CLEVELAND BROWNS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Line: Saints -13
O/U: 43
The Saints still have no running game, but seem to have done just fine against Tampa last week. If they were a running team with no passing attack, I might pick the Browns to cover. Cleveland has a lot of fight in them, but most of their skill position players are banged up. New Orleans should be able to throw all over the Browns and should win big, especially at home.
Trends: The Browns have played 8 straight Unders against the NFC South. New Orleans is 2-5-1 ATS in their last 5 against the AFC NOrth.
My Pick: Saints -13. New Orleans wins 30-13.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ TENNESSEE TITANS
Line: Titans -3
O/U: 43
I keep expecting Kevin Kolb to screw up, but he just keeps proving me wrong. This week, however, he's without the speedy Desean Jackson, and Vick is back and ready to take over if Kolb screws up. The Eagles will be lacking speed with Jackson on the sideline, and I expect Reid to turn to Vick frequently to give the team a burst. I'm not sure Vick in a limited role will be enough, though. Kerry Collins can run the Titans offense (so could a fourth-grader...just hand the ball to CJ!), and I think Tennessee's defense will be strong enough to stifle the Eagles.
Trends: The Eagles have lost 3 straight SU to Tennessee. The Titans are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 October home games.
My Pick: Titans -3. Tennessee wins 23-17.
BUFFALO BILLS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
Line: Ravens -13
O/U: 40
The Bills have had an extra week to gameplan for the Ravens. That won't matter - 10 points will be tough to come. The Bills O against the Ravens D is like throwing eggs against a brick wall. The Ravens will score plenty; the Bills won't. Of course, now that I've picked it this way, Buffalo will score a late touchdown to lose by 12 and screw me against the spread. Just watch...
Trends: The Bills are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 post-bye games. These teams have played their last 4 meetings Under.
My Pick: Ravens -13. Baltimore crushes the Bills 30-6.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ CHICAGO BEARS
Line: Bears -3
O/U: 40
This is an incredibly unpredictable matchup. The league's worst defense plays in Washington, but we all know they're better than the statistics show. McNabb is fully capable of leading the offense to a win against a strong Bears' D, and the Skins seem to beat all of the teams they're "not supposed" to beat. Plus the Bears have no idea how to protect their quarterback, and the Redskins have a pretty good D-line.
Trends: The Redskins are 7-2 SU and ATS in their last 9 against Chicago. The Bears have lost six ATS in a row against the Skins.
My Pick: Redskins +3. Washington wins outright 17-10.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS
Line: Steelers -3
O/U: 40.5
This pick scares me, but for some reason I feel like the Dolphins are a good pick as a home underdog. Roethlisberger looked ok last week, but he's not 100% up to speed yet, and Miami may be able to exploit that. Pittsburgh's defense has been incredible, but Miami will throw in just enough wrinkles to make things interesting. Then again, the Steelers will be fired up after all the BS surrounding Harrison this week, and I think that added fire will propel them to victory.
Trends: The Steelers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 trips to Miami. Six of these teams' past eight meetings have been played Under.
My Pick: Steelers -3. Pittsburgh wins a slugfest 17-13.
ST. LOUIS RAMS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Line: Bucs -2.5
O/U: 38
The Rams seem to know how to win this year, but so do the Bucs. Tampa is home, which will help, but their three wins were all crappy teams. What does that say? It says that when Tampa comes into a game thinking they can win, they do. I also expect St. Louis to have a bit of a hangover after a big win over San Diego.
Trends: The Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against Tampa. The Under is 13-2 the last 15 times Tampa has faced the NFC West.
My Pick: Bucs -2.5. Tampa wins 17-10.
CINCINNATI BENGALS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
Line: Falcons -3
O/U: 42.5
Atlanta is the better team, and coming off a loss, I expect them to be hungry. Cincy's Chad Ochocinco sent the secondary a little present, as well, which may have fired them up. The Bengals have had an extra week to gameplan, but with TO and Ocho distracted by their new TV show, I doubt they're 100% ready to play. Cincy has the defense to shut down certain offenses, but I don't know if Atlanta's is one of them.
Trends: The Bengals are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 October road games. The Falcons are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 pre-bye games.
