SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ HOUSTON TEXANS
Line: Chargers -3
O/U: 50.5
Being a home underdog does interesting things to the mindset of a good team. Houston qualifies. I'm still not sure San Diego is "over the hump" of playing like idiots, and Houston is due for a win. BUt a quick look at the stats makes me want to reconsider. Almost everyone knows Houston's defense is bad - the worst in the league, actually. So what about San Diego's statistical rankings? They're only 3-5, so they must be struggling offensively and/or defensively, right? What if I told you that, statistically, the Chargers had THE BEST Defense AND Offense in the league? Ridiculous, I know. But the numbers don't lie. I guess I'm taking the Chargers...
My Pick: Chargers -3. San Diego wins 30-20.
MIAMI DOLPHINS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
Line: Ravens -4.5
O/U: 40.5
The Ravens have had a week to reflect on allowing 31 points to the hapless Bills. The Dolphins have been struggling offensively. Those two do not mix well if you're a Miami fan.
My Pick: Ravens 21-0
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS
Line: Saints -6.5
O/U: 41
This might as well be a bye week for the Saints given the way the Panthers have been playing lately. But Carolina has the league's 4th best pass defense and the Saints might be looking past this game to their bye week, especially with all of the banged-up personnel they're dealing with.
My Pick: Saints -6.5. New Orleans squeaks past the Panthers 17-10.
NEW YORK JETS @ DETROIT LIONS
Line: Jets -3.5
O/U: 41.5
The Lions have been playing good teams very close all year, so I wish this spread was under a field goal. That said, the Jets' offense laid an egg last week at home and should respond admirably, as they did in week two after a poor opening week performance.
My Pick: Jets 27-13
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Line: Vikings -8.5
O/U: 40
Two schools of thought on this one: The Vikings could be distracted and blow it, or the Vikings could really use a good old-fashioned beat-down to help bring them all back together. Arizona is pretty bad. Especially on the road. I'm picking the latter.
My Pick: Vikings -8.5. The Vikings lay the smackdown on the Cards 34-10.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
Line: Falcons -8
O/U: 44.5
That line seems a bit high, but Atlanta did have an extra week to prepare. Every time Tampa has lost this year, they've been routed. But it has only happened twice, so you never know. I just think a well-rested Atlanta is way too tough for them.
My Pick: Falcons -8. Atlanta rolls 31-13.
CHICAGO BEARS @ BUFFALO BILLS
Line: Bears -3
O/U: 40.5
Energized by their bye week and the big waiver pickup of Merriman, I think the Bills will come out swinging once again. Chicago had an extra week to prepare, too, but I am still not sold on them. They've really looked bad at times, but have also had some very positive moments. They may win in blowout fashion, but I really want to "call" the Bills' first win. So I'm going to be picking them whenever I feel it could possibly happen.
My Pick: Bills +3. The Bills get off the schnide with a 13-10 win.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
Line: Pats -4.5
O/U: 44
Manigini will no doubt want to beat the Pats, but I just don't think the Browns have the talent to get it done. Once Brady gets a head of steam, his team can be tough to stop. They've quietly kept winning, and are now the only team in the NFL with just one loss. Amazing, but true.
My Pick: Pats -4.5. New England wins easily 28-13.
NEW YORK GIANTS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Line: Giants -7
O/U: 41
The Giants are 2nd in Total Defense and 3rd in Total Offense. The Seahawks are near the bottom of both categories. But as bad as the Seahawks have played, they seem to pull out big wins at home. A quick check of their schedule, however, provides a little more insight. They beat the 49ers in week one, when everyone thought they were good. Now we know better. They beat the Chargers when San Diego was expected to do big things. Now we know better. And they beat the Cardinals, which, let's face it, was never much of a feat. They looked good when their wins looked good, but can now be viewed as the lower-tier team they truly are. Outclassed by the Giants, I'd be very surprised if they pulled the upset.
My Pick: Giants -7. New York wins 34-17.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Line: Eagles -3
O/U: 46.5
Vick is going to start, so at least this will be an exciting game to watch. I've been criticized for being too hard on the Eagles, who do have some nice wins on their resume. I just don't buy them as a consistent enough team to earn a playoff spot, though I do think they will be in contention for one. They are coming off a bye week, but that's not necessarily a golden ticket. Indy is a good team, and despite injury issues, can still beat the Eagles. With absolutely no running game to switch things up, however, I think they're in trouble, as Vick could do quite well against the Indy D. If Addai plays, Indy wins. But I don't think he'll be ready to go.
My Pick: Eagles -3. A tough choice, but Indy can't win without a run game. Philly wins 31-21.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS
Line: Raiders -1
O/U: 40.5
The Raiders' magical mystery tour must come to an end at some point, and I think this could be the week. KC can really run the ball, and Oakland's defense is ranked 29th against the run.
My Pick: Chiefs +1. I can't believe I'm getting points on this! KC Wins 24-20.
DALLAS COWBOYS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
Line: Packers -8
O/U: 45.5
I don't care what the line is. Dallas has been playing with no passion and no urgency. If they do that again, they'll get trounced by the Packers. Even if they play well, the Pack could still beat em by 8.
My Pick: Packers -8. Green Bay rolls 33-20.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
Line: Steelers -4.5
O/U: 41.5
This one's tricky...the Steelers will likely come out with a ton of intensity after a tough loss in New Orleans, but Cincy tends to get "up" for divisional games like this. In the end, I think Pittsburgh's talent should win them this game, but that Cincy's defense will somehow find a way to step up and keep it close.
My Pick: Bengals +4.5. Pittsburgh wins 12-10.
Byes: DEN, TEN, STL, SF, WAS, JAX
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