LINEBUSTER PREVIEW - WEEK ONE

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ NEW YORK GIANTS
Line: NYG -4
Over/Under: 41

The Giants haven’t really made any offensive changes since last year, and have lost a lot defensively. We all know that defense wins championships. Justin Tuck is great. Can he do it by himself? Probably. But the Giants’ defensive plan last season, which helped them win rings, was to platoon the defensive line, so the guys were almost always rested. Without two major contributors to that platoon, there may be problems. As soon as the Giants fail to get the same kind of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, everything may fall apart. Keep in mind that until the postseason, the Giants weren’t that great anyway. Eli and the offense have renewed confidence, but it was really the defense that won them a super bowl. The offense was merely consistent. Let’s see how consistent they can remain when every team in the league is gunning for them as defending Super Bowl champions.
The Redskins made quite a few changes to improve their football team, but we will have to see how head coaching virgin Jim Zorn holds up. They have a solid platoon of rushers, including Portis, Betts, and Cartwright, and their new OC just spent 13 years coaching the running backs of the Titans/Oilers, so you can bet that there will be plenty of backfield action from Washington. Of course, Zorn was the quarterbacks coach in Seattle, and has been working with Campbell to get him ready for the new offensive scheme, which features mostly short passing routes. So the Skins may have a balanced attack after all. The defense is improved, and once Jason Taylor is 100%, they should be good enough to at least compete in the league’s toughest division.
This game comes down to D…I expect both offenses to be efficient, but not explosive. 41 may be a little high for an O/U, but if one of the defenses falters (NYG w/o Strahan & Osi, WAS maybe w/o Taylor?) 41 is reachable. The line is pretty well set. If you can remember back to last season, the Giants were not phenomenal until the playoffs…so now, without a few defensive studs, they may be vulnerable. Of course, the Skins are very unproven, with a new coach, some new defensive faces, a new offensive scheme, and what some may call a second-rate passer, until he proves otherwise.

I’m going WAS +4, because I remember the Giants D stinking it up early last year, until they hit their groove around week 3. Skins 23-20.


CINCINATTI BENGALS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
Line: CIN -1.5
Over/Under: 38.5

How healthy is Chad Johnson, can the Bengals run the ball, how good can Willis McGahee and Joe Flacco be, and will Ray Rice have an impact? That’s about it. We know the rest. The Ravens’ D will be good, and likely fun to watch, the Bengals D will have flashes of brilliance, but won’t be amazing. Carson Palmer will pass well, but will there be anybody healthy enough to catch the ball? Flacco has a good arm, but hasn’t been tested too much. Preseason football only goes so far. We’ll have to see if he can remain composed in a much more difficult league than he is used to (did Delaware play anybody?). I expect Troy Smith to be a difference maker, and ultimately become the starter by the end of the year, provided he stays healthy. Ray Rice supposedly looked great in training camp, and may be a very solid backup to Willis McGahee, who needs to have a great season.
The over/under seems a bit high for a game pitting a less-than healthy offense against a great defense, and an unproven offense against a steady-enough defense. Of course, if Ocho Cinco and Houshmandzadeh are healthy and ready to go, the scoreboard could be lit up. And if the Ravens tailbacks get going, you’re likely looking at the same situation. The line is basically a pick-em…who do you think will win? Too many unproven players and injuries are involved in this game to call it a linebuster.

I’m going with BAL +1.5. I’ve got to give the nod to rushing over passing, and health over experience. Ravens 17-13.


NEW YORK JETS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS
Line: NYJ – 3
Over/Under: 36

LINEBUSTER ALERT!

