NFL Week Eleven Preview

Thursday, November 19th:

Miami Dolphins @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Carolina -3
O/U: 42.5
Carolina has been solid the past few weeks, and Miami's loss of Ronnie Brown really takes the teeth out of the wildcat. Don't forget that Patrick Cobbs was placed on IR for the Fins after week 5, so without Brown they'll have to turn to Pat White more often (if they stick with the wildcat). He presents a much more viable passing option out of that formation, and after working in a spread offense in college, he is used to that type of set and may be a pleasant surprise when thrown into the lineup for more plays. But he's also a rookie. I wouldn't expect any miracles, at least not right away, as defenses will simply key on stopping Ricky Williams and will make Pat White or Chad Henne try to beat them. The Fins are 3-0 SU and ATS lifetime against the Panthers, but unless Delhomme starts throwing INTs again, this one should be all Panthers, who lost only one game ATS at home all of last season.
My Pick: Panthers -3. Carolina wins at home 24-13.

Sunday, November 22nd:

Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Colts -1
O/U: 44
This was a game I truly wanted to get creative with. The Colts dodged a bullet last week, and I don't think they're going to finish the year undefeated. The trick is picking their first loss. Baltimore was the best ATS team in the league last year (12-3-1), yet has fallen off this season, despite having an improved offense, and is just 6-3 ATS. I want to pick them to win this game, but they've had some big issues lately on offense, able to score only 16 against the Browns after scoring just 7 against the Bengals. Their win against Denver looks less attractive right now, too, as the Broncos have quickly gone downhill. The defense is aging quickly, and with one of their younger star defenders, Terrell Suggs (27), out this week, it may be tough to stop one of the league's best offenses. You never know when Ed Reed is going to step up and grab a couple of INT returns for touchdowns, but that's the sort of thing you can't predict. Given their age and recent struggles, and the fact that they're the #13 pass D in the league, I don't think this matchup favors the Ravens. And the Colts are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five against Baltimore, so I guess the mystique of playing in the franchise's former home doesn't affect anything.
My Pick: Colts -1. Indy wins 24-20.

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Saints -11
O/U: 51
New Orleans beat the spread in its first 6 games, but has now lost ATS 3 straight. Tampa is the reverse, losing to the spread in all but 1 of its first 7, and now riding a 2 game ATS winning streak. The Saints offense has looked a bit off the past few weeks, but heading down to Tampa to face a team that has been letting up big plays all season long might be the perfect cure. The spread streaks intrigue me, and although I thought there was no way in hell the Rams would beat the spread against New Orleans last week, I REALLY don't see Tampa pulling it off, no matter how confident they are right now. Colston was sick last week and caught only 2 balls, and unless the Saints want to take a chance and rest half of their starters again, they should roll.
My Pick: Saints -11. New Orleans gets back into the 40's...42-17.

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -6.5
O/U: 46
What happens when a penetrable force meets a moveable object? In other words, these two teams have each been playing terribly...so which one will find a way to blow it? The Giants have lost four in a row, but coming off of their bye week should find a way to pull themselves together. Atlanta should not have lost to Carolina last week, and now has to go 5-2 the rest of the way just to have a shot at a wild card. With games @NYG and vs. NO still left, it's not going to be easy. The Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 trips to Jersey to face the Giants, and I think that will be the case again unless Michael Turner's ankle injury keeps him out.
My Pick: Falcons +6.5. New York still wins 21-17.

Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -10.5
O/U: 46
Must be nice to play doormats two weeks in a row. Seattle hasn't been good; Minnesota has. They stuttered a little bit offensively last week against Detroit, but were eventually able to beat the big spread. I think they'll be better this week. Favre is clicking with his receivers, making the Vikings a fun team to watch and a very tough team to beat. And that defense is awfully good.
My Pick: Vikings 31-13.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Steelers -10
O/U: 40
On paper, the Chiefs should be terrible without Larry Johnson. In reality, they've been ok, and have beaten the spread in both games since his departure. Pittsburgh is unquestionably a great team, but is surprisingly only 3-6 ATS this year despite a 6-3 record. I hesitate to pick them in such a circumstance (bad ATS on the road against a team that can surprise people), but the franchise is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 against KC, and this is the type of offense that breaks out of its shell every now and then and scores a bunch of points. I think this is the week for that result, as they have to be upset that they were held to only field goals against the Bungles.
My Pick: Steelers -10. Pittsburgh rolls 33-10.

Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jaguars -9
O/U: 42.5
Nice of the oddsmakers to make this an easy pick for me. Buffalo usually has success against Jacksonville, especially in Jacksonville (road team has won 6 of 9 meetings). I don't think Jauron's firing will mean a guaranteed loss, and although the Bills have no offense, they do have the D to stop Garrard and the Jags. I have no idea how the Jags are 5-4 right now, but I don't think it will last long.
My Pick: Bills +9. Buffalo wins outright 17-16.

