CHICAGO BEARS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS
Line: Bears -2.5
O/U: 35.5
The Bears will be better than they were last week, especially along the offensive line. But without Cutler, I don't think their offense will get it done. There's a reason Todd Collins had no interceptions between 1997 and last week...HE'S BEEN ON THE BENCH! Carolina has been playing hard and is due for a win. The Bears will come out with intensity following last week's loss, but so will the Panthers.
Trends: The Under is 14-3 in the last 17 Bears October road games. Carolina is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 pre-bye games.
My Pick: Panthers +2.5. Carolina wins outright
ATLANTA FALCONS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
Line: Falcons -3
O/U: 40.5
Atlanta is a legitimiately good team. Cleveland has been playing hard, and they deserved a win last week. But the Falcons can beat you in a lot of different ways.
Trends: Atlanta lost both prior meetings SU & ATS. The Browns are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 October games.
My Pick: Falcons -3. Atlanta wins 24-19.
NEW YORK GIANTS @ HOUSTON TEXANS
Line: Texans -3
O/U: 47.5
The Giants D-line really stepped up against the Bears, but the offense didn't look very good. The run game is a question mark, as Brandon Jacobs has lost the team's confidence and Bradshaw's ankle isn't 100% (even though he says it is). I don't think the defense will be able to stop the multiple weapons the Texans possess, though I'm not sure how dynamic Houston's offense will be if Andre Johnson isn't healthy enough to play. I'm also worried that Houston will fall back into the 8-8 or 9-7 groove at some point, but am not sure when the collapse will happen.
Trends: The Giants are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 October road games. The Texans covered both prior meetings against NY.
My Pick: Giants +3. I have no idea why, but I have a gut feeling on this one. NY wins 23-20.
GREEN BAY PACKERS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Line: Packers -2.5
O/U: 44
This one shouldn't even be a contest. The Skins played OK last week, but really haven't impressed me as much as I had hoped. Green Bay stumbled a little against the Lions, but they still got the W. It's not going to be easy to beat a solid Skins' D without Ryan Grant, but I think they'll score plenty of points to keep Washington out of reach.
Trends: The Packers are 5-0-1 ATS against the Skins since 1986. Five of these teams' past 6 meetings were played Under.
My Pick: Packers -2.5. Green Bay wins 27-10.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ BUFFALO BILLS
Line: 0
O/U: 41
YAY! Finally a Bills game where they can't possibly screw me over. As long as I take the Jags to win, the Bills will either verify my pick or they'll win the game - either way, I'm happy. Of note: Trent Edwards was picked up by the Jags. So I full expect Jacksonville to know every play Buffalo has in their playbook. Edwards had to be pissed after getting released by Buffalo and will be the main reason the Jags win (even if he doesn't see a single snap).
Trends: The Jags are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 against Buffalo. The Bills Under is 6-2 in their last 8 pre-bye games.
My Pick: Jaguars Pk. Jacksonville wins a shootout, 17-13.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
Line: Bengals -6
O/U: 38
I'm tempted to think that the Bengals will come off of their loss with newfound vigor, but they really haven't blown anyone out all season. Plus TO and Ochocinco are distracted with their new TV show on Versus...who thought that was a good idea in-season? Tampa is 2-1 and has looked pretty solid. Coming off a bye week, I expect them to have gameplanned for everything the Bengals can throw at them. In the end, I think the odds that the Bengals put on an offensive clinic are lower than the odds that Tampa plays them strong coming off the bye week.
Trends: Tampa is 6-2 in their last 8 games coming off a bye. The Bengals have lost 5 in a row SU against TB.
My Pick: Bucs +6. Cincy wins 23-20.
ST. LOUIS RAMS @ DETROIT LIONS
Line: Lions -3
O/U: 42.5
Detroit has been playing very well, and really deserves to win a game. St. Louis has won two in a row...it's highly unlikely that they'll make it 3.