Here we go! The Dolphins still suck, and I continue to despise them. It’s only week one, but I’m rooting for them to have another shot at 0-16! Are you kidding me? Brett Favre is out to prove that the Packers blew it by not letting him come back. I don’t care if his only receivers are the ballboy and the overweight mechanic from the local gas station…he’ll get them the ball, and find a way to win by far more than 3 points…it’s the freaking Dolphins!
In all seriousness, though, Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown will be a formidable rushing combo, and Ted Ginn Jr. could have a breakout year. Favre has something to prove, but so does Chad Pennington, facing his old team on opening day. The Jets don’t have stars on D, but they always seem to play consistently. The real issue for the Fins is that their two defensive stars in recent years (Zach Thomas, Jason Taylor) are gone, and there really isn’t much else back there. Joey Porter isn’t as good as he was when he wore black and gold.
Look for the O/U to get blown out of the water by two quarterbacks looking to make statements. Expect some interceptions, too…they’ll both be trying to force balls.
The line could be accurate if Ted Ginn Jr. and Ricky Williams are stars, and the Dolphin D holds firm. Too many “ifs” for me.

NYJ -3 easily make the spread 30-14.


KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Line: NE -16/16.5
Over/Under: 45
LINEBUSTER ALERT!

There is no question that the Pats will be an excellent team again this year. The only question each week will be “how excellent?” The Chiefs are still going to under whelm. Larry Johnson is capable, as is Tony Gonzalez. But would you entrust your offense to a guy named Brody? Come on. He is totally unproven, and will likely have a rough year. The defense isn’t much better. 6-10 would be a pretty successful season for the Chiefs this year. On the other hand, Pats fans won’t settle for less than 19-0. Week one, they win without problems. We’ll see where they go from there.
The Pats really killed teams early in the season last year, scoring at least 34 points in each of their first 8 games. I expect the over/under to get destroyed.
The line should too. Like I said, the Pats were killing teams last year. 38-14 wouldn’t be a bad prediction for this game, which would give the Pats a 24-point win. Which is 8 better than the line.

NE -16/16.5. Easy pick. If not, they have underachieved! Pats 38-13.


HOUSTON TEXANS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Line: PIT -6.5
Over/Under: 43

This is a tough game to call. Both of these teams may have great seasons, but each could collapse just as easily. Pittsburgh needs Willie Parker to be outstanding. The wide receiver corps is aging. The defense shouldn’t have any problems. It is also the second year for head coach Mike Tomlin, which may mean a better product on the field. Houston is looking at similar issues…a solid defense and an unproven offense. Matt Schaub may have a great year, but he needs help from his wide receiver corps. Andre Johnson can’t catch every pass (can he?). Ahman Green has experience, but is getting a bit old. Yes, 31 is old for a running back. He had a few good seasons in Green Bay, but can he play well enough to take the pressure off of the Texans passing game? Time will tell.
Two solid defensive units against two unproven offenses…makes me think the O/U is a bit high.
The line is likely pretty accurate. Parker and Roethlisberger should break through more often than Green and Schaub.

PIT – 6.5. Don’t bet against the Black and Gold at home in week one! Steelers 23-13.


JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ TENNESSEE TITANS
Line: JAX -3
Over/Under: 37

The only reason this is not a linebuster? Vince Young. Yes, he can single-handedly keep this a close game. Both teams have excellent defenses and quarterbacks with much more experience and confidence than they had last season (Young and Garrard). LenDale White should be very good this year too. The one issue for the Titans becomes whether or not McCareins, Gage, and Williams will play well enough (assuming Vince gets them the ball in the first place) to take the pressure off the backfield and free up White and Young to run. The Jags know how to get just enough out of their passing game to free up their excellent tailback tandem of Taylor and Jones-Drew, and I expect them to do it successfully all year long.
The O/U is accurate…20-17 wouldn’t be an outrageous final score.
The Jags have their sights set very high this year, and though the Titans always play them close, expect them to come out with a win.

JAX -3. It may be close, but not that close. 23-17 sounds about right.


DETROIT LIONS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
Line: DET -3
Over/Under: 41

LINEBUSTER ALERT!

I am well aware that both of these teams are terrible. But the Lions are much less terrible, and should win by more than 3. Matt Ryan will need to grow into the QB position in Atlanta, and it might help if Atlanta gave him somebody to throw the ball to. The one decent receiver the Falcons had was tight end Alge Crumpler, and he’s gone! Can Michael Turner run for 150 yards every game? No, no he cannot. The Lions won enough games early in the year last season to have built up a bit of confidence. Calvin Johnson is apparently going to be the second coming of TO this year, except without the mouth and attitude. Kitna is capable enough to get him the ball, but if Jon goes down, look out! He has no real back-up.
The O/U is set well, the line is not.

