NFL Week Seven Recap

Overall SU: 67-36 (8-5 wk 7)
Week 7 ATS: 5-7-1
Overall ATS: 47-55-1

Week 7: The week of the blowout! The only teams to pull upsets were the Bills and Cards; every other favorite won.

Where did the 49ers go?
San Francisco 49ers @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -3
O/U: 44
My Pick: 49ers +3. San Fran wins big 27-17.
Result: Texans 24-21
The 49ers were stellar until 2 weeks ago, losing only on a last-second Favre pass in Minnesota. Now they rebound from a blowout home loss to Atlanta with a loss in Houston? Their defense has to be better than that, and was early in the year. Now I'm not sure what to make of a team that was on track to win its division just a few weeks ago. Houston has gotten better as the season has progressed, but is still a middle-of-the-road team.

Struck Down
San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Chargers -5
O/U: 44
My Pick: Chargers -5. San Diego wins 30-13.
Result: Chargers 37-7
San Diego needed this rout to prove that they aren't going away in the AFC West. If the Broncos stumble, they'll be right on their heels, ready to claim the division title.

Anything less would have been embarassing
Green Bay Packers @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Packers -7
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Packers -7. Green Bay 30-21.
Result: Packers 31-3
Heading into their biggest game of the year (round 2 vs. Min), the Packers defense held true again, and Rodgers did everything he needed to, leading the team to another blowout. It won't be that easy next week...

When will they lose? Not soon... Not soon.
Indianapolis Colts @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Colts -13
O/U: 45
My Pick: Colts -13. Indianapolis in a blowout 38-10.
Result: Colts 42-6
Peyton is on top of his game, and Indy looks poised to remain unbeaten longer than any other team in the league, unless the Saints magical run can continue. The way the Colts and Saints have played thus far, I'm not sure who will beat them. But somebody almost always does, so I wouldn't expect either to remain unbeaten into the playoffs.

London Falling
New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Patriots -14.5
O/U: 45
My Pick: Patriots -14.5. New England comes back with a 40-20 win.
Result: Patriots 35-7
Nice of the Pats not to run up the score this week! The Bucs are awful, and I don't foresee their first victory. With Josh Johnson at QB and a defense that continues to let up big plays, they could be the new Lions.

Damn Defense
Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -5
O/U: 45
My Pick: Vikings +5. Steelers still win 23-21.
Result: Steelers 27-17
I was correct in assuming that this would be a close, hotly contested game. But the damn Steelers defense decided to get 2 huge returns in the 4th to beat the spread. Imagine watching the game...Vikings, down 3, driving late...I was sure they'd beat the spread. A field goal and the Steelers would drive down, kick it, and win by 3. A touchdown and there was no way for me to lose. Then "that" happened. But Harvin's kick return made it all better, and after the Vikings O got the ball back, I was in business again. Same thought process. Same problem. Analysts always talk about how winning 2 of the 3 phases of the game will earn a team a victory. The Vikings offense was clearly better than Pittsburgh's. They seemed to move the ball almost at will. Minny's special teams were better, thanks in part to Harvin's big return. The Steelers only won the defensive side of the ball, and only due to their big plays. Unfortunate, but it happens. I hope this game will be played again in early February.

NOW they win...How bad is Carolina?
Buffalo Bills @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -7
O/U: 36.5
My Pick: Panthers -7. Carolina wins 23-10.
Result: Bills 20-9
Buffalo still has no offense, but when the defense can score more than it allows, that doesn't matter. Carolina is atrocious, and has beaten the spread only once all year...against Tampa. Like the Titans, I'm not yet sure what to make of a team that was good last year and returns almost all of their talent. You know they could win any game at any time if they put it together, yet they've been bad thus far, so you almost want to write them off.

How was this a blowout?
New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Jets -6
O/U: 34.5
My Pick: Raiders +6. New York escapes with a 13-10 win.
Result: Jets 38-0
I understand the Zero. The Jets D is good. But how did Sanchez put up 38 against a team that played ok last week and got a win against Philly? Weird.

Where did this come from?
Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys -4
O/U: 47.5
My Pick: Falcons +4. Atlanta wins outright 24-20.
Result: Cowboys 37-21
The Falcons are headed right back to where people expected them to be pre-season. Despite some impressive wins, they've now got 2 losses and are all but a shoe-in for a third next week when they visit New Orleans, home of the 45-point offense. At 4-3, they'll be a very solid middle of the road team, but will need to step it up in the hope of earning a wild card, as it doesn't look like anyone will overtake the Saints. Dallas is a middle of the road team with above average talent. They can beat good teams, but have also struggled against bad ones. It's all on Romo; When he shows, they have a shot in most games.

Holy Comeback
New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Saints -6.5
O/U: 47
My Pick: Saints -6.5. New Orleans wins 38-27.
Result: Saints 46-34
When the "24-3 Dolphins" score flashed across the screen, I chalked this up as a certain loss. Miami's D was holding Brees down, and the Saints couldn't stop the Miami wildcat...just what I had feared when I picked the game. Apparently I forgot that Brees only needs one half to put up 40+ points. Wow. I went into the NFL stats page to see which teams have the best pass defenses in the league...would you believe that the Saints have already beaten them all? The Jets and Bills are recurring names on the list, both in the top 5 in completion percentage allowed, even after aplying Brees and the Saints. The Giants, Panthers, and Colts are also up there in pass yds allowed per game. The Saints beat the Giants pretty badly, but apprently didn't hurt their stats much. They must have been THAT good in every other game, because it seemed to me as though they were shredded by Brees. New Orleans will see Carolina twice before the season ends, but despite the league's best (on paper...) pass defense, they can't do much else, and I would be absolutely shocked if they beat the Saints. New Orleans won't see Indy unless they meet in the Super Bowl.

Aren't the Bears a defensive team?
Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -1
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Bears +1. Chicago wins 21-20.
Result: Bengals 45-10
I've got nothin. No idea what the hell happened to the Bears' D. I'm sure it will be remedied, but I don't know when. For now, I must assume that the Bears are an average team, and that the Bengals are quite good. They have to go 7-2 the rest of the way to hit Ochocinco's prediction, though. I don't think so, Cincy.

Whoa...
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -7
O/U: 46
My Pick: Giants -7. New York crushes the Cards 34-14.
Result: Cards 24-17
Before the season, I thought the Cardinals defense would be confident, quick, and able to beat the best teams in the league. They proved me wrong 2 of the season's first 3 weeks, so I gave up on them. Now they seem to have found their stride, as long as Rodgers-Cromartie isn't hurt too bad. A win @New York is huge, and Arizona, with San Fran struggling, is my new (and preseason...) favorite in the West. New York gets into some tough division play now, and I expect them to be back on top of thier game. The past two weeks was a bump in the road. They're not dead yet.

Stupid Redskins...God they suck
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins
Line: Eagles -7
O/U: 37.5
My Pick: Skins +7. Philadelphia still wins 16-10.
Result: Eagles 27-17
Washington's offense is pathetic. Philly played a good first half and a pretty bad second half, yet still won by 10. Yes, they blitz a lot. But a professional offense would figure out how to deal with that.