Thursday, November 26th:
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
Line: Packers -11
O/U: 47.5
Detroit couldn't even score the last time these two teams met, and with health questions surrounding Stafford and Calvin Johnson, I don't foresee an offensive explosion. The Thanksgiving holiday gives the Lions a little more to play for, but the 6-4 Packers are still in the playoff hunt. The loss to Tampa hurts; this loss would cripple them. I don't think they'll be looking past this game at all, and a Packers team playing its best should destroy a beat-up Lions squad.
My Pick: Packers -11. Green Bay is eating Lion for Thanksgiving. 33-10.
Oakland Raiders @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -13.5
O/U: 40
Dallas is 0-6 against the Raiders at home since 1983. Doesn't that seem ridiculous? Dallas has also been playing down to opponents this season, and despite the opposing quarterback being Bruce Gradkowski, if they can't score, the Cowboys won't win by 14. On the bright side, Dallas' offense is clearly better than it has been playing, and just needs a push to get back on track. Playing Oakland on Thanksgiving may be all the push they need. Oakland won their 3rd game of the year last week, and has been blown out the week after each of their first 2 wins. I think it is time for Dallas to break out of its funk. Sorry football fans; I think both turkey day games will be over by halftime...
My Pick: Cowboys -13.5. Dallas carves up the Raiders 35-13.
New York Giants @ Denver Broncos
Line: Giants -6.5
O/U: 42
We'll try my Broncos strategy one more time, as this is the type of game for which it was intended. New York recently lost 4 straight and required overtime last week to break out of their funk. Despite an under-performing defense and a lack of experience at wide receiver, the Giants should dismantle a struggling Denver team that has lost 4 straight after a 6-0 start. The Broncos are doing everything they can right now to miss the playoffs, and I think the Giants will oblige them by winning in the Mile High City. The Denver defense has been awful lately (the Redskins scored 27 on them...), and I think the Giants will win by plenty. But my picking strategy says they won't.
My Pick: Broncos +6.5. New York wins a squeaker 23-20.
Sunday, November 29th:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -12
O/U: 46
Clearly the Falcons need the win, but I'm not sure it will be a blowout. First of all, Michael Turner still isn't a definite, and even if he plays I have to assume he'll get limited carries. Second, the Bucs were playing confident football before last week's predictable blowout loss to the Saints. The Falcons showed in San Fran that they are capable of putting up a ton of points and completely obliterating an opponent, but will it happen this week? The trends say no, as Atlanta is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 at home against Tampa, and the Bucs have covered 4 straight overall against the Falcons. I worry about the Bucs' 32nd-ranked run D against a solid rushing attack, but they almost beat Miami, so I have to believe they're getting better.
My Pick: Buccaneers +12. Atlanta wins 27-19.
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Dolphins -3
O/U: 40
The Bills may be my team, but they aren't playing very good football right now. They'll play hard against the rival Fins, but Miami has looked awfully solid lately. If Buffalo can stop Williams and get a few INTs from Henne, they'll have a shot. But Buffalo's run D is awful. Only Tampa is worse.
My Pick: Dolphins -3. Miami wins 17-13.
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 38
This is a big trap game for Indy, as the Texans are actually pretty good. Had the spread been a little larger, I might have picked the Texans. The problem is that Houston has won only one of 14 games against Indy in the short history of the franchise, and it is likely that if Indy wins, it will be by more than 3. I know Indy won by 1 and 2 in consecutive weeks, and is likely a bit tired after 2 really tough games, but the Texans are tired, too. That Monday nighter against Tennessee was hard-fought, and Houston spared no energy, physically or emotionally, in an attempt to win it. I like the Texans, and if they win I won't be shocked, but I think the odds of Indy winning by at least 3 are much larger than the odds of Houston covering. Also keep in mind that these teams have played 8 straight Overs.
My Pick: Colts -3. Indy escapes with a 27-23 victory.
Carolina Panthers @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -3
O/U: 41.5
Carolina is 3-1 ATS in their last 4 against the Jets, but I wonder if they can generate much offensively without Steve Smith being involved in the offense, as he'll no doubt be marked by Revis throughout this game. Both teams are wildly inconsistent, but I have to trust DelHomme and the Panthers run game over rookie QB Mark Sanchez and a Jets run D that just keeps getting worse.
My Pick: Panthers +3. Carolina wins 20-17.
Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -9
O/U: 41.5
The first time these teams met, Philly won by 10. But they relied almost solely on the big play, actually losing the time of possession battle by 3 minutes despite winning the game by plenty. They were completely shut out by the Redskins' defense in the second half, and it is possible that the Redskins, who lead the league in pass defense, will be able to draw upon that success to hold down the Eagles offense once again. The Eagles need the win, but I don't think it will be easy.
My Pick: Redskins +9. Philadelphia wins 20-14.
Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Seahawks -3
O/U: 42.5
With Bulger out, I can't believe the spread on this game is only three. Kyle Boller is a capable backup, but the Rams were shut out 28-0 in Seattle in week one. What makes this game different? Seattle is playing for pride, as they were supposed to be much better than they have proven to be. I expect them to be prepared.
My Pick: Seahawks -3. Seattle wins easily 27-10.
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -14
O/U: 39
So will we see the Cincy team that plays down to lesser opponents, or the one that plays exceptionally well within the division? It took overtime for them to beat the Browns last time. After tough losses last week, I expect both teams to play hard, and Cincy at its best should crush Cleveland at its best. But Cincy has only won ONE game by at least 14 points all year; I can't pick them to cover such a big spread.
My Pick: Browns +14. Cincy wins 24-13.
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -13.5
O/U: 45
How good has San Diego been lately? They're finally playing like the team everyone expected them to be. So it only follows that they're due for a letdown. No, not a loss, but certainly a close battle against a division opponent who has developed a ton of confidence of their own the past few weeks. Did you know KC has beaten the spread 3 weeks straight? No Larry Johnson, no problem! And KC is also 5-2 ATS in their last 7 against SD, so I'm not exactly going out on a limb with this one.
My Pick: Chiefs +13.5. Chargers win 23-17.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -3
O/U: 41.5
It annoys me that Jacksonville appears in the playoff picture right now. They are not good, and have beaten only bad teams. Houston and Tennessee are the exceptions, but both were playing poorly at the time they faced the Jags. This team lost to SEATTLE 41-0. Enough Said. San Fran started off great, but has quickly fallen back to earth. The Jags won the only 2 prior meetings in this series, but I think San Fran is primed for a run in the NFC West. If they're going to contend, they have to start winning now.
My Pick: 49ers -3. San Fran wins 23-9.
Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 46
I am actually a little surprised that Tennessee is favored, even at home. Arizona has been very solid on the road this season. I guess the oddsmakers realize that this Titans team is very different from the one that began the season. The Cards have covered every road spread thus far except for last week, when Warner was injured. He's back, and I expect them to play well. But at 7-3, they're a bit of a surprise even to me, and I can't see them finishing much better than 10-6, which means they'll need to lose 3 more times. They'll lose to Minny, and maybe Green Bay, but they should win the rest. So winning this game would put them in position to win at least 11 games, which would be shocking. Tennessee knows they need to win out to have a snowball's chance in hell of making the playoffs, and as such, have much more to play for. I hate to bet on the continued success of Vince Young, but he has looked pretty good so far. I think he just needed the Titans to scheme the offense around him, rather than to throw him, a uniquely mobile quarterback, into a scheme designed for more of a pocket passer. Ever since he's been "the guy", the Titans are 4-0.
My Pick: Cardinals +3. Tennessee finally hands Arizona a road loss 23-21.
Chicago Bears @ MInnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -10.5
O/U: 47
The Vikings have been great, the Bears have been terrible. The pressure the Vikings can bring (#1 in sacks) will hurt Cutler, and I expect him to throw a few INTs. Favre has the best passer rating in the NFL, and I don't see a depleted Bears defense stopping him, especially at home. It may also be a blessing in disguise that they're not undeafeated, as this might be a different game with that hanging over their head.
My Pick: Vikings -10.5. Minnesota wins big again 34-17.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: N/A
O/U: N/A
There is no line because oddsmakers are still worried about Big Ben's probability of playing. I think he'll be in there. If I could bet on someone dying instead of the final score, I might go for that. This is going to be another nasty, hard-hitting, animosity-filled Steelers-Ravens game. The fact that Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are a little banged up might not matter much, but it is the one thing I might actually be able to use to decide who will win. Then again, if the line comes out in Pittsburgh's favor, the Ravens are always a solid pick as a home underdog.
My Pick: Steelers 17-13.
Monday, November 30th:
New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -3
O/U: 56
This is the game everyone has been waiting for. Including the Saints. Do you think they live in a bubble? Of course not. They know that everyone expects them to go undefeated if they can get by the Pats. They've got nothing to look past this game to, and are a stellar home team. They will do everything they can to win. The Pats are thinking about this battle the same way, but I honestly think the Saints are better if both teams play with passion. And New Orleans is 6-1 ATS the last 7 times they've faced the Pats.
My Pick: Saints -3. New Orleans wins a point fest 38-34.
Thursday, November 26, 2009
Monday, November 23, 2009
NFL Week Eleven Recap
Overall SU: 105-55 (11-5 wk 11)
Week 11 ATS: 11-5
Overall ATS: 77-82-1
Can't Stop Ricky, Eh?
Miami Dolphins @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Carolina -3
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Panthers -3. Carolina wins at home 24-13.
Result: Dolphins 24-17
All Carolina had to do was stop Ricky. They failed. The Panthers are awfully inconsistent, making them a tough team to pick. From now on, I will only consider them a potential victor if their opponent is a passing team, as their pass D is stellar. And apparently their run D is useless.
Still Unbeaten
Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Colts -1
O/U: 44
My Pick: Colts -1. Indy wins 24-20.
Result: Colts 17-15
It wasn't pretty, but the Colts once again showed that they simply know how to win. It's no surprise when they win shootouts, but if they're winning defensive games, the Colts are very, very dangerous.
Back on Track
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Saints -11
O/U: 51
My Pick: Saints -11. New Orleans gets back into the 40's...42-17.
Result: Saints 38-7
It may not have started out spectacular, but the Saints turned things around and got the blowout. Now we'll see what they're truly made of, as the Pats venture into the Bayou for a Monday night showdown.
Just what I expected...but not without Turner!
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -6.5
O/U: 46
My Pick: Falcons +6.5. New York still wins 21-17.
Result: Giants 34-31 (ot)
I expected it to be close, but not without Michael Turner. Credit Ryan for getting the Falcons all the way out of a 14 point hole before finally succumbing to the Giants in OT. Atlanta may end up being the best team left out of the playoffs, but I wouldn't count them out just yet. 9-7 isn't a stretch, but 10-6 will be tough. If they can get to the 10-win mark, they may sneak in.
More rest for Brett
Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -10.5
O/U: 46
My Pick: Vikings -10.5. Minny wins 31-13.
Result: Vikings 35-9
It's no surprise that the Vikes got another home blowout, but it is a bit shockingly lucky that they have now been able to rest Brett Favre a little bit in consecutive games. That little bit of reprieve could be huge, especially on Brett's aged body, when the playoffs come around. A rested Favre makes the Vikings a different team. Everyone expected him to get hurt or tire out by the playoffs, but if he is healthy and rested, the Vikings are a MAJOR contender.
Ouch
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Steelers -10
O/U: 40
My Pick: Steelers -10. Pittsburgh rolls 33-10.
Result: Chiefs 27-24 (ot)
The Steelers' offense is having problems, and without Polamalu, the defense is a totally different animal. Letting teams back into games is not a problem the Steelers used to have. All of a sudden they can't hold a 10 point lead against a crappy team. Pittsburgh isn't just in danger of not repeating as champs; they could miss the postseason entirely if they don't get healthy and start playing better soon.
TO Did Something!
Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jaguars -9
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Bills +9. Buffalo wins outright 17-16.
Result: Jaguars 18-15
I was right in the ballpark on final score...I just picked the wrong team! Jacksonville may be the worst 6-4 football team I have ever seen, and their inclusion in the postseason would be insane. They'll start losing soon, and everyone will forget that they were over .500 through 11 games (after next week...).
Comeback Kids!
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -6.5
O/U: 42
My Pick: 49ers +6.5. Green Bay still wins 16-13.
Result: Packers 30-24
This is now the second time San Fran has come out of the gates slowly but come back late to beat the spread (@HOU). Nice of them to help me out. It is, however, disappointing for them to be 4-7 after the way they looked the first few weeks of the season. Both San Fran and the Jets were big surprises early, and now both are right back where everyone expected them to be. Green Bay is suddenly in the playoff hunt, and could get in if they keep beating the teams they're supposed to beat. It would be fitting if they missed out by one game, though. (In other words, the loss at Tampa keeps them out...)
Best Game of the Week!
Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions
Line: Lions -3.5
O/U: 38.5
My Pick: Browns +3.5. Detroit wins 13-10.
Result: Lions 38-37
No one expected this game to be interesting in any way, but after the Browns got out to a 21 point lead just to see the Lions come back, things got quite interesting. And then the game ended, quite fittingly in my opinion, with a pass interference call deciding the outcome. You know, just to remind us that we were, in fact, watching the Lions play the Browns.
2 Almost shutouts in a row!
Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -11
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Redskins +11. Dallas wins 23-13.
