Houston Texans @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -4.5
O/U: 47
Linebuster!
The Texans have won three games in a row, but heading up to Minnesota will be a much more difficult test. The Vikings' window of opportunity in the NFC North is closing quickly, and if they want to compete with or surpass the Packers and Bears, they'll need to win the games they are supposed to win. This falls into that category. Plus they're coming off the Bye.
Vikings -4.5. Minnesota is rested and ready to win. 27-20.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Jags -8
O/U: 40
This game is difficult to call. After being correct about the Jags staying close (too close) to the Browns last week, I'm worried that 8 points is a ton to give this team. But if there is any time I'll take the Jags on a large spread, it's now. They absolutely must win this week, and Cincinnati's offense is awful.
Jags -8. Hate to say the Jags will win big...but I'm going to. 24-13.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Bucs -9
O/U: 36.5
The last time the Bucs played a pancake (Seattle), they allowed a late touchdown and didn't beat the spread because of it. Kansas City put up points last week, but will have a lot more trouble with the Bucs D than they did with that of the Jets. The question is: "will this be a statement game that Tampa wins huge? Or will they do just enough to win and phone it in for the fourth quarter allowing the Chiefs to stay within 9?" A quick look at the Chiefs' schedule reveals that, though the Chiefs beat the Broncos at home, they were blown out at arrowhead by both the Raiders and Titans. I've gotta think Tampa wants this to be another blowout.
Bucs -9. Last week was an enigma. Chiefs are back (not a good thing!). Bucs 27-9.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Browns -1.5
O/U: 36
The Browns are playing much better lately, but the Ravens come in with the league's #2 defense, and Cleveland is still near the bottom of the charts offensively. Flacco is looking better and better, and I don't think he's due for a setback quite yet. Plus Baltimore beat the Browns by 18 at home, so why wouldn't they be able to win on the road?
Ravens +1.5. Baltimore wins a tough battle 20-17.
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Bills -5.5
O/U: 42
Linebuster!
Buffalo comes off a loss in their first division game of the season, and will be ornary and ready to beat the hell out of the Jets. As long as McGee doesn't get burned deep again, Buffalo should be fine. The Jets are on the down swing after a loss in Oakland and a tough win over the Chiefs. They're the 4th best team in the AFC East, and they'll prove it coming down the stretch.
Bills -5.5. Come on Buffalo. Prove you are among the AFC's Elite. 27-13.
Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Cards -3
O/U: 48
Linebuster!
The Rams have been getting much better, and the Cards haven't been great on the road. But their road losses were all east coast, and they don't have to go quite that far this time. I think the Cards know how important this game has become, as they don't want to be caught from behind in the division at the last minute. This is a game they need to distance themselves a little more from the pack.
Cards -3. Arizona comes out gunnin' 34-21.
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
Line: Bears -13
O/U: 43
The Lions are trying to stay competitive, and need to show up, at least a little, to prove they can. The game is in Detroit. I have a hard time giving the Bears, with marginal offense at best, 13 points on the road against a team that has a ton to prove. Then again, Chicago beat them by 27 at Soldier Field. But I've been burned by too many wide spreads already this season.
Lions +13. I have to say they keep it close. Bears win 27-17.
Green Bay Packers @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -5.5
O/U: 41.5
The Packers have stumbled a few times, and the Titans are without question the best team in football right now. People are saying this could be a trap game, but I think that the Titans are in the unique position of always having something to prove. Even if it doesn't exist, they can manufacture an underdog mentality by saying that the media doesn't respect them yet because they're a small market team. Therefore Tennessee is the one team I don't expect to ever come out flat, as they always have a way to psych themselves up. Plus Fisher's a hell of a coach.
Titans -5.5. They really are that good. Titans 24-17.
Miami Dolphins @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -3
O/U: 49
Despite coming off their bye week, I think this will be a tough game for the Broncos. Miami has played its best against its better opponents all season. Their wins are over the Chargers, Bills, and Pats. The Miami secondary may have some issues with Denver's passing game, but the Denver defense is terrible, and I'm not sure if they have an answer for the Wildcat. In the end, however, I'll give it to Denver because it is so tough for away teams to get used to the elevation change.
Broncos -3. If this game were anywhere else, I'd go the other way. Mile High is a great Asset. Denver wins 31-23.
Atlanta Falcons @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Falcons -3
O/U: 41
Linebuster!
Atlanta is playing well, Matt Ryan is coming into his own, and even at home the Raiders can only beat teams that come out completely flat. Atlanta has a lot of respect to play for, and still has a shot in their division if they can make a run. I doubt they'll come out flat.
Falcons -3. Atlanta heads West and comes back with a W. 27-17.
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -9
O/U: 41
Ok, now this pisses me off. I just gained a lot of respect for the Giants last week, I wanted to pick them to win this game, and the oddsmakers go and do something silly like give them a 9-point spread against their bitter rivals. I can't pick them to cover that! I don't care if Romo is out, Dallas will compete in this game. Their D held Tampa to 9 points, so don't expect the Giants to get much higher than 20. These teams have had some shootouts recently, but Dallas knows they can't win a shootout, so they will be focused on not letting it become one. Johnson plays steady, the Boys lose, but not by 9.
Cowboys +9. They have to keep this close. Giants win 23-20.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Eagles -7
O/U: 43
This game scares me. Philly could go off at any second offensively and put up a ton of points. But after a statement game last week against the 49ers, Seattle could be ready to show the NFL that they aren't an easy W, especially in their own place. It all comes down to talent for me, and with Hasslebeck out, Philly has all of it. Plus, with the Cowboys reeling, Philly sees and opening to get back in the NFC East race, so they should be playing hard.
Eagles -7. Philly comes out with an important win 27-13.
New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -5.5
O/U: 44
This game is an absolute must-win for Indy. These two teams always battle close, and the question for me is whether or not I think the Colts will win by 6 or more. With Bob Sanders back in the secondary and Joseph Addai likely returning as well, I think Indy will pull it out.
Colts -5.5. Indy wins 31-17.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Washington Redskins
Line: Redskins -1.5
O/U: 37
Linebuster!
The Redskins seem to find a way to win games, but haven't been doing it by enough points to make me fully believe in them. Pittsburgh needs to bounce back after last week's loss. The Skins have a good D, but Willie's back, and that will be big for the Steelers.
Steelers +1.5. Parker gets back in the swing of things. Pittsburgh wins 24-19.
BYES: NO, SD, SF, CAR
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
RECAP - WEEK EIGHT
This Week: 5-7-2 (51-59-5)
Linebusters: 1-4 (16-23-1)
Straight Picks (w/o line): 6-8 (63-52)
You know, this week felt a lot more successful as it was happening...but then two ties and a couple comebacks ended up hurting the final tally. Pittsburgh had the Giants, but shot themselves in the foot with turnovers. Indy was playing with the Titans, but the defense got tired and the Tennessee running game started to produce, leading the Titans to 17 points in the fourth quarter. My predicting woes continue.
West Goes East, West Goes Home
Oakland Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -7
O/U: 36
My Pick: Ravens -7. Baltimore wins 17-3.
Result: Ravens 29-10
The woes of teams from the West traveling east continue...Oakland couldn't do much of anything against the Baltimore D. How about young Joe Flacco? I thought Baltimore would win it with the rushing game, but Flacco stepped up and played very well. We'll see how consistently he can perform from here on out.
Tea, Crumpets, and a Whole Lot of Passing
San Diego Chargers @ New Orleans Saints (Wembley Stadium, London)
Line: Chargers -3
O/U: 46
My Pick: Chargers -3. San Diego gets it done across the pond in a shootout 34-24.
Result: Saints 37-32
The Saints really showed they were the better team, as with their backs against the wall they moved the ball with ease and put up a ton of points on the San Diego D. The Chargers continue to disappoint as they return home 0-2 after their long journey through Buffalo and London. Can San Diego pull it together? The AFC West is weak, and if Denver continues to stumble, the door remains open for a Chargers playoff berth.
Distance
Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -13
O/U: 39
My Pick: Jets -13. Favre has a big game and leads the Jets to a win 27-6.
Result: Jets 28-24
The Jets needed to crush the Chiefs to put some distance between how the two teams are perceived. Both have been beaten by the Raiders, and now the Johnson-less Chiefs, led by Tyler Thigpen, take the Jets to the brink and put up 24 points on what can now be seen as a questionable Jets D. With Miami winning games, the Jets will eventually fall to the bottom of the division, even with the golden arm of Brett Favre leading them.
I HATE MIAMI
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Bills -1.5
O/U: 42
Linebuster!
My Pick: Bills -1.5. Buffalo circles the wagons (what does that even mean?) 24-16.
Result: Dolphins 25-16
Stupid Miami. Buffalo didn't play its best game, especially on offense, and Miami took advantage. The Wildcat didn't work that well for them, but the long first down passes were killing the Bills. How can you keep letting them do that? Come on, Buffalo. Miami isn't that great against teams they should beat, but they've beaten the Bills and Pats, who are leading the division and are tied for the second best record in the AFC. So watch out for the Fins when it matters later in the season, as they could be a spoiler.
Now they have D?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -1.5
O/U: 40.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Bucs +1.5. Tampa really is that good. 27-23.
Result: Cowboys 13-9
Of course when I choose not to start Dallas as my fantasy defense they come up big. Tampa is a solid football team, but if they can't score more than 9 points they won't beat many teams. Dallas is still a solid team, but they desperately need Romo back. The Boys wouldn't have won that game had it turned into an offensive battle.
Westbrook. Nuff Said.
Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -9
O/U: 45.5
My Pick: Eagles -9. Philly comes out of the bye strong 34-20.
Result: Eagles 27-14
I thought the Eagles O would be more potent with the pass, but Brian Westbrook carried the offense and proved that he is one of the most valuable players in the league. Had the Falcons keyed on the run, McNabb would have been able to open up the passing game a bit. As it turned out, the Falcons were worried about McNabb, so Westbrook just did it all himself. With him in the game, Philly can beat anyone. That doesn't mean they will, though.
For Real?
St. Louis Rams @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -7
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Pats -7. New England will show up. 31-17.
Result: Pats 23-16
Are the Haslett-led Rams for real? Two wins in a row, and then they hang with the Patriots at Foxboro? Can a coaching change really change the entire complexion of a football team, without having to change any of the on-field personnel? We'll see as the season moves forward, but I wouldn't bet against Haslett getting 6 wins, which I believe is the incentive in his contract that would get him either the full-time job in St. Louis or a whole bunch of money.
Zona 0-3 in East, 4-0 everywhere else!
Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -4
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Panthers -4. The Panthers send Arizona back to the desert unhappy. 23-17.
Result: Panthers 27-23
Arizona is a solid football team, but they can't win in the eastern time zone. They'll likely make the playoffs, as their division is pretty terrible, but are they a super bowl team? The road to the super bowl will undoubtedly run through the NFC East, which will most likely mean a game on the east coast again!
What are the Redskins?
Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions
Line: Redskins -7.5
O/U: 42
Linebuster!
My Pick: Redskins -7.5. The Skins pile it on. Finally. 27-9.
Result: Redskins 25-17
Washington has beaten the Cowboys and Eagles on the road, but has lost to the Rams, stayed close with the Browns, and "barely" beaten the Lions. Detroit is so bad that 8 points is "barely". So what are the Skins? Where will they fall amongst the NFL's elite teams? We will have to wait and see, as this year's NFL is just too unpredictable to figure anything out.
Jags a Playoff Team?
Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jaguars -7
O/U: 42
My Pick: Browns +7. Jacksonville still wins 24-20.
Result: Browns 23-17
I called the Browns staying close, but I didn't think they'd win. Now the Jags are reeling. Will they be able to come back and make the playoffs? With the Titans playing so well, Jacksonville can only hope for a wild card spot, but the Bills or Pats will likely get one of them, and the other may be claimed by the Colts, assuming they decide to pull their heads out of their asses. So Jacksonville will have to start winning, or there may not be room for them in January.
Ok, Ok, I give up
New York Giants @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -2.5
O/U: 42.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Steelers -2.5. The Black and Gold stomps Big Blue 27-21.
Result: Giants 21-14
I held on calling the Giants overrated for as long as I could..they're still a little overrated by some, as I don't believe they are "the best" team in the league. But they're close. My issue with the G-men was what I perceived to be a very beat up, different D-line from last season. Without Osi and Strahan, I thought they'd have trouble. But they haven't. The Giants O-line is one of the best out there. New York is for real.
New Coach, Same Problems
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -5
O/U: 41
My Pick: 49ers -5. Sorry Seattle, but the turmoil continues. San Fran 30-17.
Result: Seahawks 34-13
This one really surprised me, but I guess that when Holmgren faces a must-win, he gets the most out of his players. I like what Singletary brings to the head coaching position, but he didn't have his team playing its best football, and they were crushed. Without consistency from either of these teams, Arizona's run to end the longest playoff drought in the NFL looks promising.
Three in a Row!
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -9.5
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Houston -9.5. The league's #5 offense (I know, right?) gets it done 27-13.
Result: Texans 35-6
My bad. I thought Fitzpatrick would get the Bengals in the endzone once, or I would have said 6 instead of 13. The Bengals O with Fitzpatrick is awfully predictable. Houston has won three in a row, but they are not an elite team. Their newfound confidence will go a long way for them, and I expect them to beat a few decent teams now that their run of 3 weak games in a row is over.
Undefeated?
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -4
O/U: 41
Linebuster!
My Pick: Colts +4. It's Indy's time to step up. They're desperate. 27-23.
Result: Titans 31-21
At 7-0, and with a win over the desperate Colts under their belt, the undefeated conversation will start to begin. Can the Titans pull it off? Do they have enough offense? The Colts are in trouble, and really need to get their s++t together if they have designs on being a playoff contender.
Linebusters: 1-4 (16-23-1)
Straight Picks (w/o line): 6-8 (63-52)
You know, this week felt a lot more successful as it was happening...but then two ties and a couple comebacks ended up hurting the final tally. Pittsburgh had the Giants, but shot themselves in the foot with turnovers. Indy was playing with the Titans, but the defense got tired and the Tennessee running game started to produce, leading the Titans to 17 points in the fourth quarter. My predicting woes continue.
