NFL Week Twelve Recap

Week Twelve Picks: 13-3

Week Twelve ATS: 8-8

Overall Picks: 111-65

Overall ATS: 92-79-5

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ DETROIT LIONS

Line: Pats -6.5

O/U: 50.5

My Pick: Lions +6.5. New England wins 23-20.

Result: Pats 45-24

I looked like a genius until the fourth quarter. Apparently the Lions only had 45 minutes of decent football in them.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ DALLAS COWBOYS

Line: Saints -4.5

O/U: 49.5

My Pick: Saints -4.5. New Orleans wins 31-19.

Result: Saints 30-27

The Saints didn't use Reggie Bush enough. It was almost like he was out there as a decoy. No wonder the Cowboys had the opportunity to come back.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ NEW YORK JETS

Line: Jets -9

O/U: 43

My Pick: Bengals +9. New York wins 20-17.

Result: Jets 26-10

So NOW the Jets decide to beat someone handily. Jerks.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Line: Falcons -1.5

O/U: 47.5

My Pick: Falcons -1.5. Atlanta wins 20-13.

Result: Falcons 20-17

I was very close on this one. No surprise that the Packers defense was solid, nor that the Falcons were still solid enough to pull out a win. Could the Falcons go 13-3? It seems crazy, but their remaining schedule is pretty darn easy, and they are playing very consistent football.

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

Line: Browns -9.5

O/U: 37.5

My Pick: Panthers +9.5. Cleveland wins 20-17.

Result: Browns 24-23

Again, close to perfect on the pick. But after my Thanksgiving Day meltdown, my record for this week is destined to be in the toilet.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ NEW YORK GIANTS

Line: Giants -7

O/U: 44

My Pick: Giants -7. New York rolls 33-10.

Result: Giants 24-20

I'm starting to wonder if the Jags are for real. Thankfully I'm well aware that the Giants are worse than advertised, which accounts for the close game. But I do need to be careful, because with the Jags' confidence level riding high, they could be dangerous.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ BUFFALO BILLS

Line: Steelers -6.5

O/U: 43.5

My Pick: Steelers -6.5. Pittsburgh wins 23-14.

Result: Steelers 19-16 (ot)

The Bills are playing everyone close right now...until I pick them to do so and they have a monumental collapse and a 20 point loss...

TENNESSEE TITANS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

Line: Texans -6

O/U: 46.5

My Pick: Texans -6. Houston wins 31-13.

Result: Texans 20-0

I knew that new Titans QB was a nobody...guess we'll never see him again...

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Line: Vikings -1.5

O/U: 44

My Pick: Vikings -1.5. Minnesota wins 24-16.

Result: Vikings 17-13

Still not what I expected out of the Vikings, but a win's a win. Why do they still suck? It makes no sense to me...The defense alone should be able to carry that team to victories.

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

Line: Raiders -2.5

O/U: 38

My Pick: Dolphins +2.5. Miami wins 23-17.

Result: Dolphins 33-17

Miami finally pulled away. Oakland is not for real. Surprise, surprise.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Line: Chiefs -2

O/U: 44.5

My Pick: Chiefs -2. KC Wins 30-20.

Result: Chiefs 42-24

KC needed another blowout win. How bad is the NFC West? 13 of their 17 total wins have either been against each other or against the AFC West, which is also awful. The 7-9 team that wins the NFC West will lose by 20 in the first round of the playoffs. They may as well give the 5-seed a bye...

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ CHICAGO BEARS

Line: Eagles -3

O/U: 43

My Pick: Eagles -3. Philly wins 27-14.

Result: Bears 31-26

I forgot the Bears had an offense and the Eagles' D was inconsistent.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

Line: Ravens 7.5

O/U: 42

My Pick: Ravens -7.5. Baltimore wins 30-10.

Result: Ravens 17-10

Damn garbage time touchdowns.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ DENVER BRONCOS

Line: Broncos -3.5

O/U: 44.5

My Pick: Broncos -3.5. Denver wins 20-16.

Result: Rams 36-33

Denver stinks, but thank goodness for the garbage time TD that helped them beat the spread!

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Line: Colts -2.5

O/U: 50.5

My Pick: Colts -2.5. Indy wins 31-28.

Result: Chargers 36-14

Umm...my bad...I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around Indy being a middle-of-the-road team...

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

Line: 49ers -1

O/U: 40

My Pick: 49ers -1. San Fran wins 20-17.

Result: 49ers 27-6

Even the 49ers can blow out the Cards. That's a sign that change is needed...

NFL Week Twelve Preview

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ DETROIT LIONS

Line: Pats -6.5

O/U: 50.5

The Lions have been a pretty solid opponent, usually play hard on Thanksgiving, and have beaten the spread quite a few times this year. The Pats lost big on the road at Cleveland, and though they've beaten some good teams, they haven't played many laughers. I worry that they play down to the competition.

My Pick: Lions +6.5. New England wins 23-20.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ DALLAS COWBOYS

Line: Saints -4.5

O/U: 49.5

The Saints have been very up-and-down this season, so this is actually a tough choice. Dallas is 2-0 under Garrett, and seems to be playing with more heart. I expect them to view Thanksgiving as a chance to redeem themselves in front of the fans. But Nawlins should still be good enough to shut em down.