Result: Cowboys 7-6
It was unbelievable that the Dallas offense came out of the gates that unprepared after scoring only 7 points last week, also late in the game, against Green Bay. I wanted to see them get shut out, but I guess a 1-point win over a crappy team at home fits in well with the Dallas season thus far. I can't wait to see how they blow their division lead!
Injuries Kill Spread Picks
Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Cardinals -9
O/U: 46.5
My Pick: Cardinals -9. Arizona rolls 38-17.
Result: Cardinals 21-13
You can't predict injuries. If Warner stayed in, the Cards would have scored at least once more, and would have beaten the spread. Oh well.
Stupid Strategy
San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos
Line: N/A
O/U: N/A
My Pick: Broncos win 31-24.
Result: Chargers 32-3
I'm not even going to look up the spread. It's obvious that the Chargers beat whatever it turned out to be. After the previous week, I had to go back to my opposite-picking strategy with Denver. After this week, I may have to rethink things.
Oh Come On...
Cincinnati Bengals @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Bengals -9.5
O/U: 36
My Pick: Bengals -9.5. Cincy wins 28-6.
Result: Raiders 20-17
Cincy should be ashamed. And I'm sure they are. For some reason, they can beat really good teams, yet have trouble with lesser ones. Their losses are to Denver, Houston, and Oakland. I'll bet none of them make the playoffs (HOU has best chance of the 3...).
What happens when you run into Angry Pats?
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -10.5
O/U: 45
My Pick: Pats -10.5. New England crushes the Jets 38-14.
Result: Patriots 31-14
The Pats were mad that Belichick was put through the wringer for his 4th and 2 call last week against the Colts. They were also pissed that the Jets beat them in week 2. What does that add up to for New York? A whoopin. And that's what happened. It got a little closer than I expected after a 24-0 start, but the Pats did just enough to keep it a blowout. If they get past the Saints, New England won't lose again in the regular season. And if they face the Colts in the playoffs, I have a feeling there will be some animosity involved. It'll be a great game if it happens.
Vick wins another Dog Fight
Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears
Line: Eagles -3
O/U: 45
My Pick: Eagles -3. Philly wins 24-17.
Result: Eagles 24-20
Ok, fine, Vick didn't "win" the game, but he was involved, so I took the liberty of using the eye-catching title. This game was a good old-fashioned dog fight, and it was a shame someone had to lose. In the end, it was the team that couldn't find the endzone and had to settle for 4 field goals that lost, and rightfully so. I love the use of Vick in 3rd and 1 situations, and I hope Andy Reid will continue to do it, as it immediately makes the Eagles one of the better short yardage teams in the league simply by opening up a plethora of options on those plays. I should also note that DeSean Jackson's 48-yard touchdown catch was his shortest of the year. Of SEVEN. Wow.
Can They Get To Ten?
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -4.5
O/U: 48
My Pick: Titans +4.5. Tennessee wins outright 24-20.
Result: Titans 20-17
Tennessee looks like a completely different team. And Houston is no slouch. Their inability to score in the last two minutes of the game is troubling, but if the defense plays solid and the offense continues to hold onto the ball, they should finish 9-7 or better and possibly sneak into the postseason. When betting Tennessee from now on, you must consider them as they were last season. This team has found its way and will give every opponent trouble unless Vince Young has a bad game (which is always possible). He looked awfully good on Monday Night, though.
Week 11 ATS: 11-5
Overall ATS: 77-82-1
Can't Stop Ricky, Eh?
Miami Dolphins @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Carolina -3
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Panthers -3. Carolina wins at home 24-13.
Result: Dolphins 24-17
All Carolina had to do was stop Ricky. They failed. The Panthers are awfully inconsistent, making them a tough team to pick. From now on, I will only consider them a potential victor if their opponent is a passing team, as their pass D is stellar. And apparently their run D is useless.
Still Unbeaten
Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Colts -1
O/U: 44
My Pick: Colts -1. Indy wins 24-20.
Result: Colts 17-15
It wasn't pretty, but the Colts once again showed that they simply know how to win. It's no surprise when they win shootouts, but if they're winning defensive games, the Colts are very, very dangerous.
Back on Track
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Saints -11
O/U: 51
My Pick: Saints -11. New Orleans gets back into the 40's...42-17.
Result: Saints 38-7
It may not have started out spectacular, but the Saints turned things around and got the blowout. Now we'll see what they're truly made of, as the Pats venture into the Bayou for a Monday night showdown.
Just what I expected...but not without Turner!
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -6.5
O/U: 46
My Pick: Falcons +6.5. New York still wins 21-17.
Result: Giants 34-31 (ot)
I expected it to be close, but not without Michael Turner. Credit Ryan for getting the Falcons all the way out of a 14 point hole before finally succumbing to the Giants in OT. Atlanta may end up being the best team left out of the playoffs, but I wouldn't count them out just yet. 9-7 isn't a stretch, but 10-6 will be tough. If they can get to the 10-win mark, they may sneak in.
More rest for Brett
Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -10.5
O/U: 46
My Pick: Vikings -10.5. Minny wins 31-13.
Result: Vikings 35-9
It's no surprise that the Vikes got another home blowout, but it is a bit shockingly lucky that they have now been able to rest Brett Favre a little bit in consecutive games. That little bit of reprieve could be huge, especially on Brett's aged body, when the playoffs come around. A rested Favre makes the Vikings a different team. Everyone expected him to get hurt or tire out by the playoffs, but if he is healthy and rested, the Vikings are a MAJOR contender.
Ouch
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Steelers -10
O/U: 40
My Pick: Steelers -10. Pittsburgh rolls 33-10.
Result: Chiefs 27-24 (ot)
The Steelers' offense is having problems, and without Polamalu, the defense is a totally different animal. Letting teams back into games is not a problem the Steelers used to have. All of a sudden they can't hold a 10 point lead against a crappy team. Pittsburgh isn't just in danger of not repeating as champs; they could miss the postseason entirely if they don't get healthy and start playing better soon.
TO Did Something!
Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jaguars -9
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Bills +9. Buffalo wins outright 17-16.
Result: Jaguars 18-15
I was right in the ballpark on final score...I just picked the wrong team! Jacksonville may be the worst 6-4 football team I have ever seen, and their inclusion in the postseason would be insane. They'll start losing soon, and everyone will forget that they were over .500 through 11 games (after next week...).
Comeback Kids!
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -6.5
O/U: 42
My Pick: 49ers +6.5. Green Bay still wins 16-13.
Result: Packers 30-24
This is now the second time San Fran has come out of the gates slowly but come back late to beat the spread (@HOU). Nice of them to help me out. It is, however, disappointing for them to be 4-7 after the way they looked the first few weeks of the season. Both San Fran and the Jets were big surprises early, and now both are right back where everyone expected them to be. Green Bay is suddenly in the playoff hunt, and could get in if they keep beating the teams they're supposed to beat. It would be fitting if they missed out by one game, though. (In other words, the loss at Tampa keeps them out...)
Best Game of the Week!
Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions
Line: Lions -3.5
O/U: 38.5
My Pick: Browns +3.5. Detroit wins 13-10.
Result: Lions 38-37
No one expected this game to be interesting in any way, but after the Browns got out to a 21 point lead just to see the Lions come back, things got quite interesting. And then the game ended, quite fittingly in my opinion, with a pass interference call deciding the outcome. You know, just to remind us that we were, in fact, watching the Lions play the Browns.
2 Almost shutouts in a row!
Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -11
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Redskins +11. Dallas wins 23-13.
Result: Cowboys 7-6
It was unbelievable that the Dallas offense came out of the gates that unprepared after scoring only 7 points last week, also late in the game, against Green Bay. I wanted to see them get shut out, but I guess a 1-point win over a crappy team at home fits in well with the Dallas season thus far. I can't wait to see how they blow their division lead!
Injuries Kill Spread Picks
Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Cardinals -9
O/U: 46.5
My Pick: Cardinals -9. Arizona rolls 38-17.
Result: Cardinals 21-13
You can't predict injuries. If Warner stayed in, the Cards would have scored at least once more, and would have beaten the spread. Oh well.
Stupid Strategy
San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos
Line: N/A
O/U: N/A
My Pick: Broncos win 31-24.
Result: Chargers 32-3
I'm not even going to look up the spread. It's obvious that the Chargers beat whatever it turned out to be. After the previous week, I had to go back to my opposite-picking strategy with Denver. After this week, I may have to rethink things.
Oh Come On...
Cincinnati Bengals @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Bengals -9.5
O/U: 36
My Pick: Bengals -9.5. Cincy wins 28-6.
Result: Raiders 20-17
Cincy should be ashamed. And I'm sure they are. For some reason, they can beat really good teams, yet have trouble with lesser ones. Their losses are to Denver, Houston, and Oakland. I'll bet none of them make the playoffs (HOU has best chance of the 3...).
What happens when you run into Angry Pats?
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -10.5
O/U: 45
My Pick: Pats -10.5. New England crushes the Jets 38-14.
Result: Patriots 31-14
The Pats were mad that Belichick was put through the wringer for his 4th and 2 call last week against the Colts. They were also pissed that the Jets beat them in week 2. What does that add up to for New York? A whoopin. And that's what happened. It got a little closer than I expected after a 24-0 start, but the Pats did just enough to keep it a blowout. If they get past the Saints, New England won't lose again in the regular season. And if they face the Colts in the playoffs, I have a feeling there will be some animosity involved. It'll be a great game if it happens.
Vick wins another Dog Fight
Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears
Line: Eagles -3
O/U: 45
My Pick: Eagles -3. Philly wins 24-17.
Result: Eagles 24-20
Ok, fine, Vick didn't "win" the game, but he was involved, so I took the liberty of using the eye-catching title. This game was a good old-fashioned dog fight, and it was a shame someone had to lose. In the end, it was the team that couldn't find the endzone and had to settle for 4 field goals that lost, and rightfully so. I love the use of Vick in 3rd and 1 situations, and I hope Andy Reid will continue to do it, as it immediately makes the Eagles one of the better short yardage teams in the league simply by opening up a plethora of options on those plays. I should also note that DeSean Jackson's 48-yard touchdown catch was his shortest of the year. Of SEVEN. Wow.
Can They Get To Ten?
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -4.5
O/U: 48
My Pick: Titans +4.5. Tennessee wins outright 24-20.
Result: Titans 20-17
Tennessee looks like a completely different team. And Houston is no slouch. Their inability to score in the last two minutes of the game is troubling, but if the defense plays solid and the offense continues to hold onto the ball, they should finish 9-7 or better and possibly sneak into the postseason. When betting Tennessee from now on, you must consider them as they were last season. This team has found its way and will give every opponent trouble unless Vince Young has a bad game (which is always possible). He looked awfully good on Monday Night, though.
Thursday, November 19, 2009
NFL Week Eleven Preview
Thursday, November 19th:
Miami Dolphins @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Carolina -3
O/U: 42.5
Carolina has been solid the past few weeks, and Miami's loss of Ronnie Brown really takes the teeth out of the wildcat. Don't forget that Patrick Cobbs was placed on IR for the Fins after week 5, so without Brown they'll have to turn to Pat White more often (if they stick with the wildcat). He presents a much more viable passing option out of that formation, and after working in a spread offense in college, he is used to that type of set and may be a pleasant surprise when thrown into the lineup for more plays. But he's also a rookie. I wouldn't expect any miracles, at least not right away, as defenses will simply key on stopping Ricky Williams and will make Pat White or Chad Henne try to beat them. The Fins are 3-0 SU and ATS lifetime against the Panthers, but unless Delhomme starts throwing INTs again, this one should be all Panthers, who lost only one game ATS at home all of last season.
My Pick: Panthers -3. Carolina wins at home 24-13.
Sunday, November 22nd:
Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Colts -1
O/U: 44
This was a game I truly wanted to get creative with. The Colts dodged a bullet last week, and I don't think they're going to finish the year undefeated. The trick is picking their first loss. Baltimore was the best ATS team in the league last year (12-3-1), yet has fallen off this season, despite having an improved offense, and is just 6-3 ATS. I want to pick them to win this game, but they've had some big issues lately on offense, able to score only 16 against the Browns after scoring just 7 against the Bengals. Their win against Denver looks less attractive right now, too, as the Broncos have quickly gone downhill. The defense is aging quickly, and with one of their younger star defenders, Terrell Suggs (27), out this week, it may be tough to stop one of the league's best offenses. You never know when Ed Reed is going to step up and grab a couple of INT returns for touchdowns, but that's the sort of thing you can't predict. Given their age and recent struggles, and the fact that they're the #13 pass D in the league, I don't think this matchup favors the Ravens. And the Colts are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five against Baltimore, so I guess the mystique of playing in the franchise's former home doesn't affect anything.
My Pick: Colts -1. Indy wins 24-20.
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Saints -11
O/U: 51
New Orleans beat the spread in its first 6 games, but has now lost ATS 3 straight. Tampa is the reverse, losing to the spread in all but 1 of its first 7, and now riding a 2 game ATS winning streak. The Saints offense has looked a bit off the past few weeks, but heading down to Tampa to face a team that has been letting up big plays all season long might be the perfect cure. The spread streaks intrigue me, and although I thought there was no way in hell the Rams would beat the spread against New Orleans last week, I REALLY don't see Tampa pulling it off, no matter how confident they are right now. Colston was sick last week and caught only 2 balls, and unless the Saints want to take a chance and rest half of their starters again, they should roll.
