Week Sixteen Preview

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Line: Steelers -14.5
O/U: 37
There is a low of 22 in Pittsburgh tonight with a chance of flurries...if it gets snowy and slick, both teams will rely heavily on the run game. Then again, they'll both rely heavily on the run game anyway - Carolina because they have no QB, and Pittsburgh because smash-mouth football is in their nature. I'm just not sure that Pittsburgh will crush Carolina by enough points to cover, given the conditions under which they'll be playing. The problem? The last time I picked against the Steelers as a 2-touchdown favorite in cold weather for the exact same reasons, I got burned.
Playoff Implications: PIT has already clinched a playoff berth. If PIT wins and BAL loses, PIT wins AFC North. They may also clinch a bye - KC could win out to tie PIT at 11-5 (w PIT loss at CLE in week 17), but the tiebreaker with the Steelers would end up going to strength of victory, and I'm not about to figure that one out...I assume, however, that the Steelers' wins over the Falcons and Ravens would be good enough to win them the tiebreaker. So assume they clinch a bye with a win and a Ravens loss. Basically, the Steelers play the Panthers and Browns the final two weeks, so pencil them in as AFC North champs and the 2-seed.
My Pick: Panthers +14.5. Pittsburgh wins 27-13.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS
Line: Cowboys -7
O/U: 45.5
I'm starting to worry that the Cowboys might pack it in, given the futility of these last few games and how little effort they expended early in the year. But the Cardinals are REALLY bad...and I honestly think most of the Cowboys are deathly afraid of Jason Garrett...it's the only explanation for their sudden burst of energy.
Playoff Implications: None
My Pick: Cowboys -7. Dallas wins 30-20.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ BUFFALO BILLS
Line: Pats -7.5
O/U: 44
I don't care how well the Bills are playing - The Pats have "had their number" for years...
Playoff Implications: New England has already clinched a playoff berth. With a win, they win the AFC East and clinch the #1-seed. If they lose, NYJ, PIT, or BAL would have to win out to tie NE, and the Pats would lose the #1 seed and the division to the Jets based on their record within the division. It seems unlikely, though...
My Pick: Pats -7.5. New England rolls 34-13.

NEW YORK JETS @ CHICAGO BEARS
Line: Bears -1
O/U: 36.5
The Jets have played well on the road and have proven that they can win close games. I expect this to be a low-scoring defensive battle, but if the scoring gets out of control, the Jets could be in trouble.
Playoff Implications: NYJ clinch a playoff berth with a win. They can win out and have a shot at the AFC East Title and a #1-seed, but the Pats would have to lose out. CHI has already clinched their division, and are fighting with ATL/NO, and PHI for seeding. A win and a Philly loss guarantees CHI a first round bye, as they hold the tiebreaker over the Eagles (Head-to-Head Win).
My Pick: Jets +1. New York wins 13-10.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
Line: Ravens -3
O/U: 39.5
Cleveland tends to play hard against the Ravens (there is a lot of history there...), but with the Ravens still battling for the NFC North crown and a first-round bye, I think they'll flush the Browns pretty easily.
Playoff Implications: BAL clinches a playoff berth with a win. A win and a PIT loss puts them on top of the division and allows them to control their own destiny. Losses by JAX AND SD would also clinch a playoff spot for BAL.
My Pick: Ravens -3. Baltimore wins 33-13.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Line: Jaguars -7
O/U: 46
The Redskins are a mess right now. I don't care how many touchdown passes Rex Grossman had against the Cowboys - it was clearly an anomaly. Jacksonville's Pass D isn't great, but Washington's is worse. Then again, Washington beat the Titans by 3 and lost to the Colts and Texans by 3 each, so a spread of seven against the Skins' final AFC South opponent seems high.
Playoff Implications: A Jacksonville loss and an Indy win eliminates the Jags from playoff contention and gives the division to the Colts. A win and a Colts loss clinches nothing, but allows JAX to control its own destiny in week 17.
My Pick: Redskins +7. Jacksonville wins 27-24.

TENNESSEE TITANS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Line: Chiefs -4.5
O/U: 42.5
The Chiefs could (and should...) win the AFC West. They've been playing solid football, and even the Matt Cassel appendectomy barely slowed them down. Tennessee doesn't have the run defense to stop KC's attack, and despite a good performance last week, I don't think the Titans offense offers enough consistency to beat the Chiefs on the road. That said, I have a strange gut feeling on this one that I'm going to have to go with...
Playoff Implications: KC clinches the AFC West with a win and a SD loss. SD holds the tiebreaker over KC, so KC has to win out or hope for at least 1 SD loss to win the division.
My Pick: Titans +4.5. Tennessee wins outright 17-13.