DET -3. The Lions should actually produce offensively. Detroit wins 31-10.


SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ BUFFALO BILLS
Line: BUF -1
Over/Under: 39

Am I the only Bills fan who thinks Trent Edwards and JP Losman are both useless? Why can’t we get somebody good? Thankfully for the Bills, they open the season as slight favorites over a Seattle team that no longer has Shaun Alexander, and really doesn’t feature much in the wide receiving corps until Deion Branch comes back. And that is assuming he decides to play as well this year as he did in his breakout year, 2005 with New England. Seattle’s defense should be decent again, but if Hasslebeck can’t get anything going in the passing game, there won’t be any holes for Maurice Morris and new additions Julius Jones (DAL) and TJ Duckett (DET) to run through. Buffalo could actually have a shot at the playoffs. Evans, Reed, and Parrish are all capable wideouts (look for Parrish to have a big year), and Marshawn Lynch is a very good tailback. The offensive line should be good enough to give Edwards time in the pocket, and as long as he sticks to throwing the ball short, he should do alright. He just doesn’t have the arm to go downfield like Losman can. But he has something between his ears that Losman doesn’t have, so I’m not complaining.
The O/U isn’t bad. I wouldn’t be too surprised if they come up short, as nobody really brings a whole lot of offense to the table.
The line doesn’t matter. Who will win? As a fan, I say Buffalo. On paper, I say Buffalo. So, umm, we’re going to go with Buffalo.

BUF -1. Bills get things started off right. 20-16.


TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Line: NO -3.5
Over/Under: 42.5

How can you root against the Saints? Reggie Bush should be electrifying this season. They have a solid QB in Brees, and excellent threats for him to throw to in Colston and Devery Henderson. They played well below expectations last year, but I don’t expect to see that again. Not only should their offense be good, but the defense can put together stops. Check out the depth chart…it is almost surprising how much talent they have on that side of the ball! Tampa won the division last year despite only getting to take the Cadillac out of the garage once! Now they have parted with him altogether, and will rely on Earnest Graham and Warrick Dunn to shoulder the load, which they should be capable of doing. Galloway and Hilliard are excellent pass threats, and despite his age, Jeff Garcia is still a capable passer. Tampa’s best years were characterized by defense, and this should be no exception. Barring injuries, the secondary could be one of the best in the league. This game will help to determine how the NFC south will shake up all year long.
O/U is set well. Great D and O, but don’t expect a 42-35 final.
I’m struggling with this pick. I like both of these teams for different reasons. The only way to choose is to decide on an X factor…mine is playing in New Orleans right after yet another hurricane hit the area. How do you bet against the Saints in that situation?

NO -3.5. It’ll be close, but the Saints come away with a 28-24 win on a late TD.


ST. LOUIS RAMS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Line: PHI -7.5
Over/Under: 44

The Rams won’t be very good. That said, I think the Eagles may finish last in the NFC East, though they will likely be 7-9 or 8-8. McNabb doesn’t have any real threats to throw to, and now that he doesn’t scramble, the passing game will be neutralized by most good defenses. Brian Westbrook is an excellent all around talent, but without any other options offensively, how can he break free? It is possible that because the Eagles have no big name receivers, the defense will not know who to key on and McNabb will have options downfield, especially against lesser defenses, i.e the Rams. Also, am I the only one who feels like Westbrook has got to be at least 33? He’s actually only 29, though it feels like he’s been playing forever.
Steven Jackson will play much better than he did last year, and the Rams still have speed and some very good receivers, so if Bulger plays well, the offense may produce. The defense will have to play far above expectations, though, if the Rams are going to threaten in the weak NFC West.
The O/U is proper, as the Eagles won’t score too many points, but should be able to win comfortably.
The line may actually be high if the Rams come out playing to their potential. After last season, though, there is no reason to think that will happen.

