NFL Week Eight Preview

Sunday, November 1st:

Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -3
O/U: 41.5
The Ravens are a very good 3-3 football team, and coming off their bye week should be prepared for anything the Broncos can throw at them. Another loss may put them out of the hunt for the AFC North, and they know it. The Ravens are 6-1 ATS following their last 7 byes, and Denver is only 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against Baltimore. Everything points toward a Ravens win, so I'll continue picking against my gut and take the Broncos.
My Pick: Broncos +3. Baltimore wins anyway 17-16.

Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -9-5
O/U: 46
Dallas stepped up big last week, but does that mean they'll blow out Seattle? Seattle is only 2-6 ATS in their last 8 against Dallas, but the telling trend is that they're 1-9 ATS their past 10 games after a bye. So for whatever reason the extra week off doesn't help the Seahawks. For that reason, I'll take the points, but am still concerned that it could be a closer game than 10.
My pick: Cowboys -9.5. Dallas wins 31-21.

St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions
Line: N/A
O/U: N/A
No line means that I'll assume the line is "pickem", and if a spread comes out before the game is played, I will apply that line to my final score prediction to determine whether or not I was right. The Lions are 6-3 ATS their last 9 against the Rams, and Detroit's one win in the last 2 years was at home against a team that couldn't muster any offense. The Rams have been shut out twice. Even without Stafford I am tempted to pick the Lions, and he has practiced this week, so I think he'll play. The problem is that it is unlikely that anyone will go 0-16 again, and this the best shot the Rams will have to get a win.
My Pick: Rams win it 24-20.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -3.5
O/U: 40.5
Common sense suggests that I take the Dolphins again; the Jets couldn't stop the run the first time around, and now without Kris Jenkins in the middle, the Jets will be even worse against Ronnie and Ricky. The problem is that the Jets are pissed they lost the first time, and feel that they have something to prove. New York is at home and Rex Ryan: Defensive Genius has had plenty of time to figure out how to stop the wildcat. Prior to this season, the Fins had very little success against the Jets, beating the spread in only 3 of 20 meetings. Will they fall back into the status quo? My gut tells me that the Fins will run all over the Jets again, but my brain tells me that Rex Ryan's team will have an answer for it this time.
My Pick: Jets -3.5. New York wins 26-20.

San Francisco 49ers @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -12.5
O/U: 44
Despite San Fran's poor showing in their last 2 games, I still consider them to be an above-average team despite having a below-average quarterback. Meaning that 12.5 is a LOT of points to give to their opponent, no matter how good they are. San Fran went down 21 last week and still managed a push against a 3 point spread when it was all said and done. They are well-coached, tough, and are the one team in the NFL that will never give up. For that reason, I think they'll keep it a little closer than 13. Plus the Colts are only 6-14 ATS in their last 20 against the NFC West.
My Pick: 49ers +12.5. Too many points. Indy wins 28-17.

Cleveland Browns @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -13
O/U: 40
Are they nuts? After the way the Bears have played the last two weeks, 13 is way too big of a spread, even against the Browns. I think the Urlacher injury is finally catching up to that defense, and the offense just isn't good enough to score a ton of points. I expect the Bears to avenge their recent woes by beating the Browns, but not in a blowout. Plus the Browns have somehow covered 5 straight November road games.
My Pick: Browns +13. Chicago wins 21-10.

Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Texans -3.5
O/U: 41.5
The Bills have had some success as of late, but I prefer to call it luck. At 3-4, they're not out of the running yet, and may be feeling confident. The Texans are legitimately solid, though, and I don't see how they'd lose this game. Even with the Bills' pass defense among the best in the league, I don't think they have the speed to keep up with Houston. Until Trent gets back, I'm going against the Bills every week. Why? Because Harvard Sucks.
My Pick: Texans -3.5. Houston picks up the road win 27-13.

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: 0
O/U: 44
The Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 trips to Philly and are looking for redemption after losing in consecutive weeks. Philly looked OK against the Skins, but I'm not sure if they're still the team that lost to the Raiders or if they've gotten over that sloppiness. And I'm sure New York is still pissed about Philly knocking them out of last year's postseason. Revenge is a dish best served cold...and it should be quite cold in Philly on Sunday! Fox will have this game at 1 and the World Series game, also from Philly, at 8. Throw Brett's return to Green Bay in between, and you've got one hell of a sports day.
My Pick: Giants +0. New York wins, but it's never easy in Philly. 23-21.

Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -16.5
O/U: 41.5
Another crazy line as Vegas over-reacts to last week's blowouts. This time, however, I think they'll be ok. Oakland is awful, and has been even worse on the road. Last week the Chargers made a statement by blowing out the Chiefs. I don't think they've fully gotten their point across yet...better blow out the Raiders, too. Oakland is only 2-11 ATS in their last 13 against San Diego, although one of the ATS wins was this year.
My Pick: Chargers -16.5. San Diego rolls again 33-10.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 45
This is almost the same Titans team that won 13 games last year, but they can't seem to pull themselves off the mat. Fisher's appearance in a Manning jersey could spark the team, or it could create dirision and cause them to become even worse. I think it'll be a spark, though I don't necessarily agree with the gesture. Tennessee has lost every game they've played, but I'll bet none hurts worse than losing badly to the Jags. Jacksonville is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 trips to Tennessee. This has to be a pride game, and if they play with intensity, I don't see any reason why the Titans won't get their first win.
My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee gets off the shnide with a 23-17 win.

Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cards -10
O/U: 41
While struggling on the east coast all of last year, the closest the Cards came to a win in the regular season was @Carolina. Then they went to Carolina again in the playoffs and finished the job. And that was when Carolina was good! Now the struggling Panthers come into the desert again a hot, confident Arizona team that has finally seen its defense step it up like I expected them to before the season began. Carolina has never lost in Arizona (3-0), but there's a first time for everything.
My Pick: Cards -10. Arizona continues to click on all cylinders, winning 34-17.

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -3
O/U: 47.5
The Vikings have lost to the spread in their last 2 visits to Green Bay, but were 7-0 ATS their previous 7 trips. Plus their "new" quarterback knows how to play at Lambeau, and has already won there once or twice in his career. Green Bay will play hard, knowing that they have to upstage Brett in his return, but he has been dynamite this season, and I don't expect the friendly confines of Lambeau to trip him up. Green Bay has been solid lately, but they haven't played a decent team since their trip to Minneapolis. Brett was brought in to win a super bowl, but his secondary objective was to win @ Green Bay...He will.
My Pick: Vikings +3. Minny wins 30-23.

Monday, November 2nd:

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -10
O/U: 54
I don't see how the Falcons can keep up with the Saints in the Metrodome. They've blown out everyone that's visited this season. Reggie's comments about going undefeated were premature, but I don't think anyone really pays attention to him, so it likely won't have any effect. The Saints are only 5-15 ATS at home against the Falcons since 1990 and Mike Smith still hasn't lost consecutive games as Falcons coach, but I just don't see how the Falcons' 26th-ranked pass defense can hold the Saints under 40.
My Pick: Saints -10. I want it to be a good game, but the Saints are too good. They win going away, 42-27.