My Pick: Saints -4.5. New Orleans wins 31-19.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ NEW YORK JETS

Line: Jets -9

O/U: 43

No explanation needed - this spread is just too big. Cincy blows, but they're still a professional football team. They have the talent to keep the game close. The Jets have 2 OT wins and a last-second TD pass win in their last 3 games. I'm not predicting a blowout.

My Pick: Bengals +9. New York wins 20-17.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Line: Falcons -1.5

O/U: 47.5

Green Bay has won two blowouts in a row, and may come in overconfident. Atlanta is a good team, and will beat the Packers if Green Bay doesn't show up with its A-game.

My Pick: Falcons -1.5. Atlanta wins 20-13.

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

Line: Browns -9.5

O/U: 37.5

Easy pick. Carolina is bad, but Cleveland isn't particularly good. They're also starting DelHomme, which could result in 4 INTs and a loss to Carolina. There is no way I can give 9 and a half points to the Browns. Ever.

My Pick: Panthers +9.5. Cleveland wins 20-17.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ NEW YORK GIANTS

Line: Giants -7

O/U: 44

Few teams need a win like the Giants do...they were being touted as one of the league's best teams, and after two division losses now find themselves at 6-4. The Giants have the D-line to keep Garrard off his game, and Eli should be able to have his way with the Jags' secondary. The Jags have no business being above .500, and need to return to earth.

My Pick: Giants -7. New York rolls 33-10.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ BUFFALO BILLS

Line: Steelers -6.5

O/U: 43.5

Buffalo is on a winning streak, so the Steelers better watch out! Just kidding. They're still the Bills.

My Pick: Steelers -6.5. Pittsburgh wins 23-14.

TENNESSEE TITANS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

Line: Texans -6

O/U: 46.5

Both of these teams have fallen on some hard times. The Titans looked phenomenal earlier in the season, but are now losers of 3 straight. The Texans have lost 4 in a row after a solid start, including a win over the Colts on opening day. I expected the Texans to end up around .500 again, but am having trouble seeing that now. The Titans have had a lot of off the field press, and it seems to be hurting their focus. And now, after all the craziness, Rusty Smith is listed as starting QB in Tennessee...who?

My Pick: Texans -6. Houston wins 31-13.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Line: Vikings -1.5

O/U: 44

Like the Cowboys, I think the Vikings will respond well under their new coach. Favre doesn't have to worry about the distraction of not being on the same page with Childress, and he knows Fraser is committed to him.

My Pick: Vikings -1.5. Minnesota wins 24-16.

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

Line: Raiders -2.5

O/U: 38

Either I am going to learn something this week, or the oddsmakers are crazy. Miami is underachieving at 5-5, and is looking for some wins to get back into the playoff conversation. They also play better on the road. I know the Raiders did some impressive things a few weeks ago, but I'm not sold. It seems odd that they'd be favored, even with Miami's long trip across the country.

My Pick: Dolphins +2.5. Miami wins 23-17.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Line: Chiefs -2

O/U: 44.5

This is another game that KC needs to win if we are going to consider them a legitimate contender. I certainly think they can bring home the W, but they better not underestimate the Seahawks, who play much better at home.

My Pick: Chiefs -2. KC Wins 30-20.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ CHICAGO BEARS

Line: Eagles -3

O/U: 43

The schedulers have outdone themselves. Last week Vick was put up against a very good D-line in New York. This week he goes to Chicago to take on another very good defense. It'll be interesting to see how he picks apart the Bears...

My Pick: Eagles -3. Philly wins 27-14.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

Line: Ravens 7.5

O/U: 42

I guess the oddsmakers don't respect Tampa's 7-3 record either!

My Pick: Ravens -7.5. Baltimore wins 30-10.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ DENVER BRONCOS

Line: Broncos -3.5

O/U: 44.5

I'm tempted to pick the Rams, simply because they know how to win. But in Denver, with the thinner air, strange things tend to happen.

My Pick: Broncos -3.5. Denver wins 20-16.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Line: Colts -2.5

O/U: 50.5

Ladies and gentlemen, your 6-5 Indianapolis Colts! See, it just doesn't sound right. I know Rivers has been playing well, but on future record alone I just don't see the Colts losing. They've also had good success against the Bolts in Indy.

My Pick: Colts -2.5. Indy wins 31-28.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

Line: 49ers -1

O/U: 40

Maybe I'm doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result - which is, incidentally, the definition of stupid - but I think Troy Smith gives the 49ers an option that they can win with. I don't know that they will, but they certainly can. And Arizona is atrocious.

My Pick: 49ers -1. San Fran wins 20-17.

NFL Week Eleven Recap

Week Ten Picks: 10-6

Week Ten ATS: 12-4

Overall Picks: 98-62

Overall ATS: 84-71-5

CHICAGO BEARS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

Line: Dolphins -2.5

O/U: 40.5

My Pick: Bears +2.5. Chicago wins 20-10.

Result: Bears 16-0

See? Told you Thigpen was not the second coming of Marino.

HOUSTON TEXANS @ NEW YORK JETS

Line: Jets -7

O/U: 45.5

My Pick: Texans +7. Houston wins 17-13.

Result: Jets 30-27

The Jets love playing close games. But they're 9-2, so can the fans really complain?

