Championship Weekend Recap

Championship Weekend Picks: 2-0
Championship Weekend ATS: 0-2
Overall Picks: 170-96
Overall ATS: 142-119-5

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ CHICAGO BEARS
Line: Packers -3.5
O/U: 43.5
My Pick: Bears +3.5. Packers win 23-21.
Result: Packers 21-14
This one wasn't as entertaining as I thought it would be. As a result, it was a wider margin of victory than I expected. And yes, I think Cutler is a wuss.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

NEW YORK JETS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Line: Steelers -3.5
O/U: 38.5
My Pick: Jets +3.5. Steelers win 27-24.
Result: Steelers 24-19
The Steelers' defensive TD late in the first half really doomed the Jets, but I think it was their early lack of committment to the run game that ultimately caused their season to end. They're a run-first, defensive team with a second-year quarterback...there is no reason for them to throw the ball so much. Once they get behind, I understand that the game plan changes. But when they were still in the game, I'm not sure why they didn't try to run more.

Championship Weekend Preview

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ CHICAGO BEARS
Line: Packers -3.5
O/U: 43.5
This'll be an outstanding game. The Packers have been playing very well, but the Bears always seem to know how to shut down Green Bay's offense. The two games they've played against one another so far this year have been intense and very close. I don't think I'd give either team 3 1/2 points!
My Pick: Bears +3.5. Packers win 23-21.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

NEW YORK JETS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Line: Steelers -3.5
O/U: 38.5
This game amounts to the same situation as the NFC Championship game...I'm not sure I can pick either team to win by 3 1/2! I want to pick the Jets for three reasons: because they are playing fantastic defense, they want to win for their coach (who has lost in a league title game 2 straight years), and they're a great road team. Instead, however, I have to take the Steelers - The Jets seemed a little too excited about last week's win, and we often see teams put forth less-than-stellar efforts after a big, emotional win. In a sense, the Jets already had their Super Bowl...
My Pick: Jets +3.5. Steelers win 27-24.

Divisional Weekend Recap

Divisional Picks: 2-2

Divisional ATS: 2-2

Overall Picks: 168-96

Overall ATS: 142-117-5

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Line: Steelers -3
O/U: 37
My Pick: Ravens +3. Baltimore wins 17-13.
Result: Steelers 31-24
My gut said to take the Steelers, but I like the Ravens...Oh well. I thought Ray Lewis would be more of a factor, but he was nearly invisible.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Line: Falcons -2.5

O/U: 43.5

My Pick: Falcons -2.5. Atlanta wins 20-17 (again).

Result: Packers 48-21

Again, my gut said to take the Packers...why don't I listen to my gut when it comes to Saturday games? Quite the disappointment for Atlanta, but Green Bay is playing awfully well right now...

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ CHICAGO BEARS

Line: Bears -10

O/U: 41

My Pick: Bears -10. Chicago wins 17-3.

Result: Bears 35-24

I'm surprised the Bears' D weakened late and allowed the Seahawks to score 24 points. Thankfully they still fell short of the spread, finished 2 games under .500, and lost 10 games by no less than 11 points. Why am I thankful for this? Because even after they knocked out the defending champs (who REFUSED to play defense in that game...), I still don't think they deserved a playoff berth. The aforementioned stats prove my point.

NEW YORK JETS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Line: Pats -8.5

O/U: 44.5

My Pick: Jets +8.5. New York wins outright 20-19.

Result: Jets 28-21

I wasn't all that sure about this pick, but for some reason I like the "fight" the Jets have in them. I'm not thrilled about their desire to "rub it in" after they won, but I do understand their pregame frustration and the fact that they thought Brady rubbed it in after the Pats dismantled them in early December. Brady wasn't running around the field with his arms stretched out like a 5-year-old playing "airplane", however. Real mature, Jets. Real mature. Not sure why I would have expected anything different...

