MIAMI DOLPHINS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
Line: Bengals -1.5
O/U: 43.5
Is it possible to determine which team needs a win more? Miami was the victim of an officiating mistake that cost them last week's game against the Steelers. Cincy has just been playing poorly. I think they'll show up to play at home, but will it be enough? In the end, I feel like Miami is battle-tested (check out their schedule...only 1 easy game so far), and is a better team when they're on the road.
Trends: The Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 against Cincy. Cincy is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games against Miami.
My Pick: Dolphins +1.5. Happy to be getting points on this one. Miami wins 23-17.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ DETROIT LIONS
Line: Lions -1
O/U: 44.5
I find this line to be quite intriguing. Detroit has had an extra week to prepare, but I don't trust their coaching staff enough to say that the extra week will have much of an effect. Stafford is back, but the Detroit offense did just fine without him. Despite the fact that the Skins know how to win, Detroit has the weapons to score a lot of points against the league's second-worst defense, and they have just enough defense of their own to prevent the Skins from getting back in the game.
Trends: The Skins have lost 4 straight ATS before a bye. The Lions have played 6 straight Unders after a bye.
My Pick: Lions -1. Detroit wins 27-23.
GREEN BAY PACKERS @ NEW YORK JETS
Line: Jets -5
O/U: 42.5
Clearly the Jets are the better team right now, given all of the Packers' injuries. The Jets are also coming off a bye, so they've had an extra week to prepare. When Rex Ryan is your coach, that extra week is huge. I also think Green Bay will come out a little flat after last week's emotional win. Even if they aren't flat, I think the Jets D will keep them very much in check.
Trends: The Packers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 October road games. The Jets are 7-1 SU v. Green Bay since 1991.
My Pick: Jets -5. New York's defense impresses in a 24-10 win.
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS
Line: Rams -3
O/U: 37
I actually think the Panthers have more talent than the Rams, but St. Louis has shown that they know how to win. Last week was a tough loss to swallow for the Rams, and I think they'll be hungrier for this win than will the Panthers, who just last week escaped with their first win of the year. With Matt Moore back, Steve Smith in the lineup, and JOnathan Stewart doing his thing, I just don't know if the Rams, who could be looking ahead to their bye week, will be able to keep up. If Deangelo Williams (game-time decision) does NOT play, I'd bet against the Panthers. If he does play, I'll take them to win. I'm betting on him playing.
Trends: The Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against St. Louis. The Rams' Over has been 9-1 in their last 10 pre-bye games.
My Pick: Panthers +3. Carolina wins 17-13.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ DALLAS COWBOYS
Line: Cowboys -6
O/U: 43.5
This game will come down to the mindset of the Dallas Cowboys team. They have two options: They can be down on themselves for playing terribly, being attacked by the media, and being without Romo. Or they can sack up and prove everyone wrong. I'm not in their locker room, but I have a feeling that when their backs are against the wall, they tend to perform better. Also of note: Jacksonville is terrible.
Trends: The Jags are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 pre-bye games. Three of these teams' past four meetings were played Under.
My Pick: Cowboys -6. Dallas wins 31-10.
BUFFALO BILLS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Line: Chiefs -7.5
O/U: 46
Thank you oddsmakers - you've made this an easy pick. BUffalo played very well against Baltimore last week, and I don't think a trip to KC will scare them much. I'm not sure they'll win, but I cerainly think they can make it a close game. Their mindset at 0-6 has likely started to drift toward not going 0-16, and this game is one of 3 or 4 "easier" games left on the schedule.
Trends: The Bills are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 against KC. 7 of these teams' last 8 meetings have been played Under.
My Pick: Bills +7.5. Buffalo wins outright - that's right, I'm calling win #1 - 24-20.
DENVER BRONCOS @ SAN FRANCiSCO 49ERS
Line: 49ers -1.5
O/U: 42
Most teams respond to utter embarassment with a strong performance the following week - I expect nothing less of the Broncos. San Fran finds ways to lose, and I feel like their team has already mentally checked out of this season.
