NFL Week Six Preview

Sunday, October 18th:

Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals
Line: Bengals -4.5
O/U: 45
Cincy is one of the biggest surprises in the league, and would hate to falter at home against the Texans after beating the likes of PIT, GB, and BAL. Neither of these teams is historically good ATS in October, but Houston is 7-2 the last 9 games they've played as an underdog and has been up and down all season. After being down last week, look for them to be up.
My Pick: Texans +4.5. Cincy wins 27-24.

New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -3
O/U: 47.5
You would think that with New Orleans coming off a bye this one's a no-brainer. The Saints are widely regarded as one of the 3 best teams in football, they've had a whole extra week to prepare, and they're playing at home. Oddly enough, New Orleans is historically bad after the bye (just 2-6 the last 8, 0 for their last 3 at home). Not to mention that the Giants are also among the league's top 3 teams, and Eli Manning has only lost once in a dome in 7 career games. 8 of the last 10 NYG games against the NFC South have been played Under, and if the Giants defense can contain Brees, this one will be, too. New Orleans is one of only 2 teams (DEN) that hasn't lost to the spread yet this season. Look for that streak to end.
My Pick: Giants +3. New York wins outright 24-23.

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
Line: Packers -13
O/U: 48
The Lions have lost 18 straight @ Green Bay, but the question isn't who will win. Can the Lions put up enough of a fight to cover? Even with Stafford back and Green Bay's pass defense playing some questionable football, the Packers have had an extra week to prepare for a team that has won only one game in the last two years.
My Pick: Packers -13. Green Bay Rolls 33-17.

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -14
O/U: 38
None of the trends really apply to this game. All they say is that Pittsburgh will win. That part is pretty obvious. Despite Pittsburgh's abysmal 1-4 ATS record this season, they should win by a ton. The offense has been solid, and if Cleveland can only manage 2 field goals and 2 completions against Buffalo, they'll get nothin' against the Steeler D. These teams have played 5 of their last 7 games @ Pitt Over, but if Pittsburgh gets hit by the forecasted rain/snow mix, they may not score enough points to beat this spread. If the weather's clear, they'll win by 20. 30% chance of rain/snow means 30% chance of the Browns beating the spread.
My Pick: Steelers -14. Pittsbugh wins 27-6.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Redskins
Line: Redskins -6.5
O/U: 37.5
This one's a no-brainer. The Skins have played every game close this season and the Chiefs just nearly beat a much better NFC East foe, the Dallas Cowboys. Plus KC is 4-0 their last 4 SU and ATS against the Skins. Washington is 0-3 ATS as a favorite, 2-0 ATS as a dog. That should continue.
My Pick: Chiefs +6.5. Washington remains unbeaten at home, 13-10.

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: Panthers -3
O/U: 40
The Panthers are 5-1 SU @ Tampa in their last 6 tries, and to win so consistently on another team's field is rare. Not to mention that the Panthers should be better than the Bucs.
My Pick: Panthers -3. Carolina beats the spread for the first time with a 28-20 victory.

St. Louis Rams @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Jaguars -9.5
O/U: 42.5
Had the Jags not been embarassed last weekend, this could have been St. Louis' first (and maybe only...) win of the season. But now the Jags are pissed. Despite winning and covering the previous two meetings, I'm not sure the Rams can pull this one off against a very frustrated Jacksonville team, which as of a week ago, thought it might be headed in the right direction. The Jags are 4-0 ATS their last 4 games before a bye, and that streak shall continue.
My Pick: Jaguars -9.5. The Jags take out their frustration on the lowly Rams 30-10.

Baltimore Ravens @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -2.5
O/U: 43.5
The Ravens, one of the best teams in the league, have lost 2 in a row. The Vikings have to lose sometime, and may as well do it against one of the league's premiere defenses. The Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on turf, and after an NFL-Best 3 overall ATS losses all of last year, they've dropped 2 in a row. Minnesota is 1-5-1 ATS their last 7 against Baltimore. As the Under is 6-1 the last 7 pre-bye Baltimore games, I expect a defensive battle.
My Pick: Ravens +2.5. Baltimore wins outright 20-16.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Oakland Raiders
Line: Eagles -14
O/U: 40.5
Despite a 2-5 ATS mark in their last 7 games against the Raiders, Philly is the type of team that generally blows out lesser opponents, and I'd expect no less this week in Oakland. The Jamarcus Russell thing is a mess, and Oakland is in shambles right now. Donovan will light them up.
My Pick: Eagles -14. Philly embarasses the Raiders 37-10.

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
Line: Seahawks -3
O/U: 47
Seattle is 2-0 ATS as a favorite, 0-3 ATS as a dog, meaning they generally do what they're supposed to. Despite a possible letdown from last week's blowout, I think the Seahawks have the right mindset: they're out to prove they can win the West. Arizona is 1-5 SU in their last 6 trips to Seattle, and despite a stellar 6-0 ATS record against the NFC West last season, they've lost their only division game thus far in '09.
My Pick: Seahawks -3. Seattle proves they're better than we think with a 31-24 win.

Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -9.5
O/U: 43
The Titans are having an awful year. Hopefully they can regroup a bit during the bye and win some games thereafter, because a road trip to New England likely means an 0-6 start. Tennessee is historically good before the bye week (6-1 ATS last 7), but they haven't struggled in the past like they're struggling this year. New England, coming off a tough loss in Denver, will be ready to play. They've been solid at home so far this season (3-0, 2-1 ATS), and ought to stay that way. As long as the Pats' D doesn't get run over by Chris Johnson and LenDale White, they'll cover easily.
My Pick: Pats -9.5. New England wins 31-13.

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
Line: Jets -9.5
O/U: 38
Despite a loss to Miami and the problem of suddenly looking "human" defensively, I think the Jets have more than enough talent to hold down a Bills team that is struggling mightily. With linebackers Mitchell and Buggs now done for the year, Buffalo is going to have trouble defensively. And when your offense can't score, that's a big problem. The Bills are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 against the Jets, and New York has covered only one of their last 5 meetings with the Bills at Giants Stadium. Since the Jets have looked a bit questionable, I'll give my Bills the benefit of the doubt on a huge spread.
My Pick: Bills +9.5. Jets still win 24-17.

Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons -3
O/U: 45.5
Although the Bears are 3-1 in their last 4 trips to Atlanta, the Falcons made a huge statement last week in San Fran. Home field advantage will be big, and I'm not sure that the Bears can do much against Atlanta, even with an extra week to prepare.
My Pick: Falcons -3. Atlanta continues to impress with a 31-21 win.

Monday, October 19th:

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers
Line: Chargers -3.5
O/U: 44
The Broncos look quite good, but are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last 3 trips to San Diego. Plus San Diego is 6-3 ATS in their last 9 post-bye games and is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 within the division. Denver has to lose sometime, and I would expect it to be this week, as San Diego is out to prove that they are the team to beat in the AFC West. So naturally I must go completely against my gut and pick the Broncos.
My Pick: Broncos +3.5. Denver Wins outright 21-20.