RECAP - WEEK SEVEN

This Week: 5-9 (46-52-3)
Linebusters: 2-3 (15-19-1)
Straight Picks (w/o line): 8-6 (57-44)

Why does Trigger apparently suck at this? Allow me to explain...This season has more question marks than any season I have ever attempted to predict. Last year, the Broncos were the real tough one, because you never knew which Broncos team would show up. They could beat almost anyone, but could also lose to anyone. This season, more than half of the teams in the NFL are like last year's Broncos. Which team will show up when Miami, New England, the Jets, Indy, Jacksonville, Cleveland, San Diego, Denver, Oakland, Washington, Dallas, Philly, Chicago, Minnesota, Green Bay, New Orleans, Carolina, Arizona, and the Rams play? That's 19 of 32 teams I have just named. You can't argue that any of them have played consistently this season. Each of these teams has either won games or kept them close against good teams, and/or has lost to terrible teams. My job becomes predicting which team will show up, rather than which team is better. That is much harder, and requires luck. I have none.

Proven
Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Titans -8
O/U: 35
Linebuster!
My Pick: Titans -8. Tennessee wins big 31-10.
Result: Titans 34-10
I know it's just the Chiefs, but the ability to beat a team that you are supposed to beat is underrated. As far as I'm concerned, this proves that the Titans are for real. The only question is whether or not they can put up enough points to beat other solid teams in the AFC.

BAM!
San Diego Chargers @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Pk
O/U: 45
My Pick: Bills Pk. Buffalo's defense shows up, and helps them win 23-17.
Result: Bills 23-14
That's two in a row that I was within 3 points on the final score prediction...I have to take small victories, as I have most of the other games wrong this week. The Bills once again proved that they belong on the field with other good teams, and thankfully showed that the Arizona game was an anomaly. San Diego may have been looking ahead to the London game. I'm sure they'll end up in the playoffs, especially if Denver remains inconsistent.

Why must I do these things?
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Steelers -9.5
O/U: 35.5
My Pick: Bengals +9.5. Pittsburgh still wins 17-10.
Result: Steelers 38-10
I had this game called the other way, but changed my mind because it was such a large spread. Of course, with Fitzpatrick at QB, no spread is too large, and I should have realized that. Has anyone else noticed that Cincy's 2 TD drives in the last 2 weeks have been the last possession before halftime? Apparently Fitzpatrick sucks unless he's in the two minute drill. Strange. Somebody at Cincy needs to see that and put some scheme into place to make the QB think like it's always the two minute drill.

See? They're not that good...
Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -3
O/U: 36.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Ravens +3. Baltimore Bakes the Fish 20-14.
Result: Ravens 27-13
I knew Miami was overrated, and that the Baltimore D would give them problems. Miami will be tougher to pick in upcoming weeks, as they could be a problem for teams without a dominating D.

America's Choke Artists
Dallas Cowboys @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Cowboys -7
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Cowboys -7. I can't go against Big D coming off a loss. They win 34-13.
Result: Rams 34-14
That wasn't just a loss. That was a super bowl contender being destroyed in all facets of a football game by a team that recently got its first win. Dallas has some examining to do. No, Brad Johnson wasn't great, but if a team has the tools and the heart to go all the way, they should step up to the plate. That whole game can't be blamed on Johnson. Now I worry about picking them in the future. When will they snap out of it? And how good are the Rams under Haslett? Back to back wins over NFC East teams have me wondering about their abilities. Or did they just catch 2 good teams napping in a row?

I Quit
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -3
O/U: 38
Linebuster!
My Pick: Vikings +3. Minnesota just needs the win too badly. They'll get it 17-13.
Result: Bears 48-41
When the Bears and Vikings combine for 89 points, it's time to re-examine things. The only way I can look at this game is as an anomaly. There is little chance either of these teams will score that many points again this year, and there is little chance that either of these defenses will allow that many points again this year.

Looking Ahead?
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -3
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Saints +3. New Orleans gets it done 27-24.
Result: Panthers 30-7
I hope that this game was a result of the Saints looking ahead to London. Otherwise, I'll have to reconsider my view of the Panthers. My current thought is that they are good, not great, and that their offense will be inconsistent and have trouble against good D, though their D will usually be solid. New Orleans does not have good D. So I may still be right on them. The Saints need to step up if they see a playoff spot in their future...

Thank God For Safeties
San Francisco 49ers @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -10.5
O/U: 46
My Pick: Giants -10.5. New York needs this one. 34-20.
Result: Giants 29-17
Like in poker, luck often plays a part in beating the line. I have been crushed by plenty of late points already (see Tampa v. Seattle), so the safety against the 49ers that allowed the Giants to barely beat the spread was just a little retribution. The Giants will be ok, but will they be elite? Time will tell. I will say that it is possible...but something in my gut still says they aren't quite as good as people think.

Comeback!
Detroit Lions @ Houston Texans
Line: Houston -9
O/U: 46.5
My Pick: Lions +9. Houston still wins at home 23-17.
Result: Texans 28-21
When Houston jumped out to their huge lead early, I was worried. But those resilient Lions (yes, that's a joke) came back to beat the spread. Will the Lions win? Better question...Who will win first, the Lions or the Bengals? You might even throw in the Chiefs under "win again". Those three are really bad.

Bad Company
New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Jets -3
O/U: 41
Linebuster!
My Pick: Jets -3. New York in a blow out 31-13.
Result: Raiders 16-13 (ot)
What? The who beat the who led by who? Ouch. Favre was not sharp. The Jets O was not good. They'll turn it around next game, but you do not want to be placed into the category "teams beaten by the Raiders." That group is now the Jets and Chiefs.

Come ON.
Cleveland Browns @ Washington Redskins
Line: Redskins -7
O/U: 42
My Pick: Skins -7. Washington Needs This One 29-16.
Result: Skins 14-11
A win's a win. But still. If Washington wants to be elite, they cannot lose to the Rams and keep it close against the Browns. 14 points against Cleveland? That offense needs to improve markedly if the Redskins even want to make the playoffs. And yes, I know damn well that they're 5-2.

Inconsistency is always in the last place you look!
Indianapolis Colts @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Colts -2
O/U: 47
Linebuster!
My Pick: Colts -2. Indy wins 27-17.
Result: Packers 34-14
I really thought the Colts were back. After a big game against a great D, they had to beat the Packers. I guess not. Ryan Grant became non-useless all of a sudden, and the Colts are back on the wrong track. Will they snap out of it? We'll have to watch week by week.

Apathy
Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Bucs -10.5
O/U: 38
My Pick: Bucs -10.5. It's lot of points to give, but I like Garcia better than Griese. Bucs 27-10.
Result: Bucs 20-10
Apathy surrounded this game, and not just because the ALCS was in town. The Bucs D was great, and the offense knew it. After they got their 20-3 lead they phoned it in. Their goal was to run clock and take the win, which I cannot blame them for. But then Tampa allowed the late TD to the Seahawks, and allowed Seattle to beat the spread by 1/2 a point. Awful.

Huh?
Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -3
O/U: 48
My Pick: Broncos +3. I think Denver's offense will show up. They'll win 31-23.
Result: Pats 41-7
Holy Crap! As a Bills fan, I'm a bit worried that the Pats are back. Not back all the way of course, but selectively back. From here on out, take the Pats whenever they play one of the league's worst pass defenses, as Cassel can handle himself when not under any pressure. How good are they? Still not spectacular. Denver is very inconsistent, and has no D. Without Maroney, it'll be tough to keep better defenses from keying on the passing game. The Bills, hopefully, will be ok.