Week Seventeen Preview

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
Line: Falcons -14.5
O/U: 41
I generally go against big spreads, but I think the Falcons will run the Panthers out of the Georgia Dome. A win means home field advantage throughout the playoffs, and Atlanta doesn't want to go into the postseason with two straight losses. Add to that Carolina's ineptitude, and you have a recipe for a blowout.
My Pick: Falcons -14.5. Atlanta rolls 34-3.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
Line: Ravens -9.5
O/U: 43
The Bengals seem to have the Ravens' number. Although Baltimore needs this win to have a shot at the division title and a first-round bye (with a PIT loss...), I just don't see it being a blowout.
My Pick: Bengals +9.5. Baltimore wins 23-20.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
Line: Steelers -5.5
O/U: 37.5
Pittsburgh is pretty darn good in big games. A win in Baltimore will give them a division title and a first-round bye. A loss, a BAL win, and a NYJ win would drop the Steelers down to a 6-seed! I expect them to beat the Browns somewhat handily.
My Pick: Steelers -5.5. Pittsburgh wins 24-10.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ DETROIT LIONS
Line: Lions -3
O/U: 42
Geez...I've gotta pick the Vikings, simply because they're underdogs in Detroit. I'm not thrilled that the quarterback is still unknown, but Favre will probably play, and it seems sacreligious for him to end his career with a loss.
My Pick: Vikings +3. Minny wins 23-13.

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Line: Chiefs -3.5
O/U: 43.5
If the Raiders win, they'll be the first team to ever SWEEP their division and still miss the playoffs. I want that to happen - it would make me laugh! Plus KC has very little to play for, and may not be "in it to win it".
My Pick: Raiders +3.5. Oakland wins 24-20.

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Line: Pats -3.5
O/U: 43
Can the Pats backups beat the Fins? Probably...but the odds are against them winning by 4 or more.
My Pick: Dolphins +3.5. New England still wins 20-17.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Line: Saints -8
O/U: 46.5
The Bucs need a win and a LOT of help to get in the playoffs. I doubt the Packers and Giants will BOTH lose, so chances are they're screwed either way. That said, they'll still be playing very hard. The Saints SHOULD be playing hard, but if I were on that team, I'd have to assume the Falcons were going to beat the Panthers to win the division and the bye. New orleans will get a virtual bye anyway, as they'll be the 5-seed in the NFC and will travel to play the winner of the NFC West in the first round, which shouldn't be much of a contest. So, in short, I'm not sure New Orleans will be 100% into this game, and could end up in a tight battle.
My Pick: Bucs +8. New Orleans wins 27-23.

BUFFALO BILLS @ NEW YORK JETS
Line: 0
O/U: 39.5
This game may seem like it doesn't matter, but the Jets have to consider all of the playoff possibilities before writing it off. If they lose, they're the 6-seed. The 3-seed would be the Colts if Indy wins and KC loses...which would be good for the Jets, since Sanchez doesn't play particularly well in cold weather (Indy plays indoors). If the Jets win, PIT loses, and BAL wins, the Ravens win the North and the Jets are the 5-seed thanks to their head-to-head win over PIT a few weeks ago. They would then play the 4-seed, which is Indy if they win and the Chiefs win or if the Colts and Jags both lose. The 4-seed would be Jacksonville if they win and the Colts lose, so the Jets would get warm weather that way, too! Given the convoluted scenarios, which I am sure the Jets are aware of, I think they'll try to win. They're also the hard-nosed type of team that wants to win no matter what. Whether Sanchez plays or not remains to be seen, but I think the Jets can still beat Buffalo.
My Pick: Jets win 17-13.

CHICAGO BEARS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
Line: Packers -10
O/U: 41.5
Even though the Bears will likely rest some starters, I don't see them getting blown out. Yes, the Packers need a win to get to the postseason; but wouldn't Chicago love to stand in their way? Last year the Colts "allowed" the Jets to get in the playoffs by resting all of their starters in week 17, and Indy had to host the Jets a few weeks later in the playoffs! If the Bears "let" the Packers into the playoffs, they could potentially have their season ended by them! The fear of that situation coming to light should keep the Bears on their toes. Then again, I may be overthinking this...
My Pick: Bears +10. Packers win 17-14.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ HOUSTON TEXANS
Line: Jags -2.5
O/U: 49.5
The Texans are a mess, and the Jags are still alive for a playoff berth if Indy loses. It's unlikely, but Jacksonville will be playing hard just in case.
My Pick: Jags -2.5. Jacksonville wins 28-21.

TENNESSEE TITANS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Line: Colts -10
O/U: 48
This is basically a playoff game for Indy (win and they're in), and if I recall correctly, Peyton Manning is pretty darn good in playoff games! Plus the Titans are awful.
My Pick: Colts -10. Indy rolls 33-10.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Line: N/A
O/U: N/A
The Eagles know they're the 3-seed, so they'll be resting players. Dallas hates Philly, so they should come out with some intensity. Especially after listening to Garrett scream at them for the last week after losing to the lowly Cardinals.
My Pick: Cowboys win 20-10.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Line: Giants -4
O/U: 44.5
The Giants need a win and a Packers loss to get into the playoffs. I don't think they'll get the Packers' loss, but I certainly think they'll be ready to play against the Skins.
My Pick: Giants -4. New York wins 37-14.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ DENVER BRONCOS
Line: Chargers -3
O/U: 47
This one's for pride. I think the Broncos have more...
My Pick; Broncos +3. Denver wins 23-20.

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Line: 49ers -6
O/U: 38.5
This game is also for pride...I think the departure of Mike Singletary will negatively affect the team, and even though the Cards usually stink on the road, I have to go with them in this one.
My Pick: Cards +6. Arizona wins 20-10.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Line: Rams -3
O/U: 41.5
This one's for all the marbles in the NFC West! I'd like to see Seattle win, as I'd find it humorous for a playoff team to be under .500...and since Seattle is playing at home, and generally enjoys a big home field advantage, I will go with them! Even with Whitehurst starting at QB.
My Pick: Seahawks +3. Seattle wins the West 20-17.

Week Seventeen Preview

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
Line: Falcons -14.5
O/U: 41
I generally go against big spreads, but I think the Falcons will run the Panthers out of the Georgia Dome. A win means home field advantage throughout the playoffs, and Atlanta doesn't want to go into the postseason with two straight losses. Add to that Carolina's ineptitude, and you have a recipe for a blowout.
My Pick: Falcons -14.5. Atlanta rolls 34-3.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
Line: Ravens -9.5
O/U: 43
The Bengals seem to have the Ravens' number. Although Baltimore needs this win to have a shot at the division title and a first-round bye (with a PIT loss...), I just don't see it being a blowout.
My Pick: Bengals +9.5. Baltimore wins 23-20.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
Line: Steelers -5.5
O/U: 37.5
Pittsburgh is pretty darn good in big games. A win in Baltimore will give them a division title and a first-round bye. A loss, a BAL win, and a NYJ win would drop the Steelers down to a 6-seed! I expect them to beat the Browns somewhat handily.
My Pick: Steelers -5.5. Pittsburgh wins 24-10.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ DETROIT LIONS
Line: Lions -3
O/U: 42
Geez...I've gotta pick the Vikings, simply because they're underdogs in Detroit. I'm not thrilled that the quarterback is still unknown, but Favre will probably play, and it seems sacreligious for him to end his career with a loss.
My Pick: Vikings +3. Minny wins 23-13.

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Line: Chiefs -3.5
O/U: 43.5
If the Raiders win, they'll be the first team to ever SWEEP their division and still miss the playoffs. I want that to happen - it would make me laugh! Plus KC has very little to play for, and may not be "in it to win it".
My Pick: Raiders +3.5. Oakland wins 24-20.

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Line: Pats -3.5
O/U: 43
Can the Pats backups beat the Fins? Probably...but the odds are against them winning by 4 or more.
My Pick: Dolphins +3.5. New England still wins 20-17.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Line: Saints -8
O/U: 46.5
The Bucs need a win and a LOT of help to get in the playoffs. I doubt the Packers and Giants will BOTH lose, so chances are they're screwed either way. That said, they'll still be playing very hard. The Saints SHOULD be playing hard, but if I were on that team, I'd have to assume the Falcons were going to beat the Panthers to win the division and the bye. New orleans will get a virtual bye anyway, as they'll be the 5-seed in the NFC and will travel to play the winner of the NFC West in the first round, which shouldn't be much of a contest. So, in short, I'm not sure New Orleans will be 100% into this game, and could end up in a tight battle.
My Pick: Bucs +8. New Orleans wins 27-23.

BUFFALO BILLS @ NEW YORK JETS (Game can be heard Sunday on 1160 ESPN - pregame starts at Noon)
Line: 0
O/U: 39.5
This game may seem like it doesn't matter, but the Jets have to consider all of the playoff possibilities before writing it off. If they lose, they're the 6-seed. The 3-seed would be the Colts if Indy wins and KC loses...which would be good for the Jets, since Sanchez doesn't play particularly well in cold weather (Indy plays indoors). If the Jets win, PIT loses, and BAL wins, the Ravens win the North and the Jets are the 5-seed thanks to their head-to-head win over PIT a few weeks ago. They would then play the 4-seed, which is Indy if they win and the Chiefs win or if the Colts and Jags both lose. The 4-seed would be Jacksonville if they win and the Colts lose, so the Jets would get warm weather that way, too! Given the convoluted scenarios, which I am sure the Jets are aware of, I think they'll try to win. They're also the hard-nosed type of team that wants to win no matter what. Whether Sanchez plays or not remains to be seen, but I think the Jets can still beat Buffalo.
My Pick: Jets win 17-13.