My Pick: Saints -11. New Orleans gets back into the 40's...42-17.
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -6.5
O/U: 46
What happens when a penetrable force meets a moveable object? In other words, these two teams have each been playing terribly...so which one will find a way to blow it? The Giants have lost four in a row, but coming off of their bye week should find a way to pull themselves together. Atlanta should not have lost to Carolina last week, and now has to go 5-2 the rest of the way just to have a shot at a wild card. With games @NYG and vs. NO still left, it's not going to be easy. The Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 trips to Jersey to face the Giants, and I think that will be the case again unless Michael Turner's ankle injury keeps him out.
My Pick: Falcons +6.5. New York still wins 21-17.
Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -10.5
O/U: 46
Must be nice to play doormats two weeks in a row. Seattle hasn't been good; Minnesota has. They stuttered a little bit offensively last week against Detroit, but were eventually able to beat the big spread. I think they'll be better this week. Favre is clicking with his receivers, making the Vikings a fun team to watch and a very tough team to beat. And that defense is awfully good.
My Pick: Vikings 31-13.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Steelers -10
O/U: 40
On paper, the Chiefs should be terrible without Larry Johnson. In reality, they've been ok, and have beaten the spread in both games since his departure. Pittsburgh is unquestionably a great team, but is surprisingly only 3-6 ATS this year despite a 6-3 record. I hesitate to pick them in such a circumstance (bad ATS on the road against a team that can surprise people), but the franchise is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 against KC, and this is the type of offense that breaks out of its shell every now and then and scores a bunch of points. I think this is the week for that result, as they have to be upset that they were held to only field goals against the Bungles.
My Pick: Steelers -10. Pittsburgh rolls 33-10.
Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jaguars -9
O/U: 42.5
Nice of the oddsmakers to make this an easy pick for me. Buffalo usually has success against Jacksonville, especially in Jacksonville (road team has won 6 of 9 meetings). I don't think Jauron's firing will mean a guaranteed loss, and although the Bills have no offense, they do have the D to stop Garrard and the Jags. I have no idea how the Jags are 5-4 right now, but I don't think it will last long.
My Pick: Bills +9. Buffalo wins outright 17-16.
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -6.5
O/U: 42
After a spectacular outing by the Green Bay defense last week, I am having trouble justifying a 49ers upset. How can Frank Gore and Alex Smith gash a defense that just held the Cowboys to 7 points? In this league, however, you never know what can happen, and the Packers are wildly inconsistent. The 49ers are 2-0 ATS vs. the NFC North thus far, and should keep this game close. My concern isn't with the possibility that the Packers will blow out the 49ers...it's with whether or not the 49ers can win outright.
My Pick: 49ers +6.5. Green Bay still wins 16-13.
Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions
Line: Lions -3.5
O/U: 38.5
Detroit has played better than Cleveland as a whole, and Stafford should be able to get enough offense together to beat the Browns. But will it be by 4 or more? My guess is no, especially after how well the Cleveland defense held down the Ravens last week. And I wouldn't be surprised if the Browns won outright.
My Pick: Browns +3.5. Detroit wins 13-10.
Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -11
O/U: 41.5
Dallas struggled against Green Bay's defense, and Washington's is comparable. A little better than GB in the secondary, a little worse against the run, but overall #5 in YPG as compared to #4 Green Bay. So will Romo put it back together? We know Washington won't score too many points, but that doesn't mean it won't be close. Washington has only failed to beat the spread twice as an underdog thus far, and generally plays close games, which is why they have been unable to beat the spread as a favorite; the games have been too close. The Skins are also 6-2 ATS in their last 8 against Dallas. I'm not picking the upset, but I do think the spread is too big unless the Cowboys can find a way to break out of their shell offensively.
My Pick: Redskins +11. Dallas wins 23-13.
Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Cardinals -9
O/U: 46.5
The Cards have been unstoppable on the road this year (4-0 SU and ATS). The Rams are awful and play on turf in a dome, which means that a team with a great passing attack and excellent receivers (e.g. Arizona) could have a field day. It didn't work for New Orleans, but I believe they were looking past the Rams and resting some players. It's a division game for Arizona and another chance to cement themselves at the top of their division, so I think they'll be prepared.
My Pick: Cardinals -9. Arizona rolls 38-17.
San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos
Line: N/A
O/U: N/A
This game has no lines yet because Kyle Orton is still questionable. At last report, he had torn ligaments but was optimistic that he could play anyway. My guess is he'll try, but they'll still get creamed by the red-hot Chargers who are looking to grab the reigns of the AFC West. No matter what happens, I'm sure the Chargers will be favored. As usual, whatever my score prediction is will be calculated against the final line for the game to determine whether or not I was right. Since San Diego will no doubt be favored, and my gut feeling is to say they'll win, this will be an easy pick. I have to go against my gut whenever the Broncos are involved, as I was again reminded of last week.
My Pick: Broncos win 31-24.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Bengals -9.5
O/U: 36
Like the Steelers, the Bengals failed to score an offensive touchdown last week and will likely be looking to put a bunch of points on the board against an inferior opponent out of the AFC West. The defense, unless it isn't focused, should completely stop the Raiders' O. The Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against OAK, and I can't see that changing. But the Raiders did beat Philly, so I hesitate to take them too lightly.
My Pick: Bengals -9.5. Cincy wins 28-6.
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -10.5
O/U: 45
New England is pissed that they lost last week, pissed at the Jets for beating them in Week 2, and pissed that the whole world is second guessing their coach. The Jets have been terrible since week 3 except for a solid performance in Oakland, which doesn't really count for much. They're 1-5 ATS in their last 6, and have no business competing with the Pats. They may be amped up for this game and keep it close, but I wouldn't count on it after the way they've been playing.
My Pick: Pats -10.5. New England crushes the Jets 38-14.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears
Line: Eagles -3
O/U: 45
Usually I would be very careful and pick the home underdog, especially when it's the Bears (4-1 ATS last 5 as home dog) but I just can't see the Eagles, picked to be one of the best teams in the league, losing 3 in a row. The Eagles have won 12 of their last 15 against the NFC North, and must win this game to keep pace in their division and avoid the fall back to .500. They also need to prove they can win without Westbrook, who will likely miss the rest of the year. I'd love to see some wildcat packages using Michael Vick, but that isn't Andy Reid's coaching style, so I don't see it happening despite the positive boost it could give that offense. I think they'll hit a few big plays this week and the defense will keep them ahead.
My Pick: Eagles -3. Philly wins 24-17.
Monday, November 23rd:
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -4.5
O/U: 48
The Texans got the better of Tennessee last time, but this is a rejuvenated Titans football team that should be looked at the way they would have been at the end of last season when they were 13-3. But one of those 3 losses last season came @HOU. This is another game I prefer to look at based on percentages. Tennessee is highly confident and motivated and wants to win ten-in-a-row to finish the year. I think they chances they win outright or lose by 4 or less are far greater than the chances that they get blown out.
My Pick: Titans +4.5. Tennessee wins outright 24-20.
Miami Dolphins @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Carolina -3
O/U: 42.5
Carolina has been solid the past few weeks, and Miami's loss of Ronnie Brown really takes the teeth out of the wildcat. Don't forget that Patrick Cobbs was placed on IR for the Fins after week 5, so without Brown they'll have to turn to Pat White more often (if they stick with the wildcat). He presents a much more viable passing option out of that formation, and after working in a spread offense in college, he is used to that type of set and may be a pleasant surprise when thrown into the lineup for more plays. But he's also a rookie. I wouldn't expect any miracles, at least not right away, as defenses will simply key on stopping Ricky Williams and will make Pat White or Chad Henne try to beat them. The Fins are 3-0 SU and ATS lifetime against the Panthers, but unless Delhomme starts throwing INTs again, this one should be all Panthers, who lost only one game ATS at home all of last season.
My Pick: Panthers -3. Carolina wins at home 24-13.
Sunday, November 22nd:
Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Colts -1
O/U: 44
This was a game I truly wanted to get creative with. The Colts dodged a bullet last week, and I don't think they're going to finish the year undefeated. The trick is picking their first loss. Baltimore was the best ATS team in the league last year (12-3-1), yet has fallen off this season, despite having an improved offense, and is just 6-3 ATS. I want to pick them to win this game, but they've had some big issues lately on offense, able to score only 16 against the Browns after scoring just 7 against the Bengals. Their win against Denver looks less attractive right now, too, as the Broncos have quickly gone downhill. The defense is aging quickly, and with one of their younger star defenders, Terrell Suggs (27), out this week, it may be tough to stop one of the league's best offenses. You never know when Ed Reed is going to step up and grab a couple of INT returns for touchdowns, but that's the sort of thing you can't predict. Given their age and recent struggles, and the fact that they're the #13 pass D in the league, I don't think this matchup favors the Ravens. And the Colts are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five against Baltimore, so I guess the mystique of playing in the franchise's former home doesn't affect anything.
My Pick: Colts -1. Indy wins 24-20.
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Saints -11
O/U: 51
New Orleans beat the spread in its first 6 games, but has now lost ATS 3 straight. Tampa is the reverse, losing to the spread in all but 1 of its first 7, and now riding a 2 game ATS winning streak. The Saints offense has looked a bit off the past few weeks, but heading down to Tampa to face a team that has been letting up big plays all season long might be the perfect cure. The spread streaks intrigue me, and although I thought there was no way in hell the Rams would beat the spread against New Orleans last week, I REALLY don't see Tampa pulling it off, no matter how confident they are right now. Colston was sick last week and caught only 2 balls, and unless the Saints want to take a chance and rest half of their starters again, they should roll.
My Pick: Saints -11. New Orleans gets back into the 40's...42-17.
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -6.5
O/U: 46
What happens when a penetrable force meets a moveable object? In other words, these two teams have each been playing terribly...so which one will find a way to blow it? The Giants have lost four in a row, but coming off of their bye week should find a way to pull themselves together. Atlanta should not have lost to Carolina last week, and now has to go 5-2 the rest of the way just to have a shot at a wild card. With games @NYG and vs. NO still left, it's not going to be easy. The Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 trips to Jersey to face the Giants, and I think that will be the case again unless Michael Turner's ankle injury keeps him out.
My Pick: Falcons +6.5. New York still wins 21-17.
Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -10.5
O/U: 46
Must be nice to play doormats two weeks in a row. Seattle hasn't been good; Minnesota has. They stuttered a little bit offensively last week against Detroit, but were eventually able to beat the big spread. I think they'll be better this week. Favre is clicking with his receivers, making the Vikings a fun team to watch and a very tough team to beat. And that defense is awfully good.
My Pick: Vikings 31-13.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Steelers -10
O/U: 40
On paper, the Chiefs should be terrible without Larry Johnson. In reality, they've been ok, and have beaten the spread in both games since his departure. Pittsburgh is unquestionably a great team, but is surprisingly only 3-6 ATS this year despite a 6-3 record. I hesitate to pick them in such a circumstance (bad ATS on the road against a team that can surprise people), but the franchise is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 against KC, and this is the type of offense that breaks out of its shell every now and then and scores a bunch of points. I think this is the week for that result, as they have to be upset that they were held to only field goals against the Bungles.
My Pick: Steelers -10. Pittsburgh rolls 33-10.
Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jaguars -9
O/U: 42.5
Nice of the oddsmakers to make this an easy pick for me. Buffalo usually has success against Jacksonville, especially in Jacksonville (road team has won 6 of 9 meetings). I don't think Jauron's firing will mean a guaranteed loss, and although the Bills have no offense, they do have the D to stop Garrard and the Jags. I have no idea how the Jags are 5-4 right now, but I don't think it will last long.
My Pick: Bills +9. Buffalo wins outright 17-16.
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -6.5
O/U: 42
After a spectacular outing by the Green Bay defense last week, I am having trouble justifying a 49ers upset. How can Frank Gore and Alex Smith gash a defense that just held the Cowboys to 7 points? In this league, however, you never know what can happen, and the Packers are wildly inconsistent. The 49ers are 2-0 ATS vs. the NFC North thus far, and should keep this game close. My concern isn't with the possibility that the Packers will blow out the 49ers...it's with whether or not the 49ers can win outright.
My Pick: 49ers +6.5. Green Bay still wins 16-13.
Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions
Line: Lions -3.5
O/U: 38.5
Detroit has played better than Cleveland as a whole, and Stafford should be able to get enough offense together to beat the Browns. But will it be by 4 or more? My guess is no, especially after how well the Cleveland defense held down the Ravens last week. And I wouldn't be surprised if the Browns won outright.
My Pick: Browns +3.5. Detroit wins 13-10.
Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -11
O/U: 41.5
Dallas struggled against Green Bay's defense, and Washington's is comparable. A little better than GB in the secondary, a little worse against the run, but overall #5 in YPG as compared to #4 Green Bay. So will Romo put it back together? We know Washington won't score too many points, but that doesn't mean it won't be close. Washington has only failed to beat the spread twice as an underdog thus far, and generally plays close games, which is why they have been unable to beat the spread as a favorite; the games have been too close. The Skins are also 6-2 ATS in their last 8 against Dallas. I'm not picking the upset, but I do think the spread is too big unless the Cowboys can find a way to break out of their shell offensively.
