NFL Week Ten Preview

Thursday, November 12th:

Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers 3.5
O/U: 43.5
The Bears have done better as a favorite than as an underdog this season (3-1 vs. 1-3) and are 0-6 SU and ATS in their last 6 trips to San Fran, having been shut out in 3 of those 6 games. The problem with taking the 49ers is that I feel the odds they will win by less than 3.5 or will lose are about 75%, vs. about a 25% chance that they'll win by 4+. I'm also worried that the Bears will play well after a few bad weeks, especially with the added fight put into them by Vernon Davis' comments this past week. And when the 49ers give up 16 or more, they lose. So considering that both teams have played Over 4 of their last 6, the Bears seem like a good choice.
My Pick: Bears +3.5. Bears win outright 24-20.

Sunday, November 15th:

Atlanta Falcons @Carolina Panthers
Line: Falcons -1.5
O/U: 43.5
Carolina has been playing much better lately, but the Falcons are chasing an undefeated team at the top of the division, and can't lose games like this one. Carolina is historically tough at home, but has yet to get a home ATS win yet this season. These teams have played 12 of their last 14 in Carolina Under, and Atlanta has won outright in 3 of their last 5 trips to Carolina. And that was when Carolina was the better team, which is far from the case this year. Both teams will run the ball a bunch, but as long as Michael Turner can have a big game and Matt Ryan doesn't make any mistakes, the Falcons should win it.
My Pick: Falcons -1.5. Atlanta wins 21-17.

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -16.5
O/U: 47
So you're telling me that a rested Favre will lead the Vikings into a home game agianst the Lions after having two weeks to think about it...umm...the spread would need to be 20 to lure me away from picking Vikings. If they trip up, it was unforeseeable.
My Pick: Vikings -16.5. Minnesota rolls 42-17.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Dolphins -10
O/U: 43
I'm not sure what the Bucs will do against the Wildcat, but Miami tends to play close games, and after winning last week, I just don't see the Bucs getting beaten by a ton. Add to that the fact that Miami has played its last 3 games against the NFC South WAY Under, and the odds that they'll win by 10 decrease even more. Tampa's defense isn't great, but I think the win against Green Bay gives them a bit of confidence. The Bucs are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the Fins.
My Pick: Bucs +10. Miami still wins 17-13.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -7
O/U: 40.5
The Jags are awful, and have no business being over .500. Which means that Karma will force them to lose this game. The Jets also have a very good defense that has had an extra week to gameplan for a Jaguars offense that likely won't be surprising anyone. As long as Sanchez plays OK, the Jets will roll.
My Pick: Jets -7. New York wins 30-10.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -7
O/U: 41.5
Before the season began, we would have never thought this would be a big game. But now, with both teams at 6-2, it is a HUGE game and could determine the fate of the AFC North in only the 10th week of the season. If Cincy can win and sweep the Steelers, the division is all but theirs unless they stumble mightily. Don't bet on it, though. Pittsburgh has won a couple big games lately (Minnesota, @Denver) and the Steeler defense is looking stellar once again. Not to mention the Steelers want revenge for their loss earlier in the year.
My Pick: Steelers -7. Pittsburgh asserts their dominance, 27-14.

New Orleans @ St. Louis
Line: Saints -13.5
O/U: 50
There isn't a spread big enough for this one. Screw trends and all that other B.S....this one's obvious, and if it goes down any differently, I won't be the only one shocked.
My Pick: Saints -13.5. New Orleans likes domes. Saints 45-10.

Denver Broncos @ Washington Redskins
Line: Broncos -3.5
O/U: 37
This game has been bothering me all week. My gut says Broncos, and I don't want to pick against my gut this week, because Washington is really bad. In fact, I'm not sure they'll score. So I'm going against my strategy and with my gut.
My Pick: Broncos -3.5. Denver has to win, right? 23-0.

Buffalo Bills @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -6.5
O/U: 41
The music city miracle revisited. Tennessee has lost their last 5 ATS at home to AFC East teams, but this one seems a bit different. Buffalo has had trouble stopping the run, and Tennessee has one of the best running games around. Buffalo's offense has also been iffy, and Trent Edwards is bound to have a little trouble adjusting to being back under center after about a month on the sidelines. But after beating Carolina and the Jets, I have no idea what to expect from the Bills. They could come out and win this one. But I doubt it.
My Pick: Titans -6.5. Tennessee keeps winning 23-10.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Raiders -2
O/U: 36.5
Nobody wants to watch this game, so I'll keep it short. The Chiefs are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 trips to Oakland, and are looking for revenge after the Raiders beat them earlier in the year. But without Larry Johnson, will KC have any shot? I say no. Oakland has to have some talent, as they did beat Philly earlier in the year.
My Pick: Raiders -2. Oakland wins 23-19.

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cardinals -8.5
O/U: 47
This season has been a weird one for Arizona. You know they have the talent to win big games, but they only seem to be winning on the road. And one of those home losses was to Carolina. I think they'll win this one, though, as they need to assert their dominance in the division. But can they win by 9? Seattle has been pretty bad, and if it becomes a shootout, I like the Cards' chances.
My Pick: Cards -8.5. Arizona shows off in a big way 41-13.

Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Cowboys -3
O/U: 47.5
Green Bay has been very inconsistent, but this seems like one of those games that the Cowboys could lose to let the rest of the division catch up a little. There is often a letdown after a big win, and I think the Packers will have a ton to prove after a very bad loss last week. Despite Dallas' 8-2 record ATS in their last 10 against the Packers, I have to take the home underdog.
My Pick: Packers +3. Green Bay wins outright 30-24.

Philadelphia Eagles @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -1
O/U: 47
After a big loss last week, the Eagles need a win to try to keep pace in the NFC East. The Chargers, coming off a big win, may suffer a letdown. As you can tell, I'm leaning toward the Eagles. But Philly is only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against San Diego, and relies too much on big plays, which happens to be a strength of the Chargers defense (I believe they're #2 in the league with regard to big plays against). So my heart is telling me Eagles, my brain is telling me Chargers. I'm a brain type of person.
My Pick: Chargers -1. San Diego shuts down the big plays and wins 23-17.

New England Patriots @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 49.5
The Pats are 15-2-1 ATS in their last 18 trips to Indy, but the Colts are undefeated. You can't mess with perfection. Indy hasn't played that great in the past few weeks, but the way I see it, that means they are due for a big offensive day. Plus this is the type of game you look forward to, so nobody will be looking past this opponent, which may have been an issue against San Fran and Houston. In this case, I'm going to take the undefeated home team to stay that way, but I really have no strong inclination either way. In other words, bet on a different game.
My Pick: Colts -3. Indy wins 31-27.

Monday, November 16th:

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Ravens -10.5
O/U: 40
The Ravens are a much better team than their record indicates. The Browns's record of 1-7 reflects them quite accurately. Though the Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 trips to Cleveland, the circumstances surrounding this game (Ravens at .500...) suggest that the Ravens will be taking out some frustration on the lowly Browns. I doubt they have the offense to keep up or the defense to prevent the onslaught. This one will be over at halftime.
My Pick: Ravens -10.5. Baltimore rolls 33-10.

Byes: NYG, HOU