West Goes East, West Goes Home
Oakland Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -7
O/U: 36
My Pick: Ravens -7. Baltimore wins 17-3.
Result: Ravens 29-10
The woes of teams from the West traveling east continue...Oakland couldn't do much of anything against the Baltimore D. How about young Joe Flacco? I thought Baltimore would win it with the rushing game, but Flacco stepped up and played very well. We'll see how consistently he can perform from here on out.
Tea, Crumpets, and a Whole Lot of Passing
San Diego Chargers @ New Orleans Saints (Wembley Stadium, London)
Line: Chargers -3
O/U: 46
My Pick: Chargers -3. San Diego gets it done across the pond in a shootout 34-24.
Result: Saints 37-32
The Saints really showed they were the better team, as with their backs against the wall they moved the ball with ease and put up a ton of points on the San Diego D. The Chargers continue to disappoint as they return home 0-2 after their long journey through Buffalo and London. Can San Diego pull it together? The AFC West is weak, and if Denver continues to stumble, the door remains open for a Chargers playoff berth.
Distance
Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -13
O/U: 39
My Pick: Jets -13. Favre has a big game and leads the Jets to a win 27-6.
Result: Jets 28-24
The Jets needed to crush the Chiefs to put some distance between how the two teams are perceived. Both have been beaten by the Raiders, and now the Johnson-less Chiefs, led by Tyler Thigpen, take the Jets to the brink and put up 24 points on what can now be seen as a questionable Jets D. With Miami winning games, the Jets will eventually fall to the bottom of the division, even with the golden arm of Brett Favre leading them.
I HATE MIAMI
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Bills -1.5
O/U: 42
Linebuster!
My Pick: Bills -1.5. Buffalo circles the wagons (what does that even mean?) 24-16.
Result: Dolphins 25-16
Stupid Miami. Buffalo didn't play its best game, especially on offense, and Miami took advantage. The Wildcat didn't work that well for them, but the long first down passes were killing the Bills. How can you keep letting them do that? Come on, Buffalo. Miami isn't that great against teams they should beat, but they've beaten the Bills and Pats, who are leading the division and are tied for the second best record in the AFC. So watch out for the Fins when it matters later in the season, as they could be a spoiler.
Now they have D?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -1.5
O/U: 40.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Bucs +1.5. Tampa really is that good. 27-23.
Result: Cowboys 13-9
Of course when I choose not to start Dallas as my fantasy defense they come up big. Tampa is a solid football team, but if they can't score more than 9 points they won't beat many teams. Dallas is still a solid team, but they desperately need Romo back. The Boys wouldn't have won that game had it turned into an offensive battle.
Westbrook. Nuff Said.
Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -9
O/U: 45.5
My Pick: Eagles -9. Philly comes out of the bye strong 34-20.
Result: Eagles 27-14
I thought the Eagles O would be more potent with the pass, but Brian Westbrook carried the offense and proved that he is one of the most valuable players in the league. Had the Falcons keyed on the run, McNabb would have been able to open up the passing game a bit. As it turned out, the Falcons were worried about McNabb, so Westbrook just did it all himself. With him in the game, Philly can beat anyone. That doesn't mean they will, though.
For Real?
St. Louis Rams @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -7
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Pats -7. New England will show up. 31-17.
Result: Pats 23-16
Are the Haslett-led Rams for real? Two wins in a row, and then they hang with the Patriots at Foxboro? Can a coaching change really change the entire complexion of a football team, without having to change any of the on-field personnel? We'll see as the season moves forward, but I wouldn't bet against Haslett getting 6 wins, which I believe is the incentive in his contract that would get him either the full-time job in St. Louis or a whole bunch of money.
Zona 0-3 in East, 4-0 everywhere else!
Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -4
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Panthers -4. The Panthers send Arizona back to the desert unhappy. 23-17.
Result: Panthers 27-23
Arizona is a solid football team, but they can't win in the eastern time zone. They'll likely make the playoffs, as their division is pretty terrible, but are they a super bowl team? The road to the super bowl will undoubtedly run through the NFC East, which will most likely mean a game on the east coast again!
What are the Redskins?
Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions
Line: Redskins -7.5
O/U: 42
Linebuster!
My Pick: Redskins -7.5. The Skins pile it on. Finally. 27-9.
Result: Redskins 25-17
Washington has beaten the Cowboys and Eagles on the road, but has lost to the Rams, stayed close with the Browns, and "barely" beaten the Lions. Detroit is so bad that 8 points is "barely". So what are the Skins? Where will they fall amongst the NFL's elite teams? We will have to wait and see, as this year's NFL is just too unpredictable to figure anything out.
Jags a Playoff Team?
Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jaguars -7
O/U: 42
My Pick: Browns +7. Jacksonville still wins 24-20.
Result: Browns 23-17
I called the Browns staying close, but I didn't think they'd win. Now the Jags are reeling. Will they be able to come back and make the playoffs? With the Titans playing so well, Jacksonville can only hope for a wild card spot, but the Bills or Pats will likely get one of them, and the other may be claimed by the Colts, assuming they decide to pull their heads out of their asses. So Jacksonville will have to start winning, or there may not be room for them in January.
Ok, Ok, I give up
New York Giants @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -2.5
O/U: 42.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Steelers -2.5. The Black and Gold stomps Big Blue 27-21.
Result: Giants 21-14
I held on calling the Giants overrated for as long as I could..they're still a little overrated by some, as I don't believe they are "the best" team in the league. But they're close. My issue with the G-men was what I perceived to be a very beat up, different D-line from last season. Without Osi and Strahan, I thought they'd have trouble. But they haven't. The Giants O-line is one of the best out there. New York is for real.
New Coach, Same Problems
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -5
O/U: 41
My Pick: 49ers -5. Sorry Seattle, but the turmoil continues. San Fran 30-17.
Result: Seahawks 34-13
This one really surprised me, but I guess that when Holmgren faces a must-win, he gets the most out of his players. I like what Singletary brings to the head coaching position, but he didn't have his team playing its best football, and they were crushed. Without consistency from either of these teams, Arizona's run to end the longest playoff drought in the NFL looks promising.
Three in a Row!
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -9.5
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Houston -9.5. The league's #5 offense (I know, right?) gets it done 27-13.
Result: Texans 35-6
My bad. I thought Fitzpatrick would get the Bengals in the endzone once, or I would have said 6 instead of 13. The Bengals O with Fitzpatrick is awfully predictable. Houston has won three in a row, but they are not an elite team. Their newfound confidence will go a long way for them, and I expect them to beat a few decent teams now that their run of 3 weak games in a row is over.
Undefeated?
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -4
O/U: 41
Linebuster!
My Pick: Colts +4. It's Indy's time to step up. They're desperate. 27-23.
Result: Titans 31-21
At 7-0, and with a win over the desperate Colts under their belt, the undefeated conversation will start to begin. Can the Titans pull it off? Do they have enough offense? The Colts are in trouble, and really need to get their s++t together if they have designs on being a playoff contender.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
PREVIEW - WEEK EIGHT
Oakland Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -7
O/U: 36
West Coast teams traveling eastward have been having problems all season long, and I don't expect it to change here. Baltimore's shut down D won't allow much, and Oakland will have a tough time stopping a Baltimore team that really likes to grind it out, especially at home. The only question is whether or not 7 points is too many. The Ravens don't score much, and Oakland has been keeping teams close lately. But with the trip East and the smash-mouth style of the Ravens, I think they'll get it done.
Ravens -7. Baltimore wins 17-3.
San Diego Chargers @ New Orleans Saints (Wembley Stadium, London)
Line: Chargers -3
O/U: 46
New Orleans is #1 in the league in pass yards per game, and the San Diego D is the worst in the NFL at stopping the pass. San Diego also has more time zones to deal with during their trip, though both teams got to London early in the week, so it shouldn't be an issue. San Diego has been playing much better lately, and I hate to go against them in a game they desperately need. New Orleans' D isn't all that special either, and with Reggie Bush out and no real threat of a running game, the Chargers will be able to key on the pass, and may actually stop it.
Chargers -3. San Diego gets it done across the pond in a shootout 34-24.
Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -13
O/U: 39
The Jets played awful last week, but Kansas City has been awful on the road. Without LJ and with no real QB (top 2 QBs on IR, out for season...ouch!), the Chiefs are going nowhere. 13 is a lot, but can the Chiefs score at all with the personnel they have on the field? No. No they cannot.
Jets -13. Favre has a big game and leads the Jets to a win 27-6.
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Bills -1.5
O/U: 42
Linebuster!
Miami proved last week that they have been overrated. Any good defense will be ready for Miami's wildcat plays, and I just don't think they'll beat the Bills D without some trickeration. Edwards continues to grow into a very solid passer, and I think he'll have another consistently good game at Miami. It's the Bills' first foray into the division, and their first chance to prove that it's their division to lose.
Bills -1.5. Buffalo circles the wagons (what does that even mean?) 24-16.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -1.5
O/U: 40.5
Linebuster!
The Dallas D has been terrible, Romo is still out, and everything is falling apart for the evil empire. Tampa is a hell of a football team, and without continuity on offense, the Cowboys will struggle to get anything moving on O. Tampa will be able to move the ball against a Dallas D that allowed WAY too many points to St. Louis last week. This is a very plausible upset pick.
Bucs +1.5. Tampa really is that good. 27-23.
Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -9
O/U: 45.5
Brian Westbrook will likely be back for this game, which may allow the Eagles' Offense to get back in sync. Matt Ryan has been great, but the Eagles are one of the league's premier defenses, and he is likely to face a lot of pressure. The Bears' mistake against Atlanta was not generating enough of a pass rush. The Eagles won't make that same mistake. Michael Turner will be limited by the Eagles, and Ryan won't beat them. Now that teams have to gear up for Westbrook, a lot more passing lanes should open up, and the Eagles' O will be able to put up big numbers. 9 is a lot, especially against a team like Atlanta, who I respect a great deal this year. But the Eagles can be VERY good when they want to be. I think they want to be.
Eagles -9. Philly comes out of the bye strong 34-20.
St. Louis Rams @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -7
O/U: 43.5
The Rams have been beating good teams, but I think the Pats at home will prove to be too much for them. The St. Louis pass defense isn't much better than Denver's, and we saw what Cassel did to them. This game should be a blowout, but with this year's Pats, you never know.
Pats -7. New England will show up. 31-17.
Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -4
O/U: 43.5
No West coast teams have come East and won...and Arizona has accounted for two of the losses already. I'd like to go with the Cards, but they don't travel well. Carolina has a great pass D (#2 in NFL) which might give the league's #2 passing offense some problems, and Arizona hasn't been running the ball very well. Of course, there is the whole "don't go against teams coming off the bye week" thing, but I prefer to go with the travel stat.
Panthers -4. The Panthers send Arizona back to the desert unhappy. 23-17.
Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions
Line: Redskins -7.5
O/U: 42
Linebuster!
Normally I would like this game, as the Redskins could use a big win, and the Lions are terrible. The problem is that the Redskins needed a big win last week, and the Browns are terrible, yet they only won by 3. And since they won, they may not be as motivated to crush the Lions. This game comes down to Dan Orlovsky against the Redskins D. If he can get the Lions into the endzone a couple times, they might beat the spread. Who am I kidding? The Redskins D is solid. And if ever there was a team against whom the Skins could score some points, it's the Lions.
Redskins -7.5. The Skins pile it on. Finally. 27-9.
Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jaguars -7
O/U: 42
Coming off a bye, the Jaguars may have enough in the tank to blow by the Browns. But Cleveland has started to play much better, and Jacksonville really hasn't pulled away from anyone yet this season. They just don't score enough points to blow anyone out.
Browns +7. Jacksonville still wins 24-20.
New York Giants @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -2.5
O/U: 42.5
Linebuster!
I still don't think the Giants are as good as everyone thinks. The Steelers have taken over the title of league's best D from the Ravens, and as long as Big Ben doesn't shoot himself in the foot, the offense should move the ball against the G-men. The game is in Steeltown, too.
Steelers -2.5. The Black and Gold stomps Big Blue 27-21.
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -5
O/U: 41
This game is another tough one to call, because with a new head coach the 49ers could implode, or like the Rams, could get better. Seattle is still without Hasslebeck, which means they won't score too many points. San Fran has put up decent numbers, even in losses, against much better defenses than Seattle's.
49ers -5. Sorry Seattle, but the turmoil continues. San Fran 30-17.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -9.5
O/U: 44.5
Wow. The Texans have won 2 in a row, and are favored big again! Talk about an easy stretch on the schedule. Last week I was right to think the winless Lions would at least stay competitive with Houston. Without Palmer again, though, I don't think the Bengals can keep it competitive. They'll get 2 field goals, and a late touchdown in the first half during the two minute drill, which is the only time in the game when Fitzpatrick is effective.
Houston -9.5. The league's #5 offense (I know, right?) gets it done 27-13.
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -4
O/U: 41
Linebuster!
Will the Colts show up? We saw what can happen when they decide to play when they ran over the Ravens a few weeks ago. If they play their best, they can hand the Titans their first loss of the season. The Ravens had a good D, and the Colts destroyed it. Will they do the same against Tennessee? This is a must-win for Indy, and they should be prepared for it, as it is a conference game against the best team in the AFC. You don't overlook games like that. Keep in mind that the Ravens nearly beat the Titans a few weeks back, and the Colts crushed the Ravens. Though that usually has no bearing, in this case it shows that the Titans are beatable, and that the Colts do have a chance.
Colts +4. It's Indy's time to step up. They're desperate. 27-23.
Byes: CHI, GB, DEN, MIN
Line: Ravens -7
O/U: 36
West Coast teams traveling eastward have been having problems all season long, and I don't expect it to change here. Baltimore's shut down D won't allow much, and Oakland will have a tough time stopping a Baltimore team that really likes to grind it out, especially at home. The only question is whether or not 7 points is too many. The Ravens don't score much, and Oakland has been keeping teams close lately. But with the trip East and the smash-mouth style of the Ravens, I think they'll get it done.
Ravens -7. Baltimore wins 17-3.
