BALTIMORE RAVENS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Line: Steelers -3
O/U: 37
Before the season began, Baltimore was many analysts' pick to win the AFC. Pittsburgh wasn't necessarily a pick to win it all, but many experts suggested that they had the talent and experience to potentially get there. Advantage, Ravens. I'm a little worried that the extra week of rest will help the Steelers immensely given the physical nature that this game will almost certainly take on. Advantage, Steelers. I also realize that the Steelers tend to beat the Ravens when Big Ben plays, and they tend to lose when he doesn't. Again, advantage, Steelers. I'm also aware that each team won on the other's field this season. Advantage, Ravens. The only prediction I can make with any certainty is that this game will go down to the wire and be one of the best, most hard-fought games you'll have seen all year. Since my "advantages" ended up 2-2, I have to try to throw one out. Preseason picks can't be touched; they mean very little, but I can't find any reason to discount them. Rest will have an effect, and there is no way I could think otherwise. Baltimore is the road team, and that can't magically change. That leaves Big Ben's impact. I predict Big Ben will get injured, and the Steelers will fall. It's the only way I can break the tie!
My Pick: Ravens +3. Baltimore wins 17-13.
GREEN BAY PACKERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
Line: Falcons -2.5
O/U: 43.5
The Falcons already won this matchup once this season, but I think Green Bay is better now than they were at that time. That said, I imagine Michael Turner will be able to run against Green Bay and open up a few throwing lanes for Ryan, but I'm not sure how much of a rushing effort the Packers will be able to sustain. James Starks had a big game last week, but he's young and I just can't bring myself to trust a rookie RB out of UB (Buffalo) to be a major difference maker in the NFL playoffs after having been nonexistent in the regular season. I expect a defensive battle, and the Packers certainly could come out on top. But the Falcons are very strong at home...
My Pick: Falcons -2.5. Atlanta wins 20-17 (again).
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ CHICAGO BEARS
Line: Bears -10
O/U: 41
Seattle has earned my respect - but they still haven't lost a game by fewer than 11 points this season. So again, if I think they'll lose, I have to pick them to lose against the spread. The Bears have been solid, and I expect their defense to "show up", unlike that of the Saints. I'm not sure what Jay Cutler will have to offer in the postseason, especially after a two week hiatus, but I'm not sure it matters as long as that Chicago defense plays to its potential.
My Pick: Bears -10. Chicago wins 17-3.
NEW YORK JETS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Line: Pats -8.5
O/U: 44.5
Oh me of little faith...how dare I pick against the Jets in the wildcard round? It was all about Rex Ryan's history against Manning. Now that he's proven the trend wrong, it's time for him to live up to another trend...Belichick has only lost to two teams all year - Rex Ryan and the Jets and Rob Ryan and the Browns. The Browns game proves that the Pats are capable of falling flat on their faces, but I don't think that'll happen at home in the postseason. There is NO WAY this will be a 42-point debacle again. The Jets will almost certainly keep it close. The Pats haven't lost to the same team twice in one season since 2000 (pre-Brady) - and it was the Jets who beat them twice. It's been a good decade, but Karma says it's time for the streak to end!
My Pick: Jets +8.5. New York wins outright 20-19.
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