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ TENNESSEE TITANS

Line: Titans -7

O/U: 44

My Pick: Titans -7. Tennessee rolls 31-20.

Result: Skins 19-16 (ot)

Tennessee became awful overnight. I think it's all the Vince Young drama. At one point he was the league's top-rated passer. Now he's a distraction again. Go figure.

BUFFALO BILLS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

Line: Bengals -5

O/U: 44

My Pick: Bills +5. Buffalo gets its first road win 17-14.

Result: Bills 49-31

There are certain things is life that you should never be ashamed of. Letting the Bills drop 49 points on you, including 35 in the second half after trailing 31-14, isn't one of them.

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Line: Jaguars -1.5

O/U: 44

My Pick: Browns +1.5. Cleveland wins 23-20.

Result: Jaguars 24-20

The Jags are the worst 6-4 team I have seen in a long time...

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Line: Packers -3

O/U: 44

My Pick: Vikings +3. Minnesota wins 23-17.

Result: Packers 31-3

So much for Favre beating the Packers in his last career start against them.

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Line: Steelers -7

O/U: 41.5

My Pick: Steelers -7. Pittsburgh wins 27-10.

Result: Steelers 35-3

Surprise, surprise. The Raiders aren't for real. Who saw that coming?

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

Line: Ravens -10.5

O/U: 37.5

My Pick: Ravens -10.5. Baltimore wins 37-10.

Result: Ravens 37-13

Ed Reed is the man!

DETROIT LIONS @ DALLAS COWBOYS

Line: Cowboys -6

O/U: 46

My Pick: Cowboys -6. Dallas wins 30-20.

Result: Cowboys 35-19

Dallas seems to be putting things back together. Too little too late, though.

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Line: Chiefs -7.5

O/U: 44

My Pick: Chiefs -7.5. KC Rolls 33-13.

Result: Chiefs 31-13

Man, I was so close...I don't think I've predicted an exact score all year!

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Line: 49ers -3

O/U: 41.5

My Pick: 49ers -3. San Fran wins 26-20.

Result: Bucs 21-0

Pathetic. I can't remember the last time a team was supposed to be good and was THIS bad. The Cowboys are close, but at least we've seen them do some good things. The 49ers are just plain awful.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Line: Saints -12

O/U: 44

My Pick: Saints -12. New Orleans waffle-stomps the Seahawks 45-10.

Result: Saints 34-19

Not as bad as it could have been...

ATLANTA FALCONS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

Line: Falcons -3

O/U: 43

My Pick: Falcons -3. Atlanta wins 27-14.

Result: Falcons 34-17

Atlanta has been beating the teams they should beat...that's the sign of a solid, consistent team. They may have the mental makeup to make it to the Super Bowl this year!

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Line: Pats -3.5

O/U: 50

My Pick: Colts +3.5. Indy wins 27-24.

Result: Pats 31-28

I was thinking about picking the Pats by 3...oh well, it still counts as an ATS win.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Line: Eagles -3

O/U: 48

My Pick: Eagles -3. Philly wins 27-17.

Result: Eagles 27-17

WOOHOOOOOOO! I called an exact score! First one of the year...and I was close on the Chiefs game, too! Let's hope I can stay this locked-in for the rest of the year.

DENVER BRONCOS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Line: Chargers -10

O/U: 50.5

My Pick: Chargers -10. San Diego wins 31-20.

Result: Chargers 35-14

San Diego is getting better...I'll bet they end up 9-7 and win the West...

Week Eleven Preview

CHICAGO BEARS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

Line: Dolphins -2.5

O/U: 40.5

Analysts think Tyler Thigpen will be a solid QB for the Fins. Their passing game has been stagnant thus far, and I don't see a third-string quarterback making any significant improvements. If Chicago can key on the run, Miami will have trouble scoring. And just because they won once at home doesn't mean it will continue.

My Pick: Bears +2.5. Chicago wins 20-10.

HOUSTON TEXANS @ NEW YORK JETS

Line: Jets -7

O/U: 45.5

The Jets have been playing close games against bad teams lately, so I'm not sure why I'd pick them to beat a full touchdown spread against a Houston team that really needs a win. I may be way off base, and New York may put on an offensive clinic to make up for the last two games, but I like the Texans to get back on track.

My Pick: Texans +7. Houston wins 17-13.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ TENNESSEE TITANS

Line: Titans -7

O/U: 44

I hate full-touchdown spreads...Washington's defense is pretty awful right now, but I have to imagine they'll rebound after such a poor performance against Philly. Then again, the Titans are looking to rebound from a bad loss too. I'm making this pick for one reason - Tennessee already beat the rest of the NFC East in convincing fashion.

My Pick: Titans -7. Tennessee rolls 31-20.

BUFFALO BILLS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

Line: Bengals -5

O/U: 44

Buffalo has been playing very hard lately, and the Bengals may be a little suspect. I don't think the Bills will start phoning it in just because they got a win. I also think they can get under TO's skin a little bit on the field, which will throw Cincy's offense into a downward spiral. The Tocho show isn't working in Cincy - they're just 2-7. To their credit, though, they are losing close games...

My Pick: Bills +5. Buffalo gets its first road win 17-14.

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Line: Jaguars -1.5

O/U: 44

The Jaguars showed that they can win last week against Houston, but the Browns have been playing some solid football lately, too. After the win over the Pats, I'm sold on them - at least for the moment. They also have the ability to stop the run with big Shaun Rogers at nose tackle, and if you can stop MJD, you can stop the Jags.

