NFL Week Six Recap

Week Six Picks: 10-4

Week Six ATS: 7-6-1

Overall Picks: 57-33

Overall ATS: 48-38-4

Seriously, San Diego?

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

Line: Chargers -8

O/U: 45

My Pick: Chargers -8. San Diego rolls the Rams 38-20.

Result: Rams 20-17

So not only did the Rams beat the spread, but they actually won this game? Really? If you had a video tape of the game and asked me to bet on the outcome, I'd still take the Chargers. That's how ridiculous the outcome was. I saw it, I heard it, and I still don't buy it. The Chargers are in DEEP trouble if they can't beat St. Louis, especially given their loss to lowly Oakland the week before.

So much for Trends

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ CHICAGO BEARS

Line: Bears -6

O/U: 37.5

My Pick: Bears -6. Chicago wins 31-10.

Result: Seahawks 23-20

Seattle looked great at home and awful on the road through 5 weeks. So naturally they come out in week 6 and beat a 4-1 team on the road. What's going on this week? These outcomes seem surreal...

So Close

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

Line: Texans -4.5

O/U: 45

My Pick: Texans -4.5. Houston 37-22.

Result: Texans 35-31

I have no idea how the Chiefs scored 31 points, but at least the Texans came back and won. That said, I hate when I lose a pick based on a half point. Although I suppose I'd be just as upset if the spread had been five.

I got one Right!

DETROIT LIONS @ NEW YORK GIANTS

Line: Giants -10

O/U: 44.5

My Pick: Lions +10. Giants win 27-20.

Result: Giants 28-20

It's always nice to be one point off of a perfect pick, especially in a crazy week like week 6 where just about everything went awry. The Giants are going to fall back to the pack now that people expect them to be good. That's just the way they roll. The Lions are a solid squad, and will continue to challenge almost every opponent. Matt Stafford's return could even propel them to a win or two that you wouldn't have expected out of them when the season began (i.e. Bears, Packers).

As Usual...

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Line: Steelers -13.5

O/U: 37.5

My Pick: Browns +13.5. Pittsburgh wins 20-9.

Result: Steelers 28-10

I've done this before. It seems like every time the Steelers play the Browns and are favored by 10+ points I convince myself that it's going to be a low-scoring game, only to watch Pittsburgh blow the game wide open and beat the spread handily.

Back to Business

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Line: Saints -4

O/U: 43.5

My Pick: Saints -4. New Orleans gets the W, 27-17.

Result: Saints 31-6

The Saints finally found some enthusiasm! It's good to see them back on track. The Bucs are clearly better than last year, but are not "for real" like the Chiefs. In other words, they may win a few more games, but they'll be heavy underdogs to all the good teams they play and will be out of playoff contention by week 12.

Uh Oh...

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS

Line: Packers -3

O/U: 45.5

My Pick: Packers -3. Green Bay wins 17-13.

Result: Dolphins 23-20 (OT)

The Packers' injuries are really catching up to them. You can't help but feel bad for them. They've got some of the best fans in the league and had such high hopes for this season - but the injury bug hath bitten the Pack yet again.

Don't Mess With Belichick

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Line: Patriots -2.5

O/U: 45

My Pick: Pats -2.5. New England wins 17-14.

Result: Pats 23-20 (OT)

I honestly made this pick solely because Belichick had an extra week to prepare for the Ravens. And I was right. Point Made.

How Good are the Eagles?

ATLANTA FALCONS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Line: Eagles -3

O/U: 42.5

My Pick: Falcons +3. Atlanta wins outright 16-10.

Result: Eagles 31-17

I'm actually asking, because I have no idea. I didn't expect much from them under Kolb, but thought they might do some interesting things with Vick under center. As soon as he went down, I went back to assuming they were Buffalo 2.0 - A team with an OK defense and no quarterback. Apparently I was wrong and Kevin Kolb IS good enough to win games. He'll probably have a bad game here or there, but he's been solid the past 2+ weeks. Atlanta is too good to lose to teams like Philly...they need to dig deeper.

They really shouldn't have needed a comeback...

NEW YORK JETS @ DENVER BRONCOS

Line: Jets -3

O/U: 41.5

My Pick: Jets -3. New York wins 27-13.

Result: Jets 24-20

It's a bit scary that the Jets needed a late comeback to beat the Broncos, who should have had very little success against the Jets D. Another way to look at it, however, is that the Jets had a bad game - a small letdown before their bye week - and still got the win. They'll come out after the Bye ready to play, and will likely avoid any more stumbles for at least another few weeks after analyzing all the things they did wrong against Denver.

Finally a Win!

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ sAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Line: 49ers -6.5

O/U: 41.5

My Pick: 49ers -6.5. San Francisco needs a win. They get it 24-13.

Result: 49ers 17-9

Quite the offensive slugfest. Alex Smith is not the answer...if San Fran wants to win games, they're going to need to do it defensively, like they did against Oakland.

HAHAHAHAHA, Dallas is 1-4

DALLAS COWBOYS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Line: Vikings -1.5

O/U: 44.5

My Pick: Vikings -1.5. Minnesota gets win #2, 24-20.

Result: Vikings 24-21

In case you didn't notice, I'm thrilled that the Cowboys are 1-4, especially given the expectations everyone had for them this season. They were "supposed" to be the first team to play a Super Bowl at home. Now it looks like they are long shots to reach the playoffs! Part of my joy is also due to my respect for Favre, Peterson, and the Vikings. I like to see them win, and with the Packers faltering, would enjoy watching them fight for a playoff spot down the stretch...a 1-4 start would have likely precluded them from being anywhere near playoff contention late in the year.

A little defense, anyone?

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Line: Colts -3

O/U: 44

My Pick: Colts -3. Indy wins 27-13.

Result: Colts 27-24

I had Indy's score right, but didn't realize that they'd let Washington score so many points. Did you know that Washington's defense is statistically the worst in the league? Isn't that crazy? They're 3-3 (which is better than normal for them, as of late), and have basically ridden their defense to wins for years. Now that the offense is no longer useless, the defense has gotten worse. They still have the players to be solid, though. If that D pulls it together, the Skins could make a run toward the playoffs. Especially with Dallas at 1-4. Hahaha. Makes me laugh every time.

QB Issues

TENNESSEE TITANS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Line: Titans -3

O/U: 45

My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee wins 23-10.

Result: Titans 30-3

I pretty much expected Tennessee to dominate. The one thing I didn't expect was for all of the quarterbacks to get hurt! It's not rare for a team to go out and sign a player, even a quarterback, in between games. It is VERY rare for a team to go out and sign a STARTING quarterback between games. Poor Jacksonville. They're hoping Garrard and/or Edwards can be ready for Sunday, but all the practice reps are going to two guys who were watching Monday Night's game from the comfort of their living rooms. I think the Chiefs may be able to end their two game losing streak, as the Jags won't be putting up much of a fight.