NFL Week Five Preview

Sunday, October 11th:

Minnesota Vikings @ St. Louis Rams
Line: Vikings -10
O/U: 41
Linebuster!
Though the Vikings are only 2-7 ATS in their last 9 against St. Louis, the Rams have already been shut out twice, and I can only imagine that Jared Allen and the Vikings defense are licking their chops.
My Pick: Vikings -10. Minnesota cruises 27-6.

Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Cowboys -8
O/U: 42.5
Linebuster!
Kansas City is the only team in the NFL that has played 4 games and not yet beaten the spread (Carolina had a bye in week 3). Dallas can't be thrilled with its performance in the last 3 games and really needs to put something together. Though the home team has won the last 6 meetings in this series, I don't expect the Chiefs' home field advantage to mean much after a 3-5 year ATS at home last season. And KC isn't far from Dallas, so you have to figure there will be a few Cowboys fans in town for the game. Dallas has played 6 straight October road Overs, and if there are a lot of points on the board Dallas should win by plenty.
My Pick: Cowboys -8. Dallas wins 34-20.

Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers
Line: Panthers -3.5
O/U: 37.5
The Redskins are 7-1 SU against the Panthers all-time, but can you trust the Redskins' offense to score enough points to win in Carolina? This is only Carolina's second home contest of the year, and last season they were 5-1-2 ATS at home. Washington, on the other hand, has only beaten the spread once this year, but it was in their only other game as an underdog. These two teams are 3-0-1 Under the last four times they've played and Carolina has hit the under 5 of the last 6 times they have come out of the bye week. A low scoring game favors the Skins.
My Pick: Redskins +3.5. Carolina wins 13-12.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Line: Eagles -14.5
O/U: 43
The biggest spread of the season to this point! The Under is 7-3 the last 10 times these teams have met, Philly has hit the Under 9 straight times after a bye, and the Under is 11-2-1 the last 14 times Philly has been a favorite of more than 8. So can Philly hit the under and still cover 14.5 points? Also keep in mind that the Bucs are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last 3 against the Iggles. They shouldn't win, and it probably shouldn't be close, but I can't give anybody that many points.
My Pick: Buccaneers +14.5. Eagles still win big 27-13.

Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills
Line: Bills -6
O/U: 40.5
The Browns are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against the AFC East and seem to have gotten a little better with Anderson at the helm. These teams played on Monday Night last year in a game won by Cleveland and I don't see it going much differently this year.
My Pick: Browns +6. Cleveland notches win #1 20-16.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
Line: Ravens -8.5
O/U: 42
Linebuster!
This should be an easy choice, but I am still unsure what to make of the Bengals. Baltimore was 6-1-1 ATS at home last year, and coming off of a loss I doubt they'll leave anything to chance. The Benglas are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 @BAL and the Ravens are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite. Cincy also historically struggles ATS in October (3-15-2 last 20) and is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 division games.
My Pick: Ravens -8.5. Baltimore gets back on track, 30-17.

Oakland Raiders @ New York Giants
Line: Giants -15.5
O/U: 38
What is going on with huge spreads this week? It is possible that this spread could be covered, but in a league with such parity I can't bring myself to take this big of a favorite. Oakland is a mess, and without McFadden will struggle, but they're 3-1 @ the Giants since 1980, and you never know what can happen in this league. I would bet on the Raiders being fired up about being such a huge underdog, and they should come out and play a bit better. Keep in mind that the Bengals took the Giants to overtime at home last season despite being huge dogs. I'm hoping that happens again. The questionable health of Eli doesn't hurt my confidence in making this pick, either.
My Pick: Raiders +15.5. Giants win 24-13.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions
Line: Steelers -10.5
O/U: 44
Linebuster!
If the Lions can let the Bears score 48, the Steelers should put up 60. After their performance last week against the Chargers I expect the Steelers' offense to be clicking, and Detroit won't be able to stop them. Detroit has beaten the spread 4 of the past 5 times they've played the Steelers despite losing 4 of those 5 games, but Pittsburgh is 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 October road games. Detroit used to be a team that beat the big spreads (11-2 ATS last 13 games prior to this season as a dog of 8+), but is 0-3 against the big spreads this year.
My Pick: Steelers -10.5. Pittsburgh wins 31-20.

Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -2.5
O/U: 41
It is remarkable to think that the 49ers are favored without Frank Gore against a team that has proven itself to be quite good. Interestingly enough, the Falcons are historically good on the road in October (13-6 ATS last 19), yet have dropped 8 of their last 9 SU and ATS @ San Fran. As a small fave, San Fran generally ends up over (8-2 Over last 10 as fave of 4 or less), yet these two teams have been Under the last 4 meetings they've had in the Bay Area. So all that means is that the trends may as well be thrown out the window, as they're pointing all over the place. After the way San Fran played @MIN, I will give them the benefit of the doubt. I have no idea where their offense is coming from, but as long as it shows up on the scoreboard I don't really care.
My Pick: 49ers -2.5. San Francisco wins a good game at home 23-17.

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos
Line: Patriots -3.5
O/U: 41
I am very confident that the Pats, as they continue to get better, will crush the Broncos, as they begin to show that they're not really that good. It pains me that they're 4-0. The Pats are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 trips to Denver, and Denver hasn't lost against the spread yet this season. Every bone in my body says that the Pats will kill Denver, that Denver is due for a spread loss, and that New England just keeps getting better. Yet I have to stick with my strategy.
My Pick: Broncos +3.5. Pats win 20-17.

Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals
Line: Cardinals -5.5
O/U: 50
Both teams are better on the road thus far, yet Arizona was such a good home team last season that I have a hard time counting them out. Houston is 7-1 their last 8 games as an underdog and has played every game in its history against the NFC West Over. A high-scoring game favors the Cards, but likely not by too many points. For some reason, though, I am having a hard time jumping off the Cardinals bandwagon that swept me up last year.
My Pick: Cardinals -5.5. Arizona wins 34-27.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: None
O/U: None
When there is no line, I just pick the game straight up. If an official line comes out later, it is judged against the score I have chosen for the game. My guess is that Vegas is hesitant to call this prior to receiving official word on Hasslebeck. He practiced this week, and I expect he'll play. Even if he doesn't, I expect the Seahawks to win. The Jags have won their last 4 October road games SU and ATS, but after somehow knocking off Houtson and Tennessee, their luck has to run out. Seattle was supposed to be good, and is now struggling. San Fran and Arizona are solid teams, and if Seattle hopes to keep their fans happy with a playoff berth, they have to start winning right now.
My Pick: Seahawks Pk. Seattle wins 23-13.

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
Line: Colts -3.5
O/U: 45.5
The Colts are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against TEN, but with the oddsmakers being careful and only giving 3.5 points, I think Indy should be just fine. Tennessee needs a win, but Indy is playing excellent football right now. The Titans are a mess. The Under is 7-1 the last 8 meetings.
My Pick: Colts -3.5. Tennessee will win eventually, but it won't be this week. Colts win 24-20.

Monday, October 12th:

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Jets -1.5
O/U: 36
Linebuster!
So now it's time for the real test. Can the Jets rebound from their first loss and re-assert their division dominance. The Fins don't have much going for them offensively, yet still put up 38 on the Bills. The Jets, however, are not the Bills. Rex Ryan: Defensive Genius will have his team ready for the run, and they can leave Revis on an island against Ginn, effectively shutting down the passing game. The Jets may not score much, but they shouldn't have to. New York is 14-3-3 ATS in their last 20 against the Fins. Yikes.
My Pick: Jets -1.5. New York marches on with a 23-9 win.

Byes: Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Diego