My Pick: Browns +1.5. Cleveland wins 23-20.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Line: Packers -3

O/U: 44

I really want to pick the Packers, but Minnesota is a home underdog, which won't sit well with them, and Favre always plays the Packers hard. If he loses both games against the Packers in his final season, it'll kill him. So I expect him to will the Vikings to victory. Plus the Packers are banged up, and Favre HAS to beat the Packers in his last ever game against them. It's only right...

My Pick: Vikings +3. Minnesota wins 23-17.

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Line: Steelers -7

O/U: 41.5

Now we'll find out if the Raiders are for real. It's still an easy pick, though. Pittsburgh doesn't lose back to back games, and the Raiders have to fly all the way across the country, which tends to be an issue for west-coast teams.

My Pick: Steelers -7. Pittsburgh wins 27-10.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

Line: Ravens -10.5

O/U: 37.5

How do great defenses fare against bad offenses? Generally quite well...

My Pick: Ravens -10.5. Baltimore wins 37-10.

DETROIT LIONS @ DALLAS COWBOYS

Line: Cowboys -6

O/U: 46

The Cowboys are playing hard again, and the Lions just lost to the Bills. Detroit has a knack for beating the spread, but I think Dallas is ready to find a little success.

My Pick: Cowboys -6. Dallas wins 30-20.

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Line: Chiefs -7.5

O/U: 44

If KC can't blow out the Cards, they may as well pack it in.

My Pick: Chiefs -7.5. KC Rolls 33-13.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Line: 49ers -3

O/U: 41.5

The Bucs have showed that they can play, but I'm not sure how traveling to the West Coast will affect them. The last time they went out that way, they downed Arizona. They're also 2-0 thus far against the NFC West. The problem for the Bucs is that the 49ers still think they have a shot at winning the division, and Troy Smith gives them some interesting new options offensively. So not only will they be playing hard, but they have the talent to win big. They haven't put it together yet, but I think they're gradually learning how to win.

My Pick: 49ers -3. San Fran wins 26-20.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Line: Saints -12

O/U: 44

Wow, no love for the Seahawks. Then again, the oddsmakers aren't stupid - Seattle either gets blown out, or does the blowing out. They're not going to blow out the Saints, so there's only one outcome that makes any sense.

My Pick: Saints -12. New Orleans waffle-stomps the Seahawks 45-10.

ATLANTA FALCONS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

Line: Falcons -3

O/U: 43

The Rams know how to win, but the Falcons are playing solid football right now. I don't expect them to have any trouble in St. Louis.

My Pick: Falcons -3. Atlanta wins 27-14.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Line: Pats -3.5

O/U: 50

This pick is going to be an absolute guess. These teams usually play epic battles, so it's possible that the Pats will win by 3. It's also possible that the Colts will win, despite all of their injuries. I'm going to bet based on total numbers - Indy's defense is #18 to New England's #29, and Indy's offense is #4 to New England's #17.

My Pick: Colts +3.5. Indy wins 27-24.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Line: Eagles -3

O/U: 48

Is it possible for the Giants to win? Yeah, sure. But after last week's performances, I'm giving this one to the Eagles without much of a struggle. I don't know that anyone can stop Vick right now, even the Giants, with their fantastic D-line.

My Pick: Eagles -3. Philly wins 27-17.

DENVER BRONCOS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Line: Chargers -10

O/U: 50.5

Denver can't put together back-to-back wins over the likes of KC and SD, can they? San Diego is fighting to win the division, and most analysts think they will. Despite some awful early-season losses, I think the Chargers are back and ready to play.

My Pick: Chargers -10. San Diego wins 31-20.

Week Ten Recap

Week Ten Picks: 6-8

Week Ten ATS: 7-7

Overall Picks: 88-56

Overall ATS: 72-67-5

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Line: Falcons -1

O/U: 44

My Pick: Ravens +1. Baltimore wins 23-20.

Result: Falcons 26-20

I tend to overestimate the Ravens every year. I like their defense a little too much, and it obscures my ability to pick against them.

NEW YORK JETS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

Line: Jets -3

O/U: 37.5

My Pick: Jets -3. New York wins 27-17.

Result: Jets 26-20 (ot)

I was very lucky to beat this spread. The Jets keep playing down to their opposition. They better knock that off if they're going to contend for a ring.

HOUSTON TEXANS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Line: Jags -1

O/U: 49.5

Really? The Jaguars are favored? The Texans D has been bad lately, but their offense is good enough to run away with this one.

My Pick: Texans +1. Houston rolls 34-20.

Result: Jags 31-24

A bit of a weird finish...I'm not sure how the Texans have fallen so far after their first 3 games were so fantastic, but they have...Ever since they got blown out at home by the Giants they're just not the same team.

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Line: Bucs -7

O/U: 37

My Pick: Bucs -7. Tampa wins 20-9.

Result: Bucs 31-16

Tampa's offense keeps putting up points, and the defense is more than adequate to win games. I'm curious to see how long they can stay in the discussion for a playoff spot.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ CHICAGO BEARS

Line: Vikings -1

O/U: 40.5

My Pick: Vikings -1. Minnesota wins 23-20.