Divisional Weekend Preview

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Line: Steelers -3

O/U: 37

Before the season began, Baltimore was many analysts' pick to win the AFC. Pittsburgh wasn't necessarily a pick to win it all, but many experts suggested that they had the talent and experience to potentially get there. Advantage, Ravens. I'm a little worried that the extra week of rest will help the Steelers immensely given the physical nature that this game will almost certainly take on. Advantage, Steelers. I also realize that the Steelers tend to beat the Ravens when Big Ben plays, and they tend to lose when he doesn't. Again, advantage, Steelers. I'm also aware that each team won on the other's field this season. Advantage, Ravens. The only prediction I can make with any certainty is that this game will go down to the wire and be one of the best, most hard-fought games you'll have seen all year. Since my "advantages" ended up 2-2, I have to try to throw one out. Preseason picks can't be touched; they mean very little, but I can't find any reason to discount them. Rest will have an effect, and there is no way I could think otherwise. Baltimore is the road team, and that can't magically change. That leaves Big Ben's impact. I predict Big Ben will get injured, and the Steelers will fall. It's the only way I can break the tie!

My Pick: Ravens +3. Baltimore wins 17-13.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Line: Falcons -2.5

O/U: 43.5

The Falcons already won this matchup once this season, but I think Green Bay is better now than they were at that time. That said, I imagine Michael Turner will be able to run against Green Bay and open up a few throwing lanes for Ryan, but I'm not sure how much of a rushing effort the Packers will be able to sustain. James Starks had a big game last week, but he's young and I just can't bring myself to trust a rookie RB out of UB (Buffalo) to be a major difference maker in the NFL playoffs after having been nonexistent in the regular season. I expect a defensive battle, and the Packers certainly could come out on top. But the Falcons are very strong at home...

My Pick: Falcons -2.5. Atlanta wins 20-17 (again).

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ CHICAGO BEARS

Line: Bears -10

O/U: 41

Seattle has earned my respect - but they still haven't lost a game by fewer than 11 points this season. So again, if I think they'll lose, I have to pick them to lose against the spread. The Bears have been solid, and I expect their defense to "show up", unlike that of the Saints. I'm not sure what Jay Cutler will have to offer in the postseason, especially after a two week hiatus, but I'm not sure it matters as long as that Chicago defense plays to its potential.

My Pick: Bears -10. Chicago wins 17-3.

NEW YORK JETS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Line: Pats -8.5

O/U: 44.5

Oh me of little faith...how dare I pick against the Jets in the wildcard round? It was all about Rex Ryan's history against Manning. Now that he's proven the trend wrong, it's time for him to live up to another trend...Belichick has only lost to two teams all year - Rex Ryan and the Jets and Rob Ryan and the Browns. The Browns game proves that the Pats are capable of falling flat on their faces, but I don't think that'll happen at home in the postseason. There is NO WAY this will be a 42-point debacle again. The Jets will almost certainly keep it close. The Pats haven't lost to the same team twice in one season since 2000 (pre-Brady) - and it was the Jets who beat them twice. It's been a good decade, but Karma says it's time for the streak to end!

My Pick: Jets +8.5. New York wins outright 20-19.

Wildcard Weekend Recap

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Line: Saints -10.5
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Saints -10.5. New Orleans wins 31-10.
Result: Seahawks 41-36
No one would have expected the Saints' defense to allow the lowly Seahawks to score more than 30 points...let alone 41! Anybody who picked the Seahawks to win outright is either a masochist or a Seahawks fan; though those two distinctions may be one and the same. I was honestly going to pick the Seahawks to beat the spread until I realized that they hadn't lost a game by less than 11 all season long. Since I never considered them to win (not a masochist...), that left me with only one choice. I'm not that upset about this pick...I don't see how I could have picked Seattle to pull off one of the biggest upsets in playoff history.

NEW YORK JETS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Line: Colts -2.5

O/U: 44.5

My Pick: Colts -2.5. Indy wins 24-21.

Result: Jets 17-16

Oh ye of little faith...I wish I had the gumption to pick the Jets in the face of all the stats that suggested Rex Ryan would again be unable to stop Peyton Manning. The Jets defense played very well and Sanchez did just enough, getting the team into field goal position late so that Folk could hit the game winner. My lack of faith will likely continue in the divisional round; I see no way that the Jets can oust the Patriots.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Line: Ravens -3

O/U: 40.5

My Pick: Ravens -3. Baltimore wins 20-10.

