, it was the ref. This week, it was Martin Gramatica's miss. One of the most powerful offenses in the league scored only 10 points in the second half against a poor defense, and didn't score at all in the fourth quarter. Why? Because God forbid they beat the spread. Jackasses. The Saints showed good offense, and the defense played pretty well when it needed to. If the defense can get psyched up to perform well earlier in games, this team could surprise some people.

The NFC East is GOOD
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -3
O/U: 45
Eagles -3. I'm going with the over. Philly wins it 31-23.
Result: Eagles 15-6
These are both good football teams, but Philly's performance so far shows just how spectacular the NFC East really is. The only concern is if Donovan McNabb is hurt. He missed a few plays Sunday, and if that becomes a nagging injury, he may not be able to continue playing at the level he has been, which may be the best he's played in his career.

How are the Colts Losing?
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -5.5
O/U: 41.5
Indy -5.5. Go under. The Colts win it 24-17.
Result: Jags 23-21
Seriously. What's up, Indy? New England falls on hard times, and you'd expect the Colts, with all of that talent, to become the class of the league and the team to beat. They didn't. For some reason, the offense is just OK, and the defense is very beatable. The Jags needed this win, but so did the Colts. Now two teams that were expected to not just be playoff teams, but Super Bowl contenders, are 1-2 and looking up at the 3-0 Titans.

Cleveland Does Not Rock
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -2
O/U: 38.5
Browns +2. I'm going over. Cleveland 27-13.
Result: Ravens 28-10
I waffled back and forth on this game, but decided to go with the Browns because they are desperate, needed the win, and had enough offense last season to put up points. So much for that. The Ravens are a solid team, as usual, because they have a great defense that can keep them in any game, a solid rushing attack, and a young quarterback who is playing well. Sorry Ohio, but it's going to be a long year.

Best Team in the NFL?
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Cowboys -3
O/U: 51.5
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
Dallas -3. Go Over. Dallas puts a hurtin on the Pack, 35-17.
Result: Cowboys 27-16
I love Tony Romo's attitude. Before the game, he spoke about how excited he was to be at Lambeau, and said that the Cowboys weren't looking ahead, and instead were just having fun with each game. We teach our children that winning isn't everything, and that they should just go out and have fun. It's amazing to see people at the NFL level who still try to have fun when they play. It actually makes the game more fun to watch. Green Bay will be fine. They're just not a good as the Cowboys.

Monday Night Shootout
New York Jets @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -9
O/U: 44
LINEBUSTER ALERT!
My Pick: Chargers -9. I'll take the under. San Diego finally gets a W 27-14.
Result: Chargers 48-29
Guess I shouldn't have taken the under. What a crazy game offensively. San Diego has put up 24, 38, and now 48 in their first 3 games, so clearly LT's struggles haven't impacted the offense too much. The defense allowed too many points again, though, so San Diego has something to worry about. The Jets are a .500 football team, possibly worse. I was impressed by Favre's 3 TDs, but he won't do that every week, so if the defense is going to be this porous, the Jets are going to have issues.