My Pick: Redskins +11. Dallas wins 23-13.
Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Cardinals -9
O/U: 46.5
The Cards have been unstoppable on the road this year (4-0 SU and ATS). The Rams are awful and play on turf in a dome, which means that a team with a great passing attack and excellent receivers (e.g. Arizona) could have a field day. It didn't work for New Orleans, but I believe they were looking past the Rams and resting some players. It's a division game for Arizona and another chance to cement themselves at the top of their division, so I think they'll be prepared.
My Pick: Cardinals -9. Arizona rolls 38-17.
San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos
Line: N/A
O/U: N/A
This game has no lines yet because Kyle Orton is still questionable. At last report, he had torn ligaments but was optimistic that he could play anyway. My guess is he'll try, but they'll still get creamed by the red-hot Chargers who are looking to grab the reigns of the AFC West. No matter what happens, I'm sure the Chargers will be favored. As usual, whatever my score prediction is will be calculated against the final line for the game to determine whether or not I was right. Since San Diego will no doubt be favored, and my gut feeling is to say they'll win, this will be an easy pick. I have to go against my gut whenever the Broncos are involved, as I was again reminded of last week.
My Pick: Broncos win 31-24.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Bengals -9.5
O/U: 36
Like the Steelers, the Bengals failed to score an offensive touchdown last week and will likely be looking to put a bunch of points on the board against an inferior opponent out of the AFC West. The defense, unless it isn't focused, should completely stop the Raiders' O. The Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against OAK, and I can't see that changing. But the Raiders did beat Philly, so I hesitate to take them too lightly.
My Pick: Bengals -9.5. Cincy wins 28-6.
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -10.5
O/U: 45
New England is pissed that they lost last week, pissed at the Jets for beating them in Week 2, and pissed that the whole world is second guessing their coach. The Jets have been terrible since week 3 except for a solid performance in Oakland, which doesn't really count for much. They're 1-5 ATS in their last 6, and have no business competing with the Pats. They may be amped up for this game and keep it close, but I wouldn't count on it after the way they've been playing.
My Pick: Pats -10.5. New England crushes the Jets 38-14.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears
Line: Eagles -3
O/U: 45
Usually I would be very careful and pick the home underdog, especially when it's the Bears (4-1 ATS last 5 as home dog) but I just can't see the Eagles, picked to be one of the best teams in the league, losing 3 in a row. The Eagles have won 12 of their last 15 against the NFC North, and must win this game to keep pace in their division and avoid the fall back to .500. They also need to prove they can win without Westbrook, who will likely miss the rest of the year. I'd love to see some wildcat packages using Michael Vick, but that isn't Andy Reid's coaching style, so I don't see it happening despite the positive boost it could give that offense. I think they'll hit a few big plays this week and the defense will keep them ahead.
My Pick: Eagles -3. Philly wins 24-17.
Monday, November 23rd:
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -4.5
O/U: 48
The Texans got the better of Tennessee last time, but this is a rejuvenated Titans football team that should be looked at the way they would have been at the end of last season when they were 13-3. But one of those 3 losses last season came @HOU. This is another game I prefer to look at based on percentages. Tennessee is highly confident and motivated and wants to win ten-in-a-row to finish the year. I think they chances they win outright or lose by 4 or less are far greater than the chances that they get blown out.
My Pick: Titans +4.5. Tennessee wins outright 24-20.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
NFL Week Ten Recap
Overall SU: 94-50 (9-6 wk 10)
Week 10 ATS: 7-8
Overall ATS: 66-77-1
Nice Offense...
Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers 3.5
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Bears +3.5. Bears win outright 24-20.
Result: 49ers 10-6
Both teams had been playing games Over, so this was a little out of character despite both having offensive issues and decent defenses. Had I known it would be low scoring, I would have gone with the 49ers. Cutler's 5 INTs didn't help, either.
NFC South Wrapped Up
Atlanta Falcons @Carolina Panthers
Line: Falcons -1.5
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Falcons -1.5. Atlanta wins 21-17.
Result: Panthers 28-19
Despite it being only week 10, this was a must win game for the Falcons. With 7 games left, they are now 4 games out in the division and have, to this point, lost the tiebreaker, so it might as well be 5. Atlanta needs to hope Michael Turner isn't badly injured, and will then need to make a push just to have a shot at a wild card. This is a team that had very high expectations earlier in the year, so I don't think they'll give up, but it will be an uphill battle. Carolina, much like Tennessee, seems to be back to last season's form all of a sudden and could keep shocking good teams. Way to make my job tougher...
Barely...
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -16.5
O/U: 47
My Pick: Vikings -16.5. Minnesota rolls 42-17.
Result: Vikings 27-10
The Lions defense performed admirably, and for most of the game kept them within striking distance. Thankfully the Vikings were able to pull away and beat the spread.
Knew It
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -10
O/U: 43
My Pick: Bucs +10. Miami still wins 17-13.
Result: Dolphins 25-23
The Bucs are a bit more dangerous now that they've tasted "winning". Miami almost, and maybe should have, lost this game. They had trouble at home against easier opponents last year...maybe they're getting too comfortable in the balmy Florida sun?
Jets continue sliding
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -7
O/U: 40.5
My Pick: Jets -7. New York wins 30-10.
Result: Jaguars 24-22
Aside from the MJD play that everyone keeps talking about, this was a pretty good game for Jacksonville. Even with the Jets having issues lately I thought they'd handle the Jags easily. I was obviously mistaken. New York somehow began 3-0 behind a stellar defense that has since been figured out by everyone but the Raiders. I know they have the talent to win against solid teams, but it will be hard to pick them from here on out due to their inconsistency on both sides of the ball.
Wow.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -7
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Steelers -7. Pittsburgh asserts their dominance, 27-14.
Result: Bengals 18-12
Analysts spoke all morning of how Cincinnati badly wanted this game but likely lacked the toughness to win a smashmouth game against the defending champs. Guess Cincy's tougher than everyone thought! And Ochocinco's prediction of 12 wins is also looking pretty darn good right about now. They have all-but wrapped up the division by earning the tiebreaker against both Pittsburgh and Baltimore, but more importantly they're an extremely confident team right now. Pittsburgh will be fine, and should get into the playoffs despite this loss, but for a stellar defensive team to lose a mostly defensive game must sting a little. And they have to stop letting up return TDs. 7 straight games...I'm guessing that hasn't happened to an NFL team in a very long time.
Come on...
New Orleans @ St. Louis
Line: Saints -13.5
O/U: 50
My Pick: Saints -13.5. New Orleans likes domes. Saints 45-10.
Result: Saints 28-23
After a few weeks of less-than-stellar offensive play, I thought the Saints would take this opportunity to air it out and go for a blowout. Guess they decided to rest people instead. I had no idea thier secondary would be so depleted, and would guess that had they been playing a team above .500, Sharper would have played. The offense was shut down much more than I expected, but the real surprise was that the Saints D allowed the Rams to stay in the game throughout. Awful. Still 9-0 though, which I suppose is all that matters to them.
Why would I go against a proven strategy?
Denver Broncos @ Washington Redskins
Line: Broncos -3.5
O/U: 37
My Pick: Broncos -3.5. Denver has to win, right? 23-0.
Result: Redskins 27-17
Only once this season have I been wrong when employing my strategy of picking directly against my gut when the Broncos are involved. This week I thought it was such a done deal that I went with my gut...and look what happened. I have no idea what happened to the Denver D, but for one of the league's best defenses to allow the Redskins to score 10 points more than they've scored in any single game all year is disgraceful. Denver is on the way down...I'll bet they miss the playoffs, especially if Orton is out for any length of time.
No miracle this time...
Buffalo Bills @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -6.5
O/U: 41
My Pick: Titans -6.5. Tennessee keeps winning 23-10.
Result: Titans 41-17
Now the win streak is at 3. Can the Titans get to 10? Probably not. But it would be funny if they won 10 in a row and still missed the postseason. 10-6 is no guarantee.
Don't care...
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Raiders -2
O/U: 36.5
My Pick: Raiders -2. Oakland wins 23-19.
Result: Chiefs 16-10
Thought about picking the Chiefs, but the Larry Johnson thing is still in the back of my head. I guess they can win without him when the other team has no offense.
How far can they go this year?
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cardinals -8.5
O/U: 47
My Pick: Cards -8.5. Arizona shows off in a big way 41-13.
Result: Cardinals 31-20
Now that they have a decent NFC West lead, I wonder where the Cards will end up. They seem a little worse than last year, but have all the confidence gained from a Super Bowl run. Guess all the analysts were wrong about Seattle making a run this year. I guess a team needs more than TJ Housh to be a contender.
Haha, knew it.
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Cowboys -3
O/U: 47.5
My Pick: Packers +3. Green Bay wins outright 30-24.
Result: Packers 17-7
Typical Cowboys...they know they're not the best team in the East, so they have to lose some games to let everyone catch up. Green Bay won it defensively, which I didn't expect, but showed that they certainly have the talent to beat most teams in the league when their offensive line holds up.
Another good call
Philadelphia Eagles @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -1
O/U: 47
My Pick: Chargers -1. San Diego shuts down the big plays and wins 23-17.
Result: Chargers 31-23
Philadelphia is capable of losing consecutive games, and San Diego certainly had the talent to win this one at home. So it wasn't that outlandish of a pick, even though many people in upstate New York felt the Eagles would win it easily. San Diego has begun to hit their stride, and I think they will roll to the AFC West title.
Stupid Points
New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 49.5
My Pick: Colts -3. Indy wins 31-27.
Result: Colts 35-34
I had the feeling the Colts would win, but forgot to consider that they may win by less than 3. At least they're still undefeated and the Pats look foolish. At one point during the game I posed that New England looked so solid that they might not lose again. I stand by that, despite having lost in Indy. If Brady can keep his offense moving the ball like they did in the first half, the Pats will be tough to stop.
Defensive Shutout, Offensive Ineptitude, or Both? (Hint: It was both)
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Ravens -10.5
O/U: 40
My Pick: Ravens -10.5. Baltimore rolls 33-10.
Result: Ravens 16-0
I am now a little worried about the Ravens offense, after scoring only 10 points against the Browns (3 of which were from close range after an INT, too...). Baltimore's defense isn't quite what they once were, and I wonder if the offense has enough juice left to put up solid numbers against good teams. We'll find out next week when Indy comes to town. I like Baltimore to break the streak. There is a ton of history involved, as the Colts were formerly from Baltimore, and Ray Lewis and the Ravens D would love nothing more than to end the Colts' streak. Don't know if it will happen, but I will likely pick the Ravens in that game barring significant trend or injury information to the contrary.
Week 10 ATS: 7-8
Overall ATS: 66-77-1
Nice Offense...
Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers 3.5
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Bears +3.5. Bears win outright 24-20.
Result: 49ers 10-6
Both teams had been playing games Over, so this was a little out of character despite both having offensive issues and decent defenses. Had I known it would be low scoring, I would have gone with the 49ers. Cutler's 5 INTs didn't help, either.
NFC South Wrapped Up
Atlanta Falcons @Carolina Panthers
Line: Falcons -1.5
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Falcons -1.5. Atlanta wins 21-17.
Result: Panthers 28-19
Despite it being only week 10, this was a must win game for the Falcons. With 7 games left, they are now 4 games out in the division and have, to this point, lost the tiebreaker, so it might as well be 5. Atlanta needs to hope Michael Turner isn't badly injured, and will then need to make a push just to have a shot at a wild card. This is a team that had very high expectations earlier in the year, so I don't think they'll give up, but it will be an uphill battle. Carolina, much like Tennessee, seems to be back to last season's form all of a sudden and could keep shocking good teams. Way to make my job tougher...
Barely...
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -16.5
O/U: 47
My Pick: Vikings -16.5. Minnesota rolls 42-17.
Result: Vikings 27-10
The Lions defense performed admirably, and for most of the game kept them within striking distance. Thankfully the Vikings were able to pull away and beat the spread.
Knew It
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -10
O/U: 43
My Pick: Bucs +10. Miami still wins 17-13.
Result: Dolphins 25-23
The Bucs are a bit more dangerous now that they've tasted "winning". Miami almost, and maybe should have, lost this game. They had trouble at home against easier opponents last year...maybe they're getting too comfortable in the balmy Florida sun?
Jets continue sliding
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -7
O/U: 40.5
My Pick: Jets -7. New York wins 30-10.
Result: Jaguars 24-22
Aside from the MJD play that everyone keeps talking about, this was a pretty good game for Jacksonville. Even with the Jets having issues lately I thought they'd handle the Jags easily. I was obviously mistaken. New York somehow began 3-0 behind a stellar defense that has since been figured out by everyone but the Raiders. I know they have the talent to win against solid teams, but it will be hard to pick them from here on out due to their inconsistency on both sides of the ball.
Wow.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -7
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Steelers -7. Pittsburgh asserts their dominance, 27-14.