CHICAGO BEARS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS (Game can be heard Sunday on 1160 ESPN at 4p)
Line: Packers -10
O/U: 41.5
Even though the Bears will likely rest some starters, I don't see them getting blown out. Yes, the Packers need a win to get to the postseason; but wouldn't Chicago love to stand in their way? Last year the Colts "allowed" the Jets to get in the playoffs by resting all of their starters in week 17, and Indy had to host the Jets a few weeks later in the playoffs! If the Bears "let" the Packers into the playoffs, they could potentially have their season ended by them! The fear of that situation coming to light should keep the Bears on their toes. Then again, I may be overthinking this...
My Pick: Bears +10. Packers win 17-14.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ HOUSTON TEXANS
Line: Jags -2.5
O/U: 49.5
The Texans are a mess, and the Jags are still alive for a playoff berth if Indy loses. It's unlikely, but Jacksonville will be playing hard just in case.
My Pick: Jags -2.5. Jacksonville wins 28-21.

TENNESSEE TITANS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Line: Colts -10
O/U: 48
This is basically a playoff game for Indy (win and they're in), and if I recall correctly, Peyton Manning is pretty darn good in playoff games! Plus the Titans are awful.
My Pick: Colts -10. Indy rolls 33-10.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Line: N/A
O/U: N/A
The Eagles know they're the 3-seed, so they'll be resting players. Dallas hates Philly, so they should come out with some intensity. Especially after listening to Garrett scream at them for the last week after losing to the lowly Cardinals.
My Pick: Cowboys win 20-10.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Line: Giants -4
O/U: 44.5
The Giants need a win and a Packers loss to get into the playoffs. I don't think they'll get the Packers' loss, but I certainly think they'll be ready to play against the Skins.
My Pick: Giants -4. New York wins 37-14.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ DENVER BRONCOS
Line: Chargers -3
O/U: 47
This one's for pride. I think the Broncos have more...
My Pick; Broncos +3. Denver wins 23-20.

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Line: 49ers -6
O/U: 38.5
This game is also for pride...I think the departure of Mike Singletary will negatively affect the team, and even though the Cards usually stink on the road, I have to go with them in this one.
My Pick: Cards +6. Arizona wins 20-10.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (Game can be heard Sunday Night on 1160 ESPN - Pregame starts at 7:30)
Line: Rams -3
O/U: 41.5
This one's for all the marbles in the NFC West! I'd like to see Seattle win, as I'd find it humorous for a playoff team to be under .500...and since Seattle is playing at home, and generally enjoys a big home field advantage, I will go with them! Even with Whitehurst starting at QB.
My Pick: Seahawks +3. Seattle wins the West 20-17.

Week Seventeen Preview

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
Line: Falcons -14.5
O/U: 41
I generally go against big spreads, but I think the Falcons will run the Panthers out of the Georgia Dome. A win means home field advantage throughout the playoffs, and Atlanta doesn't want to go into the postseason with two straight losses. Add to that Carolina's ineptitude, and you have a recipe for a blowout.
My Pick: Falcons -14.5. Atlanta rolls 34-3.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
Line: Ravens -9.5
O/U: 43
The Bengals seem to have the Ravens' number. Although Baltimore needs this win to have a shot at the division title and a first-round bye (with a PIT loss...), I just don't see it being a blowout.
My Pick: Bengals +9.5. Baltimore wins 23-20.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
Line: Steelers -5.5
O/U: 37.5
Pittsburgh is pretty darn good in big games. A win in Baltimore will give them a division title and a first-round bye. A loss, a BAL win, and a NYJ win would drop the Steelers down to a 6-seed! I expect them to beat the Browns somewhat handily.
My Pick: Steelers -5.5. Pittsburgh wins 24-10.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ DETROIT LIONS
Line: Lions -3
O/U: 42
Geez...I've gotta pick the Vikings, simply because they're underdogs in Detroit. I'm not thrilled that the quarterback is still unknown, but Favre will probably play, and it seems sacreligious for him to end his career with a loss.
My Pick: Vikings +3. Minny wins 23-13.

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Line: Chiefs -3.5
O/U: 43.5
If the Raiders win, they'll be the first team to ever SWEEP their division and still miss the playoffs. I want that to happen - it would make me laugh! Plus KC has very little to play for, and may not be "in it to win it".
My Pick: Raiders +3.5. Oakland wins 24-20.

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Line: Pats -3.5
O/U: 43
Can the Pats backups beat the Fins? Probably...but the odds are against them winning by 4 or more.
My Pick: Dolphins +3.5. New England still wins 20-17.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Line: Saints -8
O/U: 46.5
The Bucs need a win and a LOT of help to get in the playoffs. I doubt the Packers and Giants will BOTH lose, so chances are they're screwed either way. That said, they'll still be playing very hard. The Saints SHOULD be playing hard, but if I were on that team, I'd have to assume the Falcons were going to beat the Panthers to win the division and the bye. New orleans will get a virtual bye anyway, as they'll be the 5-seed in the NFC and will travel to play the winner of the NFC West in the first round, which shouldn't be much of a contest. So, in short, I'm not sure New Orleans will be 100% into this game, and could end up in a tight battle.
My Pick: Bucs +8. New Orleans wins 27-23.

BUFFALO BILLS @ NEW YORK JETS (Game can be heard Sunday on 1160 ESPN - pregame starts at Noon)
Line: 0
O/U: 39.5
This game may seem like it doesn't matter, but the Jets have to consider all of the playoff possibilities before writing it off. If they lose, they're the 6-seed. The 3-seed would be the Colts if Indy wins and KC loses...which would be good for the Jets, since Sanchez doesn't play particularly well in cold weather (Indy plays indoors). If the Jets win, PIT loses, and BAL wins, the Ravens win the North and the Jets are the 5-seed thanks to their head-to-head win over PIT a few weeks ago. They would then play the 4-seed, which is Indy if they win and the Chiefs win or if the Colts and Jags both lose. The 4-seed would be Jacksonville if they win and the Colts lose, so the Jets would get warm weather that way, too! Given the convoluted scenarios, which I am sure the Jets are aware of, I think they'll try to win. They're also the hard-nosed type of team that wants to win no matter what. Whether Sanchez plays or not remains to be seen, but I think the Jets can still beat Buffalo.
My Pick: Jets win 17-13.

CHICAGO BEARS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS (Game can be heard Sunday on 1160 ESPN at 4p)
Line: Packers -10
O/U: 41.5
Even though the Bears will likely rest some starters, I don't see them getting blown out. Yes, the Packers need a win to get to the postseason; but wouldn't Chicago love to stand in their way? Last year the Colts "allowed" the Jets to get in the playoffs by resting all of their starters in week 17, and Indy had to host the Jets a few weeks later in the playoffs! If the Bears "let" the Packers into the playoffs, they could potentially have their season ended by them! The fear of that situation coming to light should keep the Bears on their toes. Then again, I may be overthinking this...
My Pick: Bears +10. Packers win 17-14.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ HOUSTON TEXANS
Line: Jags -2.5
O/U: 49.5
The Texans are a mess, and the Jags are still alive for a playoff berth if Indy loses. It's unlikely, but Jacksonville will be playing hard just in case.
My Pick: Jags -2.5. Jacksonville wins 28-21.

TENNESSEE TITANS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Line: Colts -10
O/U: 48
This is basically a playoff game for Indy (win and they're in), and if I recall correctly, Peyton Manning is pretty darn good in playoff games! Plus the Titans are awful.
My Pick: Colts -10. Indy rolls 33-10.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Line: N/A
O/U: N/A
The Eagles know they're the 3-seed, so they'll be resting players. Dallas hates Philly, so they should come out with some intensity. Especially after listening to Garrett scream at them for the last week after losing to the lowly Cardinals.
My Pick: Cowboys win 20-10.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Line: Giants -4
O/U: 44.5
The Giants need a win and a Packers loss to get into the playoffs. I don't think they'll get the Packers' loss, but I certainly think they'll be ready to play against the Skins.
My Pick: Giants -4. New York wins 37-14.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ DENVER BRONCOS
Line: Chargers -3
O/U: 47
This one's for pride. I think the Broncos have more...
My Pick; Broncos +3. Denver wins 23-20.

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Line: 49ers -6
O/U: 38.5
This game is also for pride...I think the departure of Mike Singletary will negatively affect the team, and even though the Cards usually stink on the road, I have to go with them in this one.
My Pick: Cards +6. Arizona wins 20-10.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (Game can be heard Sunday Night on 1160 ESPN - Pregame starts at 7:30)
Line: Rams -3
O/U: 41.5
This one's for all the marbles in the NFC West! I'd like to see Seattle win, as I'd find it humorous for a playoff team to be under .500...and since Seattle is playing at home, and generally enjoys a big home field advantage, I will go with them! Even with Whitehurst starting at QB.
My Pick: Seahawks +3. Seattle wins the West 20-17.