Result: Bears 27-13

The Vikings are done...and I hate to say that, because I really wanted to see Favre go out on top. Minnesota is another team that I tend to pick more because I WANT them to win...that's not a very good strategy.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Line: Colts -7

O/U: 47

My Pick: Bengals +7. Indy is too banged up for me to bet on a blowout. Indy still wins 23-20.

Result: Colts 23-17

Called that one. Indy is going to need to get well soon...the Pats loom. It's always a competitive game, but the Pats get the edge if Indy's still all banged up.

TENNESSEE TITANS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

Line: 0

O/U: 42.5

My Pick: Titans win 20-17.

Result: Dolphins 29-17

Miami finally learned how to win at home. I guess it required 3 quarterbacks...Now that Tyler Thigpen is their starter, people expect the passing offense to be better? I don't see it. They're still going to struggle through the air.

DETROIT LIONS @ BUFFALO BILLS

Line: Bills -1.5

O/U: 45.5

My Pick: Lions +1.5. Detroit wins 17-13.

Result: Bills 14-12

Damn! I wanted to call the Bills' first win - I didn't think this would be it. Expect them to get at least 1 more before the season concludes, simply based on the effort they put forth each game.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ DENVER BRONCOS

Line: Chiefs -1

O/U: 45

My Pick: Chiefs -1. KC Wins 24-20.

Result: Broncos 49-29

God I hate the Broncos. They always pull this crap. they allowed the Raiders to score 59 points on them, yet somehow went out and scored 49 of their own against a team that has had a solid defense thus far, Kansas City. How can they be so bad one week and so good the next? It's mind-boggling.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

Line: Cards -3

O/U: 41.5

My Pick: Seahawks +3. Seattle wins 20-17.

Result: Seahawks 36-18

Arizona is bad. I have no idea how they almost beat the Vikings. Oh wait, yes I do. The Vikings are bad. It's the only logic that makes any sense. Don't get me wrong, though - Seattle isn't any good either.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Line: 49ers -5.5

O/U: 38

My Pick: Rams +5.5. San Fran wins 21-20.

Result: 49ers 23-20

Right again. All season long I've been screwing myself by picking favored teams to win but not to cover. This week it finally started to work! I hate that one of these teams will likely be in the playoffs...

DALLAS COWBOYS @ NEW YORK GIANTS

Line: Giants -14

O/U: 45.5

My Pick: Cowboys +14. I just can't give the G-men 2 touchdowns. NY Wins 30-20.

Result: Cowboys 33-20

I guess coaching does make a difference! The Cowboys are willing to play hard for Garrett. They could end up with 6 or 7 wins. It's not going to be a playoff year in Big D, but maybe they can salvage some pride.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Line: Steelers -4.5

O/U: 45

My Pick: Pats +4.5. Pittsburgh wins 23-20.

Result: Pats 39-26

My bad. I forgot the Pats never lose two in a row...

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Line: Eagles -3

O/U: 42.5

My Pick: Eagles -3. Philly wins 27-13.

Result: Eagles 59-28

I called a lopsided Eagles win, but that was ridiculous! Wow. Now I can't help but wonder how good the Eagles really are. Their defense isn't shockingly good, but it's steady enough to get them to the playoffs, especially with Vick playing like the NFL version of Michael Jordan!

BYES: GB, OAK, SD, NO

Week Ten Preview

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Line: Falcons -1

O/U: 44

The Ravens should be able to shut down Turner, and Ed Reed's return makes their D much more formidable against the pass. The Falcons are good; The Ravens are better.

My Pick: Ravens +1. Baltimore wins 23-20.

NEW YORK JETS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

Line: Jets -3

O/U: 37.5

Rex Ryan will have an excellent game plan to beat his brother. Rob will try to put something together too, but I like Rex better.

My Pick: Jets -3. New York wins 27-17.

HOUSTON TEXANS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Line: Jags -1

O/U: 49.5

Really? The Jaguars are favored? The Texans D has been bad lately, but their offense is good enough to run away with this one.

My Pick: Texans +1. Houston rolls 34-20.

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Line: Bucs -7

O/U: 37

Matt Moore is done for the year, but I don't know if I want to take the Bucs to cover a full touchdown against anybody. They've played some good games, but I just don't trust them. In this case, it's not about trust. It's about the odds. And odds are Jimmy Claussen won't lead the Panthers to the end zone...

My Pick: Bucs -7. Tampa wins 20-9.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ CHICAGO BEARS

Line: Vikings -1

O/U: 40.5

There have been a lot of distractions surrounding the Vikings, but even if the players don't like Childress, Rice's likely return should spark Favre to make some more magic. The Bears are OK, but even coming off a bye I just don't know how much offense they'll put up. Cutler is very hit or miss.

My Pick: Vikings -1. Minnesota wins 23-20.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Line: Colts -7

O/U: 47

Half of Indy's lineup is questionable this week against the Bengals, so I'm not really sure which way to lean. Palmer is a little banged up, though, so I'm not sure how many points the Bengals will be able to score.

My Pick: Bengals +7. Indy is too banged up for me to bet on a blowout. Indy still wins 23-20.

TENNESSEE TITANS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

Line: 0

O/U: 42.5

The Fins can't win at home, and no matter who plays QB for the Titans, they have Chris Johnson running the ball.

