NFL Week Eleven Recap

Overall SU: 105-55 (11-5 wk 11)
Week 11 ATS: 11-5
Overall ATS: 77-82-1

Can't Stop Ricky, Eh?
Miami Dolphins @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Carolina -3
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Panthers -3. Carolina wins at home 24-13.
Result: Dolphins 24-17
All Carolina had to do was stop Ricky. They failed. The Panthers are awfully inconsistent, making them a tough team to pick. From now on, I will only consider them a potential victor if their opponent is a passing team, as their pass D is stellar. And apparently their run D is useless.

Still Unbeaten
Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Colts -1
O/U: 44
My Pick: Colts -1. Indy wins 24-20.
Result: Colts 17-15
It wasn't pretty, but the Colts once again showed that they simply know how to win. It's no surprise when they win shootouts, but if they're winning defensive games, the Colts are very, very dangerous.

Back on Track
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Saints -11
O/U: 51
My Pick: Saints -11. New Orleans gets back into the 40's...42-17.
Result: Saints 38-7
It may not have started out spectacular, but the Saints turned things around and got the blowout. Now we'll see what they're truly made of, as the Pats venture into the Bayou for a Monday night showdown.

Just what I expected...but not without Turner!
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -6.5
O/U: 46
My Pick: Falcons +6.5. New York still wins 21-17.
Result: Giants 34-31 (ot)
I expected it to be close, but not without Michael Turner. Credit Ryan for getting the Falcons all the way out of a 14 point hole before finally succumbing to the Giants in OT. Atlanta may end up being the best team left out of the playoffs, but I wouldn't count them out just yet. 9-7 isn't a stretch, but 10-6 will be tough. If they can get to the 10-win mark, they may sneak in.

More rest for Brett
Seattle Seahawks @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -10.5
O/U: 46
My Pick: Vikings -10.5. Minny wins 31-13.
Result: Vikings 35-9
It's no surprise that the Vikes got another home blowout, but it is a bit shockingly lucky that they have now been able to rest Brett Favre a little bit in consecutive games. That little bit of reprieve could be huge, especially on Brett's aged body, when the playoffs come around. A rested Favre makes the Vikings a different team. Everyone expected him to get hurt or tire out by the playoffs, but if he is healthy and rested, the Vikings are a MAJOR contender.

Ouch
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Steelers -10
O/U: 40
My Pick: Steelers -10. Pittsburgh rolls 33-10.
Result: Chiefs 27-24 (ot)
The Steelers' offense is having problems, and without Polamalu, the defense is a totally different animal. Letting teams back into games is not a problem the Steelers used to have. All of a sudden they can't hold a 10 point lead against a crappy team. Pittsburgh isn't just in danger of not repeating as champs; they could miss the postseason entirely if they don't get healthy and start playing better soon.

TO Did Something!
Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jaguars -9
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Bills +9. Buffalo wins outright 17-16.
Result: Jaguars 18-15
I was right in the ballpark on final score...I just picked the wrong team! Jacksonville may be the worst 6-4 football team I have ever seen, and their inclusion in the postseason would be insane. They'll start losing soon, and everyone will forget that they were over .500 through 11 games (after next week...).

Comeback Kids!
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -6.5
O/U: 42
My Pick: 49ers +6.5. Green Bay still wins 16-13.
Result: Packers 30-24
This is now the second time San Fran has come out of the gates slowly but come back late to beat the spread (@HOU). Nice of them to help me out. It is, however, disappointing for them to be 4-7 after the way they looked the first few weeks of the season. Both San Fran and the Jets were big surprises early, and now both are right back where everyone expected them to be. Green Bay is suddenly in the playoff hunt, and could get in if they keep beating the teams they're supposed to beat. It would be fitting if they missed out by one game, though. (In other words, the loss at Tampa keeps them out...)

Best Game of the Week!
Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions
Line: Lions -3.5
O/U: 38.5
My Pick: Browns +3.5. Detroit wins 13-10.
Result: Lions 38-37
No one expected this game to be interesting in any way, but after the Browns got out to a 21 point lead just to see the Lions come back, things got quite interesting. And then the game ended, quite fittingly in my opinion, with a pass interference call deciding the outcome. You know, just to remind us that we were, in fact, watching the Lions play the Browns.

2 Almost shutouts in a row!
Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -11
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Redskins +11. Dallas wins 23-13.
Result: Cowboys 7-6
It was unbelievable that the Dallas offense came out of the gates that unprepared after scoring only 7 points last week, also late in the game, against Green Bay. I wanted to see them get shut out, but I guess a 1-point win over a crappy team at home fits in well with the Dallas season thus far. I can't wait to see how they blow their division lead!

Injuries Kill Spread Picks
Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Cardinals -9
O/U: 46.5
My Pick: Cardinals -9. Arizona rolls 38-17.
Result: Cardinals 21-13
You can't predict injuries. If Warner stayed in, the Cards would have scored at least once more, and would have beaten the spread. Oh well.

Stupid Strategy
San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos
Line: N/A
O/U: N/A
My Pick: Broncos win 31-24.
Result: Chargers 32-3
I'm not even going to look up the spread. It's obvious that the Chargers beat whatever it turned out to be. After the previous week, I had to go back to my opposite-picking strategy with Denver. After this week, I may have to rethink things.

Oh Come On...
Cincinnati Bengals @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Bengals -9.5
O/U: 36
My Pick: Bengals -9.5. Cincy wins 28-6.
Result: Raiders 20-17
Cincy should be ashamed. And I'm sure they are. For some reason, they can beat really good teams, yet have trouble with lesser ones. Their losses are to Denver, Houston, and Oakland. I'll bet none of them make the playoffs (HOU has best chance of the 3...).

What happens when you run into Angry Pats?
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -10.5
O/U: 45
My Pick: Pats -10.5. New England crushes the Jets 38-14.
Result: Patriots 31-14
The Pats were mad that Belichick was put through the wringer for his 4th and 2 call last week against the Colts. They were also pissed that the Jets beat them in week 2. What does that add up to for New York? A whoopin. And that's what happened. It got a little closer than I expected after a 24-0 start, but the Pats did just enough to keep it a blowout. If they get past the Saints, New England won't lose again in the regular season. And if they face the Colts in the playoffs, I have a feeling there will be some animosity involved. It'll be a great game if it happens.

Vick wins another Dog Fight
Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears
Line: Eagles -3
O/U: 45
My Pick: Eagles -3. Philly wins 24-17.
Result: Eagles 24-20
Ok, fine, Vick didn't "win" the game, but he was involved, so I took the liberty of using the eye-catching title. This game was a good old-fashioned dog fight, and it was a shame someone had to lose. In the end, it was the team that couldn't find the endzone and had to settle for 4 field goals that lost, and rightfully so. I love the use of Vick in 3rd and 1 situations, and I hope Andy Reid will continue to do it, as it immediately makes the Eagles one of the better short yardage teams in the league simply by opening up a plethora of options on those plays. I should also note that DeSean Jackson's 48-yard touchdown catch was his shortest of the year. Of SEVEN. Wow.

Can They Get To Ten?
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -4.5
O/U: 48
My Pick: Titans +4.5. Tennessee wins outright 24-20.
Result: Titans 20-17
Tennessee looks like a completely different team. And Houston is no slouch. Their inability to score in the last two minutes of the game is troubling, but if the defense plays solid and the offense continues to hold onto the ball, they should finish 9-7 or better and possibly sneak into the postseason. When betting Tennessee from now on, you must consider them as they were last season. This team has found its way and will give every opponent trouble unless Vince Young has a bad game (which is always possible). He looked awfully good on Monday Night, though.