Week Seventeen Preview

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
Line: Falcons -14.5
O/U: 41
I generally go against big spreads, but I think the Falcons will run the Panthers out of the Georgia Dome. A win means home field advantage throughout the playoffs, and Atlanta doesn't want to go into the postseason with two straight losses. Add to that Carolina's ineptitude, and you have a recipe for a blowout.
My Pick: Falcons -14.5. Atlanta rolls 34-3.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
Line: Ravens -9.5
O/U: 43
The Bengals seem to have the Ravens' number. Although Baltimore needs this win to have a shot at the division title and a first-round bye (with a PIT loss...), I just don't see it being a blowout.
My Pick: Bengals +9.5. Baltimore wins 23-20.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
Line: Steelers -5.5
O/U: 37.5
Pittsburgh is pretty darn good in big games. A win in Baltimore will give them a division title and a first-round bye. A loss, a BAL win, and a NYJ win would drop the Steelers down to a 6-seed! I expect them to beat the Browns somewhat handily.
My Pick: Steelers -5.5. Pittsburgh wins 24-10.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ DETROIT LIONS
Line: Lions -3
O/U: 42
Geez...I've gotta pick the Vikings, simply because they're underdogs in Detroit. I'm not thrilled that the quarterback is still unknown, but Favre will probably play, and it seems sacreligious for him to end his career with a loss.
My Pick: Vikings +3. Minny wins 23-13.

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Line: Chiefs -3.5
O/U: 43.5
If the Raiders win, they'll be the first team to ever SWEEP their division and still miss the playoffs. I want that to happen - it would make me laugh! Plus KC has very little to play for, and may not be "in it to win it".
My Pick: Raiders +3.5. Oakland wins 24-20.

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Line: Pats -3.5
O/U: 43
Can the Pats backups beat the Fins? Probably...but the odds are against them winning by 4 or more.
My Pick: Dolphins +3.5. New England still wins 20-17.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Line: Saints -8
O/U: 46.5
The Bucs need a win and a LOT of help to get in the playoffs. I doubt the Packers and Giants will BOTH lose, so chances are they're screwed either way. That said, they'll still be playing very hard. The Saints SHOULD be playing hard, but if I were on that team, I'd have to assume the Falcons were going to beat the Panthers to win the division and the bye. New orleans will get a virtual bye anyway, as they'll be the 5-seed in the NFC and will travel to play the winner of the NFC West in the first round, which shouldn't be much of a contest. So, in short, I'm not sure New Orleans will be 100% into this game, and could end up in a tight battle.
My Pick: Bucs +8. New Orleans wins 27-23.

BUFFALO BILLS @ NEW YORK JETS (Game can be heard Sunday on 1160 ESPN - pregame starts at Noon)
Line: 0
O/U: 39.5
This game may seem like it doesn't matter, but the Jets have to consider all of the playoff possibilities before writing it off. If they lose, they're the 6-seed. The 3-seed would be the Colts if Indy wins and KC loses...which would be good for the Jets, since Sanchez doesn't play particularly well in cold weather (Indy plays indoors). If the Jets win, PIT loses, and BAL wins, the Ravens win the North and the Jets are the 5-seed thanks to their head-to-head win over PIT a few weeks ago. They would then play the 4-seed, which is Indy if they win and the Chiefs win or if the Colts and Jags both lose. The 4-seed would be Jacksonville if they win and the Colts lose, so the Jets would get warm weather that way, too! Given the convoluted scenarios, which I am sure the Jets are aware of, I think they'll try to win. They're also the hard-nosed type of team that wants to win no matter what. Whether Sanchez plays or not remains to be seen, but I think the Jets can still beat Buffalo.
My Pick: Jets win 17-13.

CHICAGO BEARS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS (Game can be heard Sunday on 1160 ESPN at 4p)
Line: Packers -10
O/U: 41.5
Even though the Bears will likely rest some starters, I don't see them getting blown out. Yes, the Packers need a win to get to the postseason; but wouldn't Chicago love to stand in their way? Last year the Colts "allowed" the Jets to get in the playoffs by resting all of their starters in week 17, and Indy had to host the Jets a few weeks later in the playoffs! If the Bears "let" the Packers into the playoffs, they could potentially have their season ended by them! The fear of that situation coming to light should keep the Bears on their toes. Then again, I may be overthinking this...
My Pick: Bears +10. Packers win 17-14.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ HOUSTON TEXANS
Line: Jags -2.5
O/U: 49.5
The Texans are a mess, and the Jags are still alive for a playoff berth if Indy loses. It's unlikely, but Jacksonville will be playing hard just in case.
My Pick: Jags -2.5. Jacksonville wins 28-21.

TENNESSEE TITANS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Line: Colts -10
O/U: 48
This is basically a playoff game for Indy (win and they're in), and if I recall correctly, Peyton Manning is pretty darn good in playoff games! Plus the Titans are awful.
My Pick: Colts -10. Indy rolls 33-10.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Line: N/A
O/U: N/A
The Eagles know they're the 3-seed, so they'll be resting players. Dallas hates Philly, so they should come out with some intensity. Especially after listening to Garrett scream at them for the last week after losing to the lowly Cardinals.
My Pick: Cowboys win 20-10.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Line: Giants -4
O/U: 44.5
The Giants need a win and a Packers loss to get into the playoffs. I don't think they'll get the Packers' loss, but I certainly think they'll be ready to play against the Skins.
My Pick: Giants -4. New York wins 37-14.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ DENVER BRONCOS
Line: Chargers -3
O/U: 47
This one's for pride. I think the Broncos have more...
My Pick; Broncos +3. Denver wins 23-20.

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Line: 49ers -6
O/U: 38.5
This game is also for pride...I think the departure of Mike Singletary will negatively affect the team, and even though the Cards usually stink on the road, I have to go with them in this one.
My Pick: Cards +6. Arizona wins 20-10.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (Game can be heard Sunday Night on 1160 ESPN - Pregame starts at 7:30)
Line: Rams -3
O/U: 41.5
This one's for all the marbles in the NFC West! I'd like to see Seattle win, as I'd find it humorous for a playoff team to be under .500...and since Seattle is playing at home, and generally enjoys a big home field advantage, I will go with them! Even with Whitehurst starting at QB.
My Pick: Seahawks +3. Seattle wins the West 20-17.

Week Sixteen Recap

Week Sixteen Picks: 8-8
Week Sixteen ATS: 8-8
Overall Picks: 153-87
Overall ATS: 129-106-5

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Line: Steelers -14.5
O/U: 37
My Pick: Panthers +14.5. Pittsburgh wins 27-13.
Result: Steelers 27-3
As I said, I've done this before and been burned by Pittsburgh. Somehow they're able to blow teams out on cold, run-heavy evenings...

DALLAS COWBOYS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS
Line: Cowboys -7
O/U: 45.5
My Pick: Cowboys -7. Dallas wins 30-20.
Result: Cards 27-26
I was concerned that Dallas might lay an egg...and they did. Awful.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ BUFFALO BILLS
Line: Pats -7.5
O/U: 44
My Pick: Pats -7.5. New England rolls 34-13.
Result: Pats 34-3
Did anyone really think the Bills would match up well against the Pats?

NEW YORK JETS @ CHICAGO BEARS
Line: Bears -1
O/U: 36.5
My Pick: Jets +1. New York wins 13-10.
Result: Bears 38-34
I have no explanation for this one...anyone who picked this game to end with both teams over 30 points should be committed...

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
Line: Ravens -3
O/U: 39.5
My Pick: Ravens -3. Baltimore wins 33-13.
Result: Ravens 20-10
Not the dominating performance I expected, but the Ravens are still in the running for the AFC North title!

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Line: Jaguars -7
O/U: 46
My Pick: Redskins +7. Jacksonville wins 27-24.
Result: Skins 20-17
The Redskins end the season having played EVERY AFC South team to within 3 points! Weird. Jacksonville still has a shot at the playoffs, apparently, although ESPN sounded like they had written them off after the loss...An Indy loss and a Jags win would get the Jags in on the "division record" tiebreaker.

TENNESSEE TITANS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Line: Chiefs -4.5
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Titans +4.5. Tennessee wins outright 17-13.
Result: Chiefs 34-14
My gut may be big, but apparently it's not very smart.

DETROIT LIONS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS
Line: Dolphins -3.5
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Lions +3.5. Detroit wins outright 20-14.
Result: Lions 34-27
Knew it! Miami sucks at home.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS
Line: Rams -2.5
O/U: 39.5
My Pick: 49ers +2.5. San Fran wins 26-17.
Result: Rams 25-17
San Fran is done, as well they should be. I let my desire to see a 3-way tie in the NFC West cloud my better judgement...

HOUSTON TEXANS @ DENVER BRONCOS
Line: Texans -3
O/U: 48.5
My Pick: Texans -3. Houston wins 24-10.
Result: Broncos 24-23
Houston should be ashamed of themselves. They were up big and blew it. Ridiculous. I really hate the Broncos...they screw me out of picks at least 10 times a season.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 47
My Pick: Colts -3. Indy wins 30-20.
Result: Colts 31-26
Oakland put up a good fight, but just couldn't get it done. It'd be funny if they won next week...they'd become the first team to ever sweep their division and still miss the playoffs!

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
Line: Chargers -7
O/U: 44
My Pick: Chargers -7. San Diego wins 23-13.
Result: Bengals 34-20
Speaking of being ashamed of themselves...At least San Diego gets to go home, sit on the couch for the next 8 months, and really let their despicable failure set in...