My Pick: Titans win 20-17.

DETROIT LIONS @ BUFFALO BILLS

Line: Bills -1.5

O/U: 45.5

Wait, the Bills are favored? Umm...Even without Stafford, the Lions have looked quite good this year. The Bills could pull this off, but I don't think it's their week.

My Pick: Lions +1.5. Detroit wins 17-13.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ DENVER BRONCOS

Line: Chiefs -1

O/U: 45

Denver has been pretty bad, but they are the type of team that steps up and wins when you don't expect them to. Then again, KC has a very good running game (best in the league...), and Denver's run D is the league's second-worst.

My Pick: Chiefs -1. KC Wins 24-20.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

Line: Cards -3

O/U: 41.5

Speaking of games I have no interest in watching...this one is going to be awful. For some reason I think the Seahawks will get it done this week, though I have no explicable basis for that determination.

My Pick: Seahawks +3. Seattle wins 20-17.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Line: 49ers -5.5

O/U: 38

San Francisco still knows how to lose, and the Rams have learned how to win.

My Pick: Rams +5.5. San Fran wins 21-20.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ NEW YORK GIANTS

Line: Giants -14

O/U: 45.5

Wow...who would have imagined this spread when the season started? I'm honestly not sure which way to go with it. On one hand, the team may actually play with some heart for Garrett. On the other hand, the Ginats hate the Cowboys, and would love a chance to blow them out.

My Pick: Cowboys +14. I just can't give the G-men 2 touchdowns. NY Wins 30-20.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Line: Steelers -4.5

O/U: 45

The Pats are coming off an embarassing loss, and will probably put up a good fight. I think the Steelers will win, but only by a field goal.

My Pick: Pats +4.5. Pittsburgh wins 23-20.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Line: Eagles -3

O/U: 42.5

McNabb pulled out the win in his emotional return to Philly, but that was a fluke. Vick has been outstanding, and I expect him to lead the Eagles to victory.

My Pick: Eagles -3. Philly wins 27-13.

BYES: GB, OAK, SD, NO

Week Nine Recap

Week Nine Picks: 5-7-1

Week Nine ATS: 10-3

Overall Picks: 82-48

Overall ATS: 65-60-5

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

Line: Chargers -3

O/U: 50.5

My Pick: Chargers -3. San Diego wins 30-20.

Result: Chargers 29-23

The Chargers are getting better, and are going to challenge for the AFC West. Look out Raiders and Chiefs...

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

Line: Ravens -4.5

O/U: 40.5

My Pick: Ravens 21-0

Result: Ravens 26-10

Close enough. I figured the Fins would struggle against the Ravens' D, and I was right.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

Line: Saints -6.5

O/U: 41

My Pick: Saints -6.5. New Orleans squeaks past the Panthers 17-10.

Result: Saints 34-3

Ok, so it was a total blowout. Still counts as a victory!

NEW YORK JETS @ DETROIT LIONS

Line: Jets -3.5

O/U: 41.5

My Pick: Jets 27-13

Result: Jets 23-20 (ot)

Seriously Jets? Awful. Just Awful. I hate spreads of 3.5...

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Line: Vikings -8.5

O/U: 40

My Pick: Vikings -8.5. The Vikings lay the smackdown on the Cards 34-10.

Result: Vikings 27-24

Seriously Vikings? WTF? The Cardinals? Geez.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Line: Falcons -8

O/U: 44.5

My Pick: Falcons -8. Atlanta rolls 31-13.

Result: Falcons 27-21

Damn kick return TD screwed me out of the spread. Atlanta had this one in hand the whole way and just HAD to let the Bucs beat the spread.

CHICAGO BEARS @ BUFFALO BILLS

Line: Bears -3

O/U: 40.5

My Pick: Bills +3. The Bills get off the schnide with a 13-10 win.

Result: Bears 22-19

I was rewarded for my bold Bills pick with a tie of the spread. I don't think I'll stick with them this week, but I'll bet they win soon.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

Line: Pats -4.5

O/U: 44

My Pick: Pats -4.5. New England wins easily 28-13.

Result: Browns 34-14

No Comment...

NEW YORK GIANTS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Line: Giants -7

O/U: 41

My Pick: Giants -7. New York wins 34-17.

Result: Giants 41-7

Ha! Seattle really is bad. I knew it!

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Line: Eagles -3

O/U: 46.5

My Pick: Eagles -3. A tough choice, but Indy can't win without a run game. Philly wins 31-21.

Result: Eagles 26-24

I never considered the Eagles winning and not covering. Whoops.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

Line: Raiders -1

O/U: 40.5

My Pick: Chiefs +1. I can't believe I'm getting points on this! KC Wins 24-20.

Result: Raiders 23-20 (ot)

What's up with multiple overtime games being decided by the same score? Didn't this happen earlier in the year, too? Answer: Yes. Week 6, Dolphins/Packers and Pats/Ravens both played 23-20 OT games. Weird.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS

Line: Packers -8

O/U: 45.5

My Pick: Packers -8. Green Bay rolls 33-20.

Result: Packers 45-7

So that's what quitting looks like. They'll get better under Garrett...if only because they can't get worse...

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

Line: Steelers -4.5

O/U: 41.5

My Pick: Bengals +4.5. Pittsburgh wins 12-10.