San Diego Chargers @ New Orleans Saints (Wembley Stadium, London)
Line: Chargers -3
O/U: 46
New Orleans is #1 in the league in pass yards per game, and the San Diego D is the worst in the NFL at stopping the pass. San Diego also has more time zones to deal with during their trip, though both teams got to London early in the week, so it shouldn't be an issue. San Diego has been playing much better lately, and I hate to go against them in a game they desperately need. New Orleans' D isn't all that special either, and with Reggie Bush out and no real threat of a running game, the Chargers will be able to key on the pass, and may actually stop it.
Chargers -3. San Diego gets it done across the pond in a shootout 34-24.
Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -13
O/U: 39
The Jets played awful last week, but Kansas City has been awful on the road. Without LJ and with no real QB (top 2 QBs on IR, out for season...ouch!), the Chiefs are going nowhere. 13 is a lot, but can the Chiefs score at all with the personnel they have on the field? No. No they cannot.
Jets -13. Favre has a big game and leads the Jets to a win 27-6.
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Bills -1.5
O/U: 42
Linebuster!
Miami proved last week that they have been overrated. Any good defense will be ready for Miami's wildcat plays, and I just don't think they'll beat the Bills D without some trickeration. Edwards continues to grow into a very solid passer, and I think he'll have another consistently good game at Miami. It's the Bills' first foray into the division, and their first chance to prove that it's their division to lose.
Bills -1.5. Buffalo circles the wagons (what does that even mean?) 24-16.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -1.5
O/U: 40.5
Linebuster!
The Dallas D has been terrible, Romo is still out, and everything is falling apart for the evil empire. Tampa is a hell of a football team, and without continuity on offense, the Cowboys will struggle to get anything moving on O. Tampa will be able to move the ball against a Dallas D that allowed WAY too many points to St. Louis last week. This is a very plausible upset pick.
Bucs +1.5. Tampa really is that good. 27-23.
Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -9
O/U: 45.5
Brian Westbrook will likely be back for this game, which may allow the Eagles' Offense to get back in sync. Matt Ryan has been great, but the Eagles are one of the league's premier defenses, and he is likely to face a lot of pressure. The Bears' mistake against Atlanta was not generating enough of a pass rush. The Eagles won't make that same mistake. Michael Turner will be limited by the Eagles, and Ryan won't beat them. Now that teams have to gear up for Westbrook, a lot more passing lanes should open up, and the Eagles' O will be able to put up big numbers. 9 is a lot, especially against a team like Atlanta, who I respect a great deal this year. But the Eagles can be VERY good when they want to be. I think they want to be.
Eagles -9. Philly comes out of the bye strong 34-20.
St. Louis Rams @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -7
O/U: 43.5
The Rams have been beating good teams, but I think the Pats at home will prove to be too much for them. The St. Louis pass defense isn't much better than Denver's, and we saw what Cassel did to them. This game should be a blowout, but with this year's Pats, you never know.
Pats -7. New England will show up. 31-17.
Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -4
O/U: 43.5
No West coast teams have come East and won...and Arizona has accounted for two of the losses already. I'd like to go with the Cards, but they don't travel well. Carolina has a great pass D (#2 in NFL) which might give the league's #2 passing offense some problems, and Arizona hasn't been running the ball very well. Of course, there is the whole "don't go against teams coming off the bye week" thing, but I prefer to go with the travel stat.
Panthers -4. The Panthers send Arizona back to the desert unhappy. 23-17.
Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions
Line: Redskins -7.5
O/U: 42
Linebuster!
Normally I would like this game, as the Redskins could use a big win, and the Lions are terrible. The problem is that the Redskins needed a big win last week, and the Browns are terrible, yet they only won by 3. And since they won, they may not be as motivated to crush the Lions. This game comes down to Dan Orlovsky against the Redskins D. If he can get the Lions into the endzone a couple times, they might beat the spread. Who am I kidding? The Redskins D is solid. And if ever there was a team against whom the Skins could score some points, it's the Lions.
Redskins -7.5. The Skins pile it on. Finally. 27-9.
Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jaguars -7
O/U: 42
Coming off a bye, the Jaguars may have enough in the tank to blow by the Browns. But Cleveland has started to play much better, and Jacksonville really hasn't pulled away from anyone yet this season. They just don't score enough points to blow anyone out.
Browns +7. Jacksonville still wins 24-20.
New York Giants @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -2.5
O/U: 42.5
Linebuster!
I still don't think the Giants are as good as everyone thinks. The Steelers have taken over the title of league's best D from the Ravens, and as long as Big Ben doesn't shoot himself in the foot, the offense should move the ball against the G-men. The game is in Steeltown, too.
Steelers -2.5. The Black and Gold stomps Big Blue 27-21.
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -5
O/U: 41
This game is another tough one to call, because with a new head coach the 49ers could implode, or like the Rams, could get better. Seattle is still without Hasslebeck, which means they won't score too many points. San Fran has put up decent numbers, even in losses, against much better defenses than Seattle's.
49ers -5. Sorry Seattle, but the turmoil continues. San Fran 30-17.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -9.5
O/U: 44.5
Wow. The Texans have won 2 in a row, and are favored big again! Talk about an easy stretch on the schedule. Last week I was right to think the winless Lions would at least stay competitive with Houston. Without Palmer again, though, I don't think the Bengals can keep it competitive. They'll get 2 field goals, and a late touchdown in the first half during the two minute drill, which is the only time in the game when Fitzpatrick is effective.
Houston -9.5. The league's #5 offense (I know, right?) gets it done 27-13.
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -4
O/U: 41
Linebuster!
Will the Colts show up? We saw what can happen when they decide to play when they ran over the Ravens a few weeks ago. If they play their best, they can hand the Titans their first loss of the season. The Ravens had a good D, and the Colts destroyed it. Will they do the same against Tennessee? This is a must-win for Indy, and they should be prepared for it, as it is a conference game against the best team in the AFC. You don't overlook games like that. Keep in mind that the Ravens nearly beat the Titans a few weeks back, and the Colts crushed the Ravens. Though that usually has no bearing, in this case it shows that the Titans are beatable, and that the Colts do have a chance.
Colts +4. It's Indy's time to step up. They're desperate. 27-23.
Byes: CHI, GB, DEN, MIN
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
RECAP - WEEK SEVEN
This Week: 5-9 (46-52-3)
Linebusters: 2-3 (15-19-1)
Straight Picks (w/o line): 8-6 (57-44)
Why does Trigger apparently suck at this? Allow me to explain...This season has more question marks than any season I have ever attempted to predict. Last year, the Broncos were the real tough one, because you never knew which Broncos team would show up. They could beat almost anyone, but could also lose to anyone. This season, more than half of the teams in the NFL are like last year's Broncos. Which team will show up when Miami, New England, the Jets, Indy, Jacksonville, Cleveland, San Diego, Denver, Oakland, Washington, Dallas, Philly, Chicago, Minnesota, Green Bay, New Orleans, Carolina, Arizona, and the Rams play? That's 19 of 32 teams I have just named. You can't argue that any of them have played consistently this season. Each of these teams has either won games or kept them close against good teams, and/or has lost to terrible teams. My job becomes predicting which team will show up, rather than which team is better. That is much harder, and requires luck. I have none.
Proven
Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Titans -8
O/U: 35
Linebuster!
My Pick: Titans -8. Tennessee wins big 31-10.
Result: Titans 34-10
I know it's just the Chiefs, but the ability to beat a team that you are supposed to beat is underrated. As far as I'm concerned, this proves that the Titans are for real. The only question is whether or not they can put up enough points to beat other solid teams in the AFC.
BAM!
San Diego Chargers @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Pk
O/U: 45
My Pick: Bills Pk. Buffalo's defense shows up, and helps them win 23-17.
Result: Bills 23-14
That's two in a row that I was within 3 points on the final score prediction...I have to take small victories, as I have most of the other games wrong this week. The Bills once again proved that they belong on the field with other good teams, and thankfully showed that the Arizona game was an anomaly. San Diego may have been looking ahead to the London game. I'm sure they'll end up in the playoffs, especially if Denver remains inconsistent.
Why must I do these things?
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Steelers -9.5
O/U: 35.5
My Pick: Bengals +9.5. Pittsburgh still wins 17-10.
Result: Steelers 38-10
I had this game called the other way, but changed my mind because it was such a large spread. Of course, with Fitzpatrick at QB, no spread is too large, and I should have realized that. Has anyone else noticed that Cincy's 2 TD drives in the last 2 weeks have been the last possession before halftime? Apparently Fitzpatrick sucks unless he's in the two minute drill. Strange. Somebody at Cincy needs to see that and put some scheme into place to make the QB think like it's always the two minute drill.
See? They're not that good...
Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -3
O/U: 36.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Ravens +3. Baltimore Bakes the Fish 20-14.
Result: Ravens 27-13
I knew Miami was overrated, and that the Baltimore D would give them problems. Miami will be tougher to pick in upcoming weeks, as they could be a problem for teams without a dominating D.
America's Choke Artists
Dallas Cowboys @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Cowboys -7
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Cowboys -7. I can't go against Big D coming off a loss. They win 34-13.
Result: Rams 34-14
That wasn't just a loss. That was a super bowl contender being destroyed in all facets of a football game by a team that recently got its first win. Dallas has some examining to do. No, Brad Johnson wasn't great, but if a team has the tools and the heart to go all the way, they should step up to the plate. That whole game can't be blamed on Johnson. Now I worry about picking them in the future. When will they snap out of it? And how good are the Rams under Haslett? Back to back wins over NFC East teams have me wondering about their abilities. Or did they just catch 2 good teams napping in a row?
I Quit
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -3
O/U: 38
Linebuster!
My Pick: Vikings +3. Minnesota just needs the win too badly. They'll get it 17-13.
Result: Bears 48-41
When the Bears and Vikings combine for 89 points, it's time to re-examine things. The only way I can look at this game is as an anomaly. There is little chance either of these teams will score that many points again this year, and there is little chance that either of these defenses will allow that many points again this year.
Looking Ahead?
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -3
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Saints +3. New Orleans gets it done 27-24.
Result: Panthers 30-7
I hope that this game was a result of the Saints looking ahead to London. Otherwise, I'll have to reconsider my view of the Panthers. My current thought is that they are good, not great, and that their offense will be inconsistent and have trouble against good D, though their D will usually be solid. New Orleans does not have good D. So I may still be right on them. The Saints need to step up if they see a playoff spot in their future...
Thank God For Safeties
San Francisco 49ers @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -10.5
O/U: 46
My Pick: Giants -10.5. New York needs this one. 34-20.
Result: Giants 29-17
Like in poker, luck often plays a part in beating the line. I have been crushed by plenty of late points already (see Tampa v. Seattle), so the safety against the 49ers that allowed the Giants to barely beat the spread was just a little retribution. The Giants will be ok, but will they be elite? Time will tell. I will say that it is possible...but something in my gut still says they aren't quite as good as people think.
Comeback!
Detroit Lions @ Houston Texans
Line: Houston -9
O/U: 46.5
My Pick: Lions +9. Houston still wins at home 23-17.
Result: Texans 28-21
When Houston jumped out to their huge lead early, I was worried. But those resilient Lions (yes, that's a joke) came back to beat the spread. Will the Lions win? Better question...Who will win first, the Lions or the Bengals? You might even throw in the Chiefs under "win again". Those three are really bad.
Bad Company
New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Jets -3
O/U: 41
Linebuster!
My Pick: Jets -3. New York in a blow out 31-13.
Result: Raiders 16-13 (ot)
What? The who beat the who led by who? Ouch. Favre was not sharp. The Jets O was not good. They'll turn it around next game, but you do not want to be placed into the category "teams beaten by the Raiders." That group is now the Jets and Chiefs.
Come ON.
Cleveland Browns @ Washington Redskins
Line: Redskins -7
O/U: 42
My Pick: Skins -7. Washington Needs This One 29-16.
Result: Skins 14-11
A win's a win. But still. If Washington wants to be elite, they cannot lose to the Rams and keep it close against the Browns. 14 points against Cleveland? That offense needs to improve markedly if the Redskins even want to make the playoffs. And yes, I know damn well that they're 5-2.
Inconsistency is always in the last place you look!
Indianapolis Colts @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Colts -2
O/U: 47
Linebuster!
My Pick: Colts -2. Indy wins 27-17.
Result: Packers 34-14
I really thought the Colts were back. After a big game against a great D, they had to beat the Packers. I guess not. Ryan Grant became non-useless all of a sudden, and the Colts are back on the wrong track. Will they snap out of it? We'll have to watch week by week.
Apathy
Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Bucs -10.5
O/U: 38
My Pick: Bucs -10.5. It's lot of points to give, but I like Garcia better than Griese. Bucs 27-10.
Result: Bucs 20-10
Apathy surrounded this game, and not just because the ALCS was in town. The Bucs D was great, and the offense knew it. After they got their 20-3 lead they phoned it in. Their goal was to run clock and take the win, which I cannot blame them for. But then Tampa allowed the late TD to the Seahawks, and allowed Seattle to beat the spread by 1/2 a point. Awful.
Huh?
Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -3
O/U: 48
My Pick: Broncos +3. I think Denver's offense will show up. They'll win 31-23.
Result: Pats 41-7
Holy Crap! As a Bills fan, I'm a bit worried that the Pats are back. Not back all the way of course, but selectively back. From here on out, take the Pats whenever they play one of the league's worst pass defenses, as Cassel can handle himself when not under any pressure. How good are they? Still not spectacular. Denver is very inconsistent, and has no D. Without Maroney, it'll be tough to keep better defenses from keying on the passing game. The Bills, hopefully, will be ok.
Linebusters: 2-3 (15-19-1)
Straight Picks (w/o line): 8-6 (57-44)
Why does Trigger apparently suck at this? Allow me to explain...This season has more question marks than any season I have ever attempted to predict. Last year, the Broncos were the real tough one, because you never knew which Broncos team would show up. They could beat almost anyone, but could also lose to anyone. This season, more than half of the teams in the NFL are like last year's Broncos. Which team will show up when Miami, New England, the Jets, Indy, Jacksonville, Cleveland, San Diego, Denver, Oakland, Washington, Dallas, Philly, Chicago, Minnesota, Green Bay, New Orleans, Carolina, Arizona, and the Rams play? That's 19 of 32 teams I have just named. You can't argue that any of them have played consistently this season. Each of these teams has either won games or kept them close against good teams, and/or has lost to terrible teams. My job becomes predicting which team will show up, rather than which team is better. That is much harder, and requires luck. I have none.