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Line: Bucs -5.5
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Bucs -5.5. Tampa wins 26-14.
Result: Bucs 38-15
Tampa stays alive, but need a lot of help. Either NO or ATL will get one wild card spot, so there's only one left for the NYG, GB, and TB to fight over. Tampa has no tiebreakers, so they need BOTH of the other two teams to lose, and they'll need to get a win over NO...no easy task with the Saints fighting for the division title and a first round bye. (Note: Even if ATL wins the division, New Orleans basically gets a first-round bye...they'll be the 5-seed, and will play the 4-seed, which is going to be the winner of the NFC West. So in essence, a bye...)

NEW YORK GIANTS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
Line: Packers -2.5
O/U: 43
My Pick: Packers -2.5. Green Bay wins 30-23.
Result: Packers 45-17
Nothing like a blowout! Green Bay is too good to miss out on the playoffs. Assuming they win this week and get in, they'll go to Philly in round one - which is a win-able game.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Line: Eagles -15.5
O/U: 43
My Pick: Eagles -15.5. Philly rolls 34-10.
Result: Vikings 24-14
Yuck. I'm blaming this one on rescheduling! Philly was too worried about having to play 3 games in 12 or 13 days and didn't seem ready for the Vikings. Plus Vick got hurt on the first play of the game...that may have affected things, too. Looks like a rematch with the Giants or Packers in round one...who would they prefer? They beat the Giants twice, but New York has to be PISSED about that last one. Green Bay beat Philly, but you have to imagine that Philly would have a better shot in round two.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
Line: Falcons -2.5
O/U: 48.5
My Pick: Saints +2.5. New Orleans wins 31-30.
Result: Saints 17-14
Atlanta will still win the division - they play Carolina in week 17, and the Falcons haven't lost to any bad teams yet this season.

Week Sixteen Preview

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Line: Steelers -14.5
O/U: 37
There is a low of 22 in Pittsburgh tonight with a chance of flurries...if it gets snowy and slick, both teams will rely heavily on the run game. Then again, they'll both rely heavily on the run game anyway - Carolina because they have no QB, and Pittsburgh because smash-mouth football is in their nature. I'm just not sure that Pittsburgh will crush Carolina by enough points to cover, given the conditions under which they'll be playing. The problem? The last time I picked against the Steelers as a 2-touchdown favorite in cold weather for the exact same reasons, I got burned.
Playoff Implications: PIT has already clinched a playoff berth. If PIT wins and BAL loses, PIT wins AFC North. They may also clinch a bye - KC could win out to tie PIT at 11-5 (w PIT loss at CLE in week 17), but the tiebreaker with the Steelers would end up going to strength of victory, and I'm not about to figure that one out...I assume, however, that the Steelers' wins over the Falcons and Ravens would be good enough to win them the tiebreaker. So assume they clinch a bye with a win and a Ravens loss. Basically, the Steelers play the Panthers and Browns the final two weeks, so pencil them in as AFC North champs and the 2-seed.
My Pick: Panthers +14.5. Pittsburgh wins 27-13.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS
Line: Cowboys -7
O/U: 45.5
I'm starting to worry that the Cowboys might pack it in, given the futility of these last few games and how little effort they expended early in the year. But the Cardinals are REALLY bad...and I honestly think most of the Cowboys are deathly afraid of Jason Garrett...it's the only explanation for their sudden burst of energy.
Playoff Implications: None
My Pick: Cowboys -7. Dallas wins 30-20.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ BUFFALO BILLS
Line: Pats -7.5
O/U: 44
I don't care how well the Bills are playing - The Pats have "had their number" for years...
Playoff Implications: New England has already clinched a playoff berth. With a win, they win the AFC East and clinch the #1-seed. If they lose, NYJ, PIT, or BAL would have to win out to tie NE, and the Pats would lose the #1 seed and the division to the Jets based on their record within the division. It seems unlikely, though...
My Pick: Pats -7.5. New England rolls 34-13.

NEW YORK JETS @ CHICAGO BEARS
Line: Bears -1
O/U: 36.5
The Jets have played well on the road and have proven that they can win close games. I expect this to be a low-scoring defensive battle, but if the scoring gets out of control, the Jets could be in trouble.
Playoff Implications: NYJ clinch a playoff berth with a win. They can win out and have a shot at the AFC East Title and a #1-seed, but the Pats would have to lose out. CHI has already clinched their division, and are fighting with ATL/NO, and PHI for seeding. A win and a Philly loss guarantees CHI a first round bye, as they hold the tiebreaker over the Eagles (Head-to-Head Win).
My Pick: Jets +1. New York wins 13-10.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
Line: Ravens -3
O/U: 39.5
Cleveland tends to play hard against the Ravens (there is a lot of history there...), but with the Ravens still battling for the NFC North crown and a first-round bye, I think they'll flush the Browns pretty easily.
Playoff Implications: BAL clinches a playoff berth with a win. A win and a PIT loss puts them on top of the division and allows them to control their own destiny. Losses by JAX AND SD would also clinch a playoff spot for BAL.
My Pick: Ravens -3. Baltimore wins 33-13.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Line: Jaguars -7
O/U: 46
The Redskins are a mess right now. I don't care how many touchdown passes Rex Grossman had against the Cowboys - it was clearly an anomaly. Jacksonville's Pass D isn't great, but Washington's is worse. Then again, Washington beat the Titans by 3 and lost to the Colts and Texans by 3 each, so a spread of seven against the Skins' final AFC South opponent seems high.
Playoff Implications: A Jacksonville loss and an Indy win eliminates the Jags from playoff contention and gives the division to the Colts. A win and a Colts loss clinches nothing, but allows JAX to control its own destiny in week 17.
My Pick: Redskins +7. Jacksonville wins 27-24.

TENNESSEE TITANS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Line: Chiefs -4.5
O/U: 42.5
The Chiefs could (and should...) win the AFC West. They've been playing solid football, and even the Matt Cassel appendectomy barely slowed them down. Tennessee doesn't have the run defense to stop KC's attack, and despite a good performance last week, I don't think the Titans offense offers enough consistency to beat the Chiefs on the road. That said, I have a strange gut feeling on this one that I'm going to have to go with...
Playoff Implications: KC clinches the AFC West with a win and a SD loss. SD holds the tiebreaker over KC, so KC has to win out or hope for at least 1 SD loss to win the division.
My Pick: Titans +4.5. Tennessee wins outright 17-13.

DETROIT LIONS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS
Line: Dolphins -3.5
O/U: 41.5
The Bills eliminated the Fins from the playoffs last week (haha), the Fins don't play well at home, and the Lions have beaten the spread quite a few times this year despite not having a lot to show for it at 3-11. All signs point to upset.
Playoff Implications: None
My Pick: Lions +3.5. Detroit wins outright 20-14.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS
Line: Rams -2.5
O/U: 39.5
Could the 49ers really start 1-6 and still win their division? Geez...what an awful year for the NFC West. If San Fran wins, they are tied for the division lead (assuming Seattle loses to Tampa, which is likely), and they hold the tiebreaker. So I imagine they'll be playing pretty hard. St. Louis has been solid at times, but I still think of San Fran as the underachieving team that everyone picked to win the division in the first place. So why not overcome a 1-6 start to win it anyway?
Playoff Implications: SF is eliminated with a loss. SF leads the west with a win and a Seattle loss, as they'd hold tiebreakers over STL and SEA. SEA plays STL in week 17, so unless SF wins this week and next, that game will determine who goes to the playoffs from the West.
My Pick: 49ers +2.5. San Fran wins 26-17.

