RECAP - WEEK FIVE

This Week: 3-8-2 (34-36-3)
Linebusters: 2-2-1 (10-14-1)
Straight Picks (w/o spread): 7-6 (43-30)

I give up. This is ridiculous. All of a sudden, Cincy gets better, KC and Seattle get even worse, the Eagles disappear, and Buffalo looks like last year's team. This season is pissing me off.

A Bad State of Affairs in Indy
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 47
Linebuster!
My Pick: Colts -3. Indy comes out of the bye week ready to go. 33-13.
Result: Colts 31-27
Yeah, I'm right. Yeah, the Colts won. But they realistically shouldn't have, and Indy has plenty to be worried about. The Pats lost a marquee player, and have an excuse for futility. Why are the Colts so bad? Even their passing game, the one thing you'd expect to be good, even if all else is failing, just isn't clicking. It's going to be a long season if they don't get it together.

Beatable
Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 34
My Pick: Ravens +3. Baltimore wins a low scoring game 16-13.
Result: Titans 13-10
I almost called it...I'll settle for a tie. Baltimore would have likely gotten this win if not for the bad personal foul call on the final Titan drive. Granted, the Ravens still had ample opportunity to stop them thereafter, so they don't have anyone to blame but themselves. Both are solid teams, but the Ravens will be limited this season by their inability to get much going offensively.

Just how good are the fish?
San Diego Chargers @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Chargers -6.5
O/U: 45
My Pick: Chargers -6.5. San Diego won't run away with it, but should win by a touchdown, 27-20.
Result: Dolphins 17-10
I almost went the other way on this pick, and obviously wish I had. It's tough to figure these teams out. Is the San Diego offense the problem, or is the Dolphin defense actually good? Neither of these teams have performed consistently one way or the other, and thus are tough to predict. At least I can now honestly believe that the Chargers really are that bad.

Oh come on...
Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -9.5
O/U: 38.5
My Pick: Chiefs +9.5. Kansas City loses, but only by a touchdown 24-17.
Result: Panthers 34-0
So the Chiefs are going to show up when they feel like it, and just completely fold every other week. What the hell? Making matters worse, I put in a fantasy waiver to claim Deangelo Williams this past week, but withdrew it because he hasn't been performing. Lovely.

Yikes
Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -6
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Eagles -6. McNabb atones for last week in Chicago. Philly wins 27-17
Result: Skins 23-17
I was all over the Skins bandwagon pre-season, but their awful last 2 weeks of preseason ball combined with the week 1 loss to the Giants pushed me away. Just when I forget why I liked them so much, they march into Dallas and Philly in consecutive weeks and get wins. They are a force to contend with in the league's best division, and the Cowboys and Giants need to watch out, because there may not be enough playoff berths to go around. After the first 2 games, I thought Philly was going to contend for the playoffs, but now I'm back to my preseason pick that they would be #4 in the NFC East. It's just too good of a conference.

I knew better...
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
Line: Bears -3.5
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Lions +3.5. This is probably crazy, but it's a gut feeling. Detroit 23-17.
Result: Bears 34-7
Ok, so it was definitely crazy. But you can't argue with the notion that the Lions have to win at some point. I was just trying to jump the gun. I guess I'll just let it happen, and if it costs me a game, so be it. I'm not exactly posting a great win percentage anyway. The Bears are great when their defense holds up. It's the comebacks they've allowed that should worry Chicago fans.

Dammit
Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers
Line: None
O/U: None
My Pick: Green Bay -3. Packers win 24-17.
Result: Falcons 27-24
I had this called, and changed it after getting some "sage" advice. From now on, I'll stick to my gut. The Packers' rush defense is suspect, and the Falcons can beat most teams in the league if they are allowed to rush effectively.

Past vs. Present
Seattle Seahawks @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -7
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Seahawks +7. New York still wins a ball control, rush-heavy game 23-20.
Result: Giants 44-6
The last four meetings between these teams were close. This one wasn't. Seattle's defense got shredded, without Plaxico, and their offense did nothing. The Giants came out of the Bye looking way better than I thought they did before it. They put up 41 against a terrible Rams D, but dropped 44 on what was supposed to be an OK Seattle D. Much more impressive. Again, that NFC East is a battleground right now.

Where has all the Offense Gone?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Denver Broncos
Line: Broncos -3
O/U: 48
Linebuster!
My pick: Broncos -3. Denver needs a big win and gets it 37-24.
Result: Broncos 16-13
Denver's D was good in this game, but is still terrible in the grand scheme of things. The real worry is that the offense is gone for the Broncos. Their D won't win them many games, so they'll have to get Cutler back on track quickly to take advantage of the Chargers' stumbles. Tampa is still a good team, but is somewhat the reverse of the Broncos. Their offense won't win them many games, so they need to rely on the defense. Holding the Broncos to 16 is pretty darn good, but they need a little more offensive support.

Cassel can Throw the Deep Ball!
New England Patriots @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: Pats -3
O/U: 41.5
Linebuster!
My Pick:Pats -3. San Fran's Gettin' Rolled 30-10.
Result: Pats 30-21
Good enough. Cassel showed he can hit Moss deep, which is very important to stretch out defenses in the future. The D was alright, and the Pats are still afloat. San Fran is just about what you'd expect. They'll beat some teams they weren't supposed to, like Seattle, but should finish with only 5 or 6 wins.

So...does this mean that at 4-1 the Bills are Somehow Screwed?
Buffalo Bills @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cards -1
O/U: 44.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Bills +1. Buffalo beats the birds 27-17.
Result: Cards 41-17
Yeah, it's tough to overcome your starting QB getting knocked out on the 3rd snap of the ballgame, but I expected far more from the Buffalo Defense. They did not stop the Birds ONCE in the first half (TD, TD, TD, FG in 4 drives). They weren't exactly stellar after the break, either. Losman was OK in relief of Edwards, but I feel like all he's good for is throwing the deep ball. Buffalo also turned the ball over far too much. Arizona is great when they win the turnover battle, and should have smooth sailing to an NFC West title.

Seriously? It's the Bengals, guys...
Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -17
O/U: 44
Linebuster!
My Pick: Dallas -17. Really. It'll be that bad. Cowboys 37-10.
Result: Dallas 31-22
Why can't the Dallas defense step up to the plate and play like they have the potential to play? Cincy shouldn't be scoring 22 points on them. Yeah, it was a ridiculous spread, and I should have never gone with it. Now I know better.

Well, I got one Upset Right
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jags -4
O/U: 36
My Pick: Steelers +4. Big Ben and the Steelers O does just enough to win. Pittsburgh 17-16.
Result: Steelers 26-21
You had to know this would be close. I gave the Steelers the benefit of the doubt because the Jacksonville offense can't get much going through the air this year, and the Steelers have a great rushing defense. The Jags are in trouble, as are the Colts. If the Titans run away with the division, both teams will be looking for wild cards. With the Chargers and Broncos fighting out west, the Bills and Pats likely dueling in the East, and the Steelers and Ravens both looking good, those wild card spots will be tough to come by.

Thanks Marty!
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -3
O/U: 46.5
My Pick: Vikings +3. Don't bet against desperation. Minnesota 27-23.
Result: Vikings 30-27
Martin Gramatica's late miss of a 46-yard field goal enabled the Vikings to pull it out. Kudos to the Saints defense, which held AP in check all game. The Vikings D wasn't bad either...most of the Saints' points were on special teams! These are two pretty good 2-3 teams, and both will be trying to make a playoff push. I'm not sure if either will make it, but both have the capability to beat very good teams.