Result: Ravens 30-7

This was a good game until halftime, but the adjustments Harbaugh made at the break propelled the Ravens to a big second half and a lopsided victory. The Ravens are very, very good on the road in the playoffs. The Steelers are very, very good period. This is going to be a fun week...

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Line: Eagles -2.5

O/U: 46

My Pick: Packers +2.5. Green Bay wins 34-31.

Result: Packers 21-16

The Eagles just couldn't muster enough offense against a very fast, strong Packers' defense. Green Bay is a team NO ONE wants to play right now; they're really clicking in all facets of the game. We won't get a chance to see Vick return to Atlanta in an NFC Championship game, but we could see Packers @ Bears in the NFC Championship. Between the rivalry implications and the fact that the Packers made the playoffs on the back of a win over Chicago in week 17, that would end up being yet another great game. This year's playoff matchups have been outstanding!

Wildcard Weekend Preview

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Line: Saints -10.5
O/U: 44.5
The Seahawks are being completely written off despite enjoying one of the league's best home-field advantages. New Orleans recently lost Pierre Thomas for the rest of the year, but still has Reggie Bush and Julius Jones, which is a pretty solid duo. I was strongly considering picking Seattle to cover the spread (I would NEVER pick them to win...), but after looking at their full schedule, they've only played 3 "close" games (meaning within the 10 1/2 point spread of their game against NO), and all three of those games were wins. So if I expect them to lose, I ought to expect them to do so in blowout fashion.
My Pick: Saints -10.5. New Orleans wins 31-10.

NEW YORK JETS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Line: Colts -2.5

O/U: 44.5

Peyton is phenomenal in playoff games, but the Colts are "down" this year. Despite entering the playoffs on a hot streak, winning their last four, I'm still not sold. Those final four games were all close, and the Titans basically "let" them win. The Jets are hard-nosed and have a ton of confidence. That said, I can't pick against the Colts simply because Rex and Rob Ryan are awful against Peyton in games that matter, and because Peyton loves it when teams blitz him. The odds point toward the Colts ripping apart the Jets' pass D.

My Pick: Colts -2.5. Indy wins 24-21.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Line: Ravens -3

O/U: 40.5

I hate to pick all of the favorites, but it seems to be moving in that direction! Kansas City has solid playoff experience, but it's all in their COACHING ranks...the players who are actually on the field haven't had that experience. Baltimore is battle-tested and playoff-tested, and I don't see KC tearing their run defense apart. Consider also that the Chiefs' run D may only be #1 in the country because they've played 37% (6 of 16) of their games against the league's 4 WORST run defenses!

My Pick: Ravens -3. Baltimore wins 20-10.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Line: Eagles -2.5

O/U: 46

I'd rather not pick against Vick, mostly because I'm enjoying his play thus far, but Green Bay is hot right now, and their defense is fast enough to contain the speedy QB. Aaron Rodgers is very good, his receivers are some of the best in the league, and I'm not 100% sold on the Eagles' defense. In the end, I think it's the Packers who will move on. They didn't have a great regular season, but they were one of the preseason favorites to win the Super Bowl, so we certainly can't write them off. If I had to pick ONE game to watch this week, it'd be this one.

My Pick: Packers +2.5. Green Bay wins 34-31.

Week Seventeen Recap

Week Seventeen Picks: 11-5

Week Seventeen ATS: 9-7

Overall Picks: 164-92

Overall ATS: 138-113-5

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Line: Falcons -14.5

O/U: 41

My Pick: Falcons -14.5. Atlanta rolls 34-3.

Result: Falcons 31-10

Close enough. The Falcons don't lose to bad teams. We'll see how they do in the playoffs, when they have to play good opponents every week. I feel like Atlanta might be one of those teams that is phenomenal in the regular season and gets upset in the first round of the playoffs...

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

Line: Ravens -9.5

O/U: 43

My Pick: Bengals +9.5. Baltimore wins 23-20.