Result: Steelers 27-21

I had to go out on a limb...I guess I got what I deserved.

NFL Week Nine Preview

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

Line: Chargers -3

O/U: 50.5

Being a home underdog does interesting things to the mindset of a good team. Houston qualifies. I'm still not sure San Diego is "over the hump" of playing like idiots, and Houston is due for a win. BUt a quick look at the stats makes me want to reconsider. Almost everyone knows Houston's defense is bad - the worst in the league, actually. So what about San Diego's statistical rankings? They're only 3-5, so they must be struggling offensively and/or defensively, right? What if I told you that, statistically, the Chargers had THE BEST Defense AND Offense in the league? Ridiculous, I know. But the numbers don't lie. I guess I'm taking the Chargers...

My Pick: Chargers -3. San Diego wins 30-20.

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

Line: Ravens -4.5

O/U: 40.5

The Ravens have had a week to reflect on allowing 31 points to the hapless Bills. The Dolphins have been struggling offensively. Those two do not mix well if you're a Miami fan.

My Pick: Ravens 21-0

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

Line: Saints -6.5

O/U: 41

This might as well be a bye week for the Saints given the way the Panthers have been playing lately. But Carolina has the league's 4th best pass defense and the Saints might be looking past this game to their bye week, especially with all of the banged-up personnel they're dealing with.

My Pick: Saints -6.5. New Orleans squeaks past the Panthers 17-10.

NEW YORK JETS @ DETROIT LIONS

Line: Jets -3.5

O/U: 41.5

The Lions have been playing good teams very close all year, so I wish this spread was under a field goal. That said, the Jets' offense laid an egg last week at home and should respond admirably, as they did in week two after a poor opening week performance.

My Pick: Jets 27-13

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Line: Vikings -8.5

O/U: 40

Two schools of thought on this one: The Vikings could be distracted and blow it, or the Vikings could really use a good old-fashioned beat-down to help bring them all back together. Arizona is pretty bad. Especially on the road. I'm picking the latter.

My Pick: Vikings -8.5. The Vikings lay the smackdown on the Cards 34-10.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Line: Falcons -8

O/U: 44.5

That line seems a bit high, but Atlanta did have an extra week to prepare. Every time Tampa has lost this year, they've been routed. But it has only happened twice, so you never know. I just think a well-rested Atlanta is way too tough for them.

My Pick: Falcons -8. Atlanta rolls 31-13.

CHICAGO BEARS @ BUFFALO BILLS

Line: Bears -3

O/U: 40.5

Energized by their bye week and the big waiver pickup of Merriman, I think the Bills will come out swinging once again. Chicago had an extra week to prepare, too, but I am still not sold on them. They've really looked bad at times, but have also had some very positive moments. They may win in blowout fashion, but I really want to "call" the Bills' first win. So I'm going to be picking them whenever I feel it could possibly happen.

My Pick: Bills +3. The Bills get off the schnide with a 13-10 win.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

Line: Pats -4.5

O/U: 44

Manigini will no doubt want to beat the Pats, but I just don't think the Browns have the talent to get it done. Once Brady gets a head of steam, his team can be tough to stop. They've quietly kept winning, and are now the only team in the NFL with just one loss. Amazing, but true.

My Pick: Pats -4.5. New England wins easily 28-13.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Line: Giants -7

O/U: 41

The Giants are 2nd in Total Defense and 3rd in Total Offense. The Seahawks are near the bottom of both categories. But as bad as the Seahawks have played, they seem to pull out big wins at home. A quick check of their schedule, however, provides a little more insight. They beat the 49ers in week one, when everyone thought they were good. Now we know better. They beat the Chargers when San Diego was expected to do big things. Now we know better. And they beat the Cardinals, which, let's face it, was never much of a feat. They looked good when their wins looked good, but can now be viewed as the lower-tier team they truly are. Outclassed by the Giants, I'd be very surprised if they pulled the upset.

My Pick: Giants -7. New York wins 34-17.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Line: Eagles -3

O/U: 46.5

Vick is going to start, so at least this will be an exciting game to watch. I've been criticized for being too hard on the Eagles, who do have some nice wins on their resume. I just don't buy them as a consistent enough team to earn a playoff spot, though I do think they will be in contention for one. They are coming off a bye week, but that's not necessarily a golden ticket. Indy is a good team, and despite injury issues, can still beat the Eagles. With absolutely no running game to switch things up, however, I think they're in trouble, as Vick could do quite well against the Indy D. If Addai plays, Indy wins. But I don't think he'll be ready to go.

My Pick: Eagles -3. A tough choice, but Indy can't win without a run game. Philly wins 31-21.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

Line: Raiders -1

O/U: 40.5

The Raiders' magical mystery tour must come to an end at some point, and I think this could be the week. KC can really run the ball, and Oakland's defense is ranked 29th against the run.

My Pick: Chiefs +1. I can't believe I'm getting points on this! KC Wins 24-20.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS

Line: Packers -8

O/U: 45.5

I don't care what the line is. Dallas has been playing with no passion and no urgency. If they do that again, they'll get trounced by the Packers. Even if they play well, the Pack could still beat em by 8.