Trends: The Rams Under is 4-1 in their last 5 on the road against NFC North opponents. The Lions are 1-7-1 ATS, 0-9 SU in their last 9 against the NFC West.
My Pick: Lions -3. Detroit has been playing too well to blow a gimme. Lions 27-10.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Line: Colts -7
O/U: 45
I can't believe the Chiefs are the NFL's last unbeaten team! Good to see that they won't have the chance to blow their undefeated record against a lesser opponent. The Colts will be focused coming off a loss, and have the talent to crush the upstart Chiefs.
Trends: The Chiefs Over is 6-1 in their last 7 games after a bye. Indy is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS against KC since 1990.
My Pick: Colts -7. Indy rolls 34-13.
DENVER BRONCOS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
Line: Ravens -7
O/U: 38.5
The Ravens are by far the better team. And they're playing at home against a Denver team that may be overconfident after a big win last week in Tennessee. They also have to travel a long way for the second week in a row. Then again, they're the Broncos, so they'll probably win just to piss me off.
Trends: The Broncos have lost 4 in a row SU and ATS against Baltimore. 6 of these teams' past 7 meetings have been played Under.
My Pick: Ravens -7. Baltimore wins 24-14.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS
Line: Saints -6.5
O/U: 45
New Orleans hasn't been blowing teams out this season, but if there were ever a team they could change that trend against, it's Arizona. They've been blown out by every strong team they've played.
Trends: The Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Arizona. The Cards are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 pre-bye games.
My Pick: Saints -6.5. New Orleans finally gets a blowout win, 38-14.
TENNESSEE TITANS @ DALLAS COWBOYS
Line: Cowboys -7
O/U: 41.5
Will we see the Cowboys from weeks 1 and 2 or the Cowboys from week 3? I think their bye week gave them a chance to reflect a bit, and when the Cowboys think too much they tend to get in their own way. Tennessee is going to be motivated after a bad loss to Denver, and I think they can keep this game within a touchdown. And god help me, Dallas, if you play like crap again I will come to your house and I will cut you. I hate you, but I can't stand to see a team that should be good playing like idiots.
Trends: The road team has covered in 6 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams. The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after a bye.
My Pick: Titans +7. Dallas wins 23-17.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS
Line: Chargers -6
O/U: 45
I expect Oakland to beat the spread against a team they shouldn't at least twice this season, and this may be their first chance. San Diego has been up and down thus far, and has actually LOST to KC and Seattle on the road. Last week they won big at home, so it naturally follows that they'd stumble this week on the road.
Trends: The Chargers have won 13 straight SU against Oakland. The Raiders are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 at home against San Diego.
My Pick: Raiders +6. I've been picking the Raiders far too much this season. I must be a masochist. Chargers still win 20-17.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Line: 49ers -3
O/U: 38
I guess the oddsmakers have no confidence in Kolb either! San Francisco is due for a win, but I don't know if it will be this week. They've been up and down like the Chargers, but have lost all 4 games. They play better teams close and get blown out by lesser teams. I think they'll underestimate Kolb and blow another one.
Trends: The Eagles have won and covered 4 in a row against SF. 5 of the teams' past 6 meetings have been played Over.
My Pick: Eagles +3. Philly wins outright 24-13.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ NEW YORK JETS
Line: Jets -4
O/U: 39
Does anyone else think it's hilarious that "Slouch" got himself traded directly into another matchup against Revis? Darrelle isn't guaranteed to play, but with Moss coming back to town I'm sure he'll be on the field. I think Minnesota has a good chance to win, especially given their record (not good - so they're motivated) and the extra week they've had to gameplan for the Jets. If they do win, I think they'll do it with defense. By that I mean that I think the Vikings defense will score a touchdown and change the complexion of the game. Moss and Favre won't be on the same page yet, though, so don't expect Moss' addition to be a major factor.
Trends: The Vikings are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 Post-bye games. The Jets are 5-0 against the Vikes since 1982.
My Pick: Vikings +4. Jets win 20-17.
BYES: MIA, NE, PIT, SEA
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