HOUSTON TEXANS @ DENVER BRONCOS
Line: Texans -3
O/U: 48.5
Neither one of these teams in in great shape...I guess I have to take the Texans, simply because they have the potential to do some big things on offense.
Playoff Implications: None
My Pick: Texans -3. Houston wins 24-10.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 47
Really? Just 3? Indy is in position to win the AFC South, despite extensive injuries and some bad losses. I can't imagine they'll blow this one. The Raiders have beaten some good teams, but I don't think they'll be surprising the Colts.
Playoff Implications: If OAK wins out AND KC loses out AND SD loses at least once, OAK wins the AFC West. A loss eliminates OAK from playoff contention. IND wins the AFC South with a win and a JAX loss. An IND loss eliminates them from wild card contention, but they could still win the division depending on what JAX does this week and next.
My Pick: Colts -3. Indy wins 30-20.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
Line: Chargers -7
O/U: 44
No T.O. means no way. He has been their only bright spot all year long. They have too many issues to pull off a big upset against a Chargers team that still needs wins to get in the playoffs.
Playoff Implications: SD is eliminated from playoff contention if KC wins and SD loses. If both win or SD wins and KC loses, the division title will be decided in week 17, with SD holding the tiebreaker should both teams finish with identical records. If both KC AND SD lose this week, the Raiders would win the division with a victory over KC next week. Otherwise the division title would depend on what SD does in week 17.
My Pick: Chargers -7. San Diego wins 23-13.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Line: Bucs -5.5
O/U: 43.5
The Seahawks are bad on the road and the Bucs are coming off of their first bad loss of the year. They'll be amped up, and will take down the Hawks.
Playoff Implications: A TB loss and a NYG win would eliminate the Bucs. A NO win guarantees that TB is playing for the 6-seed, and fighting NYG and GB. Otherwise TB's playoff life is in the hands of distant tiebreakers, such as strength of victory. I don't think they'd beat GB or NYG on that stat, so the likely scenario for a TB playoff berth is that they'll need to win out and hope that GB beats NYG this week and that both teams lose in week 17. SEA is in a mess in the NFC West - See the STL game above for further explanation.
My Pick: Bucs -5.5. Tampa wins 26-14.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
Line: Packers -2.5
O/U: 43
This'll be a great game! Both teams are basically done with a loss, so neither can leave anything in the bag. It'd be a bigger surprise to see the Packers miss the playoffs, but the Giants have played some big games, too. After the way they lost to the Eagles last week, they'll either be extra juiced up for this game, or they'll still be down on themselves. With Rodgers back, I'm not sure it matters either way. And the Packers D has been stellar all year.
Playoff Implications: NYG are in with a win. GB is eliminated with a loss. A GB win leaves both tied at 9-6, and depending on what TB does, they could be in that mix, too. The Giants are still alive for the NFC East crown, but they'd need to win out and watch PHI lose out. So if things go according to my predictions (GB wins, TB wins...) the wild card race will be very messy, and it will all come down to week 17, and possibly some goofy tiebreaking scenarios.
My Pick: Packers -2.5. Green Bay wins 30-23.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Line: Eagles -15.5
O/U: 43
This would have been one heck of a week 16 game if Minnesota had lived up to their potential. Too bad it won't be...The Vikings likely won't have Favre, and Peterson is banged up as well. The Minnesota defense has proven time and again that it can't keep the Vikings in games without help from the offense. They won't get any, and Vick won't have any mercy as he tries to get his team a first round bye.
Playoff Implications: PHI clinches the NFC East with a win. They can't clinch a bye yet due to their tie with CHI and the fact that CHI holds the tiebreaker over them. A PHI loss and a CHI win eliminates PHI from the bye discussion. A PHI loss also allows NYG to have a shot at the division if they win out and PHI loses again in week 17.
My Pick: Eagles -15.5. Philly rolls 34-10.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
Line: Falcons -2.5
O/U: 48.5
This should be the best game of the week! Both teams are used to playing in domes, and I don't expect either to come out and dominate the other. It should be back-and-forth. Atlanta won in New Orleans earlier in the year - I think New Orleans will use that knowledge to fuel their effort on Monday night. The Saints will also be amped up after a loss to Baltimore last week. This division is too good not to go down to the final weekend!
Playoff Implications: ATL wins the division and the #1-seed with a win. ATL has already clinched a playoff berth. NO has to win out and watch ATL lose out to win the division. NO clinches a playoff berth with a win.
My Pick: Saints +2.5. New Orleans wins 31-30.

Week Fifteen Recap

Week Fifteen Picks: 11-5

Week Fifteen ATS: 11-5

Overall Picks: 145-79

Overall ATS: 121-98-5

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Line: Chargers -9.5

O/U: 44.5

My Pick: Chargers -9.5. San Diego rolls 33-16.

Result: Chargers 34-7

Close enough. That one was predictable...

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

Line: Ravens -1.5

O/U: 43.5

My Pick: Ravens -1.5. Baltimore wins 20-17.

Result: Ravens 30-24

A little less Baltimore defense than I expected, but they still pulled it out. This could be a Super Bowl preview, depending on how the playoffs shake out.

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

Line: Panthers -2.5

O/U: 38

My Pick: Cards +2.5. Arizona wins 23-20.

Result: Panthers 19-12

I never should have picked the Cards to do anything positive on the East Coast.

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

Line: Bengals -1.5

O/U: 40

My Pick: Bengals -1.5. Cincy wins 23-20.

Result: Bengals 19-17

The Bengals made that one a little too close for comfort! TO's injury would have been devastating if Cincy wasn't already irrelevant...

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ DALLAS COWBOYS

Line: Cowboys -5.5

O/U: 46

My Pick: Cowboys -5.5. Dallas wins 27-13.

Result: Cowboys 33-30

Really Dallas? You let Rex Grossman throw 4 TD passes against your defense? Wow.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Line: Colts -5

O/U: 48.5

My Pick: Colts -5. Indy shows why they've won the AFC South 6 of the last 7 years with a 34-14 drubbing of the Jags.

Result: Colts 34-24

The Jags stayed with the Colts better than I expected. Thank goodness for that awful onside kick that was easily returned for a TD - otherwise the Colts would have killed the clock and I wouldn't have beaten the spread!

BUFFALO BILLS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

Line: Dolphins -5.5

O/U: 40

My Pick: Bills +5.5. Buffalo wins outright 17-13.

Result: Bills 17-14

One point off - Pretty darn good. Never go against the Bills beating the Fins at least once a year...we hate them like Cornell hates Harvard (Ok, maybe not quite THAT much...but I did have a "run-in" with a drunk Dolphins fan in the bathroom of Shula's steakhouse and bar when I was 19...let's just say it was pretty solid evidence that there is no love lost between the Bills and Fins)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ NEW YORK GIANTS

Line: Giants -2.5

O/U: 46

My Pick: Giants -2.5. NY wins 23-20.

Result: Eagles 38-31

Well worth it. I'll take that loss - I was laughing my butt off when Jackson picked up that ball and shot right up the middle toward the endzone...you just kinda had the feeling it would happen! Note: I was also laughing during both big Vick runs late in the game, and when the Eagles executed that stellar onside kick. At that time, however, I still thought I was going to win the game against the spread...

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

Line: Rams -3

O/U: 42.5

My Pick: Chiefs win 24-13.

Result: Chiefs 27-13

Not bad! I'm having a good week...

DETROIT LIONS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Line: Bucs -6

O/U: 43

My Pick: Lions +6. Bucs win 20-17.

Result: Lions 23-20 (ot)

ANOTHER 23-20 overtime game! Look back at the schedule - you'll be amazed at how many times this has been the final score of an NFL Overtime game in 2010. I didn't call the Lions to win, but I should have - I knew they'd play the Bucs tough.

HOUSTON TEXANS @ TENNESSEE TITANS

Line: Titans -1.5

O/U: 47.5

My Pick: Texans +1.5. Houston wins 34-23.

Result: Titans 31-17

I thought the Texans would be fighting against the Titans, and not against each other!

ATLANTA FALCONS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Line: Falcons -6

O/U: 45

My Pick: Falcons -6. Atlanta rolls 34-10.

Result: Falcons 34-18

Atlanta is a solid football team...their consistency is phenomenal...but can they win the big game in the playoffs? We'll find out...

DENVER BRONCOS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

Line: Raiders -6.5

O/U: 43

My Pick: Broncos +6.5. Denver wins outright 23-20.

Result: Raiders 39-23

I forgot the Denver "catch-22"! Denver screws me over a lot, so I tend to pick against my gut when it comes to the Broncos. What I forgot was that no matter what I pick Denver to do, they'll do the opposite. So it had nothing to do with going against my gut...I was bound to lose this one either way.

NEW YORK JETS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Line: Steelers -6

O/U: 36

My Pick: Jets +6. New York wins outright 19-17.

Result: Jets 22-17

The Jets still haven't shown much offensively...thank goodness for Brad Smith! They better figure things out before the playoffs. In the playoffs, defense becomes even more important, so if they can get a serviceable effort from the offense by then, they could contend in the AFC - As long as they don't lay an egg against the Pats again!

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Line: Pats -14

O/U: 43.5

My Pick: Pats win 30-17.

Result: Pats 31-27

Wow am I lucky! I picked the Pats to win by 13 before I knew the spread, and as it turns out, the spread was 14 - So I got a freebie! The Packers may miss the playoffs...Yikes! I didn't see that one coming.

CHICAGO BEARS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Line: Bears -5.5

O/U: 34

My Pick: Bears 21-6.

Result: Bears 40-14

Ok then...Do the Vikings have a defense anymore? I thought that was their strong suit...no matter how bad Favre and/or Jackson and/or That other QB who I don't know plays, the Vikings' D and Adrian Peterson should have been able to keep them in games this year. It just hasn't happened. Quite the difficult year in Minnesota - Even their stadium couldn't make it through unscathed!

Week Fifteen Preview

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Line: Chargers -9.5
O/U: 44.5
Both teams will be treating this game as a must win, but I still don't think it'll be that close. Alex Smith put up 40 points last week - There's no way the 49ers will keep the offense chugging along at that pace. While their offense struggles, their defense will be finding out that they aren't strong enough to keep up with the Chargers pass game. This combination of offensive and defensive ineptitude should result in a comfortable Chargers win.
My Pick: Chargers -9.5. San Diego rolls 33-16.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
Line: Ravens -1.5
O/U: 43.5
The Ravens didn't look very good last week against the Texans, blowing a huge lead and winning in overtime against a Houston team that has been struggling defensively. If the Ravens secondary allows Brees to pick them apart the way Schaub did, it'll be a long afternoon in Baltimore. The Saints have been getting better and better, and could make some noise in the playoffs once again. The way the NFC South title has historically bounced around, however, I think it's the Falcons' year to take down the division. Whether or not the Falcons win their head-to-head match-up with the Saints next week remains to be seen - but I think it's likely that they'll be two games ahead after this weekend, as Baltimore's defense will undoubtedly rebound from a poor showing last Monday night.
My Pick: Ravens -1.5. Baltimore wins 20-17.

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS
Line: Panthers -2.5
O/U: 38
Like the rest of America, I don't care about this game at all...I'd pick the Panthers, but it seems ridiculous that they'd be favored, at 1-12, to beat a team that put up 43 points last week. So I have to go against them, even though the Cards play like idiots every time they venture to the East Coast.
My Pick: Cards +2.5. Arizona wins 23-20.