Proven
Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Titans -8
O/U: 35
Linebuster!
My Pick: Titans -8. Tennessee wins big 31-10.
Result: Titans 34-10
I know it's just the Chiefs, but the ability to beat a team that you are supposed to beat is underrated. As far as I'm concerned, this proves that the Titans are for real. The only question is whether or not they can put up enough points to beat other solid teams in the AFC.
BAM!
San Diego Chargers @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Pk
O/U: 45
My Pick: Bills Pk. Buffalo's defense shows up, and helps them win 23-17.
Result: Bills 23-14
That's two in a row that I was within 3 points on the final score prediction...I have to take small victories, as I have most of the other games wrong this week. The Bills once again proved that they belong on the field with other good teams, and thankfully showed that the Arizona game was an anomaly. San Diego may have been looking ahead to the London game. I'm sure they'll end up in the playoffs, especially if Denver remains inconsistent.
Why must I do these things?
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Steelers -9.5
O/U: 35.5
My Pick: Bengals +9.5. Pittsburgh still wins 17-10.
Result: Steelers 38-10
I had this game called the other way, but changed my mind because it was such a large spread. Of course, with Fitzpatrick at QB, no spread is too large, and I should have realized that. Has anyone else noticed that Cincy's 2 TD drives in the last 2 weeks have been the last possession before halftime? Apparently Fitzpatrick sucks unless he's in the two minute drill. Strange. Somebody at Cincy needs to see that and put some scheme into place to make the QB think like it's always the two minute drill.
See? They're not that good...
Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -3
O/U: 36.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Ravens +3. Baltimore Bakes the Fish 20-14.
Result: Ravens 27-13
I knew Miami was overrated, and that the Baltimore D would give them problems. Miami will be tougher to pick in upcoming weeks, as they could be a problem for teams without a dominating D.
America's Choke Artists
Dallas Cowboys @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Cowboys -7
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Cowboys -7. I can't go against Big D coming off a loss. They win 34-13.
Result: Rams 34-14
That wasn't just a loss. That was a super bowl contender being destroyed in all facets of a football game by a team that recently got its first win. Dallas has some examining to do. No, Brad Johnson wasn't great, but if a team has the tools and the heart to go all the way, they should step up to the plate. That whole game can't be blamed on Johnson. Now I worry about picking them in the future. When will they snap out of it? And how good are the Rams under Haslett? Back to back wins over NFC East teams have me wondering about their abilities. Or did they just catch 2 good teams napping in a row?
I Quit
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -3
O/U: 38
Linebuster!
My Pick: Vikings +3. Minnesota just needs the win too badly. They'll get it 17-13.
Result: Bears 48-41
When the Bears and Vikings combine for 89 points, it's time to re-examine things. The only way I can look at this game is as an anomaly. There is little chance either of these teams will score that many points again this year, and there is little chance that either of these defenses will allow that many points again this year.
Looking Ahead?
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -3
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Saints +3. New Orleans gets it done 27-24.
Result: Panthers 30-7
I hope that this game was a result of the Saints looking ahead to London. Otherwise, I'll have to reconsider my view of the Panthers. My current thought is that they are good, not great, and that their offense will be inconsistent and have trouble against good D, though their D will usually be solid. New Orleans does not have good D. So I may still be right on them. The Saints need to step up if they see a playoff spot in their future...
Thank God For Safeties
San Francisco 49ers @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -10.5
O/U: 46
My Pick: Giants -10.5. New York needs this one. 34-20.
Result: Giants 29-17
Like in poker, luck often plays a part in beating the line. I have been crushed by plenty of late points already (see Tampa v. Seattle), so the safety against the 49ers that allowed the Giants to barely beat the spread was just a little retribution. The Giants will be ok, but will they be elite? Time will tell. I will say that it is possible...but something in my gut still says they aren't quite as good as people think.
Comeback!
Detroit Lions @ Houston Texans
Line: Houston -9
O/U: 46.5
My Pick: Lions +9. Houston still wins at home 23-17.
Result: Texans 28-21
When Houston jumped out to their huge lead early, I was worried. But those resilient Lions (yes, that's a joke) came back to beat the spread. Will the Lions win? Better question...Who will win first, the Lions or the Bengals? You might even throw in the Chiefs under "win again". Those three are really bad.
Bad Company
New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Jets -3
O/U: 41
Linebuster!
My Pick: Jets -3. New York in a blow out 31-13.
Result: Raiders 16-13 (ot)
What? The who beat the who led by who? Ouch. Favre was not sharp. The Jets O was not good. They'll turn it around next game, but you do not want to be placed into the category "teams beaten by the Raiders." That group is now the Jets and Chiefs.
Come ON.
Cleveland Browns @ Washington Redskins
Line: Redskins -7
O/U: 42
My Pick: Skins -7. Washington Needs This One 29-16.
Result: Skins 14-11
A win's a win. But still. If Washington wants to be elite, they cannot lose to the Rams and keep it close against the Browns. 14 points against Cleveland? That offense needs to improve markedly if the Redskins even want to make the playoffs. And yes, I know damn well that they're 5-2.
Inconsistency is always in the last place you look!
Indianapolis Colts @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Colts -2
O/U: 47
Linebuster!
My Pick: Colts -2. Indy wins 27-17.
Result: Packers 34-14
I really thought the Colts were back. After a big game against a great D, they had to beat the Packers. I guess not. Ryan Grant became non-useless all of a sudden, and the Colts are back on the wrong track. Will they snap out of it? We'll have to watch week by week.
Apathy
Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Bucs -10.5
O/U: 38
My Pick: Bucs -10.5. It's lot of points to give, but I like Garcia better than Griese. Bucs 27-10.
Result: Bucs 20-10
Apathy surrounded this game, and not just because the ALCS was in town. The Bucs D was great, and the offense knew it. After they got their 20-3 lead they phoned it in. Their goal was to run clock and take the win, which I cannot blame them for. But then Tampa allowed the late TD to the Seahawks, and allowed Seattle to beat the spread by 1/2 a point. Awful.
Huh?
Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -3
O/U: 48
My Pick: Broncos +3. I think Denver's offense will show up. They'll win 31-23.
Result: Pats 41-7
Holy Crap! As a Bills fan, I'm a bit worried that the Pats are back. Not back all the way of course, but selectively back. From here on out, take the Pats whenever they play one of the league's worst pass defenses, as Cassel can handle himself when not under any pressure. How good are they? Still not spectacular. Denver is very inconsistent, and has no D. Without Maroney, it'll be tough to keep better defenses from keying on the passing game. The Bills, hopefully, will be ok.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
PREVIEW - WEEK SEVEN
Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Titans -8
O/U: 35
Linebuster!
This game could be a trap for Tennessee. Cleveland was the first team to beat the Giants, and they're pretty bad. KC beat Denver at home, so we know they play better at Arrowhead. The only issue with that line of reasoning is that Larry Johnson was in the news for criminal actions last week, and Tony Gonzalez isn't thrilled that he's still in KC. This is a fractured team. The Titans are very good, and come off the bye week refreshed. Tennessee is a very physical team, unlike the Broncos team that the Chiefs beat. This should be a rout.
Titans -8. Tennessee wins big 31-10.
San Diego Chargers @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Pk
O/U: 45
Buffalo comes off the bye week needing to redeem themselves for being blown out in the desert. San Diego looked convincing against the Pats, but that game was played in San Diego. The question is whether or not the Bills' defense can get it done...they looked pretty bad against the Cards. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt.
Bills Pk. Buffalo's defense shows up, and helps them win 23-17.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Steelers -9.5
O/U: 35.5
This is a tough call, because without much of a rushing attack, Pittsburgh may not score that many points. Of course, without Carson Palmer, Cincy may not score any against a very good Steeler D. But Cincy has stayed in games against some good teams, and 9 1/2 is a lot to cover.
Bengals +9.5. Pittsburgh still wins 17-10.
Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -3
O/U: 36.5
Linebuster!
Miami is now being highly overrated for a couple of good wins. Baltimore's defense is too good to be tricked by Miami's offense, and I think that Flacco will redeem himself, at least a little bit, after being unable to move the ball at all against the Colts.
Ravens +3. Baltimore Bakes the Fish 20-14.
Dallas Cowboys @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Cowboys -7
O/U: 43.5
Dallas hasn't looked good against lesser teams (Cincy held their own...) and the Rams seem a bit better under Jim Haslett. If Romo doesn't play, Brad Johnson is a pretty capable backup. He's been around for a long time, and if the Cowboy O-Line protects him like they do Romo, he'll do just fine.
Cowboys -7. I can't go against Big D coming off a loss. They win 34-13.
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -3
O/U: 38
Linebuster!
This is actually a very big game for the NFC North, as we may find out which team will be able to contend with the Packers down the stretch. Minnesota was supposed to be the contender, but needs to prove that they belong in that role. Chicago suffered a tough loss last week in Atlanta, but will they be able to muster any offense against a tough Minnesota D? I'd bet the under in this one!
Vikings +3. Minnesota just needs the win too badly. They'll get it 17-13.
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -3
O/U: 44.5
The Panthers got housed by Tampa, and will be looking to prove that they are a contender in the NFC South. The Saints are playing well right now, and would also like to make a statement to the division. After the way the Saints D stepped up last week, though, I find it tough to go against them. As long as the offense doesn't get shut down, I think they'll make the statement they need.
Saints +3. New Orleans gets it done 27-24.
San Francisco 49ers @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -10.5
O/U: 46
Can the Giants blow it again? Probably not. They'll want a big win to prove that last week was a fluke. Not to mention that it's tough to travel all the way across the country and put up a fight.
Giants -10.5. New York needs this one. 34-20.
Detroit Lions @ Houston Texans
Line: Houston -9
O/U: 46.5
Detroit enters this game knowing that they can finally get a win. Of course, Houston isn't going to win too many games this year either, and needs to take advantage of its opportunities. Not to mention I don't have a lot of confidence in Dan Orlovsky. But I think it'll at least be close.
Lions +9. Houston still wins at home 23-17.
New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Jets -3
O/U: 41
Linebuster!
Yeah, it's tough to travel across the country and win. But you have Brett Favre. The lowly Raiders look even worse under Tom Cable. The Jets need a win and a confidence boost, and Oakland is as good a place as any to get it.
Jets -3. New York in a blow out 31-13.
Cleveland Browns @ Washington Redskins
Line: Redskins -7
O/U: 42
These are always tough games to call. On one hand, you have a team that desperately needs redemption after a terrible loss last week. On the other, you have a team with renewed confidence after beating a very good team last week. I still don't think the Browns are very good, though, and I think the Redskins will approach this game with a lot of intensity.
Skins -7. Washington Needs This One 29-16.
Indianapolis Colts @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Colts -2
O/U: 47
Linebuster!
I'm ready to say that the Colts are back. Harrison is playing better, and Peyton and the O put up 31 on a solid Ravens D last week. The Packers are an OK team, but are having some issues. I don't think they'll keep up with the Colts, even at Lambeau.
Colts -2. Indy wins 27-17.
Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Bucs -10.5
O/U: 38
Tampa proved themselves last week against the Panthers. Unless they have a major letdown, they should coast right by the Seahawks, especially at home.
Bucs -10.5. It's lot of points to give, but I like Garcia better than Griese. Bucs 27-10.
Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -3
O/U: 48
The Pats were crushed by the Chargers. Will they respond like they did after falling to the Fins? The Pats' D is still a solid group, and can keep Cutler under control, as the Broncos O has fallen off since the first few weeks of the season. Cassel needs to play well, and against a poor Broncos D, he may have that chance. I just worry that he isn't ready to put up the big numbers he'll need to put up if the Broncos offense shows up.
Broncos +3. I think Denver's offense will show up. They'll win 31-23.
Line: Titans -8
O/U: 35
Linebuster!
This game could be a trap for Tennessee. Cleveland was the first team to beat the Giants, and they're pretty bad. KC beat Denver at home, so we know they play better at Arrowhead. The only issue with that line of reasoning is that Larry Johnson was in the news for criminal actions last week, and Tony Gonzalez isn't thrilled that he's still in KC. This is a fractured team. The Titans are very good, and come off the bye week refreshed. Tennessee is a very physical team, unlike the Broncos team that the Chiefs beat. This should be a rout.
Titans -8. Tennessee wins big 31-10.
San Diego Chargers @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Pk
O/U: 45
Buffalo comes off the bye week needing to redeem themselves for being blown out in the desert. San Diego looked convincing against the Pats, but that game was played in San Diego. The question is whether or not the Bills' defense can get it done...they looked pretty bad against the Cards. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt.
Bills Pk. Buffalo's defense shows up, and helps them win 23-17.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Steelers -9.5
O/U: 35.5
This is a tough call, because without much of a rushing attack, Pittsburgh may not score that many points. Of course, without Carson Palmer, Cincy may not score any against a very good Steeler D. But Cincy has stayed in games against some good teams, and 9 1/2 is a lot to cover.
Bengals +9.5. Pittsburgh still wins 17-10.
Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -3
O/U: 36.5
Linebuster!
Miami is now being highly overrated for a couple of good wins. Baltimore's defense is too good to be tricked by Miami's offense, and I think that Flacco will redeem himself, at least a little bit, after being unable to move the ball at all against the Colts.
Ravens +3. Baltimore Bakes the Fish 20-14.
Dallas Cowboys @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Cowboys -7
O/U: 43.5
Dallas hasn't looked good against lesser teams (Cincy held their own...) and the Rams seem a bit better under Jim Haslett. If Romo doesn't play, Brad Johnson is a pretty capable backup. He's been around for a long time, and if the Cowboy O-Line protects him like they do Romo, he'll do just fine.
Cowboys -7. I can't go against Big D coming off a loss. They win 34-13.
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -3
O/U: 38
Linebuster!
This is actually a very big game for the NFC North, as we may find out which team will be able to contend with the Packers down the stretch. Minnesota was supposed to be the contender, but needs to prove that they belong in that role. Chicago suffered a tough loss last week in Atlanta, but will they be able to muster any offense against a tough Minnesota D? I'd bet the under in this one!
