NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ DETROIT LIONS
Line: Pats -6.5
O/U: 50.5
The Lions have been a pretty solid opponent, usually play hard on Thanksgiving, and have beaten the spread quite a few times this year. The Pats lost big on the road at Cleveland, and though they've beaten some good teams, they haven't played many laughers. I worry that they play down to the competition.
My Pick: Lions +6.5. New England wins 23-20.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ DALLAS COWBOYS
Line: Saints -4.5
O/U: 49.5
The Saints have been very up-and-down this season, so this is actually a tough choice. Dallas is 2-0 under Garrett, and seems to be playing with more heart. I expect them to view Thanksgiving as a chance to redeem themselves in front of the fans. But Nawlins should still be good enough to shut em down.
My Pick: Saints -4.5. New Orleans wins 31-19.
CINCINNATI BENGALS @ NEW YORK JETS
Line: Jets -9
O/U: 43
No explanation needed - this spread is just too big. Cincy blows, but they're still a professional football team. They have the talent to keep the game close. The Jets have 2 OT wins and a last-second TD pass win in their last 3 games. I'm not predicting a blowout.
My Pick: Bengals +9. New York wins 20-17.
GREEN BAY PACKERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
Line: Falcons -1.5
O/U: 47.5
Green Bay has won two blowouts in a row, and may come in overconfident. Atlanta is a good team, and will beat the Packers if Green Bay doesn't show up with its A-game.
My Pick: Falcons -1.5. Atlanta wins 20-13.
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS
Line: Browns -9.5
O/U: 37.5
Easy pick. Carolina is bad, but Cleveland isn't particularly good. They're also starting DelHomme, which could result in 4 INTs and a loss to Carolina. There is no way I can give 9 and a half points to the Browns. Ever.
My Pick: Panthers +9.5. Cleveland wins 20-17.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ NEW YORK GIANTS
Line: Giants -7
O/U: 44
Few teams need a win like the Giants do...they were being touted as one of the league's best teams, and after two division losses now find themselves at 6-4. The Giants have the D-line to keep Garrard off his game, and Eli should be able to have his way with the Jags' secondary. The Jags have no business being above .500, and need to return to earth.
My Pick: Giants -7. New York rolls 33-10.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ BUFFALO BILLS
Line: Steelers -6.5
O/U: 43.5
Buffalo is on a winning streak, so the Steelers better watch out! Just kidding. They're still the Bills.
My Pick: Steelers -6.5. Pittsburgh wins 23-14.
TENNESSEE TITANS @ HOUSTON TEXANS
Line: Texans -6
O/U: 46.5
Both of these teams have fallen on some hard times. The Titans looked phenomenal earlier in the season, but are now losers of 3 straight. The Texans have lost 4 in a row after a solid start, including a win over the Colts on opening day. I expected the Texans to end up around .500 again, but am having trouble seeing that now. The Titans have had a lot of off the field press, and it seems to be hurting their focus. And now, after all the craziness, Rusty Smith is listed as starting QB in Tennessee...who?
My Pick: Texans -6. Houston wins 31-13.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Line: Vikings -1.5
O/U: 44
Like the Cowboys, I think the Vikings will respond well under their new coach. Favre doesn't have to worry about the distraction of not being on the same page with Childress, and he knows Fraser is committed to him.
My Pick: Vikings -1.5. Minnesota wins 24-16.
MIAMI DOLPHINS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS
Line: Raiders -2.5
O/U: 38
Either I am going to learn something this week, or the oddsmakers are crazy. Miami is underachieving at 5-5, and is looking for some wins to get back into the playoff conversation. They also play better on the road. I know the Raiders did some impressive things a few weeks ago, but I'm not sold. It seems odd that they'd be favored, even with Miami's long trip across the country.
My Pick: Dolphins +2.5. Miami wins 23-17.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Line: Chiefs -2
O/U: 44.5
This is another game that KC needs to win if we are going to consider them a legitimate contender. I certainly think they can bring home the W, but they better not underestimate the Seahawks, who play much better at home.
My Pick: Chiefs -2. KC Wins 30-20.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ CHICAGO BEARS
Line: Eagles -3
O/U: 43
The schedulers have outdone themselves. Last week Vick was put up against a very good D-line in New York. This week he goes to Chicago to take on another very good defense. It'll be interesting to see how he picks apart the Bears...
My Pick: Eagles -3. Philly wins 27-14.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
Line: Ravens 7.5
O/U: 42
I guess the oddsmakers don't respect Tampa's 7-3 record either!
My Pick: Ravens -7.5. Baltimore wins 30-10.
ST. LOUIS RAMS @ DENVER BRONCOS
Line: Broncos -3.5
O/U: 44.5
I'm tempted to pick the Rams, simply because they know how to win. But in Denver, with the thinner air, strange things tend to happen.
My Pick: Broncos -3.5. Denver wins 20-16.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Line: Colts -2.5
O/U: 50.5
Ladies and gentlemen, your 6-5 Indianapolis Colts! See, it just doesn't sound right. I know Rivers has been playing well, but on future record alone I just don't see the Colts losing. They've also had good success against the Bolts in Indy.
My Pick: Colts -2.5. Indy wins 31-28.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS
Line: 49ers -1
O/U: 40
Maybe I'm doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result - which is, incidentally, the definition of stupid - but I think Troy Smith gives the 49ers an option that they can win with. I don't know that they will, but they certainly can. And Arizona is atrocious.
My Pick: 49ers -1. San Fran wins 20-17.
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