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
Line: Bengals -1.5
O/U: 40
It's the "who cares" bowl! The Bengals stink - unless they're playing the Ravens, they'll lose. Then again, the Ravens used to be the Browns...
My Pick: Bengals -1.5. Cincy wins 23-20.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ DALLAS COWBOYS
Line: Cowboys -5.5
O/U: 46
The Cowboys are playing for pride, and have been ever since Jason Garrett became their surprisingly effective coach. The Redskins have some major issues, and I just don't think they care as much as the Cowboys do right now. Six weeks ago I never thought I'd construct such a sentence...when they were at the peak of their despair, the Cowboys cared less than every other team in football. At any level.
My Pick: Cowboys -5.5. Dallas wins 27-13.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Line: Colts -5
O/U: 48.5
Peyton Manning's back is up against the wall...A loss all but dooms his season. What do you think will happen?
My Pick: Colts -5. Indy shows why they've won the AFC South 6 of the last 7 years with a 34-14 drubbing of the Jags.

BUFFALO BILLS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS
Line: Dolphins -5.5
O/U: 40
My former radio show producer - An enormous Bills fan - Predicted 4 Buffalo wins this season, noting that Miami would be one of them. Who am I to disagree?
My Pick: Bills +5.5. Buffalo wins outright 17-13.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ NEW YORK GIANTS
Line: Giants -2.5
O/U: 46
The Eagles played a very complete game against the Giants a few weeks ago...I'm not sure they can live up to that standard again. New York is solid, but inconsistent. I worry about them more in games against lesser opposition, however, than I do when emotions are high and there is a great deal at stake. This game falls into the latter category. Plus, all else equal, NFC East teams tend to split their season series.
My Pick: Giants -2.5. NY wins 23-20.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS
Line: N/A
O/U: N/A
If Croyle plays again, the Chiefs could be in trouble. I think Cassel will be back, though, and after last week's embarrassment the Chiefs will be ready to play. Cassel can be 80% and still win...it's having the appearance of a decent pass game that frees up the KC running backs, which is where all of their offense comes from anyway.
My Pick: Chiefs win 24-13.

DETROIT LIONS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Line: Bucs -6
O/U: 43
Detroit just beat Green Bay...that's the better of the "Bays"...I think Tampa will win, as they haven't lost to any bad teams yet this season, but I don't think it'll be by 6. If Stanton plays instead of Hill, though, expect Tampa to have a better shot at beating the spread.
My Pick: Lions +6. Bucs win 20-17.

HOUSTON TEXANS @ TENNESSEE TITANS
Line: Titans -1.5
O/U: 47.5
The Texans played pretty well against the Ravens last week, and the Titans are still a mess. Collins gives them a shot to win, but I'm not sure that defense will be able to stop Schaub. The Ravens couldn't stop them...do you really think the Titans can?
My Pick: Texans +1.5. Houston wins 34-23.

ATLANTA FALCONS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Line: Falcons -6
O/U: 45
If this isn't a blowout the Falcons should be ashamed of themselves.
My Pick: Falcons -6. Atlanta rolls 34-10.

DENVER BRONCOS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS
Line: Raiders -6.5
O/U: 43
Denver is in disrepair - but that's the sort of team the Raiders generally find a way to lose to. I hate to do this, but I've learned from 3 seasons of Broncos ridiculousness. If it looks like the Broncos have no shot, they'll probably win.
My Pick: Broncos +6.5. Denver wins outright 23-20.

NEW YORK JETS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Line: Steelers -6
O/U: 36
Easy pick. The Steelers are good and the Jets have been struggling. But I wouldn't give ANY team 6 points when playing a Rex Ryan-coached squad coming off of two losses.
My Pick: Jets +6. New York wins outright 19-17.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Line: N/A
O/U: N/A
Even if Rodgers plays, these Pats look eerily similar to the really good Pats from a few years ago, in that they're the top scoring team in the NFL and seem to be blowing everyone out. It took them some time to hit their stride, but I think they're a strong Super Bowl contender at this point in the season. Green Bay is dangerously close to missing the playoffs...if Rodgers plays they have a shot; if Flynn plays they'll be blown out.
My Pick: Pats win 30-17.

CHICAGO BEARS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Line: N/A
O/U: N/A
Three line-less games in one week? This is absurd. Minnesota will be playing their first outdoor home game in a very long time, and they're playing a defense-and-rushing-minded Bears squad that is not only good, but knows how to play in the elements. Plus they might be starting someone I've never heard of at QB. That's even worse than starting Tarvaris Jackson!
My Pick: Bears 21-6.

Week Fourteen Recap

Week Fourteen Picks: 12-4
Week Fourteen ATS: 9-7
Overall Picks: 134-74
Overall ATS: 110-93-5

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ TENNESSEE TITANS
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 45
My Pick: Colts -3. Indy wins 27-10.
Result: Colts 30-28
Tennessee HAD to score with no time left on the clock...I'm sure a lot of people lost a lot of money on that useless touchdown. Stupid Titans.

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ BUFFALO BILLS
Line: Bills -1
O/U: 39.5
My Pick: Bills -1. Buffalo wins 17-10.
Result: Bills 13-6
Yay! My Bills found a way to get win #3...and I called it!

ATLANTA FALCONS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS
Line: Falcons -7
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Falcons -7. Atlanta wins 27-13.
Result: Falcons 31-10
Atlanta has beaten all of the teams they were supposed to beat...which can't be said of certain NFL powerhouses (I'm looking at you, New England...)

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ DETROIT LIONS
Line: Packers -6.5
O/U: 46
My Pick: Packers -6.5. Green Bay wins 28-20.
Result: Lions 7-3
It's tough to predict a major injury...But I really thought the Lions would keep it close, and should have picked them to cover. I just didn't trust Drew Stanton.

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Line: Jaguars -3.5
O/U: 43
My Pick: Jaguars -3.5. Jacksonville wins 20-10.
Result: Jaguars 38-31
I'm glad MJD broke that big TD run late - if he hadn't, the Jags likely would have ended up with a field goal, which would have cost me the win by half a point.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Line: Giants -2.5
O/U: 43
My Pick: Giants -2.5. New York wins 23-20.
Result: Giants 21-3
Favre didn't play, which explains the lack of Vikings points. It's too bad Favre came back...he'd have been better off staying home this season and going out on a much higher note.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Line: Steelers -8.5
O/U: 39.5
My Pick: Steelers -8.5. Pittsburgh wins 27-17.
Result: Steelers 23-7
Special thanks to Carson Palmer for throwing two pick-6's...The Steelers wouldn't have had any touchdowns without Carson's help, and I'd have lost this one against the rather large spread!

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Line: Bucs -1.5
O/U: 41
My Pick: Bucs -1.5. Tampa wins 23-20.
Result: Bucs 17-16
I needed Washington to hit that extra point so that Tampa could win it in OT...How do you screw that up?

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Line: Saints -9
O/U: 47
My Pick: Saints -9. New orleans wins 45-20.
Result: Saints 31-13
The Saints are good again...if they can beat the Falcons and win the South, they could get home field throughout, which would certainly help them in the quest to repeat as champs.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Line: 49ers -5.5
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Seahawks +5.5. Seattle wins outright 23-20.
Result: 49ers 40-21
How did the 49ers score 40 points with Alex Smith at QB? I guess Seattle really is that much worse on the road...

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ CHICAGO BEARS
Line: Pats -3
O/U: 41
My Pick: Bears +3. Chicago wins 20-17.
Result: Pats 36-7
My initial reaction to all the talk about this being a close game was to pick the Pats to win it in a landslide...but after seeing the weather forecast, it seemed unlikely that either team would score many points. So much for that idea...

DENVER BRONCOS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS
Line: Broncos -5.5
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Cardinals +5.5. Arizona wins outright 23-17.
Result: Cards 43-13
I was right - Denver's coaching change did not inspire the team like the changes in Dallas and Minnesota did. Still...how did the Cardinals score 43 points? Their offense has been awful!

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ NEW YORK JETS
Line: Jets -5
O/U: 40
My Pick: Jets -5. New York rolls 31-13.
Result: Dolphins 10-6
It's time for some damage control in NYC - The Jets had been a stellar bounce-back team before this game, which is why I never even considered the thought that they'd lose. There are issues in NY, and the Jets better figure them out quick - because the Pats are looking pretty good.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Line: Chargers -7
O/U: 46.5
My Pick: Chargers -7. San Diego wins 26-17.
Result: Chargers 31-0
Kansas City minus Matt Cassel equals Syracuse University? The Chiefs looked like they were in a different class against San Diego, and Brodie Croyle was useless. Get well soon Matt Cassel!

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ DALLAS COWBOYS
Line: Eagles -3.5
O/U: 50.5
My Pick: Eagles -3.5. Philly wins 31-21.
Result: Eagles 30-27
I hate losing to the spread by a half point - and it happened twice this week! Had the Cowboys not scored that late TD, I would have been darn close to an exact pick. Stupid Cowboys...

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ HOUSTON TEXANS
Line: Ravens -3
O/U: 45.5
My Pick: Ravens -3. Baltimore takes out some frustration with a 34-13 romp.
Result: Ravens 34-28 (ot)
Thank you Schaub - Your overtime pick-6 ensured a win when I thought all hope was lost! Had he not thrown that awful pass off his back foot, the Texans may have scored. And if not, the Ravens likely would have gotten only a field goal coming back the other way, and I would have ended up with a push against the spread. Nobody likes ties...

