NFL Week Five Recap

Week Five Picks: 8-6

Week Five ATS: 10-4

Overall Picks: 47-29

Overall ATS: 41-32-3

Run Over

CHICAGO BEARS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

Line: Bears -2.5

O/U: 35.5

My Pick: Panthers +2.5. Carolina wins outright

Result: Bears 23-6

Ok, ok, I was way off. I had no idea Carolina wouldn't even TRY to stop the run. Chicago looks more and more legit with every win...with Minnesota falling further back each week, Chicago's playoff chances go up.

Best in the South?

ATLANTA FALCONS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

Line: Falcons -3

O/U: 40.5

My Pick: Falcons -3. Atlanta wins 24-19.

Result: Falcons 20-10

I was pretty close on how this would shape up. Cleveland has been playing hard, and could surprise a few more teams this season. With the win, Atlanta is behind only TB in the NFC South, and it's all but guaranteed that the Bucs will fall off soon. With the Reggie-less Saints struggling, are the Falcons the best in the South? I don't see how you can argue against it.

Surprise! It's the Giants.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

Line: Texans -3

O/U: 47.5

My Pick: Giants +3. I have no idea why, but I have a gut feeling on this one. NY wins 23-20.

Result: Giants 34-10

I wasn't sure why, but I had a feeling that the Giants would show up this week. They did, and in impressing fashion.

Packing it in?

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Line: Packers -2.5

O/U: 44

My Pick: Packers -2.5. Green Bay wins 27-10.

Result: Skins 16-13

What? I guess the Skins are one of those teams that wins the tough ones and loses the easy ones. This is a team that blew a 17-point lead with :01 left in the 3rd quarter against Houston and was beaten thoroughly by the Rams. THE RAMS. And now they come out and beat "everyone's" (not mine...) Super Bowl pick?

It's also possible that Washington is one of those teams that steps up when they have the motivation to do so. They beat Philly in McNabb's return to the city of brotherly love (despite McNabb being average at best) and defeated the Packers while Albert Haynesworth was away griveing with his family, with McNabb noting in the pre-game that "this game's for Albert".

I got one right!

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ BUFFALO BILLS

Line: 0

O/U: 41

My Pick: Jaguars Pk. Jacksonville wins a shootout, 17-13.

Result: Jags 36-26

The irony of my sarcasm is not lost on me. I joked that it would be a shootout, given that neither team has much of an offensive attack. And then it actually was a shootout, with the teams dousing the Over by 3 touchdowns. But at least I got a Bills game right! Too bad they're still winless...could they pull off 0-16? I would laugh so hard...

The Bengals have the Ravens' number; The Bucs have theirs

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

Line: Bengals -6

O/U: 38

My Pick: Bucs +6. Cincy wins 23-20.

Result: Bucs 24-21

The Bucs have now beaten the Bengals in 6 straight games. Not good if you're a Cincy fan. What can you make of these teams? At the end of the season, I still expect the Bengals to be close, but likely a win out of, the playoffs, and I expect Tampa to be thinking about golf by December - Yet the Bengals just lost to the 3-1 Bucs, a week after falling to the then-winless Browns. Gotta love Parity.

Hey, they were playing well...

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ DETROIT LIONS

Line: Lions -3

O/U: 42.5

My Pick: Lions -3. Detroit has been playing too well to blow a gimme. Lions 27-10.

Result: Lions 44-6

This game illustrates the dynamics of the lower end of the NFL. The Rams aren't great, but got two wins over streaky middle-to-lower-tier opponents. The Lions have played a tough schedule, but have played all of their opponents quite well. So I'm really not that surprised that the Lions are 38 points better than the Rams.

The Last Undefeated Falls

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Line: Colts -7

O/U: 45

My Pick: Colts -7. Indy rolls 34-13.

Result: Colts 19-9

I was right, but Indy certainly didn't "roll". Kansas City showed that they can play with the league's elite teams, and with the Chargers struggling (and already having lost to the Chiefs head-to-head), Kansas City might have a shot at postseason play. They're no Super Bowl contender, but 9-7 could win the AFC West.

I got the Denver AND Buffalo games right this week? Satan must be freezing.

DENVER BRONCOS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

Line: Ravens -7

O/U: 38.5

My Pick: Ravens -7. Baltimore wins 24-14.

Result: Ravens 31-17

I'm still on the Ravens' Super Bowl bandwagon. They already beat their main challenger for the crown - the jets - so who is going to stand in their way?

Of COURSE the Cards won...

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

Line: Saints -6.5

O/U: 45

My Pick: Saints -6.5. New Orleans finally gets a blowout win, 38-14.

Result: Cards 30-20

I have no idea how this happened. Had the entire Saints team been replaced by 90 year old nuns I still would have picked them to win by 7. Arizona is downright bad. I'm not sure what went down in the desert, but I don't expect it to continue. The Saints aren't that bad, and the Cards certainly aren't that good.

Same Ol Cowboys

TENNESSEE TITANS @ DALLAS COWBOYS

Line: Cowboys -7

O/U: 41.5

My Pick: Titans +7. Dallas wins 23-17.

Result: Titans 34-27

I wasn't sure how the Cowboys would come out of their bye week, but this game certainly proved a point. Dallas is going to continue to underachieve, and will likely miss the playoffs. The NFC North and South are too good this year not to have two wild card teams among them. Believe it or not, the vaunted NFC East is having a down year. And the Cowboys are the main reason.

HAHAHAHA

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

Line: Chargers -6

O/U: 45

My Pick: Raiders +6. I've been picking the Raiders far too much this season. I must be a masochist. Chargers still win 20-17.

Result: Raiders 35-27

Those West Coast teams sure are strange! Seattle and San Diego each seem to alternate between horrendous and unstoppable every week. Yes, I picked the Raiders to cover, but I didn't actually think they'd win! Come on Chargers - Have some dignity.

Still Winless

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Line: 49ers -3

O/U: 38

My Pick: Eagles +3. Philly wins outright 24-13.

Result: Eagles 27-24

Yet another streaky West Coast team - but unlike the previous two, San Fran alternates between respectable and useless. I guess this one counts as respectable, since the Eagles are a decent team. Too bad the 49ers are still 0-5 despite being picked to win their division!

Stupid Favre and his Stupid Late Interceptions

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ NEW YORK JETS

Line: Jets -4

O/U: 39

My Pick: Vikings +4. Jets win 20-17.

Result: Jets 29-20

I should have been dead-on with this pick, but Favre decided to throw a late pick-six to allow the Jets to beat the spread. Now the Vikes are 1-3 and in danger of falling too far behind in the NFC North to catch up.