Vikings +3. Minnesota just needs the win too badly. They'll get it 17-13.
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -3
O/U: 44.5
The Panthers got housed by Tampa, and will be looking to prove that they are a contender in the NFC South. The Saints are playing well right now, and would also like to make a statement to the division. After the way the Saints D stepped up last week, though, I find it tough to go against them. As long as the offense doesn't get shut down, I think they'll make the statement they need.
Saints +3. New Orleans gets it done 27-24.
San Francisco 49ers @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -10.5
O/U: 46
Can the Giants blow it again? Probably not. They'll want a big win to prove that last week was a fluke. Not to mention that it's tough to travel all the way across the country and put up a fight.
Giants -10.5. New York needs this one. 34-20.
Detroit Lions @ Houston Texans
Line: Houston -9
O/U: 46.5
Detroit enters this game knowing that they can finally get a win. Of course, Houston isn't going to win too many games this year either, and needs to take advantage of its opportunities. Not to mention I don't have a lot of confidence in Dan Orlovsky. But I think it'll at least be close.
Lions +9. Houston still wins at home 23-17.
New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Jets -3
O/U: 41
Linebuster!
Yeah, it's tough to travel across the country and win. But you have Brett Favre. The lowly Raiders look even worse under Tom Cable. The Jets need a win and a confidence boost, and Oakland is as good a place as any to get it.
Jets -3. New York in a blow out 31-13.
Cleveland Browns @ Washington Redskins
Line: Redskins -7
O/U: 42
These are always tough games to call. On one hand, you have a team that desperately needs redemption after a terrible loss last week. On the other, you have a team with renewed confidence after beating a very good team last week. I still don't think the Browns are very good, though, and I think the Redskins will approach this game with a lot of intensity.
Skins -7. Washington Needs This One 29-16.
Indianapolis Colts @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Colts -2
O/U: 47
Linebuster!
I'm ready to say that the Colts are back. Harrison is playing better, and Peyton and the O put up 31 on a solid Ravens D last week. The Packers are an OK team, but are having some issues. I don't think they'll keep up with the Colts, even at Lambeau.
Colts -2. Indy wins 27-17.
Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Bucs -10.5
O/U: 38
Tampa proved themselves last week against the Panthers. Unless they have a major letdown, they should coast right by the Seahawks, especially at home.
Bucs -10.5. It's lot of points to give, but I like Garcia better than Griese. Bucs 27-10.
Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -3
O/U: 48
The Pats were crushed by the Chargers. Will they respond like they did after falling to the Fins? The Pats' D is still a solid group, and can keep Cutler under control, as the Broncos O has fallen off since the first few weeks of the season. Cassel needs to play well, and against a poor Broncos D, he may have that chance. I just worry that he isn't ready to put up the big numbers he'll need to put up if the Broncos offense shows up.
Broncos +3. I think Denver's offense will show up. They'll win 31-23.
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
RECAP - WEEK SIX
This week: 7-7 (41-43-3)
Linebusters: 3-2 (13-16-1)
Straight Picks (w/o Line): 6-8 (49-38)
Stupid NFC East. The league's "best" (see, they get quotes now, because they looked weak) division cost me two big games this week. Dallas and New York...what the hell? Did you just not show up? I mean, I kinda get Dallas, because Arizona is a solid team and put a ton of pressure on Romo defensively, but the Giants? The Browns are awful. I still think they're awful. But somehow they housed the Giants. Crazy. Also of note...though I'll count it against me, I would have never picked the Bengals had I known Carson Palmer wouldn't play. That was announced after I posted the picks on Thursday. My bad.
Finally the Saints showed up...
Oakland Raiders @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -7.5
O/U: 47
Linebuster!
My Pick: Saints -7.5. New Orleans cruises 31-13.
Result: Saints 34-3
It took them a while to start scoring, but Brees was on fire throughout and the Saints finally took care of business. Looks like Tom Cable isn't Oakland's Savior after all. Same old Raiders.
They're Baaaaaack
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -4.5
O/U: 39
My Pick: Ravens +4.5. Baltimore wins 16-13.
Result: Colts 31-3
My reasoning for this pick was that the Colts needed to prove themselves to me before I could take them seriously. They have. Peyton may have been a bit rusty in the first few games after not playing in the preseason, but he's back. Marvin Harrison played well, too. The Ravens have little offense, though, so it will be interesting to see how the Colts' D responds from here on out.
Good Enough?
Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -6
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Bengals +6. Cincy finally gets in the win column 23-21.
Result: Jets 26-14
Like I said above, I didn't know Palmer would be absent when I picked this game. The question for Jets fans is whether or not this effort was good enough. Defensively, they were OK, but with Fitzgerald at QB for Cincy, I think any defense would have looked good. Favre was good, as usual, but the Jets had only 86 yards rushing against one of the league's worst rush defenses. They won, so no harm done. Just something to think about in the future...
Who's for Real?
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Bucs -1
O/U: 36.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Panthers +1. Carolina takes out the Bucs 23-16.
Result: Bucs 27-3
You have your answer. The Bucs are for real, and the Panthers are hit-and-miss. Yes, the Bucs have a good D, but if DelHomme and company are going to be a force in the NFC, they'll need more than 3 points, no matter who they play. Tampa put up good numbers, making a strong case for Jeff Garcia to remain at starting QB.
Where are you Going?
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -13
O/U: 45.5
My Pick: Lions +13. Vikings still win 30-20.
Result: Vikings 12-10
It's a win, but if the Viking offense is bad enough to need a last-second field goal to get to 12 points on the hapless Lions, how far can we expect them to go? The NFC North looks pretty bad this year...
For Real
Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Bears -3
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Bears -3. Chicago takes it 20-13.
Result: Falcons 22-20
What a football game this turned out to be! Chicago rallies for 10 points in the last few minutes to go up by 1 with :11 left, and then Matt Ryan works some magic to help veteran Jason Elam win it. Though I question the clock (only 5 seconds ran off for a 25 yard pass play?), I think the Falcons are for real. Not playoff "for real", but they should be just on the outside. They're a pretty good football team.
Another BarnBurner
Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -3
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Dolphins +3. Miami pulls out a squeaker 24-23.
Result: Texans 29-28
Yet another of the last second wins this week. Both teams played well. I don't think either is really going anywhere. Miami really plays to their competition, and Houston is in an awfully tough division.
Holy S+%T
St. Louis Rams @ Washington Redskins
Line: Redskins -13.5
O/U: 44
My Pick: Rams +13.5. Redskins still win easily 27-17.
Result: Rams 19-17
I was worried that a lack of offensive firepower might bite the Redskins in the butt at some point, but the Rams? Really? Come on Washington, have some pride. I'm not sure that this means anything...the Skins just came out flat. They should still be a solid force in the NFC East.
Clawing Their Way Back
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -3.5
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Jags +3.5. Jacksonville shuts down Cutler again and wins 27-21.
Result: Jags 24-17
Now at .500, Jacksonville is looking like a contender again. They were supposed to be a sure-fire playoff team when the season began. Denver is looking suspect, as well they should be with very little defense and a loss to Kansas City under their belts.
Thank God they play 4 Quarters
Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: Eagles -5
O/U: 42.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Eagles -5. Philly rolls 31-17.
Result: Eagles 40-26
I was very worried about this game as I watched SF 26-17 roll across the bottom of the screen, but I have to give the Eagles credit...they hit the switch. 23 4th quarter points sealed it, and the Eagles are back in the discussion in the NFC East. At 3-3, they're only 1 game behind the Skins and Cowboys (though they've lost to both).
Uh-Oh
Dallas Cowboys @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cowboys -5
O/U: 50
My Pick: Cowboys -5. Dallas wins 37-28.
Result: Cardinals 30-24 (OT)
The problem isn't so much the loss...Dallas showed good resilience to get the game tied late...the issue now is the loss of Romo for a few weeks. As that team's leader, his absence affects everything. Arizona looked very good, especailly on defense. Now they need to prove they can win on the road.
Again, why would you favor the Seahawks?
Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -2
O/U: 46.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Packers +2. Green Bay gets through Seattle 27-14.
Result: Packers 27-17
Seattle is going nowhere. Now Hasslebeck is likely going to miss next week's game, and the offense will be entrusted to Seneca Wallace. Much of their turmoil can be directly attributed to injuries, but that's part of the game. Green Bay has a real shot in the NFC North, with Minnesota struggling.
Statement
New England Patriots @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -5.5
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Pats +5.5. I don't think they'll win, but they'll keep it close. Chargers 23-21.
Result: Chargers 30-20
San Diego has made a statement. They will be the AFC West champion assuming they can beat Denver the next time around. New England is hot-and-cold, which is fitting for a team with an unproven QB. They will likely miss the playoffs. Sorry Pats fans.
Glad I didn't watch this...
New York Giants @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Giants -9
O/U: 43
Linebuster!
My Pick: Giants -9. New York cruises 27-10.
Result: Browns 35-14
Had I not been otherwise indisposed, I'm not sure my TV would have lived through my viewing of this game. What happened? The Browns' O was without its starting TE Kellen Winslow, and yet still put up 35 points. The anemic Brown offense. The one that managed only 26 COMBINED points in its first 3 games. Giants, time to regroup. I never thought the Giants were as good as people thought this year, and maybe they are destined to prove it in the next few weeks. Also of note...first Giants loss on the ROAD in a very long time.
Byes: BUF, TEN, PIT, KC
Linebusters: 3-2 (13-16-1)
Straight Picks (w/o Line): 6-8 (49-38)
Stupid NFC East. The league's "best" (see, they get quotes now, because they looked weak) division cost me two big games this week. Dallas and New York...what the hell? Did you just not show up? I mean, I kinda get Dallas, because Arizona is a solid team and put a ton of pressure on Romo defensively, but the Giants? The Browns are awful. I still think they're awful. But somehow they housed the Giants. Crazy. Also of note...though I'll count it against me, I would have never picked the Bengals had I known Carson Palmer wouldn't play. That was announced after I posted the picks on Thursday. My bad.
Finally the Saints showed up...
Oakland Raiders @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -7.5
O/U: 47
Linebuster!
My Pick: Saints -7.5. New Orleans cruises 31-13.
Result: Saints 34-3
It took them a while to start scoring, but Brees was on fire throughout and the Saints finally took care of business. Looks like Tom Cable isn't Oakland's Savior after all. Same old Raiders.
They're Baaaaaack
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -4.5
O/U: 39
My Pick: Ravens +4.5. Baltimore wins 16-13.
Result: Colts 31-3
My reasoning for this pick was that the Colts needed to prove themselves to me before I could take them seriously. They have. Peyton may have been a bit rusty in the first few games after not playing in the preseason, but he's back. Marvin Harrison played well, too. The Ravens have little offense, though, so it will be interesting to see how the Colts' D responds from here on out.
Good Enough?
Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -6
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Bengals +6. Cincy finally gets in the win column 23-21.
Result: Jets 26-14
Like I said above, I didn't know Palmer would be absent when I picked this game. The question for Jets fans is whether or not this effort was good enough. Defensively, they were OK, but with Fitzgerald at QB for Cincy, I think any defense would have looked good. Favre was good, as usual, but the Jets had only 86 yards rushing against one of the league's worst rush defenses. They won, so no harm done. Just something to think about in the future...
Who's for Real?
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Bucs -1
O/U: 36.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Panthers +1. Carolina takes out the Bucs 23-16.
Result: Bucs 27-3
You have your answer. The Bucs are for real, and the Panthers are hit-and-miss. Yes, the Bucs have a good D, but if DelHomme and company are going to be a force in the NFC, they'll need more than 3 points, no matter who they play. Tampa put up good numbers, making a strong case for Jeff Garcia to remain at starting QB.
Where are you Going?
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -13
O/U: 45.5
My Pick: Lions +13. Vikings still win 30-20.
Result: Vikings 12-10
It's a win, but if the Viking offense is bad enough to need a last-second field goal to get to 12 points on the hapless Lions, how far can we expect them to go? The NFC North looks pretty bad this year...
For Real
Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Bears -3
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Bears -3. Chicago takes it 20-13.
Result: Falcons 22-20
What a football game this turned out to be! Chicago rallies for 10 points in the last few minutes to go up by 1 with :11 left, and then Matt Ryan works some magic to help veteran Jason Elam win it. Though I question the clock (only 5 seconds ran off for a 25 yard pass play?), I think the Falcons are for real. Not playoff "for real", but they should be just on the outside. They're a pretty good football team.
Another BarnBurner
Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -3
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Dolphins +3. Miami pulls out a squeaker 24-23.
Result: Texans 29-28
Yet another of the last second wins this week. Both teams played well. I don't think either is really going anywhere. Miami really plays to their competition, and Houston is in an awfully tough division.
Holy S+%T
St. Louis Rams @ Washington Redskins
Line: Redskins -13.5
O/U: 44
My Pick: Rams +13.5. Redskins still win easily 27-17.
Result: Rams 19-17
I was worried that a lack of offensive firepower might bite the Redskins in the butt at some point, but the Rams? Really? Come on Washington, have some pride. I'm not sure that this means anything...the Skins just came out flat. They should still be a solid force in the NFC East.
Clawing Their Way Back
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -3.5
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Jags +3.5. Jacksonville shuts down Cutler again and wins 27-21.
Result: Jags 24-17
Now at .500, Jacksonville is looking like a contender again. They were supposed to be a sure-fire playoff team when the season began. Denver is looking suspect, as well they should be with very little defense and a loss to Kansas City under their belts.
Thank God they play 4 Quarters
Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: Eagles -5
O/U: 42.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Eagles -5. Philly rolls 31-17.
Result: Eagles 40-26
I was very worried about this game as I watched SF 26-17 roll across the bottom of the screen, but I have to give the Eagles credit...they hit the switch. 23 4th quarter points sealed it, and the Eagles are back in the discussion in the NFC East. At 3-3, they're only 1 game behind the Skins and Cowboys (though they've lost to both).
Uh-Oh
Dallas Cowboys @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cowboys -5
O/U: 50
My Pick: Cowboys -5. Dallas wins 37-28.
