PREVIEW - WEEK FIVE

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 47
Linebuster!
After putting up a good fight against the Jags, Vegas has overestimated the consistency of the Houston Texans. They will have a letdown, and a talented Colts team coming off a bye week is a very tough opponent, even in the friendly confines of a hopefully open-roofed Reliant Stadium. The Texans would love to do it for the hurricane-ravaged home crowd. But they won't.
Colts -3. Indy comes out of the bye week ready to go. 33-13.

Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 34
After playing a decent Steeler team, the Ravens D is still #1. Tennessee has a stout D too, which will be tough for the 25th-ranked Ravens offense to penetrate. A hard-nosed, physical game revolving around rushing and field position would favor the Ravens. 4-0 is a bit lofty for the Titans' expectations, and M&T Bank Stadium is not an easy place to play.
Ravens +3. Baltimore wins a low scoring game 16-13.

San Diego Chargers @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Chargers -6.5
O/U: 45
Miami comes off the Bye with a ton of confidence after their upset of New England, and will face an underachieving San Diego team that needs a big win. At this point, I'm wondering if San Diego is playing flat, or is just plain bad. I think we'll find out this week. San Diego has to run the ball, and must be ready for anything on defense.
Chargers -6.5. San Diego won't run away with it, but should win by a touchdown, 27-20.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -9.5
O/U: 38.5
Kansas City has stayed close to the two "better" teams they have played...a 7 point loss to New England, and a big win over the Broncos. They have been crushed by lesser opponents Atlanta and Oakland. Carolina qualifies as a "better" team, but has a comeback win over Chicago, a late win over the Chargers, and a solid win over Atlanta. Carolina's tendency to allow games to stay close, combined with the league's #19 rush defense against a rejuvenated Larry Johnson, make Kansas City an attractive pick. Plus a lot of the big spreads in prior weeks haven't been covered.
Chiefs +9.5. Kansas City loses, but only by a touchdown 24-17.

Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -6
O/U: 42.5
Yeah, the Skins beat the Boys. But can they have a repeat performance against the Eagles? Both teams have solid defenses, but their pass defense stats don't look as good. Advantage Eagles. Shawn Springs is questionable (calf), and even if he plays, may be bothered by it. Advantage Eagles. Westbrook (still questionable - ankle) practiced Wednesday. Advantage Eagles. I'm also not sure if the Jason Campbell offense is going to be consistently good, or will just have a few good games.
Eagles -6. McNabb atones for last week in Chicago. Philly wins 27-17

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
Line: Bears -3.5
O/U: 44.5
The Lions are coming off a bye week, and are going to be a lot better...nah, I'm just kidding, they're still atrocious. Chicago is alright, but I'm not sure if they're going to show up and hold on. This could be one of the few (very few...) games Detroit wins this year, especially being at home.
Lions +3.5. This is probably crazy, but it's a gut feeling. Detroit 23-17.

Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers
Line: None
O/U: None
Green Bay has the #26 rush defense (by ypg) in the league, and Atlanta has the league's #1 rushing attack. That does not bode well for the Pack, even if Aaron Rodgers does play. And if he plays and re-injures himself, he has no real backup. Plus the Falcons are the team that marched into Lambeau a few years ago in the playoffs and won, so they may not be intimidated by the Green Bay faithful. Then again, it's the Falcons. And the Pack needs redemption after last week. Vegas is waiting for news on Aaron Rodgers before they post a line. I'll go with the Packers on any line under -5. I'm sure Vegas will end up somewhere around Green Bay -3. Packers win 24-17.

Seattle Seahawks @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -7
O/U: 43.5
I think it's a travesty that the Giants became #1 in the ESPN power rankings after the Cowboys lost, as I'm not yet convinced that they are an elite squad. A close win over the Redskins, an OT win over the Bengals, and a blowout of the Rams do not equal #1 in the league. That said, the Seahawks are not doing so well. But with Plaxico out, and the recent history of this series to consider, I'm going to take Seattle. Plus the Giants aren't that good at home (for some reason), and teams with big spread haven't been covering too often.
Seahawks +7. New York still wins a ball control, rush-heavy game 23-20.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -3
O/U: 48
Linebuster!
Tampa played well against Green Bay, but with Denver coming off of an embarassing loss, I'll bet they're ready to put up a big number at home. Tampa's 21st-ranked pass defense just won't be good enough to stop Cutler. Granted, Denver's D won't stop Tampa either, but they won't need to.
Broncos -3. Denver needs a big win and gets it 37-24.

New England Patriots @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: Pats -3
O/U: 41.5
Linebuster!
It actually hurts me to think that the once mighty Patriots are only favored by 3 against the lowly 49ers. Of course, this is Vegas overcompensating for the Pats poor performance against Miami. They've had a week off to think about it, and should be back on track.
Pats -3. San Fran's Gettin' Rolled 30-10.

Buffalo Bills @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cards -1
O/U: 44.5
Linebuster!
Wow. The 4-0 Bills are an underdog in Arizona? What? This is a weird season. Without a 34 point lead, I'm guessing the Bills won't collapse defensively for the entire second half and allow 35 points. Though I don't expect Arizona to turn the ball over anywhere near as much as they did last week, they still shouldn't win. Buffalo is a solid team, on both sides of the ball, and will hopefully use their underdog status as motivation.
Bills +1. Buffalo beats the birds 27-17.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -17
O/U: 44
Linebuster!
The spread on this game is ridiculous, but I can't disagree with it. The Cowboys are at home, and have to be annoyed that their offense was held down so well by the Skins. Plus Romo likes to have fun, which makes the team less likely to come out flat. Heck, he's just out in the yard, throwing the ball to his buddies. Cincy's pass defense is actually #4 in the league, but two of their games were against the Browns and Ravens, who wouldn't put up big passing numbers against St. Mary's School for the Blind. Also, Dallas hasn't been good defensively, and this is a prime opportunity for redemption. Cincy stinks.
Dallas -17. Really. It'll be that bad. Cowboys 37-10.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jags -4
O/U: 36
Will anyone score in this game? Pittsburgh has the league's 2nd ranked D, but can't seem to get much going offensively. With Parker back, they ought to be able to run the ball a bit, though. And Jacksonville has really been unimpressive thus far in the season.
Steelers +4. Big Ben and the Steelers O does just enough to win. Pittsburgh 17-16.

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -3
O/U: 46.5
The New Orleans defense has been less than impressive, but seems to be able to get a stop when they desperately need one. The O has been great, but didn't really involve Reggie Bush at all last week. They'll need him to beat a much better Minnesota D. Unfortunately for them, Minnesota is desperate for a win. The last time they were this desperate, they beat the Saints' NFC South foe Carolina.
Vikings +3. Don't bet against desperation. Minnesota 27-23.