San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -6.5
O/U: 42
After a spectacular outing by the Green Bay defense last week, I am having trouble justifying a 49ers upset. How can Frank Gore and Alex Smith gash a defense that just held the Cowboys to 7 points? In this league, however, you never know what can happen, and the Packers are wildly inconsistent. The 49ers are 2-0 ATS vs. the NFC North thus far, and should keep this game close. My concern isn't with the possibility that the Packers will blow out the 49ers...it's with whether or not the 49ers can win outright.
My Pick: 49ers +6.5. Green Bay still wins 16-13.

Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions
Line: Lions -3.5
O/U: 38.5
Detroit has played better than Cleveland as a whole, and Stafford should be able to get enough offense together to beat the Browns. But will it be by 4 or more? My guess is no, especially after how well the Cleveland defense held down the Ravens last week. And I wouldn't be surprised if the Browns won outright.
My Pick: Browns +3.5. Detroit wins 13-10.

Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -11
O/U: 41.5
Dallas struggled against Green Bay's defense, and Washington's is comparable. A little better than GB in the secondary, a little worse against the run, but overall #5 in YPG as compared to #4 Green Bay. So will Romo put it back together? We know Washington won't score too many points, but that doesn't mean it won't be close. Washington has only failed to beat the spread twice as an underdog thus far, and generally plays close games, which is why they have been unable to beat the spread as a favorite; the games have been too close. The Skins are also 6-2 ATS in their last 8 against Dallas. I'm not picking the upset, but I do think the spread is too big unless the Cowboys can find a way to break out of their shell offensively.
My Pick: Redskins +11. Dallas wins 23-13.

Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Cardinals -9
O/U: 46.5
The Cards have been unstoppable on the road this year (4-0 SU and ATS). The Rams are awful and play on turf in a dome, which means that a team with a great passing attack and excellent receivers (e.g. Arizona) could have a field day. It didn't work for New Orleans, but I believe they were looking past the Rams and resting some players. It's a division game for Arizona and another chance to cement themselves at the top of their division, so I think they'll be prepared.
My Pick: Cardinals -9. Arizona rolls 38-17.

San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos
Line: N/A
O/U: N/A
This game has no lines yet because Kyle Orton is still questionable. At last report, he had torn ligaments but was optimistic that he could play anyway. My guess is he'll try, but they'll still get creamed by the red-hot Chargers who are looking to grab the reigns of the AFC West. No matter what happens, I'm sure the Chargers will be favored. As usual, whatever my score prediction is will be calculated against the final line for the game to determine whether or not I was right. Since San Diego will no doubt be favored, and my gut feeling is to say they'll win, this will be an easy pick. I have to go against my gut whenever the Broncos are involved, as I was again reminded of last week.
My Pick: Broncos win 31-24.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Bengals -9.5
O/U: 36
Like the Steelers, the Bengals failed to score an offensive touchdown last week and will likely be looking to put a bunch of points on the board against an inferior opponent out of the AFC West. The defense, unless it isn't focused, should completely stop the Raiders' O. The Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against OAK, and I can't see that changing. But the Raiders did beat Philly, so I hesitate to take them too lightly.
My Pick: Bengals -9.5. Cincy wins 28-6.

New York Jets @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -10.5
O/U: 45
New England is pissed that they lost last week, pissed at the Jets for beating them in Week 2, and pissed that the whole world is second guessing their coach. The Jets have been terrible since week 3 except for a solid performance in Oakland, which doesn't really count for much. They're 1-5 ATS in their last 6, and have no business competing with the Pats. They may be amped up for this game and keep it close, but I wouldn't count on it after the way they've been playing.
My Pick: Pats -10.5. New England crushes the Jets 38-14.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears
Line: Eagles -3
O/U: 45
Usually I would be very careful and pick the home underdog, especially when it's the Bears (4-1 ATS last 5 as home dog) but I just can't see the Eagles, picked to be one of the best teams in the league, losing 3 in a row. The Eagles have won 12 of their last 15 against the NFC North, and must win this game to keep pace in their division and avoid the fall back to .500. They also need to prove they can win without Westbrook, who will likely miss the rest of the year. I'd love to see some wildcat packages using Michael Vick, but that isn't Andy Reid's coaching style, so I don't see it happening despite the positive boost it could give that offense. I think they'll hit a few big plays this week and the defense will keep them ahead.
My Pick: Eagles -3. Philly wins 24-17.

Monday, November 23rd:

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -4.5
O/U: 48
The Texans got the better of Tennessee last time, but this is a rejuvenated Titans football team that should be looked at the way they would have been at the end of last season when they were 13-3. But one of those 3 losses last season came @HOU. This is another game I prefer to look at based on percentages. Tennessee is highly confident and motivated and wants to win ten-in-a-row to finish the year. I think they chances they win outright or lose by 4 or less are far greater than the chances that they get blown out.
My Pick: Titans +4.5. Tennessee wins outright 24-20.