My Pick: Falcons -3. Atlanta wins 27-17.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS
Line: 49ers -3
O/U: 35.5
Carolina isn't a horrible team, yet they sit at 0-5. San Fran has only one win, and seems to find a way to lose every single week. Should the 49ers win? Yes. Will they? I wouldn't bet on it. The Panthers have played hard, and with an extra week to prepare, I expect them to get win #1.
Trends: The 49ers are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 against Carolina. The Panthers have played Under 6 of their last 7 post-bye games.
My Pick: Panthers +3. Carolina wins it as a home underdog 17-13.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Line: Chiefs -9
O/U: 37.5
We don't yet know who the Jaguars' starting quarterback will be...but it could be newly acquired (from his couch...) Todd Bouman. That should be good enough for me to take the Chiefs, who have looked quite good. I just have this sinking feeling that the Chiefs aren't quite as good as everyone thinks, and that spotting them 9 points is a dangerous proposition at best. In the end, it all comes down to who can run the ball effectively. Both teams have strong backs, but KC's D is #5 against the run, while the Jags are just #19.
Trends: The Jags are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 against eh AFC West. The Chiefs have lost 7 in a row SU to the AFC South.
My Pick: Chiefs -9. Kansas City wins 20-10.
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Line: Seahawks -5.5
O/U: 40.5
Seattle has looked invincible at home. Arizona played well two weeks ago, but for some reason I don't see them putting together a winning effort against the Seahawks, despite having an extra week to prepare. I do think they'll keep it close, however.
Trends: The Cards Under is 9-3 their last 12 games before a bye. The Seahawks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against the Cards.
My Pick: Cards +5.5. Seattle wins 20-17.
OAKLAND RAIDERS @ DENVER BRONCOS
Line: Broncos -8.5
O/U: 41.5
Oakland has been playing close games all season. Their only loss of more than 8 was in week one against the Titans. So why would I pick the Broncos to blow them out? Then again, I never can get a good read on the Broncos.
Trends: The Raiders are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 against Denver. The Broncos are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 within the division.
My Pick: Raiders +8.5. Denver wins 24-20.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Line: Chargers -3
O/U: 47
Can anyone tell me why San Diego is favored in this game? They've been awful. They lost to the Rams..THE RAMS...last week. Their first six games should have been a cake walk (take a look - it may be the easiest 6-game schedule I've ever seen...), yet they're 2-4. The Pats should wipe the floor with the Chargers. They have the potential to win, and if they were underdogs I'd think about picking them, but there is far more than a 50% chance that they'll lose or win by less than 3 than there is that they'll win by 4+. I'd have placed the spread at Pats +1, in case you were curious.
Trends: The past three meetings between these teams in San Diego have all been played Under. The Under is 8-2-1 in the Pats' last 11 games against the AFC West.
My Pick: Pats +3. I still can't believe I'm getting points on this. New England wins 21-17.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
Line: Packers -3
O/U: 44
Both teams really need a win. The Packers have no ground game to speak of, but Aaron Rodgers is certainly capable of burning the Vikings through the air. Favre has looked pedestrian all season, but I can guarantee he'll be back to form when he hits the not-yet-frozen tundra of Lambeau field. Clay Matthews will likely play, but I doubt that his presence will immediately fix the Packers' woes. The secondary is still banged up, and Favre knows how to win in Green Bay. Plus he'll have the Vikings pumped up for a win. And they really need it.
Trends: The Vikings are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 trips to Green Bay. Five of the teams' last six meetings were played Over.
My Pick: Vikings +3. Minnesota wins 27-20.
NEW YORK GIANTS @ DALLAS COWBOYS
Line: Cowboys -3
O/U: 44
The Giants aren't that great, and now that everyone thinks they are, they'll get even worse. That's just the way they always seem to play - they win when they're underdogs and lose when they're favorites. And I mean that in the "media" sense, and not necessarily in regard to the betting line. Dallas needed a win last week, so now they REALLY need a win. As hilarious as I would find a 1-5 Dallas team, I just can't imagine them losing this game. They've gotta be psyched up and ready to go, and the Giants are susceptible to getting rocked by a team that comes out hot - if you don't believe me, go back and see what happened when they played the Titans.
Trends: The Giants are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games against Dallas. The Cowboys are 9-2 SU in their last 11 October home games.
My Pick: Cowboys -3. Dallas rolls the Giants 34-14.
Byes: DET, HOU, IND, NYJ
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