PHI -7.5. I was actually tempted to go the other way and say that Philly would win by 7, but I just don’t think the Rams will score much against a good Philly D. Philly 24-10.


DALLAS COWBOYS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
Line: DAL -5.5
Over/Under: 49

LINEBUSTER ALERT!

Everyone is picking the Cowboys to make the Super Bowl. Nobody is picking the Browns to do much of anything. So how will they stay within 6 points of Romo and the Cowboy offense? They won’t. Dallas looks great on paper, but Marian Barber is going to have to be special, because his backups are largely unproven. Without a running game, there could be problems. Assuming health though, not many teams will compete with the Cowboys this year. The defense is excellent once again, and with a healthy Zach Thomas in the middle, they should give every team they play difficulty.
What can be said about the Browns? Last season, they went back and forth, but never beat a quality team. Derek Anderson is an OK QB, and Jamal Lewis is a great rusher. When everything clicks, this team can put up a lot of points. But things don’t often “click”. The defense should be OK, but not spectacular. Dallas will shred them.
The over/under is accurate, as the Cowboys will put up big numbers, but will hold Cleveland to only a few points.
The line is low. Cowboys will win huge.

DAL -5.5. Are you kidding me? Try Dallas 38-17.


CAROLINA PANTHERS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Line: SD -9
Over/Under: 42

San Diego should be one of the best teams in the league this year, but Shawne Merriman SHOULD NOT be playing. If you seek 4 “second” opinions, finally find a doctor who says that you can play, but should probably have surgery instead, and you decide to play, you are AN IDIOT! The first three doctors likely said SURGERY NOW. Which is why he kept searching. Without him, San Diego would still be good, and likely would still win a weak AFC West. I assume he won’t play a full season, and will not play his best anyway because of his knee. So all predictions will be done as though Merriman does not exist. The Chargers still have a good D, but will give up more points without Merriman. The offense is unquestionably good, but Phillip Rivers may be the X factor…so he goes, so goes the team. If he has a bad outing, teams can just pack 7 guys in the box to stop LT, and the offense will be stagnant. Carolina is not bad, but not great. Without Steve Smith in the lineup the first two weeks, they’ll lose. They just don’t have enough other options. DeAngelo Williams was much better than expected last year, and he should remain consistent this season as well. The defense is alright, but not extraordinary. To stop LaDainian Tomlinson, you must be extraordinary.
The over/under is proper. Carolina won’t score much. If anything, go under.
The line may be low. San Diego should have the offense moving pretty well against the Panthers, especially at home.

SD -9. The Chargers are too much for Carolina, 31-10.


ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Line: ARI -2.5/3
Over/Under: 42

Arizona should have a really good offense this season. Of course, they should have been much more electrifying last year, too. They play in a weak division, and could win it if they don’t make too many mistakes. Edgerrin James is still a premiere running back, and the Cards have plenty of great receivers. Warner has been tabbed the starter, but I’d expect Leinart to get some time as well. Either guy should be able to get the ball where he needs to and put up points. The Arizona defense is pretty good, too, and usually plays opportunistic football. Look for them to force quite a few turnovers. As long as the Offensive Line holds up, the Cards should be decent.
San Fran is better, but still not there yet. JT O’Sullivan (yeah, I know, WHO?) beat out Alex Smith for the starting QB job, and if he can run an offense (I have no idea who he is, so let’s assume he can’t…) the 49ers could win some games. They have wide-outs, including one of the greats, Issac Bruce. They have a solid rushing tandem of Frank Gore and DeShaun Foster. There isn’t a whole lot of talent on the defense, but Patrick Willis has come on as one of the better linebackers in the league. He will have to be outstanding for the 49ers to contend.
San Fran’s offense is ultimately unproven with O’Sullivan at the helm, but their rushing game should still do OK in week one. So the O/U may be low.
The line actually seems low, because an Arizona win sure appears to be in the Cards.

ARI -2.5/3. The cards should get off to a fast start. Arizona wins 24-13.