Trends: The Broncos are 1-3 ATS in their last 4 trips to San Fran. The 49ers are 1-5 ATS their last 6 pre-bye games.
My Pick: Broncos +1.5. Denver wins 21-17.
TENNESSEE TITANS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Line: Chargers -3.5
O/U: 44.5
The Chargers have been shooting themselves in the foot all season long. Without all of the turnovers against New England they would have won the game. Tennessee is a solid squad, and I certainly think they can "take" the Chargers. I'm just not sure whether I should give the Chargers more than a field goal. We'll let the Trends decide...
Trends: The Titans are 6-2 ATS in their last 6 games before a bye. The Chargers have won 6 straight ATS against Tennessee.
My Pick: Chargers -3.5. San Diego wins 21-17.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Line: Pats -5
O/U: 44
If Favre doesn't start, the world will come to an end. That may be an exaggeration, but I do think it would be a shame to let a coach's decision end one of the most impressive streaks in all of sports. He's retiring at the end of the season - let him go out there on a bum wheel and risk tearing it to shreds if that's what he wants to do. It's not like you have to protect his future. You need to win NOW. If Favre doesn't play, they'll lose by plenty, as I think the rest of the team will react poorly to the situation and will not be 100% in the game. If he plays, Minny should beat the spread, if not win the game. It's hero time, Brett. Percy just missed getting his toe down last week to let you leave Lambeau in glory. Now is your chance to come out and create a moment that will last forever.
Trends: The Vikings are 2-8 SU and ATS in their last 10 against the AFC East. These teams' past 4 meetings were played Under.
My Pick: Vikings +5. They haven't ruled him out, which means he ought to start. Go Vikings! Minny wins outright on sheer emotion, 23-20.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS
Line: Cards -3
O/U: 39.5
This one could go either way. Tampa knows how to win; Arizona can put up big point totals at home. In the end, my vote has to go for the team whose quarterbacks are not Derek Anderson and Max Hall. Plus I like the way rookie wideout Mike Williams (Go Orange!) has been playing.
Trends: The Bucs have lost 11 straight October road games SU. 6 of these teams' past 7 meetings in the desert were played Under.
My Pick: Bucs +3. Tampa wins 20-17.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS
Line: Raiders -2.5
O/U: 42
I think both teams will lose...Seattle is awful on the road, and the Raiders should have a big letdown after their domination of the Broncos last week. The fact that sways this pick? I think Oakland accidentally scored their entire allotment of points for the rest of the season in that one game in Denver.
Trends: The Seahawks are 3-7 ATS in their 10 against Oakland. The Raiders are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last 5 against Seattle.
My Pick: Seahawks +2.5. Seattle wins 28-20.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Line: Saints -1
O/U: 44
I know the "Who Dat Nation" can, at times, will their team to victory, and they'll be especially rowdy on Halloween night against the Steelers. Problem: "Who dat" isn't just the Saints fan club right now...it's also what everyone says when they look into New Orleans' backfield. Bush and Thomas are still out. They won't be able to beat the Steelers D without a balanced attack.
Trends: Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against the NFC South. The Saints are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 against Pittsburgh.
My Pick: Steelers +1. Pittsburgh wins 27-17.
HOUSTON TEXANS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Line: Colts -5.5
O/U: 50
The Colts aren't happy that the Texans beat them in week one. Both teams are coming off of their bye weeks, so neither gains an advantage in that respect. Peyton against the league's worst defense makes me think "slaughter", but the Colts will likely allow their fair share of points as well against a solid Houston offense.
Trends: The Texans Under is 5-1 in their last 6 after a bye. The Colts Over is 9-2 in their last 11 after a bye.
My Pick: Texans +5.5. Indy wins 31-28.
Byes: ATL, BAL, CHI, CLE, NYG, PHI
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