Result: Bengals 18-12
Analysts spoke all morning of how Cincinnati badly wanted this game but likely lacked the toughness to win a smashmouth game against the defending champs. Guess Cincy's tougher than everyone thought! And Ochocinco's prediction of 12 wins is also looking pretty darn good right about now. They have all-but wrapped up the division by earning the tiebreaker against both Pittsburgh and Baltimore, but more importantly they're an extremely confident team right now. Pittsburgh will be fine, and should get into the playoffs despite this loss, but for a stellar defensive team to lose a mostly defensive game must sting a little. And they have to stop letting up return TDs. 7 straight games...I'm guessing that hasn't happened to an NFL team in a very long time.
Come on...
New Orleans @ St. Louis
Line: Saints -13.5
O/U: 50
My Pick: Saints -13.5. New Orleans likes domes. Saints 45-10.
Result: Saints 28-23
After a few weeks of less-than-stellar offensive play, I thought the Saints would take this opportunity to air it out and go for a blowout. Guess they decided to rest people instead. I had no idea thier secondary would be so depleted, and would guess that had they been playing a team above .500, Sharper would have played. The offense was shut down much more than I expected, but the real surprise was that the Saints D allowed the Rams to stay in the game throughout. Awful. Still 9-0 though, which I suppose is all that matters to them.
Why would I go against a proven strategy?
Denver Broncos @ Washington Redskins
Line: Broncos -3.5
O/U: 37
My Pick: Broncos -3.5. Denver has to win, right? 23-0.
Result: Redskins 27-17
Only once this season have I been wrong when employing my strategy of picking directly against my gut when the Broncos are involved. This week I thought it was such a done deal that I went with my gut...and look what happened. I have no idea what happened to the Denver D, but for one of the league's best defenses to allow the Redskins to score 10 points more than they've scored in any single game all year is disgraceful. Denver is on the way down...I'll bet they miss the playoffs, especially if Orton is out for any length of time.
No miracle this time...
Buffalo Bills @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -6.5
O/U: 41
My Pick: Titans -6.5. Tennessee keeps winning 23-10.
Result: Titans 41-17
Now the win streak is at 3. Can the Titans get to 10? Probably not. But it would be funny if they won 10 in a row and still missed the postseason. 10-6 is no guarantee.
Don't care...
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Raiders -2
O/U: 36.5
My Pick: Raiders -2. Oakland wins 23-19.
Result: Chiefs 16-10
Thought about picking the Chiefs, but the Larry Johnson thing is still in the back of my head. I guess they can win without him when the other team has no offense.
How far can they go this year?
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cardinals -8.5
O/U: 47
My Pick: Cards -8.5. Arizona shows off in a big way 41-13.
Result: Cardinals 31-20
Now that they have a decent NFC West lead, I wonder where the Cards will end up. They seem a little worse than last year, but have all the confidence gained from a Super Bowl run. Guess all the analysts were wrong about Seattle making a run this year. I guess a team needs more than TJ Housh to be a contender.
Haha, knew it.
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Cowboys -3
O/U: 47.5
My Pick: Packers +3. Green Bay wins outright 30-24.
Result: Packers 17-7
Typical Cowboys...they know they're not the best team in the East, so they have to lose some games to let everyone catch up. Green Bay won it defensively, which I didn't expect, but showed that they certainly have the talent to beat most teams in the league when their offensive line holds up.
Another good call
Philadelphia Eagles @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -1
O/U: 47
My Pick: Chargers -1. San Diego shuts down the big plays and wins 23-17.
Result: Chargers 31-23
Philadelphia is capable of losing consecutive games, and San Diego certainly had the talent to win this one at home. So it wasn't that outlandish of a pick, even though many people in upstate New York felt the Eagles would win it easily. San Diego has begun to hit their stride, and I think they will roll to the AFC West title.
Stupid Points
New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 49.5
My Pick: Colts -3. Indy wins 31-27.
Result: Colts 35-34
I had the feeling the Colts would win, but forgot to consider that they may win by less than 3. At least they're still undefeated and the Pats look foolish. At one point during the game I posed that New England looked so solid that they might not lose again. I stand by that, despite having lost in Indy. If Brady can keep his offense moving the ball like they did in the first half, the Pats will be tough to stop.
Defensive Shutout, Offensive Ineptitude, or Both? (Hint: It was both)
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Ravens -10.5
O/U: 40
My Pick: Ravens -10.5. Baltimore rolls 33-10.
Result: Ravens 16-0
I am now a little worried about the Ravens offense, after scoring only 10 points against the Browns (3 of which were from close range after an INT, too...). Baltimore's defense isn't quite what they once were, and I wonder if the offense has enough juice left to put up solid numbers against good teams. We'll find out next week when Indy comes to town. I like Baltimore to break the streak. There is a ton of history involved, as the Colts were formerly from Baltimore, and Ray Lewis and the Ravens D would love nothing more than to end the Colts' streak. Don't know if it will happen, but I will likely pick the Ravens in that game barring significant trend or injury information to the contrary.
Thursday, November 12, 2009
NFL Week Ten Preview
Thursday, November 12th:
Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers 3.5
O/U: 43.5
The Bears have done better as a favorite than as an underdog this season (3-1 vs. 1-3) and are 0-6 SU and ATS in their last 6 trips to San Fran, having been shut out in 3 of those 6 games. The problem with taking the 49ers is that I feel the odds they will win by less than 3.5 or will lose are about 75%, vs. about a 25% chance that they'll win by 4+. I'm also worried that the Bears will play well after a few bad weeks, especially with the added fight put into them by Vernon Davis' comments this past week. And when the 49ers give up 16 or more, they lose. So considering that both teams have played Over 4 of their last 6, the Bears seem like a good choice.
My Pick: Bears +3.5. Bears win outright 24-20.
Sunday, November 15th:
Atlanta Falcons @Carolina Panthers
Line: Falcons -1.5
O/U: 43.5
Carolina has been playing much better lately, but the Falcons are chasing an undefeated team at the top of the division, and can't lose games like this one. Carolina is historically tough at home, but has yet to get a home ATS win yet this season. These teams have played 12 of their last 14 in Carolina Under, and Atlanta has won outright in 3 of their last 5 trips to Carolina. And that was when Carolina was the better team, which is far from the case this year. Both teams will run the ball a bunch, but as long as Michael Turner can have a big game and Matt Ryan doesn't make any mistakes, the Falcons should win it.
My Pick: Falcons -1.5. Atlanta wins 21-17.
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -16.5
O/U: 47
So you're telling me that a rested Favre will lead the Vikings into a home game agianst the Lions after having two weeks to think about it...umm...the spread would need to be 20 to lure me away from picking Vikings. If they trip up, it was unforeseeable.
My Pick: Vikings -16.5. Minnesota rolls 42-17.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -10
O/U: 43
I'm not sure what the Bucs will do against the Wildcat, but Miami tends to play close games, and after winning last week, I just don't see the Bucs getting beaten by a ton. Add to that the fact that Miami has played its last 3 games against the NFC South WAY Under, and the odds that they'll win by 10 decrease even more. Tampa's defense isn't great, but I think the win against Green Bay gives them a bit of confidence. The Bucs are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the Fins.
My Pick: Bucs +10. Miami still wins 17-13.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -7
O/U: 40.5
The Jags are awful, and have no business being over .500. Which means that Karma will force them to lose this game. The Jets also have a very good defense that has had an extra week to gameplan for a Jaguars offense that likely won't be surprising anyone. As long as Sanchez plays OK, the Jets will roll.
My Pick: Jets -7. New York wins 30-10.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -7
O/U: 41.5
Before the season began, we would have never thought this would be a big game. But now, with both teams at 6-2, it is a HUGE game and could determine the fate of the AFC North in only the 10th week of the season. If Cincy can win and sweep the Steelers, the division is all but theirs unless they stumble mightily. Don't bet on it, though. Pittsburgh has won a couple big games lately (Minnesota, @Denver) and the Steeler defense is looking stellar once again. Not to mention the Steelers want revenge for their loss earlier in the year.
My Pick: Steelers -7. Pittsburgh asserts their dominance, 27-14.
New Orleans @ St. Louis
Line: Saints -13.5
O/U: 50
There isn't a spread big enough for this one. Screw trends and all that other B.S....this one's obvious, and if it goes down any differently, I won't be the only one shocked.
My Pick: Saints -13.5. New Orleans likes domes. Saints 45-10.
Denver Broncos @ Washington Redskins
Line: Broncos -3.5
O/U: 37
This game has been bothering me all week. My gut says Broncos, and I don't want to pick against my gut this week, because Washington is really bad. In fact, I'm not sure they'll score. So I'm going against my strategy and with my gut.
My Pick: Broncos -3.5. Denver has to win, right? 23-0.
Buffalo Bills @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -6.5
O/U: 41
The music city miracle revisited. Tennessee has lost their last 5 ATS at home to AFC East teams, but this one seems a bit different. Buffalo has had trouble stopping the run, and Tennessee has one of the best running games around. Buffalo's offense has also been iffy, and Trent Edwards is bound to have a little trouble adjusting to being back under center after about a month on the sidelines. But after beating Carolina and the Jets, I have no idea what to expect from the Bills. They could come out and win this one. But I doubt it.
My Pick: Titans -6.5. Tennessee keeps winning 23-10.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Raiders -2
O/U: 36.5
Nobody wants to watch this game, so I'll keep it short. The Chiefs are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 trips to Oakland, and are looking for revenge after the Raiders beat them earlier in the year. But without Larry Johnson, will KC have any shot? I say no. Oakland has to have some talent, as they did beat Philly earlier in the year.
My Pick: Raiders -2. Oakland wins 23-19.
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cardinals -8.5
O/U: 47
This season has been a weird one for Arizona. You know they have the talent to win big games, but they only seem to be winning on the road. And one of those home losses was to Carolina. I think they'll win this one, though, as they need to assert their dominance in the division. But can they win by 9? Seattle has been pretty bad, and if it becomes a shootout, I like the Cards' chances.
My Pick: Cards -8.5. Arizona shows off in a big way 41-13.
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Cowboys -3
O/U: 47.5
Green Bay has been very inconsistent, but this seems like one of those games that the Cowboys could lose to let the rest of the division catch up a little. There is often a letdown after a big win, and I think the Packers will have a ton to prove after a very bad loss last week. Despite Dallas' 8-2 record ATS in their last 10 against the Packers, I have to take the home underdog.
My Pick: Packers +3. Green Bay wins outright 30-24.
Philadelphia Eagles @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -1
O/U: 47
After a big loss last week, the Eagles need a win to try to keep pace in the NFC East. The Chargers, coming off a big win, may suffer a letdown. As you can tell, I'm leaning toward the Eagles. But Philly is only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against San Diego, and relies too much on big plays, which happens to be a strength of the Chargers defense (I believe they're #2 in the league with regard to big plays against). So my heart is telling me Eagles, my brain is telling me Chargers. I'm a brain type of person.
My Pick: Chargers -1. San Diego shuts down the big plays and wins 23-17.
New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 49.5
The Pats are 15-2-1 ATS in their last 18 trips to Indy, but the Colts are undefeated. You can't mess with perfection. Indy hasn't played that great in the past few weeks, but the way I see it, that means they are due for a big offensive day. Plus this is the type of game you look forward to, so nobody will be looking past this opponent, which may have been an issue against San Fran and Houston. In this case, I'm going to take the undefeated home team to stay that way, but I really have no strong inclination either way. In other words, bet on a different game.
My Pick: Colts -3. Indy wins 31-27.
Monday, November 16th:
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Ravens -10.5
O/U: 40
The Ravens are a much better team than their record indicates. The Browns's record of 1-7 reflects them quite accurately. Though the Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 trips to Cleveland, the circumstances surrounding this game (Ravens at .500...) suggest that the Ravens will be taking out some frustration on the lowly Browns. I doubt they have the offense to keep up or the defense to prevent the onslaught. This one will be over at halftime.
My Pick: Ravens -10.5. Baltimore rolls 33-10.
Byes: NYG, HOU
Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers 3.5
O/U: 43.5
The Bears have done better as a favorite than as an underdog this season (3-1 vs. 1-3) and are 0-6 SU and ATS in their last 6 trips to San Fran, having been shut out in 3 of those 6 games. The problem with taking the 49ers is that I feel the odds they will win by less than 3.5 or will lose are about 75%, vs. about a 25% chance that they'll win by 4+. I'm also worried that the Bears will play well after a few bad weeks, especially with the added fight put into them by Vernon Davis' comments this past week. And when the 49ers give up 16 or more, they lose. So considering that both teams have played Over 4 of their last 6, the Bears seem like a good choice.
My Pick: Bears +3.5. Bears win outright 24-20.
Sunday, November 15th:
Atlanta Falcons @Carolina Panthers
Line: Falcons -1.5
O/U: 43.5
Carolina has been playing much better lately, but the Falcons are chasing an undefeated team at the top of the division, and can't lose games like this one. Carolina is historically tough at home, but has yet to get a home ATS win yet this season. These teams have played 12 of their last 14 in Carolina Under, and Atlanta has won outright in 3 of their last 5 trips to Carolina. And that was when Carolina was the better team, which is far from the case this year. Both teams will run the ball a bunch, but as long as Michael Turner can have a big game and Matt Ryan doesn't make any mistakes, the Falcons should win it.
My Pick: Falcons -1.5. Atlanta wins 21-17.
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -16.5
O/U: 47
So you're telling me that a rested Favre will lead the Vikings into a home game agianst the Lions after having two weeks to think about it...umm...the spread would need to be 20 to lure me away from picking Vikings. If they trip up, it was unforeseeable.