My Pick: Packers -8. Green Bay rolls 33-20.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

Line: Steelers -4.5

O/U: 41.5

This one's tricky...the Steelers will likely come out with a ton of intensity after a tough loss in New Orleans, but Cincy tends to get "up" for divisional games like this. In the end, I think Pittsburgh's talent should win them this game, but that Cincy's defense will somehow find a way to step up and keep it close.

My Pick: Bengals +4.5. Pittsburgh wins 12-10.

Byes: DEN, TEN, STL, SF, WAS, JAX

NFL Week Eight Recap

Week Eight Picks: 5-8

Week Eight ATS: 5-8

Overall Picks: 72-45

Overall ATS: 60-53-4

The T.Ocho No...

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

Line: Bengals -1.5

O/U: 43.5

My Pick: Dolphins +1.5. Happy to be getting points on this one. Miami wins 23-17.

Result: Dolphins 22-14

Cincy is playing like the traditional Bengals, and not like the team that won the AFC North last season. TO and Ocho are more of a distraction than an asset, and I think the Bengals are learning that the hard way. Miami has all the pieces to contend in the AFC East, but they need to start scoring more points!

Benched

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ DETROIT LIONS

Line: Lions -1

O/U: 44.5

My Pick: Lions -1. Detroit wins 27-23.

Result: Lions 37-25

McNabb's benching was the only real story that came out of this game. You had to figure they'd lose to the Lions, as the Skins can't seem to beat opponents who they, on paper, should dominate.

I knew it was going to happen at some point...

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ NEW YORK JETS

Line: Jets -5

O/U: 42.5

My Pick: Jets -5. New York's defense impresses in a 24-10 win.

Result: Packers 9-0

I have been worried for weeks that the Jets' O would lay an egg at some point. I just missed the week when it actually happened!

Ok, maybe they're worse than I think...

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

Line: Rams -3

O/U: 37

My Pick: Panthers +3. Carolina wins 17-13.

Result: Rams 20-10

I've been picking Carolina for a few weeks now, and was happy when they finally won. BUt now I've gone a little too far. They're still pretty bad...

Quitters

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ DALLAS COWBOYS

Line: Cowboys -6

O/U: 43.5

My Pick: Cowboys -6. Dallas wins 31-10.

Result: Jaguars 35-17

Yep, it's harsh. But what else do you call a team with all that talent that still manages to lose to a pretty bad Jaguars team in a blowout? They quit. Plain and simple. Romo's gone, and so is every ounce of confidence the Cowboys had. Too bad they don't play the Bills...

So Close...

BUFFALO BILLS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Line: Chiefs -7.5

O/U: 46

My Pick: Bills +7.5. Buffalo wins outright - that's right, I'm calling win #1 - 24-20.

Result: Chiefs 13-10 (ot)

I knew the Bills would put up a fight! Too bad they couldn't convert in OT. Or score more than 10 points...that may have helped too...

London Calling

DENVER BRONCOS @ SAN FRANCiSCO 49ERS

Line: 49ers -1.5

O/U: 42

My Pick: Broncos +1.5. Denver wins 21-17.

Result: 49ers 24-16

I guess all the 49ers have to do to get a win is to play in London. Or to play the Broncos. Either way, things aren't really looking up for them. But who cares - San Fran won the World Series! Nobody's worried about the 9ers right now...

Finally!

TENNESSEE TITANS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Line: Chargers -3.5

O/U: 44.5

My Pick: Chargers -3.5. San Diego wins 21-17.

Result: Chargers 33-25

I guess offloading Merriman worked. They put up a 2-4 record against weak opponents to start, and have now fought to the finish two weeks in a row against solid teams, coming out of it 1-1. I'll bet they still find a way to win the division...they always do!

Not to be

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Line: Pats -5

O/U: 44

My Pick: Vikings +5. They haven't ruled him out, which means he ought to start. Go Vikings! Minny wins outright on sheer emotion, 23-20.

Result: Pats 28-18

I was hoping for magic, and it didn't happen. The Vikings are pretty much done. Favre just doesn't have it this year. And frankly, I think part of it is due to the three players who went to Mississippi to convince him to play. I think he needed to make the decision on his own. Now he's sort of half-hearting it on the field, and it's noticeable.

Ha!

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

Line: Cards -3

O/U: 39.5

My Pick: BUcs +3. Tampa wins 20-17.

Result: Bucs 38-35

Called it! Man, Arizona is bad this year. Though that's compared to the previous few years. Before that they were annually terrible.

Whoops...

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

Line: Raiders -2.5

O/U: 42

My Pick: Seahawks +2.5. Seattle wins 28-20.

Result: Raiders 33-3

Umm...I'm not sure what's gotten into the Raiders, but it's kind of scaring me. Two blowout wins in a row? Who are these guys?

Bounce Back

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Line: Saints -1

O/U: 44

My Pick: Steelers +1. Pittsburgh wins 27-17.

Result: Saints 20-10

I'm amazed that the Saints pulled out a win against the Steelers given all of their injury woes. I know they're good, and I expect them to contend for a trophy once Bush is back, but they've lost to some pretty bad teams lately...

Smooshed

HOUSTON TEXANS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Line: Colts -5.5

O/U: 50

My Pick: Texans +5.5. Indy wins 31-28.

Result: Colts 30-17

I guess I overestimated the Texans ability to score on the Colts and underestimated Peyton's desire to smack the Texans around for beating the Colts on opening weekend. Oh well.