Week Four Picks: 10-4
Week Four ATS: 9-5
Overall Picks: 39-23
Overall ATS: 31-28-3
Too Close?
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Line:Saints -13.5
O/U: 44.5
My Pick: Panthers +13.5. New Orleans wins 23-13.
Result: Saints 16-14
New Orleans isn't blowing people out this year, but they sure do seem to know how to win. They're only going to get better when the defense finally starts to force turnovers (like it did last year). And their tailbacks can't stay injured forever! Carolina has a lot of fight in them - their next few opponents better be careful, because this is a team that won't be winless much longer.
Ram Job
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS
Line: Seahawks -1
O/U: 40
My Pick: Seahawks -1. Seattle wins 17-13.
Result: Rams 20-3
I can't even pretend to understand this. They're like a completely different team on the road. It's unreal.
God They're Bad...
NEW YORK JETS @ BUFFALO BILLS
Line: Jets -5
O/U: 36.5
My Pick: Bills +5. New York wins 14-13.
Result: Jets 38-14
JC was right - no matter what I think the Bills will do, they find a way to do the opposite.
Best 0-4 Team Ever
DETROIT LIONS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
Line: Packers -14.5
O/U: 45.5
My Pick: Lions +14.5. Green Bay wins 27-13.
Result: Packers 28-26
Ok, so best ever might be an overstatement, but the Lions have competed awfully well for an 0-4 team. They "beat" the 3-1 Bears, barely lost to the 3-1 Pack, had a huge comeback fall 3 points short against 2-2 Philly, and hung in there against a Vikings team that was 0-2 at the time and desperate for a win. And most of that was done without their star QB Matt Stafford, who has been hurt since week 1. They'll get a win soon.
AFC Championship Preview?
BALTIMORE RAVENS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Line: Steelers -1
O/U: 34.5
My Pick: Ravens +1. Baltimore wins 17-13.
Result: Ravens 17-14
I was dead-on with this pick. Both of these teams are very solid, and could very well make deep postseason runs. Anybody suiting up against the Ravens or Steelers is going to have a fight on their hands - and most teams will lose that fight.
I Hate Denver
DENVER BRONCOS @ TENNESSEE TITANS
Line: Titans -6.5
O/U: 43
My Pick: Titans -6.5. Tennessee wins 31-20.
Result: Broncos 26-20
Much like the Bills, the Broncos refuse to cooperate with my picks. This week I really should have gone against my gut and taken them against the spread. I should just refuse to pick the Bills and Broncos and start each week at 0-2...it would be less stressful.
It's good!
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
Line: Falcons -7
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: 49ers +7. Atlanta still wins 23-21.
Result: Falcons 16-14
Another excellent pick by yours truly. San Fran can compete against the better teams, but can't seem to do anything against their lesser opponents. At 0-4, things look bleak. But the rest of their division is 2-2, so they still have a very realistic chance to fulfill the prophecy and win the West. They just need to pull their heads out of their bums and win some games.
When ESPN says it's a Lock, I need to learn to listen
CINCINNATI BENGALS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
Line: Bengals -3
O/U: 37.5
My Pick: Bengals -3. Cincy wins 20-13.
Result: Browns 23-20
ESPN analysts were picking the Browns left and right last week, discussing their hard play and the notion that they'd win very soon. I just didn't see how the Bengals, who recently defeated a very good Ravens team, could lose to the lowly Browns. Now I do.
The Jags have someone's number...
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Line: Colts -7
O/U: 46
My Pick: Colts -7. Indy rolls 34-17.
Result: Jags 31-28
How the Jags can beat a good team baffles me. They found a way to score points on an injury-plagued defense (Bob Sanders' injury alone counts as a plague), and somehow eeked out a win. The Colts always seem to have trouble with Jacksonville, for whatever reason. Don't let one result fool you - The Jags are bad, the Colts are good. Indy will figure things out.
The Raiders are Still Awful
HOUSTON TEXANS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS
Line: Texans -3
O/U: 43
My Pick: Texans -3. Houston wins 27-20.
Result: Texans 31-24
Wait, you're telling me Bruce Gradkowski just isn't getting the job done? I'm shocked. Oakland is a miserable franchise. Until Al Davis dies, they won't win 7 games in a season.
McNabb's Revenge
WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Line: Eagles -5.5
O/U: 42.5
My Pick: Redskins +5.5. Washington wins outright 23-17.
Result: Skins 17-12
It wasn't pretty, but McNabb's teammates backed him up and helped him to silence the city of Philadelphia. Or at least to divert their attention to baseball for a few weeks now that the Eagles are back in the hands of Kevin "corn-on-the" Kolb.
Finally a Team I can Pick!
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Line: Chargers -8
O/U: 45.5
My Pick: Chargers -8. San Diego rolls 34-14.
Result: Chargers 41-10
Arizona is helping me out - they beat the bad teams and get blown out by the good ones. They're a middle of the pack team that does what everyone expects them to do. Nice to have a team that can offset the pounding the Bills and Broncos give me every week.
Jay Cutler is a Prostitute
CHICAGO BEARS @ NEW YORK GIANTS
Line: Giants -3.5
O/U: 44
My Pick: Giants -3.5. New York wins 27-21.
Result: Giants 17-3
He gets paid an ungodly amount of money to lie flat on his back - how else do you explain his profession? I hate that Doug Gottlieb thought this was an awful game that wasn't worth watching. The Bears O-line was awful, but the Giants' D was stellar. They won almost every 1-on-1 line battle, and sacked Cutler NINE times. I found it quite entertaining.
How good are the Pats?
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS
Line: Pats -1
O/U: 46.5
My Pick: Pats -1. New England wins 31-28.
Result: 41-14
It's amazing that the Pats were down 7-6 at the half. Now that they've discarded Moss, I don't know if the Pats are as dangerous. He was the reason the smaller guys were open so frequently. We'll have to see how Brady handles the new coverages he'll see. Their defense isn't particularly outstanding either - they're young and don't strike fear into opponents like the Steelers' and Ravens' Defenses. They could be good, but I see them as the type of team that plays one outstanding half and falters in the other - which could come back to bite them.
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