Week Fourteen Preview

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ TENNESSEE TITANS
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 45
Tennessee is a mess right now, and I don't see the Colts dropping to 6-7. Peyton has to lead his team to four straight wins to have a legitimate shot of getting into the playoffs, and if you've ever seen Peyton play, you know he's capable of anything. It's been a rough year, but I expect them to fight and claw til the very end.
My Pick: Colts -3. Indy wins 27-10.

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ BUFFALO BILLS
Line: Bills -1
O/U: 39.5
Both of these teams have been playing solid football. Cleveland beat Miami and New England, and nearly tied the Jets before Holmes broke a tackle to win it late in OT. Buffalo should respond from a poor performance in Minnesota. Despite their strength against the AFC East, I think the Bills will play harder with a bounce-back mentality than the Browns will coming off a big win. It'd also be funny if the Bills were the one team in the AFC East that the Browns couldn't compete with...
My Pick: Bills -1. Buffalo wins 17-10.

ATLANTA FALCONS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS
Line: Falcons -7
O/U: 42.5
Yes, the Falcons had a bit of a hiccup last week against a Tampa team that hasn't really beaten anyone. But Atlanta still pulled it out in the end, which is what matters. They've been quite consistent, and haven't lost to any craptastic teams all season long. I don't expect them to start now.
My Pick: Falcons -7. Atlanta wins 27-13.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ DETROIT LIONS
Line: Packers -6.5
O/U: 46
Don't the oddsmakers remember the last time these teams met? Detroit only lost by two, and that was at Lambeau. The Lions will be ready to play, but can Drew Stanton run the offense if Matt Stafford and Shaun Hill are both out? He certainly has all the tools to succeed...The Packers beat up on the 49ers last week, but I don't think they'll slack off just because they won big - Green Bay remembers how close the Lions came to beating them last time, and the Packers, at 8-4, need wins to ensure a postseason spot. They finish with the Pats, Giants, and Bears, so this game is virtually a must-win.
My Pick: Packers -6.5. Green Bay wins 28-20.

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Line: Jaguars -3.5
O/U: 43
The Raiders have to travel all the way across the country, and they've only won 2 road games all year (and have played awful east of the Mississippi River - @PIT and @TEN) but after beating the Chargers twice, I think they're more legit than the Jags. Then again, I've been under-rating Jacksonville all year, and they keep biting me...
My Pick: Jaguars -3.5. Jacksonville wins 20-10.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Line: Giants -2.5
O/U: 43
The Vikings have a lot of banged up bodies, including Favre. They will come out strong because it's a must-win for them, but I just don't know if they'll be able to get it done. If Brett tries to play, it'll either be a disaster or one of his brilliant "signature" performances. I'd bet on him playing, but he just doesn't seem to have the same magic this season...
My Pick: Giants -2.5. New York wins 23-20.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Line: Steelers -8.5
O/U: 39.5
This seems like one of those games when the Bengals will step up and lose by a lot less than everyone thinks...they've had some issues, but they're really not as bad as their record indicates - they just can't seem to put it all together and win games. Heck, they beat the Ravens earlier in the year! Pittsburgh is too strong, and I'm sure they'll get the win - I just don't know if they'll win by 8 1/2...
My Pick: Steelers -8.5. Pittsburgh wins 27-17.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Line: Bucs -1.5
O/U: 41
Wow...there are a lot of mental issues with this game, making it insanely hard to predict. The Skins have been dealing with a lot of B.S. surrounding Haynesworth, so they may not be completely focused. Their offense has also looked pretty bad since Shanahan and McNabb had their little issue before the bye week. Then again, they're an underdog at home to the Bucs, which might motivate them. The Bucs haven't really beaten anyone good, but thankfully for Tampa fans, Washington doesn't fall into that category...In the end, my analysis rests not on the fact that Tampa hasn't beat anyone solid, but on the fact that they haven't lost to anyone who stinks. And right now, Washington stinks.
My Pick: Bucs -1.5. Tampa wins 23-20.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Line: Saints -9
O/U: 47
The Rams have shown some excellent fight this season, but New Orleans has been playing pretty well as of late. The X-factor is that this is New Orleans' only home game in a 5 week stretch (2 away, 1 home, then 2 away), so I imagine they'd like to show off for their fantastic fans...this one could get ugly in a hurry!
My Pick: Saints -9. New orleans wins 45-20.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Line: 49ers -5.5
O/U: 41.5
Alex Smith is starting at QB for the 49ers...how in the world are they favored by 5.5!? I know Seattle is better at home than on the road, but they've beaten the Bears and Cards away from Qwest field...I certainly think they can take down the 49ers. I'm sure San Fran wants payback for the Seahawks' domination of them in week one, but even a positive mental focus doesn't seem to be helping San Fran in 2010.
My Pick: Seahawks +5.5. Seattle wins outright 23-20.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ CHICAGO BEARS
Line: Pats -3
O/U: 41
The Pats won't look as good against the Bears as they did on Monday Night against the Jets, but that doesn't mean they can't win. The short week of preparation will hurt the Pats' ability to break through a very good defense that is a bit different from the stellar defense they ripped apart last week, and I'm not sure if the Pats will be able to shut down Cutler the same way they shut down Sanchez.
My Pick: Bears +3. Chicago wins 20-17.

DENVER BRONCOS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS
Line: Broncos -5.5
O/U: 42.5
The Cowboys and Vikings have each been better since firing their respective head coaches. I don't think Denver will respond the same way those other teams did. Arizona is awful, but they certainly have the ability to win in their own building. It seems insane to me that Denver is so highly favored in this situation.
My Pick: Cardinals +5.5. Arizona wins outright 23-17.

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ NEW YORK JETS
Line: Jets -5
O/U: 40
Rex Ryan doesn't take embarassment lightly. Even though Miami will be trying to bounce back from a bad home loss to the Browns, the Jets' bounce back ability is second to none. They'll crush the fins.
My Pick: Jets -5. New York rolls 31-13.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Line: Chargers -7
O/U: 46.5
Kansas City is for real, but with Cassel coming back from an appendectomy, I'm not sure what they'll have to offer on offense. I expect San Diego to come out firing after a bad home loss to Oakland, and I don't know that KC can keep up.
My Pick: Chargers -7. San Diego wins 26-17.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ DALLAS COWBOYS
Line: Eagles -3.5
O/U: 50.5
Dallas has gotten better, but Philly looks awfully good. I can't imagine the Cowboys will have an answer for Vick, and Kitna is due to have a bad game.
My Pick: Eagles -3.5. Philly wins 31-21.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ HOUSTON TEXANS
Line: Ravens -3
O/U: 45.5
Had Baltimore beaten the Steelers, I'd have expected Houston to have a chance. Now that this is a bounce-back game for Baltimore, Houston is screwed.
My Pick: Ravens -3. Baltimore takes out some frustration with a 34-13 romp.

Week Thirteen Recap

Week Twelve Picks: 11-5
Week Thirteen ATS: 9-7
Overall Picks: 122-70
Overall ATS: 101-86-5

HOUSTON TEXANS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Line: Eagles -8
O/U: 51
My Pick: Texans +8. Philly wins 38-33.
Result: Eagles 34-24
The Eagles had to score that extra touchdown late...

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
Line: Saints -6.5
O/U: 46
My Pick: Saints -6.5. New Orleans wins 38-17.
Result: Saints 34-30
The Saints didn't play well enough defensively to win this game decisively. I'm sure they'll be better next week - they're a solid bounce-back team.

CHICAGO BEARS @ DETROIT LIONS
Line: Bears -3
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Bears -3. Chicago wins 27-23.
Result: Bears 24-20
I was pretty much dead on with this pick...the Lions are a solid team, but the Bears are legitimately good this year.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
Line: Packers -9
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Packers -9. Green Bay rolls 34-17.
Result: Packers 34-16
It wasn't looking good early, but the Packers turned it on and pulled away from the 49ers. One point from an exact pick...nice!

DENVER BRONCOS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Line: Chiefs -9
O/U: 48.5
My Pick: Broncos +9. Kansas City wins 20-19
Result: Chiefs 10-6
I knew the Chiefs wouldn't blow out Denver, but for the Broncos to score only 6 points against a defense they dismantled the first time around is pretty bad. No wonder McDaniels is gone.

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS
Line: Dolphins -4.5
O/U: 43
My Pick: Dolphins -4.5. Miami wins 30-13.
Result: Browns 13-10
Apparently I forgot how bad the Dolphins offense was...yikes!

BUFFALO BILLS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Line: Vikings -5.5
O/U: 45
My Pick: Bills +5.5. Buffalo loses another close game 17-13.
Result: Vikings 38-14
I picked the Bills to win, so it's no wonder that they were blown out for the first time in over a month...

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ NEW YORK GIANTS
Line: Giants -7
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Redskins +7. Giants win 20-17.
Result: Giants 31-7
Glad to see the Redskins decided to show up...

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ TENNESSEE TITANS
Line: Titans -2
O/U: 41.5
My Pick: Titans -2. Tennessee wins 20-13.
Result: Jaguars 17-6
Hindsight is 20/20 - In hindsight, I'm an idiot. The Jags are playing well, the Titans aren't. But there is a lot of talent in Tennessee - I think I'm still thinking of them as the team that crushed the Giants, and not as the team that can't beat the Jaguars...