DETROIT LIONS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS
Line: Dolphins -3.5
O/U: 41.5
The Bills eliminated the Fins from the playoffs last week (haha), the Fins don't play well at home, and the Lions have beaten the spread quite a few times this year despite not having a lot to show for it at 3-11. All signs point to upset.
Playoff Implications: None
My Pick: Lions +3.5. Detroit wins outright 20-14.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS
Line: Rams -2.5
O/U: 39.5
Could the 49ers really start 1-6 and still win their division? Geez...what an awful year for the NFC West. If San Fran wins, they are tied for the division lead (assuming Seattle loses to Tampa, which is likely), and they hold the tiebreaker. So I imagine they'll be playing pretty hard. St. Louis has been solid at times, but I still think of San Fran as the underachieving team that everyone picked to win the division in the first place. So why not overcome a 1-6 start to win it anyway?
Playoff Implications: SF is eliminated with a loss. SF leads the west with a win and a Seattle loss, as they'd hold tiebreakers over STL and SEA. SEA plays STL in week 17, so unless SF wins this week and next, that game will determine who goes to the playoffs from the West.
My Pick: 49ers +2.5. San Fran wins 26-17.

HOUSTON TEXANS @ DENVER BRONCOS
Line: Texans -3
O/U: 48.5
Neither one of these teams in in great shape...I guess I have to take the Texans, simply because they have the potential to do some big things on offense.
Playoff Implications: None
My Pick: Texans -3. Houston wins 24-10.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS
Line: Colts -3
O/U: 47
Really? Just 3? Indy is in position to win the AFC South, despite extensive injuries and some bad losses. I can't imagine they'll blow this one. The Raiders have beaten some good teams, but I don't think they'll be surprising the Colts.
Playoff Implications: If OAK wins out AND KC loses out AND SD loses at least once, OAK wins the AFC West. A loss eliminates OAK from playoff contention. IND wins the AFC South with a win and a JAX loss. An IND loss eliminates them from wild card contention, but they could still win the division depending on what JAX does this week and next.
My Pick: Colts -3. Indy wins 30-20.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
Line: Chargers -7
O/U: 44
No T.O. means no way. He has been their only bright spot all year long. They have too many issues to pull off a big upset against a Chargers team that still needs wins to get in the playoffs.
Playoff Implications: SD is eliminated from playoff contention if KC wins and SD loses. If both win or SD wins and KC loses, the division title will be decided in week 17, with SD holding the tiebreaker should both teams finish with identical records. If both KC AND SD lose this week, the Raiders would win the division with a victory over KC next week. Otherwise the division title would depend on what SD does in week 17.
My Pick: Chargers -7. San Diego wins 23-13.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Line: Bucs -5.5
O/U: 43.5
The Seahawks are bad on the road and the Bucs are coming off of their first bad loss of the year. They'll be amped up, and will take down the Hawks.
Playoff Implications: A TB loss and a NYG win would eliminate the Bucs. A NO win guarantees that TB is playing for the 6-seed, and fighting NYG and GB. Otherwise TB's playoff life is in the hands of distant tiebreakers, such as strength of victory. I don't think they'd beat GB or NYG on that stat, so the likely scenario for a TB playoff berth is that they'll need to win out and hope that GB beats NYG this week and that both teams lose in week 17. SEA is in a mess in the NFC West - See the STL game above for further explanation.
My Pick: Bucs -5.5. Tampa wins 26-14.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
Line: Packers -2.5
O/U: 43
This'll be a great game! Both teams are basically done with a loss, so neither can leave anything in the bag. It'd be a bigger surprise to see the Packers miss the playoffs, but the Giants have played some big games, too. After the way they lost to the Eagles last week, they'll either be extra juiced up for this game, or they'll still be down on themselves. With Rodgers back, I'm not sure it matters either way. And the Packers D has been stellar all year.
Playoff Implications: NYG are in with a win. GB is eliminated with a loss. A GB win leaves both tied at 9-6, and depending on what TB does, they could be in that mix, too. The Giants are still alive for the NFC East crown, but they'd need to win out and watch PHI lose out. So if things go according to my predictions (GB wins, TB wins...) the wild card race will be very messy, and it will all come down to week 17, and possibly some goofy tiebreaking scenarios.
My Pick: Packers -2.5. Green Bay wins 30-23.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Line: Eagles -15.5
O/U: 43
This would have been one heck of a week 16 game if Minnesota had lived up to their potential. Too bad it won't be...The Vikings likely won't have Favre, and Peterson is banged up as well. The Minnesota defense has proven time and again that it can't keep the Vikings in games without help from the offense. They won't get any, and Vick won't have any mercy as he tries to get his team a first round bye.
Playoff Implications: PHI clinches the NFC East with a win. They can't clinch a bye yet due to their tie with CHI and the fact that CHI holds the tiebreaker over them. A PHI loss and a CHI win eliminates PHI from the bye discussion. A PHI loss also allows NYG to have a shot at the division if they win out and PHI loses again in week 17.
My Pick: Eagles -15.5. Philly rolls 34-10.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
Line: Falcons -2.5
O/U: 48.5
This should be the best game of the week! Both teams are used to playing in domes, and I don't expect either to come out and dominate the other. It should be back-and-forth. Atlanta won in New Orleans earlier in the year - I think New Orleans will use that knowledge to fuel their effort on Monday night. The Saints will also be amped up after a loss to Baltimore last week. This division is too good not to go down to the final weekend!
Playoff Implications: ATL wins the division and the #1-seed with a win. ATL has already clinched a playoff berth. NO has to win out and watch ATL lose out to win the division. NO clinches a playoff berth with a win.
My Pick: Saints +2.5. New Orleans wins 31-30.