NFL Week Nine Preview

Sunday, November 8th:

Washington Redskins @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -10
O/U: 41
Seems like a lot of points, but you never know whether or not the Redskins will score. Atlanta hasn't lost ATS at home yet this season, and since last week was the first time in the Mike Smith-era that the Falcons lost 2 in a row, it seems highly unlikely that they'll drop a third straight. My concern is whether or not they can put up enough points to win by 10. At home, in the dome, I'll say yes.
My Pick: Falcons -10. Atlanta wins 27-6.

Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -3
O/U: 44.5
So which Cardinals team will show up? The one that beat the Giants, or the one that was obliterated at home by the lowly Panthers? The Cards 3 ATS losses are all at home, and for some reason they've been surprisingly good on the road. If the Cards defense clicks, Cutler will throw a few picks and Arizona will win.
My Pick: Cardinals +3. Arizona wins on the road 24-23.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Ravens -3
O/U: 43.5
Cincy may be coming off a bye, but their recent post-bye record is a shocking 2-8 ATS, and the Ravens are still pissed about losing their last meeting. Baltimore is a far better team than their record reflects, and they need every win they can get to challenge in the AFC North. This one shouldn't even be close.
My Pick: Ravens -3. Baltimore is Crabby (pun intended). They'll roll 31-16.

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -9
O/U: 48
Houston is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 AFC South games and 8-2 ATS the last 10 times they've been an underdog. Plus they're very confident right now. This is, in some ways, the turning point of their season. If they beat Indy, they'll surely think they can make the playoffs. The problem is that Indy is coming off a bad performance, and will likely fix all of last week's offensive problems in practice before Sunday. I highly doubt the Colts will play poorly, and I think they should win this game. I just worry that a late touchdown could allow the Colts to win by 9. The big stat here is that the Colts pass D has allowed an NFL-best 3 passing TDs all year. Unless the Texans can cause a ton of damage on the ground, Indy should be able to hold their offense in check.
My Pick: Colts -9. Big game for Peyton. Indy wins 38-28.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jaguars -6.5
O/U: 41.5
This Larry Johnson controversy will make the Chiefs even worse. Without him, KC has no shot. The Jags aren't good, but if you lay a win in their lap, they'll surely take it.
My Pick: Jaguars -6.5. Jacksonville wins easily 23-10.

Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Packers -9.5
O/U: 43.5
A team that loves the big play facing a team that can't stop the big play...hmm...wonder what's going to happen? This won't be close. Is it me, or does Green Bay have the easiest schedule in the league? It seems like they play a crappy team almost every week!
My Pick: Packers -9.5. Green Bay hits 3 50+yard plays and rolls 38-13.

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -10.5
O/U: 46.5
The fins are 3-0 SU and ATS against the AFC East this season, and the Pats are 0-2 ATS, 1-1 SU against the same 2 teams (NYJ, BUF). So you'd think it would be an easy pick, especially since Miami crushed the Pats IN N.E. in '08 as a 13.5 point underdog. But the Pats have been clicking on all cylinders, and have had an extra week to prepare for Miami. The Dolphins have been playing well, though, and even competed with the Saints until New Orleans Voodoo clicked in. I think they can stay with the Pats.
My Pick: Dolphins +10.5. New England wins 31-23.

Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -13.5
O/U: 51.5
Carolina has the best pass defense in the league statistically, but after playing the Saints, those numbers will go up a bit. After a big win last week, are the Panthers back and ready to compete, or did they just have one good week? After losing to the Bills at home (no, I won't let them live that down...), they'll need to show me more before I believe that they're anywhere near decent. Plus Delhomme has been throwing a ton of picks this year, and it won't get any better with Darren Sharper on the other side of the ball. Even at 8-0 ATS in their last 8 trips to the Big Easy, I don't see them competing.
My Pick: Saints -13.5. At home, the Saints are just too good this year. 45-23.

Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -10
O/U: 43
Thus far, the Seahawks have blown out their two terrible opponents, but have lost to everyone else. Now they get another terrible opponent at home. I can absolutely see the Lions competing in this game, but don't think they have enough to stop the Seahawks from running away with it late.
My Pick: Seahawks -10. Seattle wins it 34-21.

San Diego Chargers @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -4.5
O/U: 47.5
I can't believe that a healthy Giants D-line has not obliterated opponents. The Giants defense is middle-of-the-pack in the NFL, yet has one of the best D-lines in recent memory. Can the once-mighty Giants lose 4 in a row? San Diego is no slouch, and is fighting for a division title of their own. I just can't get past the 4-in-a-row thing. No way the Giants lose again.
My Pick: Chargers +4.5. New York wins a close one 23-21.

Tennessee Titans @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -4
O/U: 41
The Titans say they plan to rattle off 10 in a row. I'm not discounting their ability to do so, but San Fran is not the place to get started. The 49ers are a tough team that will be able to handle a solid run game (#2 in NFL rush YPG). So Vince Young will have to beat the 49ers if te Titans are to win. He won't.
My Pick: 49ers -4. San Fran wins 20-10.

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -3
O/U: 48
Dallas is 1-5 ATS in their last six against Philly, but with divisional bragging rights on the line, I think they'll play well. The question is can Philadelphia hit a few big plays and hang on for the win, or will the Dallas defense force them to work for their points? The quick-hitting nature of the Eagles worries me, as fast scores result in a tired defense (less time to rest). Dallas can burn a tired defense. Home field advantage is a big factor in this one. The only team that has beaten the Eagles at home is New Orleans, and they are among the best teams in the NFL this year. Dallas isn't.
My Pick: Eagles -3. Philly wins 34-30.

Monday, November 9th:

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos
Line: Steelers -3
O/U: 39.5
The pick-against-your-gut-with-Denver strategy didn't work last week, but I'm willing to try it again. Denver has been great, especially at home. Even coming off a bye week Pittsburgh will struggle to get much going offensively against a great Denver D, and after losing last week, Denver wants to "get back on the horse". So I'll be picking the Steelers!
My Pick: Steelers -3. Pittsburgh wins 16-10.

Byes: BUF, CLE, MIN, NYJ, STL, OAK