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Line: Chargers -12.5
O/U: 45
My Pick: Raiders +12.5. San Diego wins 34-24.
Result: Raiders 28-13
So the AFC West isn't cut-and-dry after all...Go Chiefs!

ATLANTA FALCONS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Line: Falcons -3
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Falcons -3. Atlanta wins 27-17.
Result: Falcons 28-24
I'm glad this spread wasn't bigger...Tampa really gave the Falcons a game! Coaching has made all the difference in KC and Tampa this year - these teams stunk last year, but now, with a little confidence, they're both quite dangerous. The Chiefs moreso than the Bucs, as Tampa really doesn't have any quality wins.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS
Line: Rams -3.5
O/U: 43
My Pick: Cards +3.5. Arizona wins outright 23-20.
Result: Rams 19-6
Glad I continue to have no faith in the Rams...

DALLAS COWBOYS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Line: Colts -5.5
O/U: 47.5
My Pick: Cowboys +5.5. Indy wins 30-28.
Result: Cowboys 38-35 (ot)
Dallas is a LOT better under Garrett. And Indy is really struggling...they might miss the playoffs!

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Line: Seahawks -6
O/U: 40
My Pick: Seahawks -6. Seattle rolls the Panthers 33-13.
Result: Seahawks 31-14
Again, dead on. Seattle is predictable at home against crappy teams...somehow they manage to make themselves look decent.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
Line: Ravens -3
O/U: 40
My Pick: Steelers +3. Pittsburgh wins 17-13.
Result: Steelers 13-10
Called it. Big Ben doesn't lose to the Ravens.

NEW YORK JETS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Line: Pats -3
O/U: 45.5
My Pick: Pats -3. New England wins 24-20.
Result: Pats 45-3
I don't think anyone called the score, but the Pats' victory doesn't surprise me. Belichick is a genius when he has extra time to game plan, Brady doesn't lose at home, and the two together never get swept in a season. It was the perfect storm - they were bound to win.

Week Thirteen Preview

HOUSTON TEXANS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Line: Eagles -8

O/U: 51

I'm not sure how to call this game...on one hand, Houston is the type of team I expect to hover around .500 all season long, and at 5-6, a loss makes them much less likely to hit 8-8 by the end of the season. On the other hand, they've been horribly inconsistent and have showed very little defensively, which doesn't bode well for a team that's about to face Michael Vick. Especially after the Eagles' loss to the Bears last week. The Eagles' D wasn't great against the Bears, and although I expect them to step up against the Texans, Houston is dangerous enough to turn this game into a shootut. Philly may win by a lot, but I think the odds are in favor of it being a bit closer.

My Pick: Texans +8. Philly wins 38-33.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

Line: Saints -6.5

O/U: 46

Cincy plays well against certain teams (i.e. the Ravens...), but I don't think New Orleans is the type of team they'll be able to keep it close against. Bush is back, and I expect him to see quite a few more touches this week. The Saints looked dominant at times (seemingly whenever they needed to...) on Thanksgiving, and I think they have the ability to dominate on a more consistent basis. They just need to remain focused on the task at hand. Hopefully they'll be focused this week.

My Pick: Saints -6.5. New Orleans wins 38-17.

CHICAGO BEARS @ DETROIT LIONS

Line: Bears -3

O/U: 44.5

The Lions owe the Bears a little payback after apparent victory slipped through their fingers in week one. The Bears have become a very solid team, however, and I'm not sure if the Lions, at least without Stafford, will be able to keep up offensively.

My Pick: Bears -3. Chicago wins 27-23.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS

Line: Packers -9

O/U: 41.5

The 49ers played well against the NFC North last season, which is why this isn't an open-and-shut pick for me. San Fran has been downright awful this season, though...after being blown out by the Bucs, I'm not sure why I'd expect them to hang around with a very good Packers squad. Note: If I'm wrong on this one, it's because I followed by brain and not my gut...

My Pick: Packers -9. Green Bay rolls 34-17.

DENVER BRONCOS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Line: Chiefs -9

O/U: 48.5

Kansas City got CRUSHED a few weeks ago at Denver...why the sudden change? Denver has some issues to deal with, especially the off-the-field discussions about their head coach's future with the team, but after such a solid effort against the Chiefs at home, I don't see a KC blowout. Then again, it is the AFC west...weird things tend to happen in home-and-home series in that division...

My Pick: Broncos +9. Kansas City wins 20-19

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

Line: Dolphins -4.5

O/U: 43

Miami stinks at home and Cleveland has been playing pretty solid football lately, especially against the AFC East. Despite the possibility of a Browns win, I'm going with the Dolphins for 2 reasons: 1. They don't want to be left out of the AFC East discussion; 2. It's time for a DelHomme game! Every season I pick a game where I think DelHomme will get careless and throw 4 picks...this is the one!

My Pick: Dolphins -4.5. Miami wins 30-13.

BUFFALO BILLS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Line: Vikings -5.5

O/U: 45

Nobody...circles the Wagons...Like the Buffalo Bills! B-Lo has been playing great football lately. They're one of the best 2-9 teams I've ever seen. Minnesota is going to have their hands full, especially given how much they've struggled lately. AP is a last-minute decision, which means that even if he does play, he'll be banged up. Jairus Bird has 0 INTs this season, after showing some excellent ball-hawk skills last year. If Favre gets careless (which he usually does at least a few times each game...), the Bills will make him pay. Never bet against the team with more "fight" in them...

My Pick: Bills +5.5. Buffalo loses another close game 17-13.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ NEW YORK GIANTS

Line: Giants -7

O/U: 43.5

There are a lot of question marks going into this game...with NY's top two receivers out, will they be forced to run Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw too much? Can the Skins key on the run and stop the G-men? Their run defense hasn't exactly been stellar. Odds are that this will be a typical NFC East slugfest...not a Giants blowout.

My Pick: Redskins +7. Giants win 20-17.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ TENNESSEE TITANS

Line: Titans -2

O/U: 41.5

Tennessee was awful with that Rusty guy playing QB...thankfully Collins is back, and they're playing a divisional rival - which means they'll be ready to play. Jacksonville has shown some fight this season, but I still don't think they're as good as their record indicates. The Jags only managed 3 points against Tennessee the first time around...The Titans' D hasn't had any issues...Still the same bunch...that doesn't bode well for the Jags.

My Pick: Titans -2. Tennessee wins 20-13.

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Line: Chargers -12.5

O/U: 45

The Chargers are likely looking for payback after losing to the Raiders in Oakland earlier in the year. Oakland has had a history of being blown out in San Diego, but this year's team seems a bit different...they tend to play well against their best opposition. They also scored 35 on the Bolts in round one, and I'd expect them to be able to put up a decent total once again. Which means the odds favor a closer-than-2-touchdowns game.

My Pick: Raiders +12.5. San Diego wins 34-24.

ATLANTA FALCONS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Line: Falcons -3

O/U: 44.5

The Falcons have been very consistent all year long, losing only to their toughest opposition. Tampa is not included in that demographic.

My Pick: Falcons -3. Atlanta wins 27-17.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

Line: Rams -3.5

O/U: 43

After being embarassed on Monday Night, I expect the Cards to show a little fight against the Rams. St. Louis has been pretty solid, but they're still not good enough to be a sure thing on the road in the desert.

My Pick: Cards +3.5. Arizona wins outright 23-20.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Line: Colts -5.5

O/U: 47.5

At this point in the season, I have to take both of these teams for what they truly are. In the pre-season, this could have been seen as a potential Super Bowl preview. Now it's a battle between two teams that may not even be in the playoffs. Dallas kept it close against a solid Saints team, and I think they're playing well enough to stay in the game against Indy as well.

My Pick: Cowboys +5.5. Indy wins 30-28.

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Line: Seahawks -6

O/U: 40

Seattle has been good at home, and Carolina is having trouble with just about everything. Seattle has dropped 2 straight, and is hungry for a win - expect them to get it.

My Pick: Seahawks -6. Seattle rolls the Panthers 33-13.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

Line: Ravens -3

O/U: 40

It's always a dogfight when these two teams come together. Both defenses will put on a show. My issue is with Roethlisberger...he's banged up, so my first thought is that he won't be as effective as he usually is. But I am also aware that the Steelers are 5-0 against the Ravens with Ben since '07 and 0-3 without him...those numbers make me want to side with the Steelers. Keep in mind that the Steelers lost to the Ravens earlier in the year as well...Pittsburgh is not and easy team to sweep...

My Pick: Steelers +3. Pittsburgh wins 17-13.

NEW YORK JETS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Line: Pats -3

O/U: 45.5

The Jets won round one and haven't swept the Pats in 10 years. They've also been playing a lot of tight games lately, save for the one against Cincy on Thanksgiving. New England is strong, but are they strong enough to win the division? The team that wins this game has a projected 80% chance of winning the AFC East. The Jets seem to find a way to get wins every week, and though they've played some close games against questionable teams, the Pats LOST to the Browns. Yes New England, I am going to hold that against you for the rest of the season. In the end, the one thing that most influences my decision is the Pats' ability to shut down the Jets offense in the first half of game one. Belichick will know exactly what they did to stop Sanchez, and will employ that strategy throughout the game on Monday Night. I expect Sanchez to have a very mediocre game.

My Pick: Pats -3. New England wins 24-20.