Result: Ravens 13-7

The Bengals just know how to shut down the Ravens. Baltimore heads into KC for the wildcard round, and I think they'll be able to win with relative ease. Baltimore is very strong against the run, and I don't see Cassel beating the Ravens through the air.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

Line: Steelers -5.5

O/U: 37.5

My Pick: Steelers -5.5. Pittsburgh wins 24-10.

Result: Steelers 41-9

At least the Steelers aren't limping into the playoffs...

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ DETROIT LIONS

Line: Lions -3

O/U: 42

My Pick: Vikings +3. Minny wins 23-13.

Result: Lions 20-13

I thought Favre would end up playing. My Bad...

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Line: Chiefs -3.5

O/U: 43.5

My Pick: Raiders +3.5. Oakland wins 24-20.

Result: Raiders 31-10

HAHAHAHA! Oakland went 6-0 in the AFC West and still missed the playoffs! They're the first team in NFL history to pull off that "feat".

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Line: Pats -3.5

O/U: 43

My Pick: Dolphins +3.5. New England still wins 20-17.

Result: Pats 38-7

I didn't realize Belichick was going to play Brady and all of his starters for nearly the whole game...too bad Brady didn't get hurt, just to teach Belichick a lesson...

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Line: Saints -8

O/U: 46.5

My Pick: Bucs +8. New Orleans wins 27-23.

Result: Bucs 23-13

Good to see that the Bucs waited until week 17 to get a marquee win! The Saints are limping into the playoffs again, but it worked out OK for them last season...

BUFFALO BILLS @ NEW YORK JETS

Line: 0

O/U: 39.5

My Pick: Jets win 17-13.

Result: Jets 38-7

Not a great way for the Bills to end the season. The Jets' backups look promising!

CHICAGO BEARS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS

Line: Packers -10

O/U: 41.5

My Pick: Bears +10. Packers win 17-14.

Result: Packers 10-3

When the Bears played the Jets, a defensive battle did not ensue. In week 17, two of the league's best defenses proved to be exactly that. Despite a mild allegiance to the Eagles, I hope the Packers win and drive all the way to the NFC Championship for a date with the Bears...

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

Line: Jags -2.5

O/U: 49.5

My Pick: Jags -2.5. Jacksonville wins 28-21.

Result: Texans 34-17

Wow. Talk about blowing your chance at a playoff berth. The Jags wouldn't have gotten in anyway, but who knows what a win would have done to the psyche of the Colts, who were locked in a battle with the Titans and were watching the scoreboard to find out what was happening with the Jags.

TENNESSEE TITANS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Line: Colts -10

O/U: 48

My Pick: Colts -10. Indy rolls 33-10.

Result: Colts 23-20

Awful. Indy should have rolled into the postseason. This is not the same Indy team that defeated the Jets in last year's playoffs, and I don't think they have what it takes to beat New York again...

DALLAS COWBOYS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Line: Eagles -3

O/U: N/A

My Pick: Cowboys win 20-10.

Result: Cowboys 14-13

You had to figure this would happen...the Eagles are only good when they're fired up...and they had nothing to be fired up about in week 17.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Line: Giants -4

O/U: 44.5

My Pick: Giants -4. New York wins 37-14.

Result: Giants 17-14

I hate late touchdowns...The Giants didn't deserve a playoff berth if they couldn't even break 20 against a crappy Redskins defense. Better luck next year.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ DENVER BRONCOS

Line: Chargers -3

O/U: 47

My Pick: Broncos +3. Denver wins 23-20.

Result: Chargers 33-28

San Diego tried to let the Broncos come all the way back, but Denver fell just short. I didn't realize the Chargers would be trying, which is why I picked the Broncos. I guess San Diego had some pride after all...

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Line: 49ers -6

O/U: 38.5

My Pick: Cards +6. Arizona wins 20-10.

Result: 49ers 38-7

Wow...I didn't think the 49ers would be energized after the firing of Mike Singletary. I guess that was far from the case...then again, the Cards are REALLY bad.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Line: Rams -3

O/U: 41.5

My Pick: Seahawks +3. Seattle wins the West 20-17.

Result: Seahawks 16-6

Hahaha! A playoff team below .500? Awful, yet somehow glorious.