My Pick: Vikings -16.5. Minnesota rolls 42-17.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -10
O/U: 43
I'm not sure what the Bucs will do against the Wildcat, but Miami tends to play close games, and after winning last week, I just don't see the Bucs getting beaten by a ton. Add to that the fact that Miami has played its last 3 games against the NFC South WAY Under, and the odds that they'll win by 10 decrease even more. Tampa's defense isn't great, but I think the win against Green Bay gives them a bit of confidence. The Bucs are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the Fins.
My Pick: Bucs +10. Miami still wins 17-13.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -7
O/U: 40.5
The Jags are awful, and have no business being over .500. Which means that Karma will force them to lose this game. The Jets also have a very good defense that has had an extra week to gameplan for a Jaguars offense that likely won't be surprising anyone. As long as Sanchez plays OK, the Jets will roll.
My Pick: Jets -7. New York wins 30-10.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -7
O/U: 41.5
Before the season began, we would have never thought this would be a big game. But now, with both teams at 6-2, it is a HUGE game and could determine the fate of the AFC North in only the 10th week of the season. If Cincy can win and sweep the Steelers, the division is all but theirs unless they stumble mightily. Don't bet on it, though. Pittsburgh has won a couple big games lately (Minnesota, @Denver) and the Steeler defense is looking stellar once again. Not to mention the Steelers want revenge for their loss earlier in the year.
My Pick: Steelers -7. Pittsburgh asserts their dominance, 27-14.
New Orleans @ St. Louis
Line: Saints -13.5
O/U: 50
There isn't a spread big enough for this one. Screw trends and all that other B.S....this one's obvious, and if it goes down any differently, I won't be the only one shocked.
My Pick: Saints -13.5. New Orleans likes domes. Saints 45-10.
Denver Broncos @ Washington Redskins
Line: Broncos -3.5
O/U: 37
This game has been bothering me all week. My gut says Broncos, and I don't want to pick against my gut this week, because Washington is really bad. In fact, I'm not sure they'll score. So I'm going against my strategy and with my gut.
My Pick: Broncos -3.5. Denver has to win, right? 23-0.
Buffalo Bills @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -6.5
O/U: 41
The music city miracle revisited. Tennessee has lost their last 5 ATS at home to AFC East teams, but this one seems a bit different. Buffalo has had trouble stopping the run, and Tennessee has one of the best running games around. Buffalo's offense has also been iffy, and Trent Edwards is bound to have a little trouble adjusting to being back under center after about a month on the sidelines. But after beating Carolina and the Jets, I have no idea what to expect from the Bills. They could come out and win this one. But I doubt it.
My Pick: Titans -6.5. Tennessee keeps winning 23-10.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Raiders -2
O/U: 36.5
Nobody wants to watch this game, so I'll keep it short. The Chiefs are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 trips to Oakland, and are looking for revenge after the Raiders beat them earlier in the year. But without Larry Johnson, will KC have any shot? I say no. Oakland has to have some talent, as they did beat Philly earlier in the year.
My Pick: Raiders -2. Oakland wins 23-19.
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cardinals -8.5
O/U: 47
This season has been a weird one for Arizona. You know they have the talent to win big games, but they only seem to be winning on the road. And one of those home losses was to Carolina. I think they'll win this one, though, as they need to assert their dominance in the division. But can they win by 9? Seattle has been pretty bad, and if it becomes a shootout, I like the Cards' chances.
My Pick: Cards -8.5. Arizona shows off in a big way 41-13.
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Cowboys -3
O/U: 47.5
Green Bay has been very inconsistent, but this seems like one of those games that the Cowboys could lose to let the rest of the division catch up a little. There is often a letdown after a big win, and I think the Packers will have a ton to prove after a very bad loss last week. Despite Dallas' 8-2 record ATS in their last 10 against the Packers, I have to take the home underdog.
My Pick: Packers +3. Green Bay wins outright 30-24.
Philadelphia Eagles @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -1
O/U: 47
After a big loss last week, the Eagles need a win to try to keep pace in the NFC East. The Chargers, coming off a big win, may suffer a letdown. As you can tell, I'm leaning toward the Eagles. But Philly is only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against San Diego, and relies too much on big plays, which happens to be a strength of the Chargers defense (I believe they're #2 in the league with regard to big plays against). So my heart is telling me Eagles, my brain is telling me Chargers. I'm a brain type of person.
My Pick: Chargers -1. San Diego shuts down the big plays and wins 23-17.
New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 49.5
The Pats are 15-2-1 ATS in their last 18 trips to Indy, but the Colts are undefeated. You can't mess with perfection. Indy hasn't played that great in the past few weeks, but the way I see it, that means they are due for a big offensive day. Plus this is the type of game you look forward to, so nobody will be looking past this opponent, which may have been an issue against San Fran and Houston. In this case, I'm going to take the undefeated home team to stay that way, but I really have no strong inclination either way. In other words, bet on a different game.
My Pick: Colts -3. Indy wins 31-27.
Monday, November 16th:
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Ravens -10.5
O/U: 40
The Ravens are a much better team than their record indicates. The Browns's record of 1-7 reflects them quite accurately. Though the Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 trips to Cleveland, the circumstances surrounding this game (Ravens at .500...) suggest that the Ravens will be taking out some frustration on the lowly Browns. I doubt they have the offense to keep up or the defense to prevent the onslaught. This one will be over at halftime.
My Pick: Ravens -10.5. Baltimore rolls 33-10.
Byes: NYG, HOU
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
NFL Week 9 Recap
Overall SU: 85-44 (8-5 wk 9)
Week 9 ATS: 6-7
Overall ATS: 59-69-1
Back on Track
Washington Redskins @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -10
O/U: 41
My Pick: Falcons -10. Atlanta wins 27-6.
Result: Falcons 31-17
They let the Skins get closer late, but the Falcons had this one well in hand the whole way. You had to figure they would. Atlanta is a very solid team.
Back on Track, Part II
Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -3
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Cardinals +3. Arizona wins on the road 24-23.
Result: Cardinals 41-21
Yikes! I called a Cardinals win, but not a blowout. Chicago is in trouble. The D is banged up, and the offense can't win shootouts. They still have the talent to surprise some teams, but I think the playoffs are out of reach.
Befuddled...Flabbergasted...Shocked-and-Awed...
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Ravens -3
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Ravens -3. Baltimore is Crabby (pun intended). They'll roll 31-16.
Result: Bengals 17-7
How in the...What the...HUH? Baltimore was so good that after three weeks I wanted to change my Super Bowl pick to include them. And now they're 4-4. With two losses to the Bengals. Wow. I don't take Cincy for granted, and realize they're a solid team, but that still doesn't explain them beating the Ravens. The Bengals are good, but the Ravens should be elite. They just haven't been playing that way.
What is wrong with me?
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -9
O/U: 48
My Pick: Colts -9. Big game for Peyton. Indy wins 38-28.
Result: Colts 20-17
I know better than to ever take the Colts with a big spread against the Texans, as they always seem to play close games. Apparently I had a brain fart last Thursday. So this game went just as I thought it would. No surprises, as the Colts remain undefeated for their showdown with the Pats. New England could be the first team to down the Saints, too, as they'll face New Orleans in 3 weeks.
Too Close. Damn.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jaguars -6.5
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Jaguars -6.5. Jacksonville wins easily 23-10.
Result: Jags 24-21
Didn't think KC would score that many points without Johnson, but I guess I should have known better than to give nearly 7 points to a crappy team. Jacksonville is now 4-4, which is insane, as they really aren't good. Guess they've just played an easy schedule.
Green Bay, it's the Playoffs Calling. They said to tell you HAHAHA...
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Packers -9.5
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Packers -9.5. Green Bay hits 3 50+yard plays and rolls 38-13.
Result: Bucs 38-28
How does your defense let the Bucs score 38? How can your offense, the #2 quick strike attack in the league, score only 28 against the team that gives up the most big plays in the NFL? Dunno. Guess Green Bay really wants January off.
Whew
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -10.5
O/U: 46.5
My Pick: Dolphins +10.5. New England wins 31-23.
Result: Pats 27-17
Miami is an awfully good 3-5 team, and New England just found that out. But Brady has things clicking again, and the Pats are rolling toward the postseason. It remains to be seen just how good they are, but with dates against the Colts and Saints on the horizon, we will certainly find out.
Damn Panthers
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -13.5
O/U: 51.5
My Pick: Saints -13.5. At home, the Saints are just too good this year. 45-23.
Result: Saints 30-20
That #1 pass defense worked a little better than I thought it would against the Saints. Carolina had the lead at the half, but New Orleans proved to be too strong down the stretch, again winning with defense. They're a great team, but I don't think they'll be undefeated much longer. They keep getting behind, and despite the power of their offense, sooner or later someone will figure out a way to hold them down just enough to not let them back in the game.
Thank God for Late TDs
Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -10
O/U: 43
My Pick: Seahawks -10. Seattle wins it 34-21.
Result: Seahawks 32-20
I was basically wrong about this game, as it was kept much closer than I thought it would be. When I said 34-21, I meant 34-7 and some late touchdowns for the Lions, not 25-20 and a very late touchdown by the Seahawks to cover. I'll take the win, though!
The Streak Continues
San Diego Chargers @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -4.5
O/U: 47.5
My Pick: Chargers +4.5. New York wins a close one 23-21.
Result: Chargers 21-20
The way that game played out, I thought I'd be exactly right on the final score. Had Eli been able to hit a decent play in that last 15 seconds to set up a field goal, I'd have been right on. A great win for the Chargers, a tough loss for the Giants, but now that they have two weeks to think about their 4-game losing streak, I wouldn't want to be on their schedule in the second half. They'll need to go at least 5-2 to make the playoffs in a very solid NFC.
Guess that Bye was all they needed...
Tennessee Titans @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -4
O/U: 41
My Pick: 49ers -4. San Fran wins 20-10.
Result: Titans 34-27
I have been overestimating the 49ers a lot lately, but this was a case of underestimating the Titans. After a bit of encouragement from Jeff Fisher during their bye week, the Titans look like a totally different team. Guess the Manning Jersey-thing worked. San Fran needs to regroup. Every win the Cards get moves the 49ers closer to a certain 2nd place finish in the NFC West, and only 1 team from that division is going to the postseason.
Everybody's looking up at the Cowboys?
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -3
O/U: 48
My Pick: Eagles -3. Philly wins 34-30.
Result: Cowboys 20-16
Just a few weeks ago everyone was flipping out over how bad the Cowboys were playing and how they were again doing far too little with far too much talent. Now they're on top of the best division in football. It is the perfect time to be at the top, too, as their schedule looks pretty easy for the next few weeks, which will make it tough for Philly and New York to catch them. Philly lives and dies by the big play. This week, they died by it. Pressure McNabb and he can't hit the deep ball. A Simple strategy that worked to perfection.
Defending Champs til the end...
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos
Line: Steelers -3
O/U: 39.5
My Pick: Steelers -3. Pittsburgh wins 16-10.
Result: Steelers 28-10
Pittsburgh hasn't lost much talent since last season, and this week they showed it. Another big game for Mendenhall, and the defense stepped up huge. If they can beat the Bengals the second time around, Pittsburgh will be well on their way to another division title. Denver will bounce back from these two losses and will challenge for the AFC West, but it is no longer a done deal. They're only 1-up on San Diego, and the Chargers are playing with purpose.
Week 9 ATS: 6-7
Overall ATS: 59-69-1
Back on Track
Washington Redskins @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -10
O/U: 41
My Pick: Falcons -10. Atlanta wins 27-6.
Result: Falcons 31-17
They let the Skins get closer late, but the Falcons had this one well in hand the whole way. You had to figure they would. Atlanta is a very solid team.
Back on Track, Part II
Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -3
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Cardinals +3. Arizona wins on the road 24-23.
Result: Cardinals 41-21
Yikes! I called a Cardinals win, but not a blowout. Chicago is in trouble. The D is banged up, and the offense can't win shootouts. They still have the talent to surprise some teams, but I think the playoffs are out of reach.
Befuddled...Flabbergasted...Shocked-and-Awed...
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Ravens -3
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Ravens -3. Baltimore is Crabby (pun intended). They'll roll 31-16.
Result: Bengals 17-7
How in the...What the...HUH? Baltimore was so good that after three weeks I wanted to change my Super Bowl pick to include them. And now they're 4-4. With two losses to the Bengals. Wow. I don't take Cincy for granted, and realize they're a solid team, but that still doesn't explain them beating the Ravens. The Bengals are good, but the Ravens should be elite. They just haven't been playing that way.
What is wrong with me?
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -9
O/U: 48
My Pick: Colts -9. Big game for Peyton. Indy wins 38-28.
Result: Colts 20-17
I know better than to ever take the Colts with a big spread against the Texans, as they always seem to play close games. Apparently I had a brain fart last Thursday. So this game went just as I thought it would. No surprises, as the Colts remain undefeated for their showdown with the Pats. New England could be the first team to down the Saints, too, as they'll face New Orleans in 3 weeks.
Too Close. Damn.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jaguars -6.5
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Jaguars -6.5. Jacksonville wins easily 23-10.