Result: Cardinals 30-24 (OT)
The problem isn't so much the loss...Dallas showed good resilience to get the game tied late...the issue now is the loss of Romo for a few weeks. As that team's leader, his absence affects everything. Arizona looked very good, especailly on defense. Now they need to prove they can win on the road.
Again, why would you favor the Seahawks?
Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -2
O/U: 46.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Packers +2. Green Bay gets through Seattle 27-14.
Result: Packers 27-17
Seattle is going nowhere. Now Hasslebeck is likely going to miss next week's game, and the offense will be entrusted to Seneca Wallace. Much of their turmoil can be directly attributed to injuries, but that's part of the game. Green Bay has a real shot in the NFC North, with Minnesota struggling.
Statement
New England Patriots @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -5.5
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Pats +5.5. I don't think they'll win, but they'll keep it close. Chargers 23-21.
Result: Chargers 30-20
San Diego has made a statement. They will be the AFC West champion assuming they can beat Denver the next time around. New England is hot-and-cold, which is fitting for a team with an unproven QB. They will likely miss the playoffs. Sorry Pats fans.
Glad I didn't watch this...
New York Giants @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Giants -9
O/U: 43
Linebuster!
My Pick: Giants -9. New York cruises 27-10.
Result: Browns 35-14
Had I not been otherwise indisposed, I'm not sure my TV would have lived through my viewing of this game. What happened? The Browns' O was without its starting TE Kellen Winslow, and yet still put up 35 points. The anemic Brown offense. The one that managed only 26 COMBINED points in its first 3 games. Giants, time to regroup. I never thought the Giants were as good as people thought this year, and maybe they are destined to prove it in the next few weeks. Also of note...first Giants loss on the ROAD in a very long time.
Byes: BUF, TEN, PIT, KC
Thursday, October 9, 2008
PREVIEW - WEEK SIX
Oakland Raiders @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -7.5
O/U: 47
Linebuster!
It's Oakland's first game with a new coach, they are IN New Orleans, and the Saints are a playoff-caliber team that has fallen on hard times. You do the math.
Saints -7.5. New Orleans cruises 31-13.
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -4.5
O/U: 39
Peyton hasn't been able to get anything going, and now he faces the league's best defense against both the run and the pass. Baltimore is capable of running the ball, and Indy has been terrible against the run this year. I don't want to pick against them, but the Colts have a lot left to prove.
Ravens +4.5. Baltimore wins 16-13.
Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -6
O/U: 44.5
The Jets have to win this game, especially with the other 3 teams in the AFC east performing pretty well. New England won't run away with the division like everyone thought before the year, but they will be in the hunt with everyone else. The Jets had the offense running on all cylinders against the Cards, but can they keep it going after a bye week? Cincy is in trouble, and badly needs a win, too. They played well in Giants stadium a few weeks ago, and I think that confidence will carry over. Plus they sport more passing than rushing, and the Jets have one of the league's worst pass defenses. Cincy has a good pass D, but no run D, so the Jets will need to rely heavily on Thomas Jones. I don't think he gets it done.
Bengals +6. Cincy finally gets in the win column 23-21.
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Bucs -1
O/U: 36.5
Linebuster!
Tampa is switching back to Jeff Garcia, and though he will want to re-prove himself, I'm not sure he'll be able to get it done. Carolina has been solid, but is not being touted as highly as they should be. Expect the Panthers to want this one to prove that they're the team to beat in that division.
Panthers +1. Carolina takes out the Bucs 23-16.
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -13
O/U: 45.5
Minnesota needs a win, and Detroit is terrible. But 13 points is too much to give to a team that has not shown it can do a whole lot on offense. AP may run wild. Frerotte may have a great game. But Detroit played up to the Packers (for a little while), and I expect them to play OK against the Vikings.
Lions +13. Vikings still win 30-20.
Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Bears -3
O/U: 43.5
I'm up on the Falcons right now, but Chicago is good enough defensively to pressure young Matt Ryan into mistakes, and to take away the potent Falcons running game. Chicago may not put up many points, though, so go under.
Bears -3. Chicago takes it 20-13.
Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -3
O/U: 44.5
The only reason the Texans are getting point is that they are at home. Miami proved it can play with the big dogs the past two games, and now has to prove that it won't let up against lesser opposition. I think they will.
Dolphins +3. Miami pulls out a squeaker 24-23.
St. Louis Rams @ Washington Redskins
Line: Redskins -13.5
O/U: 44
Nobody expects the Rams to win this game. Neither do I. I just think that giving a team that relies heavily on defense to win games a 13+ point spread is dangerous.
Rams +13.5. Redskins still win easily 27-17.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -3.5
O/U: 43.5
Denver has stumbled the past few weeks, and has shown that a team with a good defense (or in the Chiefs' case, a suddenly better defense) can shut them down. Jacksonville has a good defense, and at 2-3, must win to keep themselves in the playoff hunt.
Jags +3.5. Jacksonville shuts down Cutler again and wins 27-21.
Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: Eagles -5
O/U: 42.5
Linebuster!
The Eagles have to win this game. Also, Donovan McNabb just challenged himself to play better, and I respect that he will do just that. This is going to be a blowout.
Eagles -5. Philly rolls 31-17.
Dallas Cowboys @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cowboys -5
O/U: 50
This will be a shootout, but I think the Cowboys will handle it. Arizona played very well last week against the Bills, and is due to make some mistakes this week. Dallas beat the Bengals, but not by enough to feel comfortable about it. They will redeem themselves and cover the spread.
Cowboys -5. Dallas wins 37-28.
Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -2
O/U: 46.5
Linebuster!
I don't get this one. Rodgers is probable, the Packers need a win, Seattle sucks, and Seattle's top two QBs have missed practice this week for various injuries. Just because it's in Seattle doesn't mean they'll win.
Packers +2. Green Bay gets through Seattle 27-14.
New England Patriots @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -5.5
O/U: 44.5
I hate to go against this line, but New England has a lot to prove, and San Diego has been terrible.
Pats +5.5. I don't think they'll win, but they'll keep it close. Chargers 23-21.
New York Giants @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Giants -9
O/U: 43
Linebuster!
Cleveland has been awful offensively, and the Giants can really execute on both sides of the ball. That means a lot of points for New York, and very few for the Browns.
Giants -9. New York cruises 27-10.
Byes: BUF, TEN, PIT, KC
Line: Saints -7.5
O/U: 47
Linebuster!
It's Oakland's first game with a new coach, they are IN New Orleans, and the Saints are a playoff-caliber team that has fallen on hard times. You do the math.
Saints -7.5. New Orleans cruises 31-13.
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -4.5
O/U: 39
Peyton hasn't been able to get anything going, and now he faces the league's best defense against both the run and the pass. Baltimore is capable of running the ball, and Indy has been terrible against the run this year. I don't want to pick against them, but the Colts have a lot left to prove.
Ravens +4.5. Baltimore wins 16-13.
Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -6
O/U: 44.5
The Jets have to win this game, especially with the other 3 teams in the AFC east performing pretty well. New England won't run away with the division like everyone thought before the year, but they will be in the hunt with everyone else. The Jets had the offense running on all cylinders against the Cards, but can they keep it going after a bye week? Cincy is in trouble, and badly needs a win, too. They played well in Giants stadium a few weeks ago, and I think that confidence will carry over. Plus they sport more passing than rushing, and the Jets have one of the league's worst pass defenses. Cincy has a good pass D, but no run D, so the Jets will need to rely heavily on Thomas Jones. I don't think he gets it done.
Bengals +6. Cincy finally gets in the win column 23-21.
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Bucs -1
O/U: 36.5
Linebuster!
Tampa is switching back to Jeff Garcia, and though he will want to re-prove himself, I'm not sure he'll be able to get it done. Carolina has been solid, but is not being touted as highly as they should be. Expect the Panthers to want this one to prove that they're the team to beat in that division.
Panthers +1. Carolina takes out the Bucs 23-16.
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -13
O/U: 45.5
Minnesota needs a win, and Detroit is terrible. But 13 points is too much to give to a team that has not shown it can do a whole lot on offense. AP may run wild. Frerotte may have a great game. But Detroit played up to the Packers (for a little while), and I expect them to play OK against the Vikings.
Lions +13. Vikings still win 30-20.
Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Bears -3
O/U: 43.5
I'm up on the Falcons right now, but Chicago is good enough defensively to pressure young Matt Ryan into mistakes, and to take away the potent Falcons running game. Chicago may not put up many points, though, so go under.
Bears -3. Chicago takes it 20-13.
Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -3
O/U: 44.5
The only reason the Texans are getting point is that they are at home. Miami proved it can play with the big dogs the past two games, and now has to prove that it won't let up against lesser opposition. I think they will.
Dolphins +3. Miami pulls out a squeaker 24-23.
St. Louis Rams @ Washington Redskins
Line: Redskins -13.5
O/U: 44
Nobody expects the Rams to win this game. Neither do I. I just think that giving a team that relies heavily on defense to win games a 13+ point spread is dangerous.
Rams +13.5. Redskins still win easily 27-17.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -3.5
O/U: 43.5
Denver has stumbled the past few weeks, and has shown that a team with a good defense (or in the Chiefs' case, a suddenly better defense) can shut them down. Jacksonville has a good defense, and at 2-3, must win to keep themselves in the playoff hunt.
Jags +3.5. Jacksonville shuts down Cutler again and wins 27-21.
Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: Eagles -5
O/U: 42.5
Linebuster!
The Eagles have to win this game. Also, Donovan McNabb just challenged himself to play better, and I respect that he will do just that. This is going to be a blowout.
Eagles -5. Philly rolls 31-17.
Dallas Cowboys @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cowboys -5
O/U: 50
This will be a shootout, but I think the Cowboys will handle it. Arizona played very well last week against the Bills, and is due to make some mistakes this week. Dallas beat the Bengals, but not by enough to feel comfortable about it. They will redeem themselves and cover the spread.
Cowboys -5. Dallas wins 37-28.
Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -2
O/U: 46.5
Linebuster!
I don't get this one. Rodgers is probable, the Packers need a win, Seattle sucks, and Seattle's top two QBs have missed practice this week for various injuries. Just because it's in Seattle doesn't mean they'll win.
Packers +2. Green Bay gets through Seattle 27-14.
New England Patriots @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -5.5
O/U: 44.5
I hate to go against this line, but New England has a lot to prove, and San Diego has been terrible.
Pats +5.5. I don't think they'll win, but they'll keep it close. Chargers 23-21.
New York Giants @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Giants -9
O/U: 43
Linebuster!
Cleveland has been awful offensively, and the Giants can really execute on both sides of the ball. That means a lot of points for New York, and very few for the Browns.
Giants -9. New York cruises 27-10.
Byes: BUF, TEN, PIT, KC
Monday, October 6, 2008
RECAP - WEEK FIVE
This Week: 3-8-2 (34-36-3)
Linebusters: 2-2-1 (10-14-1)
Straight Picks (w/o spread): 7-6 (43-30)
I give up. This is ridiculous. All of a sudden, Cincy gets better, KC and Seattle get even worse, the Eagles disappear, and Buffalo looks like last year's team. This season is pissing me off.
A Bad State of Affairs in Indy
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 47
Linebuster!
My Pick: Colts -3. Indy comes out of the bye week ready to go. 33-13.
Result: Colts 31-27
Yeah, I'm right. Yeah, the Colts won. But they realistically shouldn't have, and Indy has plenty to be worried about. The Pats lost a marquee player, and have an excuse for futility. Why are the Colts so bad? Even their passing game, the one thing you'd expect to be good, even if all else is failing, just isn't clicking. It's going to be a long season if they don't get it together.
Beatable
Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 34
My Pick: Ravens +3. Baltimore wins a low scoring game 16-13.
Result: Titans 13-10
I almost called it...I'll settle for a tie. Baltimore would have likely gotten this win if not for the bad personal foul call on the final Titan drive. Granted, the Ravens still had ample opportunity to stop them thereafter, so they don't have anyone to blame but themselves. Both are solid teams, but the Ravens will be limited this season by their inability to get much going offensively.
Just how good are the fish?
San Diego Chargers @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Chargers -6.5
O/U: 45
My Pick: Chargers -6.5. San Diego won't run away with it, but should win by a touchdown, 27-20.
Result: Dolphins 17-10
I almost went the other way on this pick, and obviously wish I had. It's tough to figure these teams out. Is the San Diego offense the problem, or is the Dolphin defense actually good? Neither of these teams have performed consistently one way or the other, and thus are tough to predict. At least I can now honestly believe that the Chargers really are that bad.
Oh come on...
Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -9.5
O/U: 38.5
My Pick: Chiefs +9.5. Kansas City loses, but only by a touchdown 24-17.
Result: Panthers 34-0
So the Chiefs are going to show up when they feel like it, and just completely fold every other week. What the hell? Making matters worse, I put in a fantasy waiver to claim Deangelo Williams this past week, but withdrew it because he hasn't been performing. Lovely.
Yikes
Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -6
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Eagles -6. McNabb atones for last week in Chicago. Philly wins 27-17
Result: Skins 23-17
I was all over the Skins bandwagon pre-season, but their awful last 2 weeks of preseason ball combined with the week 1 loss to the Giants pushed me away. Just when I forget why I liked them so much, they march into Dallas and Philly in consecutive weeks and get wins. They are a force to contend with in the league's best division, and the Cowboys and Giants need to watch out, because there may not be enough playoff berths to go around. After the first 2 games, I thought Philly was going to contend for the playoffs, but now I'm back to my preseason pick that they would be #4 in the NFC East. It's just too good of a conference.
I knew better...
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
Line: Bears -3.5
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Lions +3.5. This is probably crazy, but it's a gut feeling. Detroit 23-17.
Result: Bears 34-7
Ok, so it was definitely crazy. But you can't argue with the notion that the Lions have to win at some point. I was just trying to jump the gun. I guess I'll just let it happen, and if it costs me a game, so be it. I'm not exactly posting a great win percentage anyway. The Bears are great when their defense holds up. It's the comebacks they've allowed that should worry Chicago fans.
Dammit
Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers
Line: None
O/U: None
My Pick: Green Bay -3. Packers win 24-17.
Result: Falcons 27-24
I had this called, and changed it after getting some "sage" advice. From now on, I'll stick to my gut. The Packers' rush defense is suspect, and the Falcons can beat most teams in the league if they are allowed to rush effectively.
