Thursday, October 23, 2008

PREVIEW - WEEK EIGHT

Oakland Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -7
O/U: 36
West Coast teams traveling eastward have been having problems all season long, and I don't expect it to change here. Baltimore's shut down D won't allow much, and Oakland will have a tough time stopping a Baltimore team that really likes to grind it out, especially at home. The only question is whether or not 7 points is too many. The Ravens don't score much, and Oakland has been keeping teams close lately. But with the trip East and the smash-mouth style of the Ravens, I think they'll get it done.
Ravens -7. Baltimore wins 17-3.

San Diego Chargers @ New Orleans Saints (Wembley Stadium, London)
Line: Chargers -3
O/U: 46
New Orleans is #1 in the league in pass yards per game, and the San Diego D is the worst in the NFL at stopping the pass. San Diego also has more time zones to deal with during their trip, though both teams got to London early in the week, so it shouldn't be an issue. San Diego has been playing much better lately, and I hate to go against them in a game they desperately need. New Orleans' D isn't all that special either, and with Reggie Bush out and no real threat of a running game, the Chargers will be able to key on the pass, and may actually stop it.
Chargers -3. San Diego gets it done across the pond in a shootout 34-24.

Kansas City Chiefs @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -13
O/U: 39
The Jets played awful last week, but Kansas City has been awful on the road. Without LJ and with no real QB (top 2 QBs on IR, out for season...ouch!), the Chiefs are going nowhere. 13 is a lot, but can the Chiefs score at all with the personnel they have on the field? No. No they cannot.
Jets -13. Favre has a big game and leads the Jets to a win 27-6.

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Bills -1.5
O/U: 42
Linebuster!
Miami proved last week that they have been overrated. Any good defense will be ready for Miami's wildcat plays, and I just don't think they'll beat the Bills D without some trickeration. Edwards continues to grow into a very solid passer, and I think he'll have another consistently good game at Miami. It's the Bills' first foray into the division, and their first chance to prove that it's their division to lose.
Bills -1.5. Buffalo circles the wagons (what does that even mean?) 24-16.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -1.5
O/U: 40.5
Linebuster!
The Dallas D has been terrible, Romo is still out, and everything is falling apart for the evil empire. Tampa is a hell of a football team, and without continuity on offense, the Cowboys will struggle to get anything moving on O. Tampa will be able to move the ball against a Dallas D that allowed WAY too many points to St. Louis last week. This is a very plausible upset pick.
Bucs +1.5. Tampa really is that good. 27-23.

Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -9
O/U: 45.5
Brian Westbrook will likely be back for this game, which may allow the Eagles' Offense to get back in sync. Matt Ryan has been great, but the Eagles are one of the league's premier defenses, and he is likely to face a lot of pressure. The Bears' mistake against Atlanta was not generating enough of a pass rush. The Eagles won't make that same mistake. Michael Turner will be limited by the Eagles, and Ryan won't beat them. Now that teams have to gear up for Westbrook, a lot more passing lanes should open up, and the Eagles' O will be able to put up big numbers. 9 is a lot, especially against a team like Atlanta, who I respect a great deal this year. But the Eagles can be VERY good when they want to be. I think they want to be.
Eagles -9. Philly comes out of the bye strong 34-20.

St. Louis Rams @ New England Patriots
Line: Pats -7
O/U: 43.5
The Rams have been beating good teams, but I think the Pats at home will prove to be too much for them. The St. Louis pass defense isn't much better than Denver's, and we saw what Cassel did to them. This game should be a blowout, but with this year's Pats, you never know.
Pats -7. New England will show up. 31-17.

Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -4
O/U: 43.5
No West coast teams have come East and won...and Arizona has accounted for two of the losses already. I'd like to go with the Cards, but they don't travel well. Carolina has a great pass D (#2 in NFL) which might give the league's #2 passing offense some problems, and Arizona hasn't been running the ball very well. Of course, there is the whole "don't go against teams coming off the bye week" thing, but I prefer to go with the travel stat.
Panthers -4. The Panthers send Arizona back to the desert unhappy. 23-17.

Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions
Line: Redskins -7.5
O/U: 42
Linebuster!
Normally I would like this game, as the Redskins could use a big win, and the Lions are terrible. The problem is that the Redskins needed a big win last week, and the Browns are terrible, yet they only won by 3. And since they won, they may not be as motivated to crush the Lions. This game comes down to Dan Orlovsky against the Redskins D. If he can get the Lions into the endzone a couple times, they might beat the spread. Who am I kidding? The Redskins D is solid. And if ever there was a team against whom the Skins could score some points, it's the Lions.
Redskins -7.5. The Skins pile it on. Finally. 27-9.

Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jaguars -7
O/U: 42
Coming off a bye, the Jaguars may have enough in the tank to blow by the Browns. But Cleveland has started to play much better, and Jacksonville really hasn't pulled away from anyone yet this season. They just don't score enough points to blow anyone out.
Browns +7. Jacksonville still wins 24-20.

New York Giants @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -2.5
O/U: 42.5
Linebuster!
I still don't think the Giants are as good as everyone thinks. The Steelers have taken over the title of league's best D from the Ravens, and as long as Big Ben doesn't shoot himself in the foot, the offense should move the ball against the G-men. The game is in Steeltown, too.
Steelers -2.5. The Black and Gold stomps Big Blue 27-21.

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -5
O/U: 41
This game is another tough one to call, because with a new head coach the 49ers could implode, or like the Rams, could get better. Seattle is still without Hasslebeck, which means they won't score too many points. San Fran has put up decent numbers, even in losses, against much better defenses than Seattle's.
49ers -5. Sorry Seattle, but the turmoil continues. San Fran 30-17.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -9.5
O/U: 44.5
Wow. The Texans have won 2 in a row, and are favored big again! Talk about an easy stretch on the schedule. Last week I was right to think the winless Lions would at least stay competitive with Houston. Without Palmer again, though, I don't think the Bengals can keep it competitive. They'll get 2 field goals, and a late touchdown in the first half during the two minute drill, which is the only time in the game when Fitzpatrick is effective.
Houston -9.5. The league's #5 offense (I know, right?) gets it done 27-13.

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -4
O/U: 41
Linebuster!
Will the Colts show up? We saw what can happen when they decide to play when they ran over the Ravens a few weeks ago. If they play their best, they can hand the Titans their first loss of the season. The Ravens had a good D, and the Colts destroyed it. Will they do the same against Tennessee? This is a must-win for Indy, and they should be prepared for it, as it is a conference game against the best team in the AFC. You don't overlook games like that. Keep in mind that the Ravens nearly beat the Titans a few weeks back, and the Colts crushed the Ravens. Though that usually has no bearing, in this case it shows that the Titans are beatable, and that the Colts do have a chance.
Colts +4. It's Indy's time to step up. They're desperate. 27-23.

Byes: CHI, GB, DEN, MIN

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