CHICAGO BEARS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Line: IND -9.5/10
Over/Under: 44

LINEBUSTER ALERT!

Apparently the Bears are atrocious, and Indy will be good once again. Chicago is likely going to start rookie tailback Matt Forte, and with their longstanding difficulties passing the ball, the offense could be worse than it used to be, if that’s possible. Orton may be decent, and we can expect Devin Hester to be great yet again, but who else is there? Marty Booker? The defense should be good, but they should always be good. They underachieved last year, but I would expect them to have a little more pride in their efforts this season, especially since the Bears may need to win games 3-0.
Indy will be great again, with Joseph Addai, Marvin Harrison, and Peyton Manning all back at it again. Harrison had a less-than-stellar injury-plagued year in 2007, and you can bet that due to his recent off the field troubles, he’ll be on a quest to prove himself this year. Even the Colts O-line is solid…their offense looks like a pro-bowl team! The defense was very good at run stopping last season, and really played with a chip on their shoulders. They do not want the Colts to be thought of as an all-offense team that has to win every game in a shootout. This year’s D may be a little more suspect, but I don’t think they’ll be tested against the Bears.
The over/under is high…the Colts won’t score 44, and the Bears may not score any!
Indy should have no trouble covering the spread.

IND -9.5/10 wins this one easily, 38-3.


MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
Line: GB -3
Over/Under: 38

How does a winter in Green Bay look with no Brett Favre? Nobody knows. It will be a different Packers team this season, as they try to prove that last season was not all Brett Favre. The problem? Last season was all Brett Favre. Greg Jennings became an excellent threat, and Ryan Grant played well, but I don’t know that they can play to that level again. Now that Grant is an even bigger part of the offense, he may not be able to shoulder the load. Aaron Rodgers may not react well to being booed at home…which he will be whenever he makes a mistake. This is not going to be a fun year in Wisconsin. The defense is largely the same, but a year older. How will they hold up? Time will tell. My guess is that they won’t be anywhere near as good as last year.
Minnesota is an up-and-comer. Adrian Peterson is for real. He will soon take LaDainian Tomlinson’s spot at the top of fantasy draft boards across the world. If Tavaris Jackson can perform as well as everyone seems to think he can, and the Minnesota defense is as good as they have the potential to be, this could be a very good season for the Vikings. Their only issue may be that if Jackson cannot get the passing game together, everyone will key on Peterson, and he’ll have nowhere to go. I’m not too worried about that, though.
The O/U is about right for two teams with pretty good defenses.
Upset Special time. Minny walks into Lambeau and leaves with a W!

MIN +3. The Vikings give Packers fans something to boo, other than Rodgers, 26-17.


DENVER BRONCOS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS
Line: DEN -3
Over/Under: 41.5

When ESPN tabbed this game for the opening night of Monday Night Football, I’ll bet they thought it was going to be the epic battle that normally is Denver/Oakland. Well, it’s not. It may be a good game competitively, but neither team is going anywhere. Oakland has a bright young talent in Darren McFadden, but he can’t do it alone. Fargas needs to be good, JaMarcus Russell needs to be spectacular, and the defense needs to play far better than anyone could have possibly imagined. If they can do that, they have a shot at 8-8. Maybe. A very long shot.
Denver is also bad. Which is good. Because I don’t care for Denver. Why? Don’t know. I just don’t like ‘em. Selvin Young may be OK this year, because it is Denver and they have a tendency to get the most out of their rushing game. Cutler doesn’t have the experience to astound anyone, and he really has no back-up, so it’s all on him. The offense won’t be pretty. The Broncos’ secondary will be good, thanks to the only Denver player I like, Champ Bailey. He’s getting old, but he’s still very good. The rest of the D is a questions mark. We’ll see how they play as the season wears on.
These teams are not likely to put up anywhere near 41 points…the under would be a pretty safe bet.
The line should be close…Both teams will be rushing the ball a lot. Denver has a much better secondary, though, and should hold the Raiders’ offense in check.

DEN -3 holds, as the Raiders can’t get anything through the air. Denver, 20-10.