NFL Week Four Recap

Overall SU: 42-20 (10-4 wk 4)
Week 4 ATS: 4-10
Overall ATS: 26-36
Week 4 Linebusters: 1-4 (7-13 overall)

So much for picking against the spread. The NFL is simply ridiculous... The Broncos are for real (maybe)... Jacksonville crushes Tennessee... The Bills don't show up at all... The Bears score 48 points... What the hell is going on?

Al Davis Should be Ashamed...
Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans
Line: Texans -9
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Raiders +9. Too many points. Texans win 27-20.
Result: Texans 29-6
Houston wasn't winning games at home and hasn't been playing defense anywhere. I know Oakland is bad, but didn't really think they were quite that bad. I hate big spreads.

The Entire State of Tennessee Should be Ashamed...
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 41.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee finally wins one. 23-13.
Result: Jaguars 37-17
The Jaguars winning this game would have been embarassing for the Titans. The Jaguars blowing out the Titans should bring about a whole new level of disgust. Now the problem (for me...) is that Tennessee has all the pieces to win games against good teams, so it will be very hard to predict when they will actually pull it together. I'll have a tough time figuring them out the rest of the year.

I Should Have Known Better
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -2
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Ravens +2. Baltimore wins 20-17.
Result: Pats 27-21
I knew the Ravens had to lose at some point, and @NE is as good a time as any. The Pats are still a good team, and I need to be careful not to underestimate them as they will keep getting better as the season moves forward, especially if they add Junior Seau to a defense that is playing pretty well right now anyway.

So it WAS Brady Quinn...
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
Line: Bengals -5.5
O/U: 38
My Pick: Bengals -5.5. Can't believe I'm doing this. Cincy 21-13.
Result: Bengals 23-20 (ot)
That was a much better performance by the Browns offense. I'm just curious when we'll find out how good the Bengals really are. Their loss is to a mediocre team and they nearly lost to the Browns, yet their other two wins are against pretty solid teams (GB, PIT).

Still Rollin
New York Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Giants -8.5
O/U: 42.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Giants -8.5. New York Rolls 27-10.
Result: Giants 27-16
The Giants' average margin of victory is 11, though the two conference games they've played have been squeakers. The Chiefs are bad. It'll be interesting to see if they decide to beat the spread at all this season...

Football Games are 60 Minutes Long, Detroit.
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears -10
O/U: 39
My Pick: Lions +10. Too many points. Bears win 20-13.
Result: Bears 48-24
After being tied at halftime, I think the Lions just forgot to play the second half. Chicago was in the endzone seconds after the intermission, and Detroit never really mounted any sort of effort to get back in it. You know you're bad when the Bears put up 48 on you...

These Teams are Useless
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Redskins
Line: Redskins -7
O/U: 37
My Pick: Bucs +7. Skins still win 14-9.
Result: Skins 16-13
I am getting very sick of the Redskins. Their complete inability to play offense disgusts me. Then again, it could be worse. If I were a Bucs fan, for instance...they can't play O or D!

How Good Are the Colts?
Seattle Seahawks @ Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts -10.5
O/U: 44
My Pick: Indy -10.5. At home on turf Indy runs it up. 37-20.
Result: Colts 34-17
No doubt Indy was going to win this one, but is this now a team that could win the Super Bowl? They played pretty well without Freeney or Sanders, and with the rest of the AFC South looking pathetic this year, Indy may not be stopped.

Where do They Go From Here?
New York Jets @ New Orleans Saints
Line: Saints -7
O/U: 45
My Pick: Saints -7. New Orleans keeps rolling with a 31-17 win.
Result: Saints 24-10
It will be interesting to see if the Saints keep rolling and if the Jets can regain their footing. I never thought New York would win more than 6 or 7 games this year based on their personnel, yet seeing the way their coach has things running, I think they'll challenge for the division. But they could just as easily turn the other way and start losing. New Orleans looks awfully good, but we'll see what happens when they play some of the better teams in the NFC.

Disgraceful
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
Line: Bills -2
O/U: 37
Linebuster!
My Pick: Bills -2. Buffalo wins 27-16.
Result: Dolphins 38-10
If you have a good run defense and play a team with no quarterback, shouldn't you hold them under 38 points? The Bills got run over, literally and figuratively. Edwards isn't good enough to take a team to the playoffs. Even with Marshawn Lynch back they only scored 10. Just a terrbile game all around.

Housed
St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
Line: 49ers -9.5
O/U: 37
My Pick: Rams +9.5. San Fran still wins 10-6.
Result: 49ers 35-0
The Rams have now been shut out twice. Ouch. My real surprise is that San Fran scored so many points. Though some were scored by the defense, I'm still impressed that the 49ers could do so well without their star running back. If Crabtree signs they should be even better. After watching Minnesota on Monday Night, the 49ers close loss in the Metrodome speaks wonders for how good they really are, and I am now convinced that they are, at worst, a playoff team.

What is the deal here?
Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos
Line: Cowboys -3
O/U: 42.5
Linebuster!
My Pick: Cowboys -3. Dallas wins 27-22.
Result: Broncos 17-10
I should never make the Broncos game a linebuster. That's asking for problems. I knew Denver had a good secondary, but was under the impression that every other part of the team was below average. I guess they're not as bad as I thought. Orton is playing competently, Marshall had a great TD catch/run, and the defense held the Cowboys to 10 points. That said, I'm going back to picking the absolute opposite of whatever my gut tells me to pick whenever the Broncos are involved.

Back
San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers -6.5
O/U: 43
Linebuster!
My Pick: Chargers +6.5. Steelers win 21-17.
Result: Steelers 38-28
Pittsburgh was not happy with 1-2. I should have known they'd go nuts on San Diego. I just thought the Chargers would show up before the 4th quarter.

Favreulous
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
Line: Vikings -3.5
O/U: 45
My Pick: Packers +3.5. Vikings win 30-27.
Result: Vikings 30-23
I don't even care about being wrong...that was an awesome game to watch. Favre was outstanding, as was his defense. The Vikes will be around in January. Rodgers didn't quit, and really rallied the team well, but it was too little, too late. The Packers need to figure out that O-line, and they need to do it quickly.