Result: Jags 24-21
Didn't think KC would score that many points without Johnson, but I guess I should have known better than to give nearly 7 points to a crappy team. Jacksonville is now 4-4, which is insane, as they really aren't good. Guess they've just played an easy schedule.
Green Bay, it's the Playoffs Calling. They said to tell you HAHAHA...
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Packers -9.5
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Packers -9.5. Green Bay hits 3 50+yard plays and rolls 38-13.
Result: Bucs 38-28
How does your defense let the Bucs score 38? How can your offense, the #2 quick strike attack in the league, score only 28 against the team that gives up the most big plays in the NFL? Dunno. Guess Green Bay really wants January off.
Whew
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -10.5
O/U: 46.5
My Pick: Dolphins +10.5. New England wins 31-23.
Result: Pats 27-17
Miami is an awfully good 3-5 team, and New England just found that out. But Brady has things clicking again, and the Pats are rolling toward the postseason. It remains to be seen just how good they are, but with dates against the Colts and Saints on the horizon, we will certainly find out.
Damn Panthers
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -13.5
O/U: 51.5
My Pick: Saints -13.5. At home, the Saints are just too good this year. 45-23.
Result: Saints 30-20
That #1 pass defense worked a little better than I thought it would against the Saints. Carolina had the lead at the half, but New Orleans proved to be too strong down the stretch, again winning with defense. They're a great team, but I don't think they'll be undefeated much longer. They keep getting behind, and despite the power of their offense, sooner or later someone will figure out a way to hold them down just enough to not let them back in the game.
Thank God for Late TDs
Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -10
O/U: 43
My Pick: Seahawks -10. Seattle wins it 34-21.
Result: Seahawks 32-20
I was basically wrong about this game, as it was kept much closer than I thought it would be. When I said 34-21, I meant 34-7 and some late touchdowns for the Lions, not 25-20 and a very late touchdown by the Seahawks to cover. I'll take the win, though!
The Streak Continues
San Diego Chargers @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -4.5
O/U: 47.5
My Pick: Chargers +4.5. New York wins a close one 23-21.
Result: Chargers 21-20
The way that game played out, I thought I'd be exactly right on the final score. Had Eli been able to hit a decent play in that last 15 seconds to set up a field goal, I'd have been right on. A great win for the Chargers, a tough loss for the Giants, but now that they have two weeks to think about their 4-game losing streak, I wouldn't want to be on their schedule in the second half. They'll need to go at least 5-2 to make the playoffs in a very solid NFC.
Guess that Bye was all they needed...
Tennessee Titans @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -4
O/U: 41
My Pick: 49ers -4. San Fran wins 20-10.
Result: Titans 34-27
I have been overestimating the 49ers a lot lately, but this was a case of underestimating the Titans. After a bit of encouragement from Jeff Fisher during their bye week, the Titans look like a totally different team. Guess the Manning Jersey-thing worked. San Fran needs to regroup. Every win the Cards get moves the 49ers closer to a certain 2nd place finish in the NFC West, and only 1 team from that division is going to the postseason.
Everybody's looking up at the Cowboys?
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -3
O/U: 48
My Pick: Eagles -3. Philly wins 34-30.
Result: Cowboys 20-16
Just a few weeks ago everyone was flipping out over how bad the Cowboys were playing and how they were again doing far too little with far too much talent. Now they're on top of the best division in football. It is the perfect time to be at the top, too, as their schedule looks pretty easy for the next few weeks, which will make it tough for Philly and New York to catch them. Philly lives and dies by the big play. This week, they died by it. Pressure McNabb and he can't hit the deep ball. A Simple strategy that worked to perfection.
Defending Champs til the end...
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos
Line: Steelers -3
O/U: 39.5
My Pick: Steelers -3. Pittsburgh wins 16-10.
Result: Steelers 28-10
Pittsburgh hasn't lost much talent since last season, and this week they showed it. Another big game for Mendenhall, and the defense stepped up huge. If they can beat the Bengals the second time around, Pittsburgh will be well on their way to another division title. Denver will bounce back from these two losses and will challenge for the AFC West, but it is no longer a done deal. They're only 1-up on San Diego, and the Chargers are playing with purpose.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
NFL Week Nine Preview
Sunday, November 8th:
Washington Redskins @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -10
O/U: 41
Seems like a lot of points, but you never know whether or not the Redskins will score. Atlanta hasn't lost ATS at home yet this season, and since last week was the first time in the Mike Smith-era that the Falcons lost 2 in a row, it seems highly unlikely that they'll drop a third straight. My concern is whether or not they can put up enough points to win by 10. At home, in the dome, I'll say yes.
My Pick: Falcons -10. Atlanta wins 27-6.
Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -3
O/U: 44.5
So which Cardinals team will show up? The one that beat the Giants, or the one that was obliterated at home by the lowly Panthers? The Cards 3 ATS losses are all at home, and for some reason they've been surprisingly good on the road. If the Cards defense clicks, Cutler will throw a few picks and Arizona will win.
My Pick: Cardinals +3. Arizona wins on the road 24-23.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Ravens -3
O/U: 43.5
Cincy may be coming off a bye, but their recent post-bye record is a shocking 2-8 ATS, and the Ravens are still pissed about losing their last meeting. Baltimore is a far better team than their record reflects, and they need every win they can get to challenge in the AFC North. This one shouldn't even be close.
My Pick: Ravens -3. Baltimore is Crabby (pun intended). They'll roll 31-16.
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -9
O/U: 48
Houston is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 AFC South games and 8-2 ATS the last 10 times they've been an underdog. Plus they're very confident right now. This is, in some ways, the turning point of their season. If they beat Indy, they'll surely think they can make the playoffs. The problem is that Indy is coming off a bad performance, and will likely fix all of last week's offensive problems in practice before Sunday. I highly doubt the Colts will play poorly, and I think they should win this game. I just worry that a late touchdown could allow the Colts to win by 9. The big stat here is that the Colts pass D has allowed an NFL-best 3 passing TDs all year. Unless the Texans can cause a ton of damage on the ground, Indy should be able to hold their offense in check.
My Pick: Colts -9. Big game for Peyton. Indy wins 38-28.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jaguars -6.5
O/U: 41.5
This Larry Johnson controversy will make the Chiefs even worse. Without him, KC has no shot. The Jags aren't good, but if you lay a win in their lap, they'll surely take it.
My Pick: Jaguars -6.5. Jacksonville wins easily 23-10.
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Packers -9.5
O/U: 43.5
A team that loves the big play facing a team that can't stop the big play...hmm...wonder what's going to happen? This won't be close. Is it me, or does Green Bay have the easiest schedule in the league? It seems like they play a crappy team almost every week!
My Pick: Packers -9.5. Green Bay hits 3 50+yard plays and rolls 38-13.
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -10.5
O/U: 46.5
The fins are 3-0 SU and ATS against the AFC East this season, and the Pats are 0-2 ATS, 1-1 SU against the same 2 teams (NYJ, BUF). So you'd think it would be an easy pick, especially since Miami crushed the Pats IN N.E. in '08 as a 13.5 point underdog. But the Pats have been clicking on all cylinders, and have had an extra week to prepare for Miami. The Dolphins have been playing well, though, and even competed with the Saints until New Orleans Voodoo clicked in. I think they can stay with the Pats.
My Pick: Dolphins +10.5. New England wins 31-23.
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -13.5
O/U: 51.5
Carolina has the best pass defense in the league statistically, but after playing the Saints, those numbers will go up a bit. After a big win last week, are the Panthers back and ready to compete, or did they just have one good week? After losing to the Bills at home (no, I won't let them live that down...), they'll need to show me more before I believe that they're anywhere near decent. Plus Delhomme has been throwing a ton of picks this year, and it won't get any better with Darren Sharper on the other side of the ball. Even at 8-0 ATS in their last 8 trips to the Big Easy, I don't see them competing.
My Pick: Saints -13.5. At home, the Saints are just too good this year. 45-23.
Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -10
O/U: 43
Thus far, the Seahawks have blown out their two terrible opponents, but have lost to everyone else. Now they get another terrible opponent at home. I can absolutely see the Lions competing in this game, but don't think they have enough to stop the Seahawks from running away with it late.
My Pick: Seahawks -10. Seattle wins it 34-21.
San Diego Chargers @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -4.5
O/U: 47.5
I can't believe that a healthy Giants D-line has not obliterated opponents. The Giants defense is middle-of-the-pack in the NFL, yet has one of the best D-lines in recent memory. Can the once-mighty Giants lose 4 in a row? San Diego is no slouch, and is fighting for a division title of their own. I just can't get past the 4-in-a-row thing. No way the Giants lose again.
My Pick: Chargers +4.5. New York wins a close one 23-21.
Tennessee Titans @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -4
O/U: 41
The Titans say they plan to rattle off 10 in a row. I'm not discounting their ability to do so, but San Fran is not the place to get started. The 49ers are a tough team that will be able to handle a solid run game (#2 in NFL rush YPG). So Vince Young will have to beat the 49ers if te Titans are to win. He won't.
My Pick: 49ers -4. San Fran wins 20-10.
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -3
O/U: 48
Dallas is 1-5 ATS in their last six against Philly, but with divisional bragging rights on the line, I think they'll play well. The question is can Philadelphia hit a few big plays and hang on for the win, or will the Dallas defense force them to work for their points? The quick-hitting nature of the Eagles worries me, as fast scores result in a tired defense (less time to rest). Dallas can burn a tired defense. Home field advantage is a big factor in this one. The only team that has beaten the Eagles at home is New Orleans, and they are among the best teams in the NFL this year. Dallas isn't.
My Pick: Eagles -3. Philly wins 34-30.
Monday, November 9th:
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos
Line: Steelers -3
O/U: 39.5
The pick-against-your-gut-with-Denver strategy didn't work last week, but I'm willing to try it again. Denver has been great, especially at home. Even coming off a bye week Pittsburgh will struggle to get much going offensively against a great Denver D, and after losing last week, Denver wants to "get back on the horse". So I'll be picking the Steelers!
My Pick: Steelers -3. Pittsburgh wins 16-10.
Byes: BUF, CLE, MIN, NYJ, STL, OAK
Washington Redskins @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -10
O/U: 41
Seems like a lot of points, but you never know whether or not the Redskins will score. Atlanta hasn't lost ATS at home yet this season, and since last week was the first time in the Mike Smith-era that the Falcons lost 2 in a row, it seems highly unlikely that they'll drop a third straight. My concern is whether or not they can put up enough points to win by 10. At home, in the dome, I'll say yes.
My Pick: Falcons -10. Atlanta wins 27-6.
Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -3
O/U: 44.5
So which Cardinals team will show up? The one that beat the Giants, or the one that was obliterated at home by the lowly Panthers? The Cards 3 ATS losses are all at home, and for some reason they've been surprisingly good on the road. If the Cards defense clicks, Cutler will throw a few picks and Arizona will win.
My Pick: Cardinals +3. Arizona wins on the road 24-23.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Ravens -3
O/U: 43.5
Cincy may be coming off a bye, but their recent post-bye record is a shocking 2-8 ATS, and the Ravens are still pissed about losing their last meeting. Baltimore is a far better team than their record reflects, and they need every win they can get to challenge in the AFC North. This one shouldn't even be close.
My Pick: Ravens -3. Baltimore is Crabby (pun intended). They'll roll 31-16.
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -9
O/U: 48
Houston is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 AFC South games and 8-2 ATS the last 10 times they've been an underdog. Plus they're very confident right now. This is, in some ways, the turning point of their season. If they beat Indy, they'll surely think they can make the playoffs. The problem is that Indy is coming off a bad performance, and will likely fix all of last week's offensive problems in practice before Sunday. I highly doubt the Colts will play poorly, and I think they should win this game. I just worry that a late touchdown could allow the Colts to win by 9. The big stat here is that the Colts pass D has allowed an NFL-best 3 passing TDs all year. Unless the Texans can cause a ton of damage on the ground, Indy should be able to hold their offense in check.
My Pick: Colts -9. Big game for Peyton. Indy wins 38-28.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jaguars -6.5
O/U: 41.5
This Larry Johnson controversy will make the Chiefs even worse. Without him, KC has no shot. The Jags aren't good, but if you lay a win in their lap, they'll surely take it.
My Pick: Jaguars -6.5. Jacksonville wins easily 23-10.
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Packers -9.5
O/U: 43.5
A team that loves the big play facing a team that can't stop the big play...hmm...wonder what's going to happen? This won't be close. Is it me, or does Green Bay have the easiest schedule in the league? It seems like they play a crappy team almost every week!
My Pick: Packers -9.5. Green Bay hits 3 50+yard plays and rolls 38-13.
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -10.5
O/U: 46.5
The fins are 3-0 SU and ATS against the AFC East this season, and the Pats are 0-2 ATS, 1-1 SU against the same 2 teams (NYJ, BUF). So you'd think it would be an easy pick, especially since Miami crushed the Pats IN N.E. in '08 as a 13.5 point underdog. But the Pats have been clicking on all cylinders, and have had an extra week to prepare for Miami. The Dolphins have been playing well, though, and even competed with the Saints until New Orleans Voodoo clicked in. I think they can stay with the Pats.
My Pick: Dolphins +10.5. New England wins 31-23.
