NFL Week Ten Recap

Overall SU: 94-50 (9-6 wk 10)
Week 10 ATS: 7-8
Overall ATS: 66-77-1

Nice Offense...
Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers 3.5
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Bears +3.5. Bears win outright 24-20.
Result: 49ers 10-6
Both teams had been playing games Over, so this was a little out of character despite both having offensive issues and decent defenses. Had I known it would be low scoring, I would have gone with the 49ers. Cutler's 5 INTs didn't help, either.

NFC South Wrapped Up
Atlanta Falcons @Carolina Panthers
Line: Falcons -1.5
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Falcons -1.5. Atlanta wins 21-17.
Result: Panthers 28-19
Despite it being only week 10, this was a must win game for the Falcons. With 7 games left, they are now 4 games out in the division and have, to this point, lost the tiebreaker, so it might as well be 5. Atlanta needs to hope Michael Turner isn't badly injured, and will then need to make a push just to have a shot at a wild card. This is a team that had very high expectations earlier in the year, so I don't think they'll give up, but it will be an uphill battle. Carolina, much like Tennessee, seems to be back to last season's form all of a sudden and could keep shocking good teams. Way to make my job tougher...

Barely...
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -16.5
O/U: 47
My Pick: Vikings -16.5. Minnesota rolls 42-17.
Result: Vikings 27-10
The Lions defense performed admirably, and for most of the game kept them within striking distance. Thankfully the Vikings were able to pull away and beat the spread.

Knew It
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -10
O/U: 43
My Pick: Bucs +10. Miami still wins 17-13.
Result: Dolphins 25-23
The Bucs are a bit more dangerous now that they've tasted "winning". Miami almost, and maybe should have, lost this game. They had trouble at home against easier opponents last year...maybe they're getting too comfortable in the balmy Florida sun?

Jets continue sliding
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -7
O/U: 40.5
My Pick: Jets -7. New York wins 30-10.
Result: Jaguars 24-22
Aside from the MJD play that everyone keeps talking about, this was a pretty good game for Jacksonville. Even with the Jets having issues lately I thought they'd handle the Jags easily. I was obviously mistaken. New York somehow began 3-0 behind a stellar defense that has since been figured out by everyone but the Raiders. I know they have the talent to win against solid teams, but it will be hard to pick them from here on out due to their inconsistency on both sides of the ball.

Wow.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -7
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Steelers -7. Pittsburgh asserts their dominance, 27-14.
Result: Bengals 18-12
Analysts spoke all morning of how Cincinnati badly wanted this game but likely lacked the toughness to win a smashmouth game against the defending champs. Guess Cincy's tougher than everyone thought! And Ochocinco's prediction of 12 wins is also looking pretty darn good right about now. They have all-but wrapped up the division by earning the tiebreaker against both Pittsburgh and Baltimore, but more importantly they're an extremely confident team right now. Pittsburgh will be fine, and should get into the playoffs despite this loss, but for a stellar defensive team to lose a mostly defensive game must sting a little. And they have to stop letting up return TDs. 7 straight games...I'm guessing that hasn't happened to an NFL team in a very long time.

Come on...
New Orleans @ St. Louis
Line: Saints -13.5
O/U: 50
My Pick: Saints -13.5. New Orleans likes domes. Saints 45-10.
Result: Saints 28-23
After a few weeks of less-than-stellar offensive play, I thought the Saints would take this opportunity to air it out and go for a blowout. Guess they decided to rest people instead. I had no idea thier secondary would be so depleted, and would guess that had they been playing a team above .500, Sharper would have played. The offense was shut down much more than I expected, but the real surprise was that the Saints D allowed the Rams to stay in the game throughout. Awful. Still 9-0 though, which I suppose is all that matters to them.

Why would I go against a proven strategy?
Denver Broncos @ Washington Redskins
Line: Broncos -3.5
O/U: 37
My Pick: Broncos -3.5. Denver has to win, right? 23-0.
Result: Redskins 27-17
Only once this season have I been wrong when employing my strategy of picking directly against my gut when the Broncos are involved. This week I thought it was such a done deal that I went with my gut...and look what happened. I have no idea what happened to the Denver D, but for one of the league's best defenses to allow the Redskins to score 10 points more than they've scored in any single game all year is disgraceful. Denver is on the way down...I'll bet they miss the playoffs, especially if Orton is out for any length of time.

No miracle this time...
Buffalo Bills @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -6.5
O/U: 41
My Pick: Titans -6.5. Tennessee keeps winning 23-10.
Result: Titans 41-17
Now the win streak is at 3. Can the Titans get to 10? Probably not. But it would be funny if they won 10 in a row and still missed the postseason. 10-6 is no guarantee.

Don't care...
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Raiders -2
O/U: 36.5
My Pick: Raiders -2. Oakland wins 23-19.
Result: Chiefs 16-10
Thought about picking the Chiefs, but the Larry Johnson thing is still in the back of my head. I guess they can win without him when the other team has no offense.

How far can they go this year?
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cardinals -8.5
O/U: 47
My Pick: Cards -8.5. Arizona shows off in a big way 41-13.
Result: Cardinals 31-20
Now that they have a decent NFC West lead, I wonder where the Cards will end up. They seem a little worse than last year, but have all the confidence gained from a Super Bowl run. Guess all the analysts were wrong about Seattle making a run this year. I guess a team needs more than TJ Housh to be a contender.

Haha, knew it.
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Cowboys -3
O/U: 47.5
My Pick: Packers +3. Green Bay wins outright 30-24.
Result: Packers 17-7
Typical Cowboys...they know they're not the best team in the East, so they have to lose some games to let everyone catch up. Green Bay won it defensively, which I didn't expect, but showed that they certainly have the talent to beat most teams in the league when their offensive line holds up.

Another good call
Philadelphia Eagles @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -1
O/U: 47
My Pick: Chargers -1. San Diego shuts down the big plays and wins 23-17.
Result: Chargers 31-23
Philadelphia is capable of losing consecutive games, and San Diego certainly had the talent to win this one at home. So it wasn't that outlandish of a pick, even though many people in upstate New York felt the Eagles would win it easily. San Diego has begun to hit their stride, and I think they will roll to the AFC West title.

Stupid Points
New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 49.5
My Pick: Colts -3. Indy wins 31-27.
Result: Colts 35-34
I had the feeling the Colts would win, but forgot to consider that they may win by less than 3. At least they're still undefeated and the Pats look foolish. At one point during the game I posed that New England looked so solid that they might not lose again. I stand by that, despite having lost in Indy. If Brady can keep his offense moving the ball like they did in the first half, the Pats will be tough to stop.

Defensive Shutout, Offensive Ineptitude, or Both? (Hint: It was both)
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Ravens -10.5
O/U: 40
My Pick: Ravens -10.5. Baltimore rolls 33-10.
Result: Ravens 16-0
I am now a little worried about the Ravens offense, after scoring only 10 points against the Browns (3 of which were from close range after an INT, too...). Baltimore's defense isn't quite what they once were, and I wonder if the offense has enough juice left to put up solid numbers against good teams. We'll find out next week when Indy comes to town. I like Baltimore to break the streak. There is a ton of history involved, as the Colts were formerly from Baltimore, and Ray Lewis and the Ravens D would love nothing more than to end the Colts' streak. Don't know if it will happen, but I will likely pick the Ravens in that game barring significant trend or injury information to the contrary.