Past vs. Present
Seattle Seahawks @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -7
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Seahawks +7. New York still wins a ball control, rush-heavy game 23-20.
Result: Giants 44-6
The last four meetings between these teams were close. This one wasn't. Seattle's defense got shredded, without Plaxico, and their offense did nothing. The Giants came out of the Bye looking way better than I thought they did before it. They put up 41 against a terrible Rams D, but dropped 44 on what was supposed to be an OK Seattle D. Much more impressive. Again, that NFC East is a battleground right now.
Where has all the Offense Gone?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -3
O/U: 48
Linebuster!
My pick: Broncos -3. Denver needs a big win and gets it 37-24.
Result: Broncos 16-13
Denver's D was good in this game, but is still terrible in the grand scheme of things. The real worry is that the offense is gone for the Broncos. Their D won't win them many games, so they'll have to get Cutler back on track quickly to take advantage of the Chargers' stumbles. Tampa is still a good team, but is somewhat the reverse of the Broncos. Their offense won't win them many games, so they need to rely on the defense. Holding the Broncos to 16 is pretty darn good, but they need a little more offensive support.
Cassel can Throw the Deep Ball!
New England Patriots @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: Pats -3
O/U: 41.5
Linebuster!
My Pick:Pats -3. San Fran's Gettin' Rolled 30-10.
Result: Pats 30-21
Good enough. Cassel showed he can hit Moss deep, which is very important to stretch out defenses in the future. The D was alright, and the Pats are still afloat. San Fran is just about what you'd expect. They'll beat some teams they weren't supposed to, like Seattle, but should finish with only 5 or 6 wins.
So...does this mean that at 4-1 the Bills are Somehow Screwed?
Buffalo Bills @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cards -1
O/U: 44.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Bills +1. Buffalo beats the birds 27-17.
Result: Cards 41-17
Yeah, it's tough to overcome your starting QB getting knocked out on the 3rd snap of the ballgame, but I expected far more from the Buffalo Defense. They did not stop the Birds ONCE in the first half (TD, TD, TD, FG in 4 drives). They weren't exactly stellar after the break, either. Losman was OK in relief of Edwards, but I feel like all he's good for is throwing the deep ball. Buffalo also turned the ball over far too much. Arizona is great when they win the turnover battle, and should have smooth sailing to an NFC West title.
Seriously? It's the Bengals, guys...
Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -17
O/U: 44
Linebuster!
My Pick: Dallas -17. Really. It'll be that bad. Cowboys 37-10.
Result: Dallas 31-22
Why can't the Dallas defense step up to the plate and play like they have the potential to play? Cincy shouldn't be scoring 22 points on them. Yeah, it was a ridiculous spread, and I should have never gone with it. Now I know better.
Well, I got one Upset Right
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jags -4
O/U: 36
My Pick: Steelers +4. Big Ben and the Steelers O does just enough to win. Pittsburgh 17-16.
Result: Steelers 26-21
You had to know this would be close. I gave the Steelers the benefit of the doubt because the Jacksonville offense can't get much going through the air this year, and the Steelers have a great rushing defense. The Jags are in trouble, as are the Colts. If the Titans run away with the division, both teams will be looking for wild cards. With the Chargers and Broncos fighting out west, the Bills and Pats likely dueling in the East, and the Steelers and Ravens both looking good, those wild card spots will be tough to come by.
Thanks Marty!
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -3
O/U: 46.5
My Pick: Vikings +3. Don't bet against desperation. Minnesota 27-23.
Result: Vikings 30-27
Martin Gramatica's late miss of a 46-yard field goal enabled the Vikings to pull it out. Kudos to the Saints defense, which held AP in check all game. The Vikings D wasn't bad either...most of the Saints' points were on special teams! These are two pretty good 2-3 teams, and both will be trying to make a playoff push. I'm not sure if either will make it, but both have the capability to beat very good teams.
Linebusters: 2-2-1 (10-14-1)
Straight Picks (w/o spread): 7-6 (43-30)
I give up. This is ridiculous. All of a sudden, Cincy gets better, KC and Seattle get even worse, the Eagles disappear, and Buffalo looks like last year's team. This season is pissing me off.
A Bad State of Affairs in Indy
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 47
Linebuster!
My Pick: Colts -3. Indy comes out of the bye week ready to go. 33-13.
Result: Colts 31-27
Yeah, I'm right. Yeah, the Colts won. But they realistically shouldn't have, and Indy has plenty to be worried about. The Pats lost a marquee player, and have an excuse for futility. Why are the Colts so bad? Even their passing game, the one thing you'd expect to be good, even if all else is failing, just isn't clicking. It's going to be a long season if they don't get it together.
Beatable
Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 34
My Pick: Ravens +3. Baltimore wins a low scoring game 16-13.
Result: Titans 13-10
I almost called it...I'll settle for a tie. Baltimore would have likely gotten this win if not for the bad personal foul call on the final Titan drive. Granted, the Ravens still had ample opportunity to stop them thereafter, so they don't have anyone to blame but themselves. Both are solid teams, but the Ravens will be limited this season by their inability to get much going offensively.
Just how good are the fish?
San Diego Chargers @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Chargers -6.5
O/U: 45
My Pick: Chargers -6.5. San Diego won't run away with it, but should win by a touchdown, 27-20.
Result: Dolphins 17-10
I almost went the other way on this pick, and obviously wish I had. It's tough to figure these teams out. Is the San Diego offense the problem, or is the Dolphin defense actually good? Neither of these teams have performed consistently one way or the other, and thus are tough to predict. At least I can now honestly believe that the Chargers really are that bad.
Oh come on...
Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -9.5
O/U: 38.5
My Pick: Chiefs +9.5. Kansas City loses, but only by a touchdown 24-17.
Result: Panthers 34-0
So the Chiefs are going to show up when they feel like it, and just completely fold every other week. What the hell? Making matters worse, I put in a fantasy waiver to claim Deangelo Williams this past week, but withdrew it because he hasn't been performing. Lovely.
Yikes
Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -6
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Eagles -6. McNabb atones for last week in Chicago. Philly wins 27-17
Result: Skins 23-17
I was all over the Skins bandwagon pre-season, but their awful last 2 weeks of preseason ball combined with the week 1 loss to the Giants pushed me away. Just when I forget why I liked them so much, they march into Dallas and Philly in consecutive weeks and get wins. They are a force to contend with in the league's best division, and the Cowboys and Giants need to watch out, because there may not be enough playoff berths to go around. After the first 2 games, I thought Philly was going to contend for the playoffs, but now I'm back to my preseason pick that they would be #4 in the NFC East. It's just too good of a conference.
I knew better...
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
Line: Bears -3.5
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Lions +3.5. This is probably crazy, but it's a gut feeling. Detroit 23-17.
Result: Bears 34-7
Ok, so it was definitely crazy. But you can't argue with the notion that the Lions have to win at some point. I was just trying to jump the gun. I guess I'll just let it happen, and if it costs me a game, so be it. I'm not exactly posting a great win percentage anyway. The Bears are great when their defense holds up. It's the comebacks they've allowed that should worry Chicago fans.
Dammit
Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers
Line: None
O/U: None
My Pick: Green Bay -3. Packers win 24-17.
Result: Falcons 27-24
I had this called, and changed it after getting some "sage" advice. From now on, I'll stick to my gut. The Packers' rush defense is suspect, and the Falcons can beat most teams in the league if they are allowed to rush effectively.
Past vs. Present
Seattle Seahawks @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -7
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Seahawks +7. New York still wins a ball control, rush-heavy game 23-20.
Result: Giants 44-6
The last four meetings between these teams were close. This one wasn't. Seattle's defense got shredded, without Plaxico, and their offense did nothing. The Giants came out of the Bye looking way better than I thought they did before it. They put up 41 against a terrible Rams D, but dropped 44 on what was supposed to be an OK Seattle D. Much more impressive. Again, that NFC East is a battleground right now.
Where has all the Offense Gone?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -3
O/U: 48
Linebuster!
My pick: Broncos -3. Denver needs a big win and gets it 37-24.
Result: Broncos 16-13
Denver's D was good in this game, but is still terrible in the grand scheme of things. The real worry is that the offense is gone for the Broncos. Their D won't win them many games, so they'll have to get Cutler back on track quickly to take advantage of the Chargers' stumbles. Tampa is still a good team, but is somewhat the reverse of the Broncos. Their offense won't win them many games, so they need to rely on the defense. Holding the Broncos to 16 is pretty darn good, but they need a little more offensive support.
Cassel can Throw the Deep Ball!
New England Patriots @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: Pats -3
O/U: 41.5
Linebuster!
My Pick:Pats -3. San Fran's Gettin' Rolled 30-10.
Result: Pats 30-21
Good enough. Cassel showed he can hit Moss deep, which is very important to stretch out defenses in the future. The D was alright, and the Pats are still afloat. San Fran is just about what you'd expect. They'll beat some teams they weren't supposed to, like Seattle, but should finish with only 5 or 6 wins.
So...does this mean that at 4-1 the Bills are Somehow Screwed?
Buffalo Bills @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cards -1
O/U: 44.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Bills +1. Buffalo beats the birds 27-17.
Result: Cards 41-17
Yeah, it's tough to overcome your starting QB getting knocked out on the 3rd snap of the ballgame, but I expected far more from the Buffalo Defense. They did not stop the Birds ONCE in the first half (TD, TD, TD, FG in 4 drives). They weren't exactly stellar after the break, either. Losman was OK in relief of Edwards, but I feel like all he's good for is throwing the deep ball. Buffalo also turned the ball over far too much. Arizona is great when they win the turnover battle, and should have smooth sailing to an NFC West title.
Seriously? It's the Bengals, guys...
Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -17
O/U: 44
Linebuster!
My Pick: Dallas -17. Really. It'll be that bad. Cowboys 37-10.
Result: Dallas 31-22
Why can't the Dallas defense step up to the plate and play like they have the potential to play? Cincy shouldn't be scoring 22 points on them. Yeah, it was a ridiculous spread, and I should have never gone with it. Now I know better.
Well, I got one Upset Right
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jags -4
O/U: 36
My Pick: Steelers +4. Big Ben and the Steelers O does just enough to win. Pittsburgh 17-16.
Result: Steelers 26-21
You had to know this would be close. I gave the Steelers the benefit of the doubt because the Jacksonville offense can't get much going through the air this year, and the Steelers have a great rushing defense. The Jags are in trouble, as are the Colts. If the Titans run away with the division, both teams will be looking for wild cards. With the Chargers and Broncos fighting out west, the Bills and Pats likely dueling in the East, and the Steelers and Ravens both looking good, those wild card spots will be tough to come by.
Thanks Marty!
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -3
O/U: 46.5
My Pick: Vikings +3. Don't bet against desperation. Minnesota 27-23.
Result: Vikings 30-27
Martin Gramatica's late miss of a 46-yard field goal enabled the Vikings to pull it out. Kudos to the Saints defense, which held AP in check all game. The Vikings D wasn't bad either...most of the Saints' points were on special teams! These are two pretty good 2-3 teams, and both will be trying to make a playoff push. I'm not sure if either will make it, but both have the capability to beat very good teams.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
PREVIEW - WEEK FIVE
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 47
Linebuster!
After putting up a good fight against the Jags, Vegas has overestimated the consistency of the Houston Texans. They will have a letdown, and a talented Colts team coming off a bye week is a very tough opponent, even in the friendly confines of a hopefully open-roofed Reliant Stadium. The Texans would love to do it for the hurricane-ravaged home crowd. But they won't.
Colts -3. Indy comes out of the bye week ready to go. 33-13.
Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 34
After playing a decent Steeler team, the Ravens D is still #1. Tennessee has a stout D too, which will be tough for the 25th-ranked Ravens offense to penetrate. A hard-nosed, physical game revolving around rushing and field position would favor the Ravens. 4-0 is a bit lofty for the Titans' expectations, and M&T Bank Stadium is not an easy place to play.
Ravens +3. Baltimore wins a low scoring game 16-13.
San Diego Chargers @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Chargers -6.5
O/U: 45
Miami comes off the Bye with a ton of confidence after their upset of New England, and will face an underachieving San Diego team that needs a big win. At this point, I'm wondering if San Diego is playing flat, or is just plain bad. I think we'll find out this week. San Diego has to run the ball, and must be ready for anything on defense.
Chargers -6.5. San Diego won't run away with it, but should win by a touchdown, 27-20.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -9.5
O/U: 38.5
Kansas City has stayed close to the two "better" teams they have played...a 7 point loss to New England, and a big win over the Broncos. They have been crushed by lesser opponents Atlanta and Oakland. Carolina qualifies as a "better" team, but has a comeback win over Chicago, a late win over the Chargers, and a solid win over Atlanta. Carolina's tendency to allow games to stay close, combined with the league's #19 rush defense against a rejuvenated Larry Johnson, make Kansas City an attractive pick. Plus a lot of the big spreads in prior weeks haven't been covered.
Chiefs +9.5. Kansas City loses, but only by a touchdown 24-17.
Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -6
O/U: 42.5
Yeah, the Skins beat the Boys. But can they have a repeat performance against the Eagles? Both teams have solid defenses, but their pass defense stats don't look as good. Advantage Eagles. Shawn Springs is questionable (calf), and even if he plays, may be bothered by it. Advantage Eagles. Westbrook (still questionable - ankle) practiced Wednesday. Advantage Eagles. I'm also not sure if the Jason Campbell offense is going to be consistently good, or will just have a few good games.
Eagles -6. McNabb atones for last week in Chicago. Philly wins 27-17
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
Line: Bears -3.5
O/U: 44.5
The Lions are coming off a bye week, and are going to be a lot better...nah, I'm just kidding, they're still atrocious. Chicago is alright, but I'm not sure if they're going to show up and hold on. This could be one of the few (very few...) games Detroit wins this year, especially being at home.
Lions +3.5. This is probably crazy, but it's a gut feeling. Detroit 23-17.
Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers
Line: None
O/U: None
Green Bay has the #26 rush defense (by ypg) in the league, and Atlanta has the league's #1 rushing attack. That does not bode well for the Pack, even if Aaron Rodgers does play. And if he plays and re-injures himself, he has no real backup. Plus the Falcons are the team that marched into Lambeau a few years ago in the playoffs and won, so they may not be intimidated by the Green Bay faithful. Then again, it's the Falcons. And the Pack needs redemption after last week. Vegas is waiting for news on Aaron Rodgers before they post a line. I'll go with the Packers on any line under -5. I'm sure Vegas will end up somewhere around Green Bay -3. Packers win 24-17.
Seattle Seahawks @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -7
O/U: 43.5
I think it's a travesty that the Giants became #1 in the ESPN power rankings after the Cowboys lost, as I'm not yet convinced that they are an elite squad. A close win over the Redskins, an OT win over the Bengals, and a blowout of the Rams do not equal #1 in the league. That said, the Seahawks are not doing so well. But with Plaxico out, and the recent history of this series to consider, I'm going to take Seattle. Plus the Giants aren't that good at home (for some reason), and teams with big spread haven't been covering too often.
Seahawks +7. New York still wins a ball control, rush-heavy game 23-20.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -3
O/U: 48
Linebuster!
Tampa played well against Green Bay, but with Denver coming off of an embarassing loss, I'll bet they're ready to put up a big number at home. Tampa's 21st-ranked pass defense just won't be good enough to stop Cutler. Granted, Denver's D won't stop Tampa either, but they won't need to.
Broncos -3. Denver needs a big win and gets it 37-24.
New England Patriots @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: Pats -3
O/U: 41.5
Linebuster!
It actually hurts me to think that the once mighty Patriots are only favored by 3 against the lowly 49ers. Of course, this is Vegas overcompensating for the Pats poor performance against Miami. They've had a week off to think about it, and should be back on track.
Pats -3. San Fran's Gettin' Rolled 30-10.
Buffalo Bills @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cards -1
O/U: 44.5
Linebuster!
Wow. The 4-0 Bills are an underdog in Arizona? What? This is a weird season. Without a 34 point lead, I'm guessing the Bills won't collapse defensively for the entire second half and allow 35 points. Though I don't expect Arizona to turn the ball over anywhere near as much as they did last week, they still shouldn't win. Buffalo is a solid team, on both sides of the ball, and will hopefully use their underdog status as motivation.
Bills +1. Buffalo beats the birds 27-17.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -17
O/U: 44
Linebuster!
The spread on this game is ridiculous, but I can't disagree with it. The Cowboys are at home, and have to be annoyed that their offense was held down so well by the Skins. Plus Romo likes to have fun, which makes the team less likely to come out flat. Heck, he's just out in the yard, throwing the ball to his buddies. Cincy's pass defense is actually #4 in the league, but two of their games were against the Browns and Ravens, who wouldn't put up big passing numbers against St. Mary's School for the Blind. Also, Dallas hasn't been good defensively, and this is a prime opportunity for redemption. Cincy stinks.
Dallas -17. Really. It'll be that bad. Cowboys 37-10.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jags -4
O/U: 36
Will anyone score in this game? Pittsburgh has the league's 2nd ranked D, but can't seem to get much going offensively. With Parker back, they ought to be able to run the ball a bit, though. And Jacksonville has really been unimpressive thus far in the season.
Steelers +4. Big Ben and the Steelers O does just enough to win. Pittsburgh 17-16.
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -3
O/U: 46.5
The New Orleans defense has been less than impressive, but seems to be able to get a stop when they desperately need one. The O has been great, but didn't really involve Reggie Bush at all last week. They'll need him to beat a much better Minnesota D. Unfortunately for them, Minnesota is desperate for a win. The last time they were this desperate, they beat the Saints' NFC South foe Carolina.
Vikings +3. Don't bet against desperation. Minnesota 27-23.
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 47
Linebuster!
After putting up a good fight against the Jags, Vegas has overestimated the consistency of the Houston Texans. They will have a letdown, and a talented Colts team coming off a bye week is a very tough opponent, even in the friendly confines of a hopefully open-roofed Reliant Stadium. The Texans would love to do it for the hurricane-ravaged home crowd. But they won't.
Colts -3. Indy comes out of the bye week ready to go. 33-13.
Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 34
After playing a decent Steeler team, the Ravens D is still #1. Tennessee has a stout D too, which will be tough for the 25th-ranked Ravens offense to penetrate. A hard-nosed, physical game revolving around rushing and field position would favor the Ravens. 4-0 is a bit lofty for the Titans' expectations, and M&T Bank Stadium is not an easy place to play.
Ravens +3. Baltimore wins a low scoring game 16-13.
San Diego Chargers @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Chargers -6.5
O/U: 45
Miami comes off the Bye with a ton of confidence after their upset of New England, and will face an underachieving San Diego team that needs a big win. At this point, I'm wondering if San Diego is playing flat, or is just plain bad. I think we'll find out this week. San Diego has to run the ball, and must be ready for anything on defense.
Chargers -6.5. San Diego won't run away with it, but should win by a touchdown, 27-20.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -9.5
O/U: 38.5
Kansas City has stayed close to the two "better" teams they have played...a 7 point loss to New England, and a big win over the Broncos. They have been crushed by lesser opponents Atlanta and Oakland. Carolina qualifies as a "better" team, but has a comeback win over Chicago, a late win over the Chargers, and a solid win over Atlanta. Carolina's tendency to allow games to stay close, combined with the league's #19 rush defense against a rejuvenated Larry Johnson, make Kansas City an attractive pick. Plus a lot of the big spreads in prior weeks haven't been covered.
Chiefs +9.5. Kansas City loses, but only by a touchdown 24-17.
Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -6
O/U: 42.5
Yeah, the Skins beat the Boys. But can they have a repeat performance against the Eagles? Both teams have solid defenses, but their pass defense stats don't look as good. Advantage Eagles. Shawn Springs is questionable (calf), and even if he plays, may be bothered by it. Advantage Eagles. Westbrook (still questionable - ankle) practiced Wednesday. Advantage Eagles. I'm also not sure if the Jason Campbell offense is going to be consistently good, or will just have a few good games.
Eagles -6. McNabb atones for last week in Chicago. Philly wins 27-17
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
Line: Bears -3.5
O/U: 44.5
The Lions are coming off a bye week, and are going to be a lot better...nah, I'm just kidding, they're still atrocious. Chicago is alright, but I'm not sure if they're going to show up and hold on. This could be one of the few (very few...) games Detroit wins this year, especially being at home.
Lions +3.5. This is probably crazy, but it's a gut feeling. Detroit 23-17.
Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers
Line: None
O/U: None
Green Bay has the #26 rush defense (by ypg) in the league, and Atlanta has the league's #1 rushing attack. That does not bode well for the Pack, even if Aaron Rodgers does play. And if he plays and re-injures himself, he has no real backup. Plus the Falcons are the team that marched into Lambeau a few years ago in the playoffs and won, so they may not be intimidated by the Green Bay faithful. Then again, it's the Falcons. And the Pack needs redemption after last week. Vegas is waiting for news on Aaron Rodgers before they post a line. I'll go with the Packers on any line under -5. I'm sure Vegas will end up somewhere around Green Bay -3. Packers win 24-17.
Seattle Seahawks @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -7
O/U: 43.5
I think it's a travesty that the Giants became #1 in the ESPN power rankings after the Cowboys lost, as I'm not yet convinced that they are an elite squad. A close win over the Redskins, an OT win over the Bengals, and a blowout of the Rams do not equal #1 in the league. That said, the Seahawks are not doing so well. But with Plaxico out, and the recent history of this series to consider, I'm going to take Seattle. Plus the Giants aren't that good at home (for some reason), and teams with big spread haven't been covering too often.
Seahawks +7. New York still wins a ball control, rush-heavy game 23-20.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -3
O/U: 48
Linebuster!
Tampa played well against Green Bay, but with Denver coming off of an embarassing loss, I'll bet they're ready to put up a big number at home. Tampa's 21st-ranked pass defense just won't be good enough to stop Cutler. Granted, Denver's D won't stop Tampa either, but they won't need to.
Broncos -3. Denver needs a big win and gets it 37-24.
New England Patriots @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: Pats -3
O/U: 41.5
Linebuster!
It actually hurts me to think that the once mighty Patriots are only favored by 3 against the lowly 49ers. Of course, this is Vegas overcompensating for the Pats poor performance against Miami. They've had a week off to think about it, and should be back on track.
Pats -3. San Fran's Gettin' Rolled 30-10.
Buffalo Bills @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cards -1
O/U: 44.5
Linebuster!
Wow. The 4-0 Bills are an underdog in Arizona? What? This is a weird season. Without a 34 point lead, I'm guessing the Bills won't collapse defensively for the entire second half and allow 35 points. Though I don't expect Arizona to turn the ball over anywhere near as much as they did last week, they still shouldn't win. Buffalo is a solid team, on both sides of the ball, and will hopefully use their underdog status as motivation.
Bills +1. Buffalo beats the birds 27-17.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -17
O/U: 44
Linebuster!
The spread on this game is ridiculous, but I can't disagree with it. The Cowboys are at home, and have to be annoyed that their offense was held down so well by the Skins. Plus Romo likes to have fun, which makes the team less likely to come out flat. Heck, he's just out in the yard, throwing the ball to his buddies. Cincy's pass defense is actually #4 in the league, but two of their games were against the Browns and Ravens, who wouldn't put up big passing numbers against St. Mary's School for the Blind. Also, Dallas hasn't been good defensively, and this is a prime opportunity for redemption. Cincy stinks.
Dallas -17. Really. It'll be that bad. Cowboys 37-10.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jags -4
O/U: 36
Will anyone score in this game? Pittsburgh has the league's 2nd ranked D, but can't seem to get much going offensively. With Parker back, they ought to be able to run the ball a bit, though. And Jacksonville has really been unimpressive thus far in the season.
Steelers +4. Big Ben and the Steelers O does just enough to win. Pittsburgh 17-16.
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -3
O/U: 46.5
The New Orleans defense has been less than impressive, but seems to be able to get a stop when they desperately need one. The O has been great, but didn't really involve Reggie Bush at all last week. They'll need him to beat a much better Minnesota D. Unfortunately for them, Minnesota is desperate for a win. The last time they were this desperate, they beat the Saints' NFC South foe Carolina.
Vikings +3. Don't bet against desperation. Minnesota 27-23.
MLB Playoff Preview - Divisional Round
Dodgers vs. Cubs
I would very much like to see the Cubbies win it all. I'm kind of a sucker for anniversaries, and having not won a world series since 1908, it seems 2008 is the perfect year for the curse to be broken. Torre's Dodgers, or more aptly Manny's Dodgers, are a solid team, but do not have the support, or the pressure, of the Cubs. I think this is the Cubs year.
Cubs in 4.
Brewers vs. Phillies
I'm sorry, but I hate Philadelphia fans. They are rude, cruel, and for some reason have always annoyed me. Then again, they are supportive in their own right. But look at the Brewers...a team that made a great mid-season deal to pick up C.C. Sabathia, fired their manager 3/4 of the way through the year, and still managed to claw past the ever-choking Mets (apparently Jerry Manuel wasn't trained to perform the heimlich maneuver) for a playoff berth. I sincerely hope they do not squander it. Unfortunately, because C.C. can't pitch every day, I have to pick against them.
Phillies in 4.
White Sox vs. Rays
Tampa is a great story...worst to first place in the league's toughest division. But how will a bunch of youngsters, most of whom have never seen the postseason, respond to the pressure? The White Sox are almost a sleeper pick to go all the way after they handled three must-win games in a row, against different teams, just to make it into the postseason. But their previously outstanding offense crumbled down the stretch, and they made the playoffs on the back of a 1-0 win over the Twins. For some reason, though, I still think the Rays will choke.
White Sox in 5.
Red Sox vs. Angels
The "LAA of A" may have had the best record in the league this year, but look at what has happened in the recent postseason history between these two teams! The Red Sox still have a ton of talent, and are a tough draw for any team. Can the Angels win at Fenway? I'm not so sure. The Red Sox won't come back late (K-rod), but as long as they can get ahead early and have their starters keep the pressure off of a questionable middle relief unit, the Sox could pull this off.
Red Sox in 4.
Projected Future Series:
Red Sox over White Sox in 6
Cubs over Phillies in 7
Cubs over Red Sox in 5
I would very much like to see the Cubbies win it all. I'm kind of a sucker for anniversaries, and having not won a world series since 1908, it seems 2008 is the perfect year for the curse to be broken. Torre's Dodgers, or more aptly Manny's Dodgers, are a solid team, but do not have the support, or the pressure, of the Cubs. I think this is the Cubs year.
Cubs in 4.
Brewers vs. Phillies
I'm sorry, but I hate Philadelphia fans. They are rude, cruel, and for some reason have always annoyed me. Then again, they are supportive in their own right. But look at the Brewers...a team that made a great mid-season deal to pick up C.C. Sabathia, fired their manager 3/4 of the way through the year, and still managed to claw past the ever-choking Mets (apparently Jerry Manuel wasn't trained to perform the heimlich maneuver) for a playoff berth. I sincerely hope they do not squander it. Unfortunately, because C.C. can't pitch every day, I have to pick against them.
Phillies in 4.
White Sox vs. Rays
Tampa is a great story...worst to first place in the league's toughest division. But how will a bunch of youngsters, most of whom have never seen the postseason, respond to the pressure? The White Sox are almost a sleeper pick to go all the way after they handled three must-win games in a row, against different teams, just to make it into the postseason. But their previously outstanding offense crumbled down the stretch, and they made the playoffs on the back of a 1-0 win over the Twins. For some reason, though, I still think the Rays will choke.
White Sox in 5.
Red Sox vs. Angels
The "LAA of A" may have had the best record in the league this year, but look at what has happened in the recent postseason history between these two teams! The Red Sox still have a ton of talent, and are a tough draw for any team. Can the Angels win at Fenway? I'm not so sure. The Red Sox won't come back late (K-rod), but as long as they can get ahead early and have their starters keep the pressure off of a questionable middle relief unit, the Sox could pull this off.
Red Sox in 4.
Projected Future Series:
Red Sox over White Sox in 6
Cubs over Phillies in 7
Cubs over Red Sox in 5
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