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -13.5
O/U: 51.5
Carolina has the best pass defense in the league statistically, but after playing the Saints, those numbers will go up a bit. After a big win last week, are the Panthers back and ready to compete, or did they just have one good week? After losing to the Bills at home (no, I won't let them live that down...), they'll need to show me more before I believe that they're anywhere near decent. Plus Delhomme has been throwing a ton of picks this year, and it won't get any better with Darren Sharper on the other side of the ball. Even at 8-0 ATS in their last 8 trips to the Big Easy, I don't see them competing.
My Pick: Saints -13.5. At home, the Saints are just too good this year. 45-23.
Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -10
O/U: 43
Thus far, the Seahawks have blown out their two terrible opponents, but have lost to everyone else. Now they get another terrible opponent at home. I can absolutely see the Lions competing in this game, but don't think they have enough to stop the Seahawks from running away with it late.
My Pick: Seahawks -10. Seattle wins it 34-21.
San Diego Chargers @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -4.5
O/U: 47.5
I can't believe that a healthy Giants D-line has not obliterated opponents. The Giants defense is middle-of-the-pack in the NFL, yet has one of the best D-lines in recent memory. Can the once-mighty Giants lose 4 in a row? San Diego is no slouch, and is fighting for a division title of their own. I just can't get past the 4-in-a-row thing. No way the Giants lose again.
My Pick: Chargers +4.5. New York wins a close one 23-21.
Tennessee Titans @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -4
O/U: 41
The Titans say they plan to rattle off 10 in a row. I'm not discounting their ability to do so, but San Fran is not the place to get started. The 49ers are a tough team that will be able to handle a solid run game (#2 in NFL rush YPG). So Vince Young will have to beat the 49ers if te Titans are to win. He won't.
My Pick: 49ers -4. San Fran wins 20-10.
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -3
O/U: 48
Dallas is 1-5 ATS in their last six against Philly, but with divisional bragging rights on the line, I think they'll play well. The question is can Philadelphia hit a few big plays and hang on for the win, or will the Dallas defense force them to work for their points? The quick-hitting nature of the Eagles worries me, as fast scores result in a tired defense (less time to rest). Dallas can burn a tired defense. Home field advantage is a big factor in this one. The only team that has beaten the Eagles at home is New Orleans, and they are among the best teams in the NFL this year. Dallas isn't.
My Pick: Eagles -3. Philly wins 34-30.
Monday, November 9th:
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos
Line: Steelers -3
O/U: 39.5
The pick-against-your-gut-with-Denver strategy didn't work last week, but I'm willing to try it again. Denver has been great, especially at home. Even coming off a bye week Pittsburgh will struggle to get much going offensively against a great Denver D, and after losing last week, Denver wants to "get back on the horse". So I'll be picking the Steelers!
My Pick: Steelers -3. Pittsburgh wins 16-10.
Byes: BUF, CLE, MIN, NYJ, STL, OAK
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
NFL Week Eight Recap
Overall SU: 77-39 (10-3 wk 8)
Week 8 ATS: 6-7
Overall ATS: 53-62-1
The Vacation Ends
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -3
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Broncos +3. Baltimore wins anyway 17-16.
Result: Ravens 30-7
Not a huge surprise, although I am a bit shocked that the Bronco defense gave up so many points in the second half. I went against my gut and paid for it. Oh well.
Cowboy Up
Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -9-5
O/U: 46
My pick: Cowboys -9.5. Dallas wins 31-21.
Result: Cowboys 38-17
All of a sudden the Cowboys look much better, and the idea of them challenging the Eagles and Giants for the NFC East crown isn't so ridiculous. Seattle has been far worse than advertised, and I'm not sure what to make of them.
Finally a win!
St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions
Line: Lions -5
O/U: N/A
My Pick: Rams win it 24-20.
Result: Rams 17-10
Glad I went with the Rams. These are both bad teams, but now it looks less likely that the Lions 0-16 mark from a year ago will be matched. I'd bet on at least one 1-15 squad though.
Where did the Jets go?
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -3.5
O/U: 40.5
My Pick: Jets -3.5. New York wins 26-20.
Result: Dolphins 30-25
Granted 21 of the 30 dolphin points were scored strangely, but what in the world happened to the Jets? They weren't supposed to be any good pre-season, but 3 weeks into the year they were the talk of the league. Now they're .500, have lost 3 times in the AFC East (all to crappy teams), and are not even in the playoff picture as far as I'm concerned.
Now that that's out of the way...
San Francisco 49ers @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -12.5
O/U: 44
My Pick: 49ers +12.5. Too many points. Indy wins 28-17.
Result: Colts 18-14
I figured this would be a close game. As it turns out, this could be classified as "that one game every great team will inevitably have in which nothing seems to work." Peyton threw no TD passes. Addai had one, though, and the defense held, so the Colts survived their "bad week" and remained undefeated. That is a huge testament to Indy, and makes me think that, unless they stumble, they could remain unbeaten.
Brown is the color of the way Cleveland plays every week...
Cleveland Browns @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -13
O/U: 40
My Pick: Browns +13.
Chicago wins 21-10.
Result: Bears 30-6
Not sure why I thought this would be closer. My bad.
It was half good...
Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Texans -3.5
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Texans -3.5. Houston picks up the road win 27-13.
Result: Texans 31-10
Buffalo led at the half, but once the defense began to falter, there was no way the Buffalo O could get them back into it. Consider that the 10 points were all turnover-related, and the touchdown was a simple end-around to TO from the 30 yard line immediately after an interception. The Bills may as well start punting on 1st down to give their defense more chances to score...
Wow...
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: 0
O/U: 44
My Pick: Giants +0. New York wins, but it's never easy in Philly. 23-21.
Result: Eagles 40-17
I can't believe the Giants' D has been so bad the last 3 weeks. I'm sure they'll snap out of it, but with such a stellar defensive line you would expect them to put more pressure on the opposition's QB. When they don't, big plays result. Now they are realizing how important Steve Spagnuolo was. Philly is a potentially elite team, but after losing to the Raiders, I never know when they'll show up. Indy survived its bad week in week 8...Philly failed to survive week 6 in Oakland. That says a lot about supporting personnel and coaching. When the stars play poorly, will the coaching staff respond with different looks and will the secondary players step up? In Philly's case, they didn't.
Why can't San Diego Blow Out Oakland?
Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -16.5
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Chargers -16.5. San Diego rolls again 33-10.
Result: Chargers 24-16
This is pathetic. Everyone else can blow out the Raiders, why not San Diego? Oakland has now beaten the spread against the Bolts twice this year. San Diego made a statement in KC, but needs another. Nobody is scared of the team that beat Oakland by 8 at home.
Finally
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 45
My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee gets off the shnide with a 23-17 win.
Result: Titans 30-13
Had I known Young was starting, I may have thought about this one a little harder. I guess he just needed the confidence that comes from knowing he's the starter, as he played quite well. You had to know Tennessee was better than the Jags, but it is good to finally see them put it all together.
What the hell was that?
Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cards -10
O/U: 41
My Pick: Cards -10. Arizona continues to click on all cylinders, winning 34-17.
Result: Panthers 34-21
Not only did the Cardinals' D not show up one week after beating the Giants, but all of a sudden Carolina decided not to suck for a week. 34 points? After they scored 9 against the Bills and lost at home? I hate inconsistency. It makes games impossible to pick.
Favred Again
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -3
O/U: 47.5
My Pick: Vikings +3. Minny wins 30-23.
Result: Vikings 38-26
I had a feeling Brett would do well back at Lambeau. The Vikings are a very good team, but they have to stop letting opponents back into games. If the Vikings could shut the door defensively and not let 21-point leads salt away, requiring Brett to go back out and put up more points, they'd be a near-lock for the NFC title game.
Still Perfect
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -10
O/U: 54
My Pick: Saints -10. I want it to be a good game, but the Saints are too good. They win going away, 42-27.
Result: Saints 35-27
I was one touchdown away from a perfect pick. New Orleans could only manage 7 points in the second half, which is why I ended up losing ATS. The Falcons' D is solid, and they should be a playoff team, but unfortunately their schedule has conspired against them lately. Now that they have a few easier games, they should get back to winning. I see them at 7-4 after week 12; we'll see where they go from there.
Week 8 ATS: 6-7
Overall ATS: 53-62-1
The Vacation Ends
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -3
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Broncos +3. Baltimore wins anyway 17-16.
Result: Ravens 30-7
Not a huge surprise, although I am a bit shocked that the Bronco defense gave up so many points in the second half. I went against my gut and paid for it. Oh well.
Cowboy Up
Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -9-5
O/U: 46
My pick: Cowboys -9.5. Dallas wins 31-21.
Result: Cowboys 38-17
All of a sudden the Cowboys look much better, and the idea of them challenging the Eagles and Giants for the NFC East crown isn't so ridiculous. Seattle has been far worse than advertised, and I'm not sure what to make of them.
Finally a win!
St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions
Line: Lions -5
O/U: N/A
My Pick: Rams win it 24-20.
Result: Rams 17-10
Glad I went with the Rams. These are both bad teams, but now it looks less likely that the Lions 0-16 mark from a year ago will be matched. I'd bet on at least one 1-15 squad though.
Where did the Jets go?
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -3.5
O/U: 40.5
My Pick: Jets -3.5. New York wins 26-20.
Result: Dolphins 30-25
Granted 21 of the 30 dolphin points were scored strangely, but what in the world happened to the Jets? They weren't supposed to be any good pre-season, but 3 weeks into the year they were the talk of the league. Now they're .500, have lost 3 times in the AFC East (all to crappy teams), and are not even in the playoff picture as far as I'm concerned.
Now that that's out of the way...
San Francisco 49ers @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -12.5
O/U: 44
My Pick: 49ers +12.5. Too many points. Indy wins 28-17.
Result: Colts 18-14
I figured this would be a close game. As it turns out, this could be classified as "that one game every great team will inevitably have in which nothing seems to work." Peyton threw no TD passes. Addai had one, though, and the defense held, so the Colts survived their "bad week" and remained undefeated. That is a huge testament to Indy, and makes me think that, unless they stumble, they could remain unbeaten.
Brown is the color of the way Cleveland plays every week...
Cleveland Browns @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -13
O/U: 40
My Pick: Browns +13.
Chicago wins 21-10.
Result: Bears 30-6
Not sure why I thought this would be closer. My bad.
It was half good...
Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Texans -3.5
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Texans -3.5. Houston picks up the road win 27-13.
Result: Texans 31-10
Buffalo led at the half, but once the defense began to falter, there was no way the Buffalo O could get them back into it. Consider that the 10 points were all turnover-related, and the touchdown was a simple end-around to TO from the 30 yard line immediately after an interception. The Bills may as well start punting on 1st down to give their defense more chances to score...
Wow...
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: 0
O/U: 44
My Pick: Giants +0. New York wins, but it's never easy in Philly. 23-21.
Result: Eagles 40-17
I can't believe the Giants' D has been so bad the last 3 weeks. I'm sure they'll snap out of it, but with such a stellar defensive line you would expect them to put more pressure on the opposition's QB. When they don't, big plays result. Now they are realizing how important Steve Spagnuolo was. Philly is a potentially elite team, but after losing to the Raiders, I never know when they'll show up. Indy survived its bad week in week 8...Philly failed to survive week 6 in Oakland. That says a lot about supporting personnel and coaching. When the stars play poorly, will the coaching staff respond with different looks and will the secondary players step up? In Philly's case, they didn't.
Why can't San Diego Blow Out Oakland?
Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -16.5
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Chargers -16.5. San Diego rolls again 33-10.
Result: Chargers 24-16
This is pathetic. Everyone else can blow out the Raiders, why not San Diego? Oakland has now beaten the spread against the Bolts twice this year. San Diego made a statement in KC, but needs another. Nobody is scared of the team that beat Oakland by 8 at home.
Finally
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 45
My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee gets off the shnide with a 23-17 win.
Result: Titans 30-13
Had I known Young was starting, I may have thought about this one a little harder. I guess he just needed the confidence that comes from knowing he's the starter, as he played quite well. You had to know Tennessee was better than the Jags, but it is good to finally see them put it all together.
What the hell was that?
Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cards -10
O/U: 41
My Pick: Cards -10. Arizona continues to click on all cylinders, winning 34-17.
Result: Panthers 34-21
Not only did the Cardinals' D not show up one week after beating the Giants, but all of a sudden Carolina decided not to suck for a week. 34 points? After they scored 9 against the Bills and lost at home? I hate inconsistency. It makes games impossible to pick.
Favred Again
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -3
O/U: 47.5
My Pick: Vikings +3. Minny wins 30-23.
Result: Vikings 38-26
I had a feeling Brett would do well back at Lambeau. The Vikings are a very good team, but they have to stop letting opponents back into games. If the Vikings could shut the door defensively and not let 21-point leads salt away, requiring Brett to go back out and put up more points, they'd be a near-lock for the NFC title game.
Still Perfect
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -10
O/U: 54
My Pick: Saints -10. I want it to be a good game, but the Saints are too good. They win going away, 42-27.
Result: Saints 35-27
I was one touchdown away from a perfect pick. New Orleans could only manage 7 points in the second half, which is why I ended up losing ATS. The Falcons' D is solid, and they should be a playoff team, but unfortunately their schedule has conspired against them lately. Now that they have a few easier games, they should get back to winning. I see them at